Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) Read OP

PaybackPayroll · 11-03-2020 1:32pm

youreadthat wrote: »

All the people wanting everything to be cancelled, it’s now in human populations around the world, it isn’t going to disappear. There is no point shutting everything down for a month and crippling the economy (which inhibits funding of research, treatments and other functions of society that keep a society functioning) only for it to reappear in June. There is also a limit on how long you can feasibly expect to properly control population to that extent.

Yes, of course shutting everything down will cripple the economy. People realise that.

The reason for shutting everything down is to 'flatten the curve' the health system will get, it give it some glimmer of hope. Wuhan style.

Tacitus Kilgore · 11-03-2020 1:33pm

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Yes, this was my version from the other day!

Ireland - 27th February Zero cases here in the ROI.

On the 1st of March 2020 the1st case of Covid-19 was recorded here in Ireland (ROI) by the HSE.

Trajectory from 1st of March . . . .

1, 6, 13, 19, 21, 24, 34, (. .), (. .), . . .

34 cases recorded as of today, Tuesday 11th March

Are double nipples a symptom?

11-03-2020 1:33pm

In a few months time we will all be gone and when people eventually re-emerge and look at boards.ie all they will find is Graces7 sending endless storm and cat reports from west mayo, offshore.......

whisky_galore · 11-03-2020 1:33pm

wakka12 wrote: »

Another import from Egypt, an Egyptian man has tested positive at an airport in Saudi Arabia.
It is likely there is significant community transmission occurring in Egypt and would imply that this virus thrives in warm climates as well as cold.

It thrives where people take it lightly and don't give a shyte about keeping their distance more like.

tobefrank321 · 11-03-2020 1:34pm

Deleted User wrote: »

In a few months time we will all be gone and when people eventually re-emerge and look at boards.ie all they will find is Graces7 sending endless storm and cat reports from west mayo, offshore.......

Indeed. I'm looking forward to the documentary about Graces7 (if I'm still around).

Stevieluvsye · 11-03-2020 1:35pm

Deleted User wrote: »

In a few months time we will all be gone and when people eventually re-emerge and look at boards.ie all they will find is Graces7 sending endless storm and cat reports from west mayo, offshore.......

I'd thread carefully, she's up for a bit of agro today

spookwoman · 11-03-2020 1:35pm

excel projections

whisky_galore · 11-03-2020 1:35pm

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Indeed. I'm looking forward to the documentary about Graces7 (if I'm still around).

21st century Peig.

Hamsterchops · 11-03-2020 1:36pm

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

Are double nipples a symptom?

Yes, single nipples are so passé

05eaftqbrs9jlh · 11-03-2020 1:37pm

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

What? Sure he's probably not sick?

The chances of catching it are slim enough. He's right to go to work unless he is showing symptoms.

Not true. Please stop spreading misinformation, it's not funny; you could literally be the cause of someone's death you absolute gowl. What the hell is your problem.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMJHDScuSHg

Dr Paul O'Brien last night on Prime Time. The evidence indicates that even asymptomatic people are often carriers before the standard testing confirms it. Schools and events need to be closed NOW. It's a hard fact but people are in complete denial.

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

I'd thread carefully, she's up for a bit of agro today

She's at risk of death because of a virus that everyone seems to find hilarious today. I know we need humour to keep us calm, but laughing at somebody who is high risk of contracting a virus the goverment is doing this bad of a job of handling is completely sh!t carry on.

Mic 1972 · 11-03-2020 1:38pm

spookwoman wrote: »

excel projections

That's a very conservative projection, you are assuming a linear daily increase but the actual data from other country suggests a Gaussian curve of daily increases

NIMAN · 11-03-2020 1:38pm

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Jesus wept. Not everyone is going to be grand.

I didn't say that.
Some will die.

Majority will not suffer too badly.

The stats prove this.

New Home · 11-03-2020 1:38pm

aloooof wrote: »

I think Italy has a Go Fund Me page setup to help. Does anyone know if something like this has been setup in Ireland? It could really help; I remember seeing stats before about how our contributions to charity were among the highest per head in Europe. I know I'd certainly contribute what I could.

There's a collection ongoing for Brescia Hospital (from www.giornaledibrescia.it:

Continuano ad arrivare le donazioni per la raccolta AiutiAMObrescia, attivata da Giornale di Brescia e Fondazione della Comunità Bresciana per sostenere il sistema sanitario bresciano impegnato in prima linea nella lotta contro il coronavirus.

