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Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) *Read OP*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    spookwoman wrote: »
    excel projections

    NymhyVCl.png


    That's a very conservative projection, you are assuming a linear daily increase but the actual data from other country suggests a Gaussian curve of daily increases


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,321 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    ChikiChiki wrote: »
    Jesus wept. Not everyone is going to be grand.

    I didn't say that.
    Some will die.

    Majority will not suffer too badly.

    The stats prove this.


  • Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 77,192 Mod ✭✭✭✭New Home


    aloooof wrote: »
    I think Italy has a Go Fund Me page setup to help. Does anyone know if something like this has been setup in Ireland? It could really help; I remember seeing stats before about how our contributions to charity were among the highest per head in Europe. I know I'd certainly contribute what I could.

    There's a collection ongoing for Brescia Hospital (from www.giornaledibrescia.it:
    Continuano ad arrivare le donazioni per la raccolta AiutiAMObrescia, attivata da Giornale di Brescia e Fondazione della Comunità Bresciana per sostenere il sistema sanitario bresciano impegnato in prima linea nella lotta contro il coronavirus.

    Una generosità che si espande senza sosta, ma su cui è bene fare un’avvertenza: c’è un solo Iban corretto per contribuire con un bonifico e lo trovate pubblicato sui siti internet e sui canali social ufficiali di Fondazione della Comunità Bresciana e Giornale di Brescia.

    Eccolo:
    Fondazione Comunita Bresciana Onlus (NB senza accento per evitare problemi)
    Ubi Banca
    IBAN: IT76Z0311111238000000001390
    Causale: AIUTIAMOBRESCIA (NB senza hashtag)
    Per chi risiede all'estero: BIC BLOPIT22

    In caso si voglia mantenere l'anonimato per le pubblicazioni sul Giornale di Brescia aggiungere ANONIMO nella causale. Se si volesse dare un contributo «in memoria di» è necessario fare il bonifico e poi inviare una mail a amministrazione@fondazionebresciana.org.

    Qualora sul portale Ubi, flaggando la Fondazione Comunità Bresciana, fosse comparso un Iban diverso da quello indicato ma sempre e comunque intestato a Fondazione Comunità Bresciana, l’operazione va comunque a buon fine: se nella causale è stato specificato «AiutiAMObrescia», la donazione sarà inoltrata alla raccolta dedicata. Le donazioni consentono la deducibilità degli importi donati. Tutti i clienti di Ubi Banca possono utilizzare l'home banking nella sezione bonifico solidale, che non prevede commissioni.
    TRANSLATION:
    Donations continue to arrive for the AiutiAMObrescia collection, activated by Giornale di Brescia and the Brescia Community Foundation (Fondazione della Comunità Bresciana) to support the Brescia health system engaged in the front line in the fight against coronavirus. A generosity that expands relentlessly, but beware: there is only one correct IBAN to contribute with a bank transfer and it can be found on the official websites and social media channels of the Fondazione della Comunità Bresciana and Giornale di Brescia. Here it is:

    Fondazione Comunita Bresciana Onlus (with no accent on Comunità to avoid problems)
    Ubi Banca
    IBAN: IT76Z0311111238000000001390
    Remittance Information: AIUTIAMOBRESCIA (with no hashtag)
    For those donating from abroad: BIC/SWIFT code BLOPIT22


    Should you wish to remain anonymous and not to have your name published in the the Brescia newspaper, add ANONIMO in the payment details/comments.

    If you wish to make a contribution "In Memory Of" someone, after you've made your donation send an email to amministrazione@fondazionebresciana.org.

    Please note that in most cases the number of characters allowed in the beneficiary name field won't be enough to allow you to type the full name (i.e. Fondazione Comunita Bresciana Onlus). I've spoken to my bank and I was told that the payments would go through anyway as the IBAN and SWIFT codes are correct.

    I was sent a photo of an article on one of the papers this morning, it's from the Director of Brescia Hospital. I'll see if I can find it online later, it'll be easier to translate. Here it is anyway:

    505268.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    With all this "Wuhan handshake', and "don't touch your face", what's the new, safe version of a facepalm? We're gonna need one.

    Knee Palm

    Or as i like to say Naplam!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,034 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    spookwoman wrote: »
    excel projections

    NymhyVCl.png
    I don't agree with the headings, but where are the numbers in the left column coming from? They seem extremely optimistic..

