The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

Joe_ Public

Of course its possible to have sympathy for people but if everybody was to think like Suralan then you'd have the countryside being swamped? Why should he get to be an exception? They should read the interview i saw with an irish guy in china last week who was on day 64 of being locked into his apartment. Things arent that bad yet.

threeball

coastwatch wrote: »

To be clear, the UK advice is 7 days isolation, but continue to isolate if you still have a high temperature, until temperature returns to normal. I think this is the case currently with Boris.

You dont have to continue to isolate if you still have just a cough, which was case with Matt Hancock, seen opening the new hospital in London on Friday.

That information is incorrect. You can continue to infect people for up to 8 days after symptoms pass so Hancock going around spluttering on people means hes actively spreading the virus. If thats the UK position it shows how truly clueless they are. If they can't even follow the correct course of action themselves how can they expect the public to adhere to proper measures.

theological

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Of course its possible to have sympathy for people but if everybody was to think like Suralan then you'd have the countryside being swamped? Why should he get to be an exception? They should read the interview i saw with an irish guy in china last week who was on day 64 of being locked into his apartment. Things arent that bad yet.

I think you're right to an extent. Hence why I would broadly say even in the least dense areas we need to follow it as much as in densely packed areas.

In the scenario that you describe I think people would descend on the most popular beauty spots but probably not on lesser known walking routes.

Really people can just sunbathe on their balconies and in their gardens but I would be seriously annoyed if the government used this as an opportunity to ban walks which are pretty necessary for me given that I'm following the rules.

S.M.B.

bilston wrote: »

Are in the UK or Ireland? If you are in the UK you are absolutely allowed to walk in the park.

If you are in Ireland as long as it is within 2kms of your house then you are fine. (I live in NI so I think that this is right).

You shouldn't suffer because of others.

I sympathise with the problem the UK govt faces with people flouting the restrictions, but punishing the vast vast vast majority of people who are adhering to the restrictions (and they are) is not a good outcome and will probably lead to more people flouting govt restrictions.

I'm in the UK, not too far from Brockwell Park which has resulted in this being a big news story today.

Got babies GP appointment tomorrow so will be asking for their professional opinion on what's essential.

We've been out and about but just don't want to flock to our nearest green space the moment the weather decided to improve as if everybody did this we'd all struggle.

theological

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Of course its possible to have sympathy for people but if everybody was to think like Suralan then you'd have the countryside being swamped? Why should he get to be an exception? They should read the interview i saw with an irish guy in china last week who was on day 64 of being locked into his apartment. Things arent that bad yet.

My suspicion is that less will be tolerated in Western democracies. Hence why the government need to be careful to ensure public consent for these measures even when legally enforced.

Sensible restrictions which avoid draconian and counterproductive measures like banning exercise will keep the public onboard for longer.

It is also important to ensure that the UK and other countries don't end up with a mental health crisis or even with widescale physical health problems afterwards due to extreme measures like preventing exercise.

Killing the virus is the first priority. In order to do that I think avoiding fatigue with these measures is key and avoiding extremes is how the government can do this.

While they have the government support they need to be flat out at work to ensure that the mass testing is in place and there is a clear strategy for gradually easing the measures by the end of May in my mind. The lockdown simply is to buy time. The time that is bought needs to be used well now because the public probably won't be so forgiving in a few months and we need to do ensure that buy-in lasts because laws can only be so effective. This is probably why behavioural science is important as a secondary strand of research to the actual cure for the virus at this stage.

Ensuring buy in for these measures long term is going to be tricky in Western democracies.

Joe_ Public

There's another reason they should be strict on the countryside rambling in that rural populations tend to be older so they are more vulnerable to risk. Even if that risk is smaller, the potential consequences are more severe. I'm reading plenty of reports from the US documenting the spread to rural locations - but with no restrictions at all in lots of those places.

