CoVid-19 Part VII - 169 cases ROI (2 deaths) 45 in NI (as of 15 March) *Read OP*

Pseudonym121

Deleted User wrote: »

Not understanding you here?? Are you saying the incubation period (time for exposure to onset of visible symptoms) is 7 days or 14 days for most?

Johns Hopkins was saying the median incubation period was 5.1 days with 97% showing symptoms by day 11.

Yeah this is where statistics and the fact that this is new confuses things.

[F] It appears that the MEDIAN incubation period is 5 to 7 days. You can basically take that MEDIAN and rock through a couple of standards deviations to show that the 97% confidence interval for incubation is somewhere between 10 to 14 days.

[F] I am going with 14 days for my calculations because I want to add in a margin of error which errs on the side of caution.

[F] So, sure it might well be 11 days and not 14 but:
[F] a) 1.5% of people are going to incubate for longer than 11 days in that case - so a margin of safety is a good idea there and
[F] b) maybe it is 11 days. No-one knows for sure now so a margin of safety seems like a smart idea to me.

TLDR: No-one knows, half of all people seem to develop symptoms by Day 6 but this is NOT a time to go with minimum numbers. This is, in my opinion, a time to build in a nice margin of safety.

P.s. Also please remember the Median and the Average are quite different. The Median may be 5 but the Average is almost certainly longer. A lot of people don't understand the difference and this adds to confusion.

Ulysses Gaze

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel

No love for Teldar Paper?

RocketRaccoon

Duke of Url wrote: »

What do they produce in the factory?

Smoke / carbon monoxide alarms.

Beasty

Blueshoe wrote: »

I can't understand why people are talking about the army getting involved?.

Sure what are they going to do! Farcical. The general public again being shown up as idiots

It's been mentioned in the press they are lined up to help out from tomorrow morning. Don't think they'll need their guns to man telephone lines and provide other logistical help. Many member of the defence forces have skills that will be very useful in these circumstances, and their skills are much better being put into use than hanging round barracks and/or self-isolating

niallo27

I posted this last night but i think it was lost but is it not odd that only 20% on the princess cruise tested postive even though more than likely more than 80% to 90% should have been. It was rampant on it.

Hobgoblin11

Bob24 wrote: »

Maybe people wondering why the hell the Fed is making yet another emergency decision even though their next regular meeting is scheduled very soon (Tuesday I believe).

I certainly do wonder - there must be something very wrong in the US financial plumbing (repos have also rampes up like crazy).

The repo market has been skating on thin ice for months

igCorcaigh

RocketRaccoon wrote: »

I'm in aviation, I'm in serious trouble.

She is a manufacturing supervisor, if they were to close for 2-3 weeks it wouldn't affect the company or business at all.

I feel really lucky to have started a new job in January. My partner is a chef and out of work from tomorrow. If both of us were out of work, we would not be able to pay the rent.

I'm working from home now. IT industry.

fritzelly

Temple Bar deserted

https://www.earthcam.com/world/ireland/dublin/?cam=templebar

Mr E

Mod: This thread was going to pass 10k overnight, so I've started Thread VIII early. No point in making the hamsters sick too.