Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

eagle eye · 13-04-2020 03:26PM

Hobgoblin11 wrote:

Morgan Stanley are predicting the need for rolling lock downs until 2021 when a vaccine should be in circulation

Once a vaccine has been found it takes about 14 months before it's ready for human consumption.
We are also looking for a medicine which stops the virus killing people.
The news from South Korea this morning gives us a great chance of finding a medicine quickly.

giveitholly · 13-04-2020 03:27PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Once a vaccine has been found it takes about 14 months before it's ready for human consumption.
We are also looking for a medicine which stops the virus killing people.
The news from South Korea this morning gives us a great chance of finding a medicine quickly.

Missed that,could you give a quick update?

jimmycrackcorm · 13-04-2020 03:27PM

RobertKK wrote: »

I know some believe it is negative to criticise how Ireland allowed the virus to get so widespread. Some people maybe feel safe in the delusion that Simon Harris and co have 'played a blinder', maybe the untruth gives comfort.
We only played a blinder when compared to the very worst countries, excluding micro nations we are among the worst affected countries population wise in the world.
Compared to some countries who have similar population or a bit bigger, we have hundreds more deaths.
I take it when people compare us to the UK, they simply want to compare to the worst to make Ireland look better. We should not be comparing ourselves to the worse because that should not be our target. We need to compare to the best and then the truth is, we have been letdown badly by the people in charge and it has cost many many lives. We are all putting on the green jersey when we look for the truth and want better for our country.
Saying how great we are doing when the metric used is against the worst performing countries is a recipe for low standards - this does not help us to be better, we need to compare against the best and acknowledge we have not done anything close to what is deemed good.
We are all trying now to get control of the situation, but in the early days, the inaction, no screening, no quarantining, official advise being it was not the department of health's advice to not visit nursing homes and so on, all this has cost lives.

We can be proud that as a people we are working now to save lives, but it doesn't mean we should be applauding ourselves on doing a good job, when the reality is, we were too slow at the start as the people in power were too busy with a general election and the fallout from it.
This has been a massive failure and the inaction and excuses for it have cost lives, and caused many more people to be ill than should have been.
Being afraid to act and not acting earlier is where we have failed as a country.

To me it is positive to state this as we should all want better and not be sticking our heads in the sand because it is easier to think 'we have done great'.

Some people seem to have belief that we could have avoided this altogether had we simply closed off the country. But we were never going to avoid this regardless.
Some think that we could have simply imposed the current restrictions at the start, but people wouldn't have followed them as the situation was not as dire then.
A lot of people have demonstrated a great talent for hindsight.

13-04-2020 03:29PM

RobertKK wrote: »

Norway, Finland, Greece, Israel...a number of EU countries in Eastern Europe who took measures earlier than us to control people entering the country.

Our health minister said it was ok for the Italians to come mostly from Northern Italy and to be out and about in Dublin as the risk was far less than being in a crowded stadium.
There was no social distancing, Dublin has over half of all cases in the country.
No screening or quarantining.

You compare to the worse as it suits your narrative that we are doing as well as anyone. This is only the truth if one sets the bar low, and should we not be looking to compare ourselves to those who make us look better simply because they did a bad job too.

Look at the best and realise the truth, admire the best, want that for Ireland. Not look at such a country doing as badly as we are or worse and then coming to the conclusion that means we are doing as good as anyone - that is not the truth, we are way behind the best in Europe.

I don’t have any narrative. I am comparing to the countries of Western Europe, most like ourselves, open economies, mobile workforce, population of frequent travellers.

otnomart · 13-04-2020 03:30PM

wakka12 wrote: »

I must say Im shocked at Italy and Spain rushing to ease restrictions. Cases and deaths have decreased a lot but still a shocking number of new deaths occurring in both countries daily, 400-600 deaths a day is still an incredible number for the size of these countries

Italy has only allowed only three types of shops (selling: stationary, books and childen clothing) to reopen.
I wouldn't call that: rushing to ease restrictions.
In any case, some Italian regions have regulated in order to still keep them closed.
https://www.ansa.it/english/news/202...d146d1f84.html

Spain is reopening factories and constructions sites. https://english.elpais.com/economy_a...g-workers.html
I agree that is too soon

ACitizenErased · 13-04-2020 03:31PM

Someone mentioned North Korea on here a few pages back. If it spreads there it could genuinely wipe out the whole country. I doubt they have many ventilators, or even a health service for that matter.