I guess people need to use common sense and civic spirit. Not just protecting their own health, but not selfishly exposing others to risk. Its a shame the leaders arent inspiring in this regard, but if the lockdown isnt working effectively then i think they have to start thinking about more strict enforcement.

theological

Joe_ Public wrote: »

There's another reason they should be strict on the countryside rambling in that rural populations tend to be older so they are more vulnerable to risk. Even if that risk is smaller, the potential consequences are more severe. I'm reading plenty of reports from the US documenting the spread to rural locations - but with no restrictions at all in lots of those places.

I guess people need to use common sense and civic spirit. Not just protecting their own health, but not selfishly exposing others to risk. Its a shame the leaders arent inspiring in this regard, but if the lockdown isnt working effectively then i think they have to start thinking about more strict enforcement.

I don't think taking a walk where you can't see another soul on official walking routes is exposing people to significant risk. As I say on my walk yesterday it took me through several fields. Bar touching turnstiles to go in and out of sections the risk is fairly miniscule and then people should wash their hands and they shouldn't touch their face until they have washed their hands. Given that I've been indoors all week without contact with anyone else for several weeks bar shopping every fortnight the likelihood that I've been dropping the virus on the walk whilst seeing nobody in the field is incredibly slim.

It would be a shame if all forms of exercise were banned and I'm not sure people would comply for long. The rules have to be balanced and reasonable for them to be effective. As I say buy in to the measures is important. Extreme measures probably will cause people to go down the law is an ass form of thinking.

The first port of call must be to punish people who aren't complying.

devnull

We may see a fall in numbers today, but I wouldn't read too much into it.

There's been a noticeable pattern that in weekend figures have tended to be less than the ones during the week, with a sharp increase then early in the week, which I would assume is because that not all weekend deaths are being reported until the following week.

theological

devnull wrote: »

We may see a fall in numbers today, but I wouldn't read too much into it.

There's been a noticeable pattern that in weekend figures have tended to be less than the ones during the week, with a sharp increase then early in the week, which I would assume is because that not all weekend deaths are being reported until the following week.

If the graph you shared yesterday on hospital admissions is correct then hopefully we should start seeing the plateau in London start to have an effect on the death figures in the next 7 to 10 days. The next task will be getting the Midlands to follow the same trajectory.

devnull

theological wrote: »

If the graph you shared yesterday on hospital admissions is correct then hopefully we should start seeing the plateau in London start to have an effect on the death figures in the next 7 to 10 days. The next task will be getting the Midlands to follow the same trajectory.

There might be a plateau in London but the increase in hospital admissions and cases elsewhere in the country is greater than the decline in London.

Whilst London is falling, all other areas are up, including Midlands is up 47% and Yorkshire and the North East had risen by 35%, but it's wrong to read too much into those figures, we'll have to see how the next few days are with numbers to see if it's a consistent thing.

Joe_ Public

theological wrote: »

I don't think taking a walk where you can't see another soul on official walking routes is exposing people to significant risk. As I say on my walk yesterday it took me through several fields. Bar touching turnstiles to go in and out of sections the risk is fairly miniscule and then people should wash their hands and they shouldn't touch their face until they have washed their hands. Given that I've been indoors all week without contact with anyone else for several weeks bar shopping every fortnight the likelihood that I've been dropping the virus on the walk whilst seeing nobody in the field is incredibly slim.

It would be a shame if all forms of exercise were banned and I'm not sure people would comply for long. The rules have to be balanced and reasonable for them to be effective. As I say buy in to the measures is important. Extreme measures probably will cause people to go down the law is an ass form of thinking.

The first port of call must be to punish people who aren't complying.

Once people are following the guidelines, there's no issue at all. Several reports suggesting breaches - and need i remind again about building sites which, inexplicably, is within the guidelines.

But say you have a trail and a few hundred people decide every day what harm if i go and take a stroll there. That's hundreds of people potentially coughing, sneezing, touching railings, gates and other barriers. You start making exceptions and you're redefining the line all the time.

theological

devnull wrote: »

There might be a plateau in London but the increase in hospital admissions and cases elsewhere in the country is greater than the decline in London.

