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The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

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    #1952
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,364 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    devnull wrote: »
    Which is a sign that there is some distance before the peak then since that I believe is by far the largest number of cases in a single reporting period?

    You'd have to factor in ICU/ventilator/staff availability as 50% of people in ICE with Covid-19 will die. The probability is that availability will decrease further. Regardless, if infection rates increase there will be a commensurate increase in deaths in approximately 18 days time. So the peak for deaths is about 18 days away at the very least.


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    #1953
    Happy4all
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,089 ✭✭✭Happy4all


    devnull wrote: »
    Latest UK Update
    New Cases: 5903
    Total Cases: 47806
    Newly Confirmed Deaths in Hospital: 619

    That new cases stat is huge which is likely to lead to a spike in deaths in coming days I would have thought.

    Bearing in mind Sunday death figures are normally understated as well, these are bad figures.

    Where are the facts to show Sunday figures are understated?


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    #1954
    pablo128
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭pablo128


    Happy4all wrote: »
    Where are the facts to show Sunday figures are understated?

    Post #1945.


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    #1955
    CrabRevolution
    Registered Users Posts: 2,819 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Once people are following the guidelines, there's no issue at all. Several reports suggesting breaches - and need i remind again about building sites which, inexplicably, is within the guidelines.

    But say you have a trail and a few hundred people decide every day what harm if i go and take a stroll there. That's hundreds of people potentially coughing, sneezing, touching railings, gates and other barriers. You start making exceptions and you're redefining the line all the time.
    That's my thoughts too. Once you change the instructions from "Stay at home except for vital journeys" to "Stay at home, unless you decide that it's OK to go out", you may as well have no restrictions at all.

    It's like the "enormous traffic caused by everyone leaving ten minutes early to beat the traffic" phenomenon. If everyone thinks a place will be deserted, they'll all go there....


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    #1956
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    CrabRevolution wrote: »
    That's my thoughts too. Once you change the instructions from "Stay at home except for vital journeys" to "Stay at home, unless you decide that it's OK to go out", you may as well have no restrictions at all.

    It's like the "enormous traffic caused by everyone leaving ten minutes early to beat the traffic" phenomenon. If everyone thinks a place will be deserted, they'll all go there....

    Afaik, the UK doesnt have a 2km limit that we do. I cant see why. So i keep seeing people say its ok to drive so many miles to find a place they can exercise. It shouldn't be. I thought driving was only for essential business, but then exercise is deemed essential, i guess. That just seems confusing and with Ma'am giving her speech later and new directives coming, i think they'll close those loopholes definitively.


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    #1957
    Christy42
    Registered Users Posts: 7,882 ✭✭✭Christy42


    The UK's numbers have been pretty bad but can we go back to the point 5-6 days ago where people were saying the UK deaths would reach 10k within the week?

    The UKs numbers are bad enough without these crazy predictions. Can we stop giving them merit in the future?


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    #1958
    theological
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Afaik, the UK doesnt have a 2km limit that we do. I cant see why. So i keep seeing people say its ok to drive so many miles to find a place they can exercise. It shouldn't be. I thought driving was only for essential business, but then exercise is deemed essential, i guess. That just seems confusing and with Ma'am giving her speech later and new directives coming, i think they'll close those loopholes definitively.

    I walked about 6km at lunchtime myself. Provided one keeps the required distance from other people I don't see the benefit of putting this distance limit in place.

    I hope they don't make it more restrictive than it is now - one because a minority of people shouldn't ruin it for others, two because enforcing the measures that are already in place should be sufficient and three because any tightening will probably stop the measures from being sustainably kept to.

    The monarchy don't usually announce new laws. I suspect the speech will be more ceremonial and motivational rather than legislative. I could be wrong but I doubt it.


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    #1959
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    theological wrote: »
    I walked about 6km at lunchtime myself. Provided one keeps the required distance from other people I don't see the benefit of putting this distance limit in place.

    I hope they don't make it more restrictive than it is now - one because a minority of people shouldn't ruin it for others, two because enforcing the measures that are already in place should be sufficient and three because any tightening will probably stop the measures from being sustainably kept to.

    The monarchy don't usually announce new laws. I suspect the speech will be more ceremonial and motivational rather than legislative. I could be wrong but I doubt it.

    The new directives are coming from the government, or reportedly so anyway. Remains to be seen.

    I think the 2km limit is a good one personlly and feel its actually generous. It concentrates minds. People wont necessarily obey it but it might influence them to not flout it as much as they otherwise might. That'd be my notion of it anyway.


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    #1960
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,237 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    theological wrote: »
    I walked about 6km at lunchtime myself. Provided one keeps the required distance from other people I don't see the benefit of putting this distance limit in place.