AVFC.Stephen · 13-04-2020 03:31PM

Sorry maybe a silly question...

Why do we not show any recovery in the stats compare to other countries?

Like let's say we have 100k infected and with no recovery we have no real number of actually how many are really out there...

If folks take 2 weeks or even a month to get better. Surely we have folks that should be registered as fine now...

ACitizenErased · 13-04-2020 03:32PM

AVFC.Stephen wrote: »

Sorry maybe a silly question...

Why do we not show any recovery in the stats compare to other countries?

Like let's say we have 100k infected and with no recovery we have no real number of actually how many are really out there...

If folks take 2 weeks or even a month to get better. Surely we have folks that should be registered as fine now...

I reckon we have 3/4 thousand 'resolved' (recoveries + deaths) so far.

Dwarf.Shortage · 13-04-2020 03:33PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Someone mentioned North Korea on here a few pages back. If it spreads there it could genuinely wipe out the whole country. I doubt they have many ventilators, or even a health service for that matter.

Their population aren't all over 70 though? Bulk of people who get it are just fine.

To say it could wipe out the country is extreme hyperbole.

Hobgoblin11 · 13-04-2020 03:33PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Once a vaccine has been found it takes about 14 months before it's ready for human consumption.
We are also looking for a medicine which stops the virus killing people.
The news from South Korea this morning gives us a great chance of finding a medicine quickly.

Any Link to this ?

Hobgoblin11 · 13-04-2020 03:34PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Someone mentioned North Korea on here a few pages back. If it spreads there it could genuinely wipe out the whole country. I doubt they have many ventilators, or even a health service for that matter.

its mortality rate is only about 3-10%

BorneTobyWilde · 13-04-2020 03:34PM

CNN pushed for a '' sound-byte'' from Dr Fauci

''If USA were to have shut down in the year 1988, could we have saved lives!!''

Fauci
' well of course if you were to shut down far earlier we would have saved lives, that is a silly question, and true of every country''

All that CNN were doing was looking for a obvious answer from Dr Fauci, trying to place a wedge between him and Trump, have they nothing better to be doing than trying to get their only hope of saving more lives fired by Trump. If Trump does fire him then CNN will be the ones who cost lives.

igCorcaigh · 13-04-2020 03:35PM

AVFC.Stephen wrote: »

Sorry maybe a silly question...

Why do we not show any recovery in the stats compare to other countries?

Like let's say we have 100k infected and with no recovery we have no real number of actually how many are really out there...

If folks take 2 weeks or even a month to get better. Surely we have folks that should be registered as fine now...

Worldometer says only 25 recovered.
Maybe that's because it takes a further test after 2 weeks, and test is in the backlog?

Strazdas · 13-04-2020 03:35PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Where are the hardest hit counties per capita?

According to Worldometers, Spain, Belgium, Italy and France.

Looks lke the UK will catch up with them soon enough.

AVFC.Stephen · 13-04-2020 03:36PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I reckon we have 3/4 thousand 'resolved' (recoveries + deaths) so far.

Could be true but how do we know... it's like the new system of reporting figures for the day... we report what we have and then germany report a number too and we add them. I'm not exactly sure how other countries are doing this but surely it's not random numbers and no recovery either registered.

stephenjmcd · 13-04-2020 03:36PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Worldometer says only 25 recovered.
Maybe that's because it takes a further test after 2 weeks, and test is in the backlog?

Theres much more than 25 recovered. We're not currently publishing recovered figures and there isn't a further test after 2 weeks taken here.

If your at home and have the last 5 days of isolation symptom free your deemed recovered.

ACitizenErased · 13-04-2020 03:36PM

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

its mortality rate is only about 3-10%

You think they have a better immune system than the first world?

eagle eye · 13-04-2020 03:36PM

Strazdas wrote:

According to Worldometers, Spain, Belgium, Italy and France.
Looks lke the UK will catch up with them soon enough.

Counties not countries.

freshpopcorn · 13-04-2020 03:38PM

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13-04-2020 03:38PM

AVFC.Stephen wrote: »

Sorry maybe a silly question...

Why do we not show any recovery in the stats compare to other countries?

Like let's say we have 100k infected and with no recovery we have no real number of actually how many are really out there...

If folks take 2 weeks or even a month to get better. Surely we have folks that should be registered as fine now...

