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CoVid-19 Part VII - 169 cases ROI (2 deaths) 45 in NI (as of 15 March) *Read OP*

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    #8882
    sink
    Registered Users Posts: 4,314 ✭✭✭sink


    I see a lot of criticism of Governments not closing down flights or shutting borders, and using common sense that would seem logical. However when you examine the problem using epidemiological mathematical modelling it will show that closing borders has a limited effect in the basic reproduction number of infection (aka R0), which is really the only factor we are trying to control. By lowering the R0 we give our health service the time to treat patients without being overwhelmed and therefore increase the survivability rate and have better outcomes for patients overall, this we all know by now is termed 'flattening the curve'.

    So why don't borders work? To start with borders can not be perfectly sealed, unless we want to become an even more totalitarian state than North Korea some people will cross them. One example is we need to import many essential goods and raw material such as oil in order to keep society functioning and this has to be done by people. With the profile of this disease it is impossible to properly screen for it as many are infected are asymptomatic. So cutting off contact from the outside world entirely is impossible even in the short term.

    Once the virus is in the community it doubles infections every 3-4 days in populations where no internal controls are in place. This is what is known as exponential growth, simply put the more infected there are the faster new people get infected. Uncontrolled spread within the community with quickly outpace the number of infected coming from outside the community, even if you pack every jet and ferry with 100% infected people, left uncontrolled the community transmissions would dwarf them in a matter of weeks even if started with just one infected person.

    So we need to focus on slowing the spread within the community, and the only method we have to do this is social distancing. Social distancing techniques work for those people arriving into the country as well, following proper guidelines they won't infect more people than anyone else already in the community. Jets and ferries should limit their capacities so people are kept a safe distance, exceptions can be made for family units of course.

    The Washington Post have an excellent article which show these epidemiological models working in real time, I highly recommend looking at it to get a better understanding of what I'm talking about.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/


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    #8883
    Achasanai
    Closed Accounts Posts: 730 ✭✭✭Achasanai


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    I realise this may be a weird thing to post about but I've decided to try and watch the boys in green first episode on the rte player and of all things to see on there was all 15 seasons on ER. why ?


    To be fair, you won't be watching anything on the RTÉ Player as it's shíte, so doesn't matter what's available.


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    #8884
    bodhrandude
    Registered Users Posts: 12,465 ✭✭✭✭bodhrandude


    holyhead wrote: »
    Multiple retailers non food have started announcing shutdowns here. There is no vaccine against this and as we are wisely looking to avoid herd immunity it would suggest a slow burning situation. If the shutdown last more than a month you could be looking at an economic depression.

    Who cares, it can and will recover again.

    If you want to get into it, you got to get out of it. (Hawkwind 1982)



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    #8885
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,687 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Is anyone else a bit scared?


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    #8886
    namloc1980
    Registered Users Posts: 18,142 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    WhiteMemento9 wrote: »
    Has anyone been having problems with making and receiving calls during this week? Networks apparently having awful diffculity in coping with the demand due to people working from home. That is only going to increase next week.

    No problems here on eir.


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    #8887
    WhiteMemento9
    Registered Users Posts: 1,573 ✭✭✭WhiteMemento9


    aligator_am wrote: »
    Yep, the Three network was having a right auld speed wobble.

    You may expect it ramp up next week, we spent most of last week just setting up VPNs and selling laptops to panicing customers as they need to work from home.

    I have been told that if three woobles it isn't something they can cope with the medium term fixing and will continue to happen due to capcity issues.


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    #8888
    Ger Roe
    Registered Users Posts: 2,114 ✭✭✭Ger Roe


    WhiteMemento9 wrote: »
    I know people on other networks who have had problems with phone calls going to voicemails, phone not ringing and having to make multiple attempts at calls. I am Vodafone and have had those issues and I know someone on Tesco/Three who said they are having similar problems.

    Mobile phones are not the best things to use in a widespread crisis. There are a limited amount of line connections available per cell and in the case where everyone wants to use it, there will be drop outs and non connects.