    Edit: Oh wait, it's the average daily increase thus far applied iteratively, is it?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,065 ✭✭✭otnomart


    Interesting info about Scotland:

    "analysis indicates three introductions of COVID-19 infections into Scotland for which genome sequence data is available. For two of these there is evidence of linked transmissions either occurring in or out of Scotland.
    Clustering is consistent with the known travel histories.

    It is important to note the countries indicated in the sequence names are where the individuals reside and not necessarily the origin of their infection, as most are recent travellers. For example, CVR02 and CVR04 are closest to samples from individuals testing positive in the Netherlands. However, it cannot be concluded from this analysis that the Scottish individuals were infected in the Netherlands as we do not have complete travel histories for these cases.

    Importantly, there are now multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2/hCoV-19 into Europe and several introductions to Scotland.

    source: http://virological.org/t/update-report-of-covid-19-in-scotland-multiple-introductions/438


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,275 ✭✭✭✭josip


    spookwoman wrote: »
    excel projections


    I think you need to build in the R0 value for Covid 19 into your formula.
    Excel is giving you the basic LINEAR() projection


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,037 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    We have an opportunity to get ahead of this if only someone would make a firm decision.

    I think a lot of people would actually be quite relieved (me being one of them), if schools and colleges are closed, gatherings of more than 1,000 are banned, social distancing was observed etc. If self isolation is not observed it will result in you being sent to the Gulags!

    OK Cheltenham was and is a disaster, but that was a UK decision. No directives were given to people from here NOT to travel there, or demand self isolation on return.

    Being given clear directions, (orders...), means that people, typical "be grand" Irish will not feel idiotic for voluntarily observing these rules. It would change mindsets. I do realise that Public Transport is a difficult one, and also the economy will suffer somewhat, but hopefully there will be stimulus packages, loan deferrals etc. put in place.

    I'd like to think that our little country could do their best on this, push back the infection rates, and be proud that we did it.

    We shall see.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    odyssey06 wrote: »
    Part VI and the country is still only in Phase 1 of the outbreak...

    I went to light the fire and do some tasks and when I came back, brand new thread! Grand and yes a rapidly developing situation.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    NIMAN wrote: »
    I didn't say that.
    Some will die.

    Majority will not suffer too badly.

    The stats prove this.


    Majority has become a very subjective concept when you look at the stats
    death rate on closed cases = 6%
    severe conditions on open cases = 13% (Iran inst providing data so this is probably even bigger)
    we are looking at a 20% of people requiring intensive care, which won't be available when numbers exceed capacity


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,820 ✭✭✭smelly sock


    Fully expecting most workplaces not to reopen after the weekend. Question is why not shut them now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,480 ✭✭✭YbFocus


    The excel doesn't allow for the exponential spread of the virus, as more people become affected it moves faster.
    By the 10th April it should be much higher.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    We are most definitely in phase 2.

    Phase 1 was a farce - contact tracing is no longer possible, anyone who says so is fooling themselves. Just look at the first case in Cork. They were only a handful of cases in and they are already mystified how he got it. Which means there's a person walking around with the virus that no-one knows about.

    When you fail at phase 1, best to move on to phase 2, which is delay. Delay means closing schools and unis, cancelling all sports events and so on. The quicker they move to this the better.

    It's possible the corks case got it in the hospital. I think I read he showed up in hospital at some stage and then he went in again for something else or another. Maybe someone in the hospital who was away in Italy. God knows.

    Allowing flights from a hotspot in and out from the country to go about their daily lives with a yellow flyer, yeah that's a mess.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,321 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    Fully expecting most workplaces not to reopen after the weekend. Question is why not shut them now.

    Daftest statement in a long time.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Italy’s numbers today will be interesting, they dropped dramatically yesterday.

    Might be getting through to them in Italy.

    Increasing anxiety > increasing behaviour modification > decreasing number of new cases > interrupts the exponential chain for growth.

    New cases were down yesterday by a fair bit. Today's update (round 5pm) will be interesting.

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-scared-italians-finally-heed-call-to-stay-at-home-as-deaths-rise-11955061


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,349 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    Fully expecting most workplaces not to reopen after the weekend. Question is why not shut them now.

    That's not going to happen.


  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,135 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Turkey has confirmed its first case of the coronavirus.

    They have woken up guys


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    YbFocus wrote: »
    The excel doesn't allow for the exponential spread of the virus, as more people become affected it moves faster.
    By the 10th April it should be much higher.

    Even though its a "spread"sheet?

    :pac:


  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 17,998 Mod ✭✭✭✭ixoy


    Fully expecting most workplaces not to reopen after the weekend. Question is why not shut them now.