We are not releasing that data. When it appears on worldometers it’s implied from other data, but not official. For example when it was revealed the family of the gp in Clare who got it in Italy had recovered, or in one report where the numbers of recoveries from ICU was discussed. Otherwise, recovery is not being discussed, but there are thousands at this stage you’d imagine.

eagle eye · 13-04-2020 03:39PM

giveitholly wrote:

Missed that,could you give a quick update?

Hobgoblin11 wrote:

Any Link to this ?

This is my third attempt at responding to this. I can't link from the unsupported app on the phone.
Yonhap news agency reported this morning that South Korea had found 38 virus neutralising antibodies.

Just Saying · 13-04-2020 03:39PM

RobertKK wrote: »

I know some believe it is negative to criticise how Ireland allowed the virus to get so widespread. Some people maybe feel safe in the delusion that Simon Harris and co have 'played a blinder', maybe the untruth gives comfort.
We only played a blinder when compared to the very worst countries, excluding micro nations we are among the worst affected countries population wise in the world.
Compared to some countries who have similar population or a bit bigger, we have hundreds more deaths.
I take it when people compare us to the UK, they simply want to compare to the worst to make Ireland look better. We should not be comparing ourselves to the worse because that should not be our target. We need to compare to the best and then the truth is, we have been letdown badly by the people in charge and it has cost many many lives. We are all putting on the green jersey when we look for the truth and want better for our country.
Saying how great we are doing when the metric used is against the worst performing countries is a recipe for low standards - this does not help us to be better, we need to compare against the best and acknowledge we have not done anything close to what is deemed good.
We are all trying now to get control of the situation, but in the early days, the inaction, no screening, no quarantining, official advise being it was not the department of health's advice to not visit nursing homes and so on, all this has cost lives.

We can be proud that as a people we are working now to save lives, but it doesn't mean we should be applauding ourselves on doing a good job, when the reality is, we were too slow at the start as the people in power were too busy with a general election and the fallout from it.
This has been a massive failure and the inaction and excuses for it have cost lives, and caused many more people to be ill than should have been.
Being afraid to act and not acting earlier is where we have failed as a country.

To me it is positive to state this as we should all want better and not be sticking our heads in the sand because it is easier to think 'we have done great'.

It is very easy for people to pick holes in everything that has been done in this country to minimise the effect of the virus.Many of the people whose tendency to do this place them in what I would describe as the Eamonn Dunphy/George Hook category...experts in retrospective genius.
There will also be people who will rush to claim they were right all along and certain things that they said should have been done have been done too late.These people are often of a cautious or negative disposition and have forgotten about the numerous times they predicted the worst and were totally wrong.
Equally there will also be those for whom the long held dislike for various political parties,politicians,Dept of Health or HSE prevent them from being able to make an objective judgement on our performance.

To highlight only one piece from the about contribution it is about using the metric regarding comparison to the worst performing countries.It is quite clear to me that we are using the metric of comparing ourselves to those countries we have most interaction with be it.There are numerous factors why I think we do this.Geography,language,trading partners,where we holiday,where our tourists come from,where our people have emigrated to,comparative standard of living and type of political system all being factors we give weight to in choosing who to compare with.There are probably others but I think these are some of the key means by which we choose countries to compare to.

I am not saying we got everything right and I would be critical of some aspects of our response but overall we have done well and some might say very well.

Hobgoblin11 · 13-04-2020 03:40PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

You think they have a better immune system than the first world?

Even in the worst case scenario only 10% will die anywhere

giveitholly · 13-04-2020 03:41PM

eagle eye wrote: »

This is my third attempt at responding to this. I can't link from the unsupported app on the phone.
Yonhap news agency reported this morning that South Korea had found 38 virus neutralising antibodies.

Ok fair enough,thanks eagle eye,if a medicine can be found did it say how long it would take to be manufactured and brought onto the market?

Rob A. Bank · 13-04-2020 03:41PM

I am sick to death of the scapegoating and unwarranted attacks on the World Health Organization by that dangerous putrid sack of lard in the White House. The attacks are getting more frequent, amplified by his braindead right wing followers who are looking to blame others, in order to deflect attention away from the disastrous US response to the pandemic.

The WHO operates on a tiny budget with an enormous task (less than $5 billion) , compared to the $1.8 trillion spent on arms yearly. Yet they are the world's main defense against pandemics.

