CoVid-19 Part VII - 169 cases ROI (2 deaths) 45 in NI (as of 15 March) *Read OP*

[O] Well if the rumours of the intense lockdown are true then it is great news. If Ireland is locked down as tightly as the rumour suggests it will reduce the spread hugely and significantly lower mortality in Ireland over coming weeks and months. And just to put this out there so that it can be timeposted so people can point to this when the worry and conspiracy begins I want to add the following...

[F] We will CONTINUE to see increases in confirmed tests for at least the next 14 days and increased absolute mortality and mortality rate for up to a month EVEN if the lockdown is a massive success.

[F] The reasons for this are as follows:
[F] a) Incubation period for most people is less than 7 days but for almost everyone (or everyone, we're not sure) is about 14 days so people infected today may only develop symptoms on 30th March (roughly).

[F] b) From onset of symptoms to death varies a lot but a figure from Italian doctors I've seen which seems reasonable is about 12 to 18 days if ventilated. The average may well be less if you need but don't get ventilated. So people who get it on 15th March and are symptomatic on the 30th March may not, on average, die till 17th April.

[F] We don't have reliable pools of large data on this virus and illness so these figures are only best guesses by doctors and then my extrapolation of what those numbers mean. The key takehome message is that it won't be obvious if this lockdown has worked for about a month. So, patience, always patience.

[F]Obviously medics etc will be able to see trajectories begin changing before then...

[O] but when you have friends and family argue that the absolute infection and death numbers and rates of infection and death are continuing to climb so the lockdown isn't working and they're going to be idiots and go out and about feel free to quote this with the timestamp so that they will realise that their understanding of epidemiology and disease progression is horribly flawed, this is complex stuff and they need to simmer down.


ANYTHING which prevents the mass spread which was inevitably going to happen on St Patrick's Day is to be welcomed. We would have a MUCH worse problem with a lockdown on the 18th than a lockdown originating on the the 17th or 18th. So, this is GREAT news. Thursday reduced our total number of deaths over the next year a lot. This will reduce it even more. Between Thursday and tomorrow the state has taken steps which will save tens of thousands of lives over the next year. This is wonderful news and we must ALL support the state ( but especially health workers, Gardai, Army, Fire Brigade) and workers in essential services ( Pharmacies, the Post Office, Supermarkets, Food Delivery, Waste Removal etc ) over the coming weeks and months.


TLDR: If there is a lockdown and it is strict then this is great news but it needs to be for just over a month to be effective. It'll probably be for a fortnight and weekly review initially though so as not to panic people... but the epidemiology of incubation periods and the stats re: the illness progression argue for roughly a 32 day lockdown as a minimum in order for it to be effective.


TLDR2: Will there be a lockdown? I have no personal knowledge of this as I haven't been briefed one way or the other so I feel free to speculate here. If I knew I wouldn't tell you. With that said I would be very surprised, at this stage, if the country isn't locked down for a period of time which will be extended to at least a month and almost certainly longer if deemed necessary) starting at midnight on Monday or Tuesday morning (I don't know which).

Goldengirl wrote: »

Most attended Mass no matter how sick they were?

There was a general election in the middle of it as well. And we were fighting the brits too.

At least we don’t have a war of independence running concurrently with this epidemic.

Sober Crappy Chemis wrote: »

Yep. Trump mentioned it at the press conference.

He said Beasty is a great guy doing a fantastic job and we are lucky to have great people like Beasty helping win the war against Covid-19.

Hadleigh Putrid Stepfather wrote: »

Zero new confirmed cases in the USA in the last 24 hours, according the today's WHO Situation Report. Confirmed is .post definitely the operative word.

Holiday destinations like Las Vegas must be riddled with it, people handling playing cards, using slot machines, eating from buffets etc will spread it like wildfire through the casinos and hotels.

Cypher_sounds wrote: »

Heated debate going on sky news right now.

I know that loathsome tit Brendan O'Neill trying to weasle his way out of politicising the thing

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

Another thing that worries me is the reality of economics and how it isn't as simple as people think just to shut down various places.

All these at risk groups such as the elderly, disabled etc rely on benefits to keep them alive. If non essentials roles are locked down I don't know what will happen to these things with a reduced tax rate that will make the recession look like a laugh

Gardai, healthcare workers etc may volunteer to keep working without pay but what about the various supplies needed to aid them.

As said this is coming from my view that a 2/3/4 week lockdown is grand in theory but I'm astonished at the amount of people I've been talking to that believe this magically means it will allow the virus to "blow over" once lockdown is lifted it only takes a handful to start another blitz of it again

Can we handle possible months of continuous lockdowns? I don't know

They did in China Lurgan Klopp. And it appears to be working for them so that's the way to go.

solidasarock wrote: »

I am more scared of how people are going to react with incoming restrictions then I am about getting the virus.

For us that are not social creatures it will be probably easy, for the ones that have to be out socialising it will be hard and I can see people not obeying it