Whilst London is falling, all other areas are up, including Midlands is up 47% and Yorkshire and the North East had risen by 35%

Yes. The other regions are behind London in their spread but hopefully the measures will have an impact on the admissions in other regions over the same period. I think in the next week to 10 days we'll see the admissions steady. I could be wrong but once we get to that position the next step will be managing it until it clears.

Perhaps I'm engaging in unicorn thinking but I don't think I am.

devnull

In Scotland, the Chief Medical Officer has had a visit from HM Constabulary
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-police-warn-scottish-medical-chief-catherine-calderwood-after-holiday-home-visit-11968845

theological

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Once people are following the guidelines, there's no issue at all. Several reports suggesting breaches - and need i remind again about building sites which, inexplicably, is within the guidelines.

But say you have a trail and a few hundred people decide every day what harm if i go and take a stroll there. That's hundreds of people potentially coughing, sneezing, touching railings, gates and other barriers. You start making exceptions and you're redefining the line all the time.

Walking is acceptable according to the guidance provided people are at the correct distance.

There is a risk anywhere that if I touch something and then touch my face that I could get the virus. So being cognisant to that risk that means I should avoid touching my face. Being outside at all is in a sense a risk but getting outside is necessary.

Saying we can go for a walk in the countryside isn't an exception. It is following the rules. It is going outside and meeting people or sunbathing or anything else that is a violation.

Ensuring people can last the course is important right now. Draconian edicts like saying people can't exercise are not going to help people to last this out sustainably. And lasting it our sustainably is actually going to be what saves lives over the next few weeks.

Edit: I agree driving to places to then walk should be discouraged heavily.

meeeeh

threeball wrote: »

That information is incorrect. You can continue to infect people for up to 8 days after symptoms pass so Hancock going around spluttering on people means hes actively spreading the virus. If thats the UK position it shows how truly clueless they are. If they can't even follow the correct course of action themselves how can they expect the public to adhere to proper measures.

Actually I read some where that you can shead virus but it is not clear if that is live virus or just body getting rid of dead virus cells.

While Brits might well be wrong there is a chance immunologists have a bit more knowledge and understanding of the issue than someone on the internet. My personal belief is it's better to be sure and wait 14 says. However won't pretend I have any knowledge on the issue and call others who get advice from experts issue clueless.

A Dub in Glasgo

devnull wrote: »

In Scotland, the Chief Medical Officer has had a visit from HM Constabulary
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-police-warn-scottish-medical-chief-catherine-calderwood-after-holiday-home-visit-11968845

I think her position is untenable and the usual rabble in Scotland are calling for her head. Would be a shame as she was doing a reasonable job

Idiotic of her though and I am amazed she did not see the consequences if caught

devnull

Today's UK Figures have been delayed.

https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1246787989075828741

Joe_ Public

theological wrote: »

Walking is acceptable according to the guidance provided people are at the correct distance.

There is a risk anywhere that if I touch something and then touch my face that I could get the virus. So being cognisant to that risk that means I should avoid touching my face. Being outside at all is in a sense a risk but getting outside is necessary.

Saying we can go for a walk in the countryside isn't an exception. It is following the rules. It is going outside and meeting people or sunbathing or anything else that is a violation.

Ensuring people can last the course is important right now. Draconian edicts like saying people can't exercise are not going to help people to last this out sustainably. And lasting it our sustainably is actually going to be what saves lives over the next few weeks.

Edit: I agree driving to places to then walk should be discouraged heavily.

Yeah, we're not disagreeing. I'm obviously talking about people who think they can make themselves an exception and flout the guidelines. Once they are followed there is no problem.

The issue in rural areas is people feeling a false sense of security, seeing no risk. I was struck reading about this 700 strong village in Yorkshire earlier. They've had no cases as of yet but are living in fear that they will. That fear might just be their best weapon.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-floods-fishlake-covid-19-ironbridge-a9438566.html

droidman123

Seth Brundle wrote: »

14 days is recommended by the WHO.
7 days is recommended by the UK, but I don't know or understand why.