    In these parts, when it snows on the N11 and you are running late for an appointment, you can't make a call.... because everyone else is trying to do the exact same thing at the same time.

    This is where the good old landline comes into it's own. Much more reliable in a crisis - providing you have one within arms reach.


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    #8889
    macnug
    Registered Users Posts: 619 ✭✭✭macnug


    ChikiChiki wrote: »
    Thing is spreading. Heard of a case popping up in the most rural of spots and no connections to Northern Italy/China. A person over 80 too.

    Not really a surprise.

    Do they have a home carer by any chance?


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    #8890
    daheff
    Registered Users Posts: 5,851 ✭✭✭daheff


    Panrich wrote: »
    At least 50 more.

    I don't think we should now be guessing at the next set of numbers.(guilty in the past myself)....it's only a small skip to guessing the numbers of dead...which is way too grim to contemplate


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    #8891
    Irish_peppa
    Registered Users Posts: 653 ✭✭✭Irish_peppa


    Are standard dust masks of any use or a waste of time if going down the shops?:confused:


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    #8892
    Achasanai
    Closed Accounts Posts: 730 ✭✭✭Achasanai


    Drumpot wrote: »
    I see the special cases from temple bar last night made it into the C4 news. That’s next level muppetry to be fair. :pac:


    Which is a bit rich from C4 News as they've been having feckin marathons over there.


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    #8893
    New Home
    Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 76,649 Mod ✭✭✭✭New Home


    Signore Fancy Pants wrote: »
    Mak!!!!!

    We were told not to say anything until 11:01 on Tuesday morning!!

    Whatsapp screenshot or it didn't happen!:cool:


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    #8894
    WhiteMemento9
    Registered Users Posts: 1,573 ✭✭✭WhiteMemento9


    Ger Roe wrote: »
    This is where the good old landline comes into it's own. Much more reliable in a crisis - providing you have one within arms reach.

    What is a landline? Did they use these in the olden days? Do we still have them?


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    #8895
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,689 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Achasanai wrote: »
    To be fair, you won't be watching anything on the RTÉ Player as it's shíte, so doesn't matter what's available.

    Well I said in my post I tried and well it didn't work past the four ads.


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    #8896
    daheff
    Registered Users Posts: 5,851 ✭✭✭daheff


    Irish_peppa wrote: »
    Are standard dust masks of any use or a waste of time if going down the shops?:confused:

    Better than nothing. Will provide some minor protection against droplets....but not 100%


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    #8897
    Syncpolice
    Closed Accounts Posts: 245 ✭✭Syncpolice


    quartz1 wrote: »
    Can Ireland do anything to make use of the Hospital Ventilators been manufactured here by Multinational Companies ......are there Staff capable of using them if they had the machines ..... perhaps I am been simplistic

    Up the price of them


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    #8898
    JRant
    Registered Users Posts: 12,905 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    I think in general we are in a good place as a country right now. No sense of overall panic and the vast majority of people keeping their distance from others. A couple of pubs full of Yahoo's does not a country make.

    There is absolutely no need to close everything down right now. People who can't work from home should use their own common sense and kept going about their business as carefully as possible.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



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    #8899
    ChikiChiki
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,950 ✭✭✭ChikiChiki


    Stheno wrote: »
    Is anyone else a bit scared?

    I'm accepting of the situation. Was far more worried two weeks ago when most of the public were none the wiser of this impending threat. Think I'm resilient having had a pretty tough 32 years so far.

    What will be will be, its out of our control for the most of us.


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    #8900
    gifted
    Registered Users Posts: 4,888 ✭✭✭gifted


    Stheno wrote: »
    Is anyone else a bit scared?

    Scared of catching it?

    Scared of the economy?

    Scared of losing your job?

    Scared of no food on the shelves?



    I'm scared of 3 of the 4 above...

    Taking the right precautions so confident of not catching it..