    I hope they don't make it more restrictive than it is now - one because a minority of people shouldn't ruin it for others, two because enforcing the measures that are already in place should be sufficient and three because any tightening will probably stop the measures from being sustainably kept to.

    The monarchy don't usually announce new laws. I suspect the speech will be more ceremonial and motivational rather than legislative. I could be wrong but I doubt it.

    It a 2km limit from your house if you swing a circle around your house 2km radius for most of us that allows the vast majority a 10+ km walk without walking over and back the same path. Mind you I know there is no go area's in cities but it is reasonable

    Slava Ukrainii



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    #1961
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users Posts: 19,172 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Christy42 wrote: »
    The UK's numbers have been pretty bad but can we go back to the point 5-6 days ago where people were saying the UK deaths would reach 10k within the week?

    The UKs numbers are bad enough without these crazy predictions. Can we stop giving them merit in the future?


    This link was posted earlier. but shows how the actual number lags behind the reported number
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/why-what-we-think-we-know-about-the-uks-coronavirus-death-toll-is-wrong

    Official number at 5k now. There could be another 1k or 2k on top of that. Granted, not 10k total and an inaccurate prediction but it wouldn't be orders of magnitude off.


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    #1962
    devnull
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,593 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    A Journalist from the Scotsman asked Matt Hancock about the CMO's behaviour in Scotland and how damaging it was and if he would have asked her to consider her permission.

    The journalist asked the UK DCMO if the Scottish CMO is an effective spokesperson and if they had a second home which she visited since the restrictions came in place.

    Hancock suggested that it wasn't a matter for them and was one for the Scottish Government, before quickly closing the press conference down without answering the second question before the UK DCMO could get a word in.

    Wonder if either of them have flouted their own rules too? Didn't seem keen to talk about it.


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    #1963
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 18,749 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Is there a breakdown anywhere or where the cases & deaths are taking place in the UK?
    I know London obviously, but I'm interested in a different part of the country


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    #1964
    devnull
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,593 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    bubblypop wrote: »
    Is there a breakdown anywhere or where the cases & deaths are taking place in the UK?
    I know London obviously, but I'm interested in a different part of the country

    Here:
    https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

    It only includes hospital deaths, not prison, care home or residential deaths.


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    #1965
    devnull
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,593 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    The hospital admission stats are now in for the last 24 hours.

    508403.png

    The downward trend in London has unfortunately been reversed and has seen it's sharpest increase since the start of the outbreak. We will see in coming days if today's were an outlier or the two days of dips were the outliers.

    The full charts will be here later today
    https://www.gov.uk/government/government-efficiency-transparency-and-accountability#policy_and_engagement


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    #1966
    Christy42
    Registered Users Posts: 7,882 ✭✭✭Christy42


    Donald Trump wrote: »
    This link was posted earlier. but shows how the actual number lags behind the reported number
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/why-what-we-think-we-know-about-the-uks-coronavirus-death-toll-is-wrong

    Official number at 5k now. There could be another 1k or 2k on top of that. Granted, not 10k total and an inaccurate prediction but it wouldn't be orders of magnitude off.

    People were going off official figures for that 10k so no lag. I would say double is pretty far off. There is a big difference between 5k and 10k or even 7k and 10k.

    Interestingly the original article didn't make a 10k prediction for the week. It said it a possibility and saying the UK amongst others was on target to hit it in the next week or two. However people wanted to run with the worst case as a guarantee.


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    #1967
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users Posts: 19,172 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Christy42 wrote: »
    People were going off official figures for that 10k so no lag. I would say double is pretty far off. There is a big difference between 5k and 10k or even 7k and 10k.

    Interestingly the original article didn't make a 10k prediction for the week. It said it a possibility and saying the UK amongst others was on target to hit it in the next week or two. However people wanted to run with the worst case as a guarantee.

    I don't remember anyone "wanting to run" with something as a guarantee.
    And who is to know what they meant. I never made any such prediction and I cannot speak as to what others meant if they did.

    In other news, the numbers of deaths from Italy for today is the lowest since March 19th. Hopefully a bit of light at the end of the tunnel for them. Will also give a bit of hope to other countries if they can continue to bring down those numbers.


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    #1968
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    At first glance i thought this was just some stupid flier from some idle journalists, but it turns out to be a demand of 15 idle tory mps of their pm. I dont know all 15, but among them are David Davis, Ian Duncan Smith and Owen Paterson. These lads never take a day off.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1246750522511699970?s=20


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    #1969
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Apparently 5 London bus drivers have died from the virus. Thats desperate and very shocking to hear.