    Why do you expect that? Based on..?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,401 ✭✭✭all about the mane


    Fully expecting most workplaces not to reopen after the weekend. Question is why not shut them now.

    Why shut them? Are people really going to isolate themselves?


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    rameire wrote: »
    29-Feb 1
    01-Mar 0 1
    02-Mar 0 1
    03-Mar 1 2
    04-Mar 4 6
    05-Mar 7 13
    06-Mar 5 18
    07-Mar 1 19
    08-Mar 2 21
    09-Mar 3 24
    10-Mar 10 34
    11-Mar 90 billion 34

    Ooooh I love tables. You wouldn’t have the European numbers to put alongside it, would ya? So, 1st March is our day one and whatever, ie: Spain day announced their first case is written alongside day one. Would be interesting to see the rises in cases like that.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    I'd thread carefully, she's up for a bit of agro today

    Me? Nah! lol...all peaceful out here.


  • Registered Users Posts: 336 ✭✭ThePopehimself


    Yes, this was my version from yesterday!

    Ireland - 27th February Zero cases here in the ROI.

    On the 1st of March 2020 the1st case of Covid-19 was recorded here in Ireland (ROI) by the HSE.

    Trajectory from 1st of March . . . .

    1, 6, 13, 19, 21, 24, 34, (. .), (. .), . . .

    34 cases recorded as of today, Tuesday 11th March.

    First case was February 29.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    ixoy wrote: »
    Why do you expect that? Based on..?

    Looks like someone didn't get the pm last night with the big numbers!




    :( Either did I


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Realistically you’re going to get it anyway. It’s not Ebola. Most people will be fine and won’t even need hospital treatment. I think this is what will happen, we’ll just come to live with it and Will just be a new normal after a while.

    And no one will die?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,065 ✭✭✭otnomart


    Might be getting through to them in Italy.

    Increasing anxiety > increasing behaviour modification > decreasing number of new cases > interrupts the exponential chain for growth.

    New cases were down yesterday by a fair bit. Today's update (round 5pm) will be interesting.

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-scared-italians-finally-heed-call-to-stay-at-home-as-deaths-rise-11955061


    What has worked so far:


    23 February: Italy had done 3000 tests and found 132 positive cases
    Lockdown starts for the epicentres, population 50000 people, with police and army check points
    That paid off : there were no cases in Codogno yesterday

    4 March: approx 2700 positive cases - Italy closes schools and universities - nationwide

    That worked in South Korea (although I don't know at which number of cases they took that decision)
    Hopefully France and Germany will follow suit


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    Ooooh I love tables. You wouldn’t have the European numbers to put alongside it, would ya? So, 1st March is our day one and whatever, ie: Spain day announced their first case is written alongside day one. Would be interesting to see the rises in cases like that.


    Stats by country are in here



    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,954 ✭✭✭Tippex


    I know it's not much of a choice when you need to get where you're going, but people are choosing to squeeze into rammed buses.

    The drivers only drive them, they don't make anyone get on.

    Personal responsibility is key - especially going forward, people need to make choices based on what's best for them, and those around them.

    The term there is Personal responsibility is core to this.
    As a society we are not brilliant at this but we do certainly need to look after ourselves and make sensible decisions.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,988 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    Looks like someone didn't get the pm last night with the big numbers!




    :( Either did I

    I did but left it as is as I was asked not to tell anyone


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,321 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    Graces7 wrote: »
    And no one will die?

    No one is saying there will be no deaths.

    There will be for sure, maybe quite a lot.

    But not anywhere near what some doom merchants are saying.


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  • Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Graces7 wrote: »
    And no one will die?

    Of course people will die. People die all the time.
    Corona may eventually just be another thing you can die from.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,739 ✭✭✭scamalert


    Graces7 wrote: »
    And no one will die?
    and if they do so what ? not like anyones announcing every old person or odd one dying each day worldwide from millions of preventable reasons.


    i agree most will get it few casualties but life will move on, stopping everything wont make it go away in this case.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,349 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    Realistically you’re going to get it anyway. It’s not Ebola. Most people will be fine and won’t even need hospital treatment. I think this is what will happen, we’ll just come to live with it and Will just be a new normal after a while.

    10%-20% of cases need serious/critical hospital care. We don't have the capacity for that on a broad scale. There would be nothing normal about people dying because we don't have the ICU capacity to treat them.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,286 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    How many brexit threads are there now? This will surely break the record.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,950 ✭✭✭ChikiChiki


    eldamo wrote: »
    the guy who sits behind me in work is just back from madrid.

    someone in the office raised it to the office manager that they were worried about him.

    my boss refused to send him home, we go off an alert list from the robert koch institute to decide how bad an area is.

    he isn't feeling well

    has a doctors appointment at 1pm.