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    #8901
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Andrew00 wrote: »
    Very skeptical. Visited my grandmother this evening but left after 10 mins when I normally stay an hour. I have a runny nose as well

    runny nose not a normal symptom afaik

    dry cough and elevated temperature (fever)


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    #8902
    Dr. Bre
    Registered Users Posts: 7,588 ✭✭✭Dr. Bre


    Achasanai wrote: »
    Which is a bit rich from C4 News as they've been having feckin marathons over there.

    The UK are screwed . They acted way too late


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    #8903
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Irish_peppa wrote: »
    Are standard dust masks of any use or a waste of time if going down the shops?:confused:

    Quite useless


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    #8904
    JRant
    Registered Users Posts: 12,905 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    I think in general we are in a good place as a country right now. No sense of overall panic and the vast majority of people keeping their distance from others. A couple of pubs full of Yahoo's does not a country make.

    There is absolutely no need to close everything down right now. People who can't work from home should use their own common sense and kept going about their business as carefully as possible.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



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    #8905
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    defrule wrote: »
    Anyone know how resilient supply chains are?

    If drivers start falling sick etc... and Tesco can no longer efficiently get food and supplies to the city. Then we truly will be screwed.

    Army have plenty of truck drivers although not sure. We have lots of supermarkets, not so many soldiers.


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    #8906
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users Posts: 15,919 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    Stheno wrote: »
    Is anyone else a bit scared?

    Yep, and not ashamed to admit it, given what is going on before us in Italy,Spain and many other countries now.

    Hopefully tomorrow things will ramp up here. We really do have a head start and need to work on that.


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    #8907
    aligator_am
    Registered Users Posts: 1,598 ✭✭✭aligator_am


    WhiteMemento9 wrote: »
    I have been told that if three woobles it isn't something they can cope with the medium term fixing and will continue to happen due to capcity issues.

    Their network was generally quite good (for me at least) until they merged with O2, then it turned into pure scutter.

    Telpis once a rake of people start working from home at the same time (expect a lot of people to have the same idea at the same time about hotspotting their mobiles as their DSL is super slow).


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    #8908
    CiarraiAbu2
    Registered Users Posts: 582 ✭✭✭CiarraiAbu2


    There will be some ques outside the social welfare office tomorrow, how are they going to deal with 50k approx people arriving at their doors tomorrow.


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    #8909
    Jurgen Klopp
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,807 ✭✭✭Jurgen Klopp


    A few people mentioned why is Italy getting hit with some many deaths.

    Approx 23% of Italy's entire population is aged 65+ years, the vast majority of deaths have been people in their 70s and 80s

    There's plenty of articles from reputable sources for anyone that wondered if like I did.

    The long and the short of it nations are panicking as simply put even if an elderly person has a 20% chance of dying from this, many more will still need hospital treatment.

    No nation would be able to manage that amount of patients at once it just isn't feasible. The lockdowns are a way of trying to slow it in such a way that they can get recovered patients out the door to accommodate those coming in

    As someone working in healthcare until recently, what worries me is this lockdown is well and good but unless one of the various vaccines and medications we're hearing daily of is deployed and works, as soon as a lockdown finishes within a couple weeks we'll be back to square one with it flourishing again.

    Not only that but the panic is that various meds have been waved through without appropriate testing and I'd worry if this will also backfire as who knows what some of these untested meds could result in


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    #8910
    Ger Roe
    Registered Users Posts: 2,114 ✭✭✭Ger Roe


    gifted wrote: »
    Scared of catching it?

    Scared of the economy?

    Scared of losing your job?

    Scared of no food on the shelves?



    I'm scared of 3 of the 4 above...

    Taking the right precautions so confident of not catching it..


    I am also taking the right precautions, but of all the scares on your list, catching it is still number 1. I can survive the economy crashing, losing my job and I am pretty sure I won't starve... but I don't know if I would survive a new and challenging disease.


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    #8911
    Shn99
    Registered Users Posts: 1,353 ✭✭✭Shn99


    Is there any breakdown of the 79 new cases over the weekend. Like how many are related to travel. local transmission and community transmission or have they just stopped publishing that? Curious to know about the community transmissions and preferably where its occurring


This discussion has been closed.
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