Una generosità che si espande senza sosta, ma su cui è bene fare un’avvertenza: c’è un solo Iban corretto per contribuire con un bonifico e lo trovate pubblicato sui siti internet e sui canali social ufficiali di Fondazione della Comunità Bresciana e Giornale di Brescia.

Eccolo:
Fondazione Comunita Bresciana Onlus (NB senza accento per evitare problemi)
Ubi Banca
IBAN: IT76Z0311111238000000001390
Causale: AIUTIAMOBRESCIA (NB senza hashtag)
Per chi risiede all'estero: BIC BLOPIT22

In caso si voglia mantenere l'anonimato per le pubblicazioni sul Giornale di Brescia aggiungere ANONIMO nella causale. Se si volesse dare un contributo «in memoria di» è necessario fare il bonifico e poi inviare una mail a amministrazione@fondazionebresciana.org.

Qualora sul portale Ubi, flaggando la Fondazione Comunità Bresciana, fosse comparso un Iban diverso da quello indicato ma sempre e comunque intestato a Fondazione Comunità Bresciana, l’operazione va comunque a buon fine: se nella causale è stato specificato «AiutiAMObrescia», la donazione sarà inoltrata alla raccolta dedicata. Le donazioni consentono la deducibilità degli importi donati. Tutti i clienti di Ubi Banca possono utilizzare l'home banking nella sezione bonifico solidale, che non prevede commissioni.

TRANSLATION:

Donations continue to arrive for the AiutiAMObrescia collection, activated by Giornale di Brescia and the Brescia Community Foundation (Fondazione della Comunità Bresciana) to support the Brescia health system engaged in the front line in the fight against coronavirus. A generosity that expands relentlessly, but beware: there is only one correct IBAN to contribute with a bank transfer and it can be found on the official websites and social media channels of the Fondazione della Comunità Bresciana and Giornale di Brescia. Here it is:

Fondazione Comunita Bresciana Onlus (with no accent on Comunità to avoid problems)
Ubi Banca
IBAN: IT76Z0311111238000000001390
Remittance Information: AIUTIAMOBRESCIA (with no hashtag)
For those donating from abroad: BIC/SWIFT code BLOPIT22

Should you wish to remain anonymous and not to have your name published in the the Brescia newspaper, add ANONIMO in the payment details/comments.

If you wish to make a contribution "In Memory Of" someone, after you've made your donation send an email to amministrazione@fondazionebresciana.org.

Please note that in most cases the number of characters allowed in the beneficiary name field won't be enough to allow you to type the full name (i.e. Fondazione Comunita Bresciana Onlus). I've spoken to my bank and I was told that the payments would go through anyway as the IBAN and SWIFT codes are correct.

I was sent a photo of an article on one of the papers this morning, it's from the Director of Brescia Hospital. I'll see if I can find it online later, it'll be easier to translate. Here it is anyway:

Funsterdelux · 11-03-2020 1:38pm

Blackhorse Slim wrote: »

With all this "Wuhan handshake', and "don't touch your face", what's the new, safe version of a facepalm? We're gonna need one.

Knee Palm

Or as i like to say Naplam!

Ficheall · 11-03-2020 1:39pm

spookwoman wrote: »

excel projections

I don't agree with the headings, but where are the numbers in the left column coming from? They seem extremely optimistic..

Edit: Oh wait, it's the average daily increase thus far applied iteratively, is it?

otnomart · 11-03-2020 1:40pm

Interesting info about Scotland:

"analysis indicates three introductions of COVID-19 infections into Scotland for which genome sequence data is available. For two of these there is evidence of linked transmissions either occurring in or out of Scotland.
Clustering is consistent with the known travel histories.

It is important to note the countries indicated in the sequence names are where the individuals reside and not necessarily the origin of their infection, as most are recent travellers. For example, CVR02 and CVR04 are closest to samples from individuals testing positive in the Netherlands. However, it cannot be concluded from this analysis that the Scottish individuals were infected in the Netherlands as we do not have complete travel histories for these cases.

Importantly, there are now multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2/hCoV-19 into Europe and several introductions to Scotland.

source: http://virological.org/t/update-report-of-covid-19-in-scotland-multiple-introductions/438

josip · 11-03-2020 1:40pm

spookwoman wrote: »

excel projections

I think you need to build in the R0 value for Covid 19 into your formula.
Excel is giving you the basic LINEAR() projection

Spanish Eyes · 11-03-2020 1:40pm

We have an opportunity to get ahead of this if only someone would make a firm decision.