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    #1970
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,364 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    At first glance i thought this was just some stupid flier from some idle journalists, but it turns out to be a demand of 15 idle tory mps of their pm. I dont know all 15, but among them are David Davis, Ian Duncan Smith and Owen Paterson. These lads never take a day off.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1246750522511699970?s=20

    Deflect, deflect, deflect.


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    #1971
    Darc19
    Registered Users Posts: 3,817 ✭✭✭Darc19


    Covid-19,

    What's that? - yesterday's news.

    Good old brits attack Scottish medical chief because she decided to spend a couple of days in her second home less than an hour away.

    OK, she shouldn't have done it, but to effectively be the only story on the news shows the gutter style of the UK's media


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    #1972
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    Deflect, deflect, deflect.

    Yeah, in the midst of an unprecedented crisis and here come these fools writing letters to the pm to make the papers and parade their utter stupidity before the nation. They dont ever stop.


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    #1973
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    At first glance i thought this was just some stupid flier from some idle journalists, but it turns out to be a demand of 15 idle tory mps of their pm. I dont know all 15, but among them are David Davis, Ian Duncan Smith and Owen Paterson. These lads never take a day off.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1246750522511699970?s=20

    We can laugh but there will be a reckoning with China at some point down the line. Not sure what form it'll take mind you other than a push back against the likes of Huawie and a rebalancing of trade and services between the west and the country


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    #1974
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users Posts: 19,172 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Harry Palmr wrote: »
    We can laugh but there will be a reckoning with China at some point down the line. Not sure what form it'll take mind you other than a push back against the likes of Huawie and a rebalancing of trade and services between the west and the country


    sure at those lads not the lads who want to run off and do "free trade" deals (and WTO "deals" as they perceive them to exist) with China after they throw off the shackles of the anti-democratic EU?

    Might not be a good way to open the oul' negotiations lads with a "where is our 400 bn" demand


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    #1975
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    While they're at it they should also fling an oul bill off to Donald for reparations for the "spanish" flu. But seriously, I'm not laughing about this at all. Crisis deepening, government floundering and here's 15 tories writing letters to papers. As prof says above, deflect x 3.


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    #1976
    devnull
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,593 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    At first glance i thought this was just some stupid flier from some idle journalists, but it turns out to be a demand of 15 idle tory mps of their pm. I dont know all 15, but among them are David Davis, Ian Duncan Smith and Owen Paterson. These lads never take a day off.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1246750522511699970?s=20

    Does anyone else think it's highly ironic that the Daily Mail has a spread such as that with one of the headlines being about 'the trail of misinformation' etc?

    I mean, that's something they'd never be guilty of themselves, right? ;)


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    #1977
    AllGunsBlazing
    Registered Users Posts: 3,620 ✭✭✭AllGunsBlazing


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Apparently 5 London bus drivers have died from the virus. Thats desperate and very shocking to hear.

    Scary enough job to be doing right now. They'd come across a lot of potential carriers during the course of a day.


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    #1978
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    AllGunsBlazing wrote: »
    Scary enough job to be doing right now. They'd come across a lot of potential carriers during the course of a day.

    I think i would need some reassurance about protection before I'd even contemplate it. Its just you think of frontline workers and everybody thinks its all doctors, nurses and other health workers. Its so very sad, would have been young(ish) people too I'd imagine.


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    #1979
    meeeeh
    Registered Users Posts: 11,624 ✭✭✭✭meeeeh


    Darc19 wrote: »
    Covid-19,

    What's that? - yesterday's news.

    Good old brits attack Scottish medical chief because she decided to spend a couple of days in her second home less than an hour away.

    OK, she shouldn't have done it, but to effectively be the only story on the news shows the gutter style of the UK's media
    That's not gutter style media. They are pleading with people to stay at home and only go out for short exercise. People are not allowed to travel or stay out in parks, including people living in flats with no gardens or balconies. How can you expect the plebs to obey the rules if those in charge don't?

    She discredited government policy and made it harder to implement any other necessary measures. She should be gone and she is rightly the story of the day.


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    #1980
    silverharp
    Registered Users Posts: 17,849 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    AllGunsBlazing wrote: »
    Scary enough job to be doing right now. They'd come across a lot of potential carriers during the course of a day.

    its also a group that would I guess have higher rate of heart disease etc.

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



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    #1981
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    devnull wrote: »
    Does anyone else think it's highly ironic that the Daily Mail has a spread such as that with one of the headlines being about 'the trail of misinformation' etc?

    I mean, that's something they'd never be guilty of themselves, right? ;)

    Yes! Yes i do. Thats pretty much how i feel every time i break my solemn vow and actually read a piece from that excuse of a newspaper.


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