CoVid-19 Part VII - 169 cases ROI (2 deaths) 45 in NI (as of 15 March) *Read OP*

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

France preparing to go draconian after worst day for them yet

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1239308052081360896

Its one thing to stay home. But they have to keep social distance and good hygiene at home too. The Chinese found something like 75% of infections were spread at home. And the French did badly in a recent survey of hygiene levels.

Over 500 dead in Europe today alone.

Cilldara_2000 wrote: »

Did your mother/granny never tell you to stay quiet if you have nothing good to say?

Or perhaps the saying "it's better to say nothing and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt".

Has anyone actually suggested that the UK will rush the border? Wtf does that even mean?

Yes countless people have suggested just that. I'm mocking the overall opinion here and the general obsession with what the UK are doing instead of showing concern about what is happening within Irish borders but that will come soon.

lfen wrote: »

Location of 1 confirmed case

Fcuk.

I only left that school 27 years ago!

Will I be ok???

Is boards actually closing or

Blueshoe wrote: »

I can't understand why people are talking about the army getting involved?.

Sure what are they going to do! Farcical. The general public again being shown up as idiots

Same as the army are doing in Spain France Italy.

Maintain checkpoints & assist civil authorities in doing what they need to do.

[O] Well if the rumours of the intense lockdown are true then it is great news. If Ireland is locked down as tightly as the rumour suggests it will reduce the spread hugely and significantly lower mortality in Ireland over coming weeks and months. And just to put this out there so that it can be timeposted so people can point to this when the worry and conspiracy begins I want to add the following...

[F] We will CONTINUE to see increases in confirmed tests for at least the next 14 days and increased absolute mortality and mortality rate for up to a month EVEN if the lockdown is a massive success.

[F] The reasons for this are as follows:
[F] a) Incubation period for most people is less than 7 days but for almost everyone (or everyone, we're not sure) is about 14 days so people infected today may only develop symptoms on 30th March (roughly).

[F] b) From onset of symptoms to death varies a lot but a figure from Italian doctors I've seen which seems reasonable is about 12 to 18 days if ventilated. The average may well be less if you need but don't get ventilated. So people who get it on 15th March and are symptomatic on the 30th March may not, on average, die till 17th April.

[F] We don't have reliable pools of large data on this virus and illness so these figures are only best guesses by doctors and then my extrapolation of what those numbers mean. The key takehome message is that it won't be obvious if this lockdown has worked for about a month. So, patience, always patience.

[F]Obviously medics etc will be able to see trajectories begin changing before then...

[O] but when you have friends and family argue that the absolute infection and death numbers and rates of infection and death are continuing to climb so the lockdown isn't working and they're going to be idiots and go out and about feel free to quote this with the timestamp so that they will realise that their understanding of epidemiology and disease progression is horribly flawed, this is complex stuff and they need to simmer down.


ANYTHING which prevents the mass spread which was inevitably going to happen on St Patrick's Day is to be welcomed. We would have a MUCH worse problem with a lockdown on the 18th than a lockdown originating on the the 17th or 18th. So, this is GREAT news. Thursday reduced our total number of deaths over the next year a lot. This will reduce it even more. Between Thursday and tomorrow the state has taken steps which will save tens of thousands of lives over the next year. This is wonderful news and we must ALL support the state ( but especially health workers, Gardai, Army, Fire Brigade) and workers in essential services ( Pharmacies, the Post Office, Supermarkets, Food Delivery, Waste Removal etc ) over the coming weeks and months.


TLDR: If there is a lockdown and it is strict then this is great news but it needs to be for just over a month to be effective. It'll probably be for a fortnight and weekly review initially though so as not to panic people... but the epidemiology of incubation periods and the stats re: the illness progression argue for roughly a 32 day lockdown as a minimum in order for it to be effective.


TLDR2: Will there be a lockdown? I have no personal knowledge of this as I haven't been briefed one way or the other so I feel free to speculate here. If I knew I wouldn't tell you. With that said I would be very surprised, at this stage, if the country isn't locked down for a period of time which will be extended to at least a month and almost certainly longer if deemed necessary) starting at midnight on Monday or Tuesday morning (I don't know which).

Tootsie_1 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/carnsoreboxer/status/1239178343175589888?s=21

This is really worrying , this women can’t leave the house has only seen 5 people and now in hospital in bad shape. I think this shows how wide spread this is and how easily contracted it is.

Seriously considering if I should even see my parents .

Only 5 people quickly multiples when you include all the people these 5 people have interacted with in the previous 2 weeks!