I think a lot of people would actually be quite relieved (me being one of them), if schools and colleges are closed, gatherings of more than 1,000 are banned, social distancing was observed etc. If self isolation is not observed it will result in you being sent to the Gulags!

OK Cheltenham was and is a disaster, but that was a UK decision. No directives were given to people from here NOT to travel there, or demand self isolation on return.

Being given clear directions, (orders...), means that people, typical "be grand" Irish will not feel idiotic for voluntarily observing these rules. It would change mindsets. I do realise that Public Transport is a difficult one, and also the economy will suffer somewhat, but hopefully there will be stimulus packages, loan deferrals etc. put in place.

I'd like to think that our little country could do their best on this, push back the infection rates, and be proud that we did it.

We shall see.

Graces7 · 11-03-2020 1:40pm

odyssey06 wrote: »

Part VI and the country is still only in Phase 1 of the outbreak...

I went to light the fire and do some tasks and when I came back, brand new thread! Grand and yes a rapidly developing situation.

Mic 1972 · 11-03-2020 1:40pm

NIMAN wrote: »

I didn't say that.
Some will die.

Majority will not suffer too badly.

The stats prove this.

Majority has become a very subjective concept when you look at the stats
death rate on closed cases = 6%
severe conditions on open cases = 13% (Iran inst providing data so this is probably even bigger)
we are looking at a 20% of people requiring intensive care, which won't be available when numbers exceed capacity

smelly sock · 11-03-2020 1:40pm

Fully expecting most workplaces not to reopen after the weekend. Question is why not shut them now.

YbFocus · 11-03-2020 1:41pm

The excel doesn't allow for the exponential spread of the virus, as more people become affected it moves faster.
By the 10th April it should be much higher.

owlbethere · 11-03-2020 1:41pm

tobefrank321 wrote: »

We are most definitely in phase 2.

Phase 1 was a farce - contact tracing is no longer possible, anyone who says so is fooling themselves. Just look at the first case in Cork. They were only a handful of cases in and they are already mystified how he got it. Which means there's a person walking around with the virus that no-one knows about.

When you fail at phase 1, best to move on to phase 2, which is delay. Delay means closing schools and unis, cancelling all sports events and so on. The quicker they move to this the better.

It's possible the corks case got it in the hospital. I think I read he showed up in hospital at some stage and then he went in again for something else or another. Maybe someone in the hospital who was away in Italy. God knows.

Allowing flights from a hotspot in and out from the country to go about their daily lives with a yellow flyer, yeah that's a mess.

NIMAN · 11-03-2020 1:41pm

smelly sock wrote: »

Fully expecting most workplaces not to reopen after the weekend. Question is why not shut them now.

Daftest statement in a long time.

11-03-2020 1:42pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Italy’s numbers today will be interesting, they dropped dramatically yesterday.

Might be getting through to them in Italy.

Increasing anxiety > increasing behaviour modification > decreasing number of new cases > interrupts the exponential chain for growth.

New cases were down yesterday by a fair bit. Today's update (round 5pm) will be interesting.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-scared-italians-finally-heed-call-to-stay-at-home-as-deaths-rise-11955061

namloc1980 · 11-03-2020 1:42pm

smelly sock wrote: »

Fully expecting most workplaces not to reopen after the weekend. Question is why not shut them now.

That's not going to happen.

cherryghost · 11-03-2020 1:42pm

Turkey has confirmed its first case of the coronavirus.

They have woken up guys

Funsterdelux · 11-03-2020 1:42pm

YbFocus wrote: »

The excel doesn't allow for the exponential spread of the virus, as more people become affected it moves faster.
By the 10th April it should be much higher.

Even though its a "spread"sheet?

:pac:

ixoy · 11-03-2020 1:44pm

smelly sock wrote: »

Fully expecting most workplaces not to reopen after the weekend. Question is why not shut them now.

Why do you expect that? Based on..?

all about the mane · 11-03-2020 1:44pm

smelly sock wrote: »

Fully expecting most workplaces not to reopen after the weekend. Question is why not shut them now.

Why shut them? Are people really going to isolate themselves?

Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) *Read OP*

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Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) Read OP