The USA pays 15% of their budget of which Congress controls 12%... the fool in the White House controls a grand total of 3%. The Gates Foundation contribute more than Congress does. The figure is less than the cost of a large metropolitan hospital yearly.

Not only do they have to bear verbal attacks from the sickening sh*tforbrains Right Wing, but actual physical attacks on their health workers and the NGO's who co-operate with them...

From 1 January to 21 May 2019, 344 attacks on healthcare were recorded in the Sub Saharan Africa, leading to 53 deaths and 262 injuries of health workers and patients. This data shows an average 17.2 attacks per week, or more than 2.4 attacks per day. Among all 7 countries that have reported attacks in 2019, Ebola-affected areas in DRC have recorded the highest number of attacks, showing the magnitude of the problem faced by health workers in this area.

Collecting data is crucial to understanding patterns. “WHO is a scientific organization. Our job is to understand the problem: how big it is, where it is occurring. So, the world can see the problem and then use that information, together with other United Nations agencies, governments and NGOs, to advocate to stop the attacks,” says Dr Ryan. He knows first-hand what it means to survive an attack. In 1990, as a young doctor, he was held hostage in Iraq.

For Dr Ryan, health systems and health workers are among the bedrocks of society. “Intentional attacks on healthcare are not only intolerable and illegal, but they also strikes at the heart of the community's capacity to survive. Directly targeting people takes away their means to be cured or helped if they become sick or injured,” he says.

https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/taking-risks-to-provide-care-in-a-conflict-zone

Rob A. Bank · 13-04-2020 03:42PM

image.php?type=thumbnail_1024x576&url=3xLP1f_0O6Lr5cO00

Brave men in the middle of an Ebola outbreak rescuing an injured health worker, including Dr. Tedros and our own Dr. Ryan.

Compare them to the fu*kwit right wing assholes led by Trump, who threaten and attack the World Health Organization.

More details (including budget details) on the near impossible task the World Health Organization performs for the world, and the diplomatic nightmare path they have to navigate.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/mission-impossible-who-director-fights-prevent-pandemic-without-offending-china#

tobefrank321 · 13-04-2020 03:42PM

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Some people seem to have belief that we could have avoided this altogether had we simply closed off the country. But we were never going to avoid this regardless.
Some think that we could have simply imposed the current restrictions at the start, but people wouldn't have followed them as the situation was not as dire then.
A lot of people have demonstrated a great talent for hindsight.

Its not hindsight when you have 2 full months of advance notice and two full months of lessons from China, Singapore and Hong Kong before our first confirmed case. Its head in the sand stuff which Harris, Leo, HSE and CMO were all guilty of. Not going to happen here was the attitude they took and their statements from the time support this.

Of course we were not going to avoid this. We could however easily have restricted its entry and spread here to the point that we could have diagnosed almost all positives quickly and contact traced properly, all of which we have been unable to do. When you are only contact tracing weeks old cases from Germany now, you know you've made a balls of it.

zinfandel · 13-04-2020 03:43PM

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Some people seem to have belief that we could have avoided this altogether had we simply closed off the country. But we were never going to avoid this regardless.
Some think that we could have simply imposed the current restrictions at the start, but people wouldn't have followed them as the situation was not as dire then.
A lot of people have demonstrated a great talent for hindsight.

agree, and just because the government did not cancel flights, it did not mean we had to be on them, there were plenty of people still heading off to spain/ france/ Italy on their holibobs in March fully knowing what was going on and no doubt many bringing the virus back with them. Just because the government failed to put very specific restrictions in place on certain things, does not mean we should be free to go off and do things which we full well know is risky. Take responsibility people for yourselves and your families, break the chain and stop the spread...

AVFC.Stephen · 13-04-2020 03:43PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

We are not releasing that data. When it appears on worldometers it’s implied from other data, but not official. For example when it was revealed the family of the gp in Clare who got it in Italy had recovered, or in one report where the numbers of recoveries from ICU was discussed. Otherwise, recovery is not being discussed, but there are thousands at this stage you’d imagine.

Good point...

I think it would give folks less anxiety if they knew the correct number... roughly 10k right now seems a lot more serious than say 7k

eagle eye · 13-04-2020 03:43PM

giveitholly wrote:

Ok fair enough,thanks eagle eye,if a medicine can be found did it say how long it would take to be manufactured and brought onto the market?

No, but that's a huge step and a medicine shouldn't take that long.

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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