    IT'S HAPPENING!

    Look him firmly in the eye. Tell him not to be a prick and **** off home.

    He is putting a doctor and hundreds of patients at risk.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    In a few months time we will all be gone and when people eventually re-emerge and look at boards.ie all they will find is Graces7 sending endless storm and cat reports from west mayo, offshore.......

    What a dreadful thought! Reminds me of?? "On the Beach" ? When they search for an apparent survivor.... and find a haphazard machine tapping out messages... lol


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,907 ✭✭✭Stevieluvsye


    MadYaker wrote: »
    How many brexit threads are there now? This will surely break the record.

    This will break the record by Friday


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,020 ✭✭✭boetstark


    The 1% figure is likely a way overestimation though.

    Can I ask why you think 1% is an overestimate. UK currently at 1.85% and Italy at 4.85%.
    Genuinely curious as to reasons you think we are different.
    Your mentality really worries me more than the doomsday merchants on here


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,401 ✭✭✭all about the mane


    Tippex wrote: »
    The term there is Personal responsibility is core to this.
    As a society we are not brilliant at this but we do certainly need to look after ourselves and make sensible decisions.

    Plenty examples already that people are not making the right decisions. Even those who would have knowledge in the area.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,988 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    https://twitter.com/breakingnewsie/status/1237721964556382209?s=20

    A teacher at a Cork secondary school is in self-isolation after coming in close contact with someone who tested positive for Covid-19.
    “The teacher involved has informed the school that he has not tested positive for the virus,” the school said.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,132 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Mr.S wrote: »
    Of the 34 cases in Ireland, how many are currently in ICU?

    At least 2, I believe.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,039 ✭✭✭✭retro:electro


    In a few months time we will all be gone and when people eventually re-emerge and look at boards.ie all they will find is Graces7 sending endless storm and cat reports from west mayo, offshore.......

    Over and out thank YOU


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,349 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    Cork is going to be our Northern Italy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,401 ✭✭✭all about the mane


    boetstark wrote: »
    Can I ask why you think 1% is an overestimate. UK currently at 1.85% and Italy at 4.85%.
    Genuinely curious as to reasons you think we are different.
    Your mentality really worries me more than the doomsday merchants on here

    Those figures are based on known cases. There will be far more cases that are never reported, tested for, or even realised. The rate will be way lower as a result.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,065 ✭✭✭otnomart


    Dashboard showing reported cases of coronavirus in the UK, including new cases, cases by upper tier local authority in England and number of deaths.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-track-coronavirus-cases

    You can see:

    reported cases of coronavirus in the UK
    reported cases per upper tier local authority (UTLA) in England
    new cases confirmed each day
    number of UK deaths due to coronavirus

    You can also see the cases on a map and download the data in CSV format:

    Daily indicators

    Daily confirmed cases


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    cnocbui wrote: »
    At least 2, I believe.


    we are half full capacity already!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,349 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    Those figures are based on known cases. There will be far more cases that are never reported, tested for, or even realised. The rate will be way lower as a result.

    But if they are unknown then you can't say what the rate is.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,272 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    What this crisis shows how vulnerable the west is to a disruption of globalization in business. This or a war can shut down various sectors. It is a mistake to shut down strategic sectors in the country i.e. steel, sugar etc etc. Just remember when the snow stopped deliveries to shops as their warehouses were in one or two locations. We are too reliant on China and outside forces.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,401 ✭✭✭all about the mane


    namloc1980 wrote: »
    Cork is going to be our Northern Italy.

    It already is. The workhorse of the nation.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    Candamir wrote: »
    So no actual suggestions relating to the few issues that I came up with off the top of my head with your policy just in relation to schools?
    Didn’t think so.

    It’s very easy to make sweeping statements about what you think we should do - the clever people have to manage the fallout from those decisions.

    And if you knew anything about human factors, you’d realise that what worked for the Chinese will not work for us. For all kinds of reasons that have been explored in part on the thread. But you seem to think that martial law is the way forward.

    Yes, lets get into a long winded philosophical discussion about the pros and cons of this, lasting several weeks. By which stage we will be in an infinitely worse state because of inaction.

    Or we could just act now. You can always get an education. But you only get one chance at living, particularly if you are a grandparent of an infected kid.


This discussion has been closed.
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