Because the uk is better than the rest of the world

devnull

Latest UK Update
New Cases: 5903
Total Cases: 47806
Newly Confirmed Deaths in Hospital: 619

That new cases stat is huge which is likely to lead to a spike in deaths in coming days I would have thought.

Bearing in mind Sunday death figures are normally understated as well, these are bad figures.

meeeeh

devnull wrote: »

Latest UK Update
New Cases: 5903
Total Cases: 47806
Newly Confirmed Deaths: 619

That new cases stat is huge which is likely to lead to a spike in deaths in coming days I would have thought.

I think they are testing a bit more so that will result in higher numbers of infected. I think there will be raise in numbers tomorrow because the pattern seems to be that they under report for the weekend.

Joe_ Public

devnull wrote: »

Latest UK Update
New Cases: 5903
Total Cases: 47806
Newly Confirmed Deaths in Hospital: 619

That new cases stat is huge which is likely to lead to a spike in deaths in coming days I would have thought.

Bearing in mind Sunday death figures are normally understated as well, these are bad figures.

I could be wrong but i thought it was the reported figure on mondays that has tended to be significantly lower and then rising sharply on the tuesday.

threeball

meeeeh wrote: »

I think they are testing a bit more so that will result in higher numbers of infected. I think there will be raise in numbers tomorrow because the pattern seems to be that they under report for the weekend.

Sturgeon just said her numbers for today and tomorrow are artificially low due to a change in reporting proceedures.

devnull

meeeeh wrote: »

I think they are testing a bit more so that will result in higher numbers of infected. I think there will be raise in numbers tomorrow because the pattern seems to be that they under report for the weekend.

Nicola Sturgeon has now said that Scotland figures will be artificially low until Tuesday when non reported deaths from the weekend will show up as their system cannot deal with all deaths at a weekend and the reporting of them.

It will be the same for England, Wales and Northern Ireland too, deaths from the weekend reported on Monday will only show up on Tuesday's figures where there may well be a sharp increase.

There's a good chance that yesterday would have been a new record if all deaths had been reported straight away, so those pointing towards the curve being flattened are getting ahead of themselves.

Professor Moriarty

devnull wrote: »

Latest UK Update
New Cases: 5903
Total Cases: 47806
Newly Confirmed Deaths in Hospital: 619

That new cases stat is huge which is likely to lead to a spike in deaths in coming days I would have thought.

Bearing in mind Sunday death figures are normally understated as well, these are bad figures.

The death rate takes 18 days from onset of symptoms to catch up with the infection rate.

devnull

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I could be wrong but i thought it was the reported figure on mondays that has tended to be significantly lower and then rising sharply on the tuesday.

There's been a drop off on both the figures released on Sunday and Monday.

Have to remember the figures today are only those hospital deaths recorded up to 5pm on Saturday and Monday figures will only be hospital deaths recorded up until 5pm on Sunday. Tuesday's figures will include all those weekend hospital deaths reported up to 5pm on Monday.

devnull

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The death rate takes 18 days from onset of symptoms to catch up with the infection rate.

Which is a sign that there is some distance before the peak then since that I believe is by far the largest number of cases in a single reporting period?

Seth Brundle

Sturgeon is backing the CMO

meeeeh

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The death rate takes 18 days from onset of symptoms to catch up with the infection rate.

Yes but british infection rates are fairytale numbers considering their testing failures.

theological

devnull wrote: »

Which is a sign that there is some distance before the peak then since that I believe is by far the largest number of cases in a single reporting period?

It depends on which peak you are talking about. For me I see three types to follow.
1. Peak in new cases.
2. Peak in admissions.
3. Peak in deaths.

We're some way from a peak in deaths. A peak in new cases is tricky because we've not identified all of the cases, so it is possible that as testing improves there will be an increase in cases but this doesn't mean that it is peaking it just means that more are being identified.

I think the more accurate ones to watch would be the peak in admissions and deaths. I'm optimistic that the plateau in admissions in London will mean a flattening in deaths in the next 10 days or so, but you're right to say that other regions are still on the way up.