Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) Read warnings in OP

Achasanai · 08-03-2020 02:03PM

MadYaker wrote: »

1.9 million is surely a worst case scenario. Even in China they've only had 80,000 so far and it seems to be slowing down there now. We've been more turned on to this from the start so not sure how we could end up with 1.9 million cases in Ireland alone?? Id like to see the modelling.

I'm not sure about ourselves being more 'turned on' to the situation. China were also 'free' to enact more draconian measures than we will ever be able to (legally). Having said that, I agree, 1.9 million is surely the absolute worst case scenario.

Eliana Uptight Caterpillar wrote: »

I can't believe papers are still keeping articles like this behind paywalls.

Why would they make it available for free? You don't have to pay the subscription, just buy the actual paper.

is_that_so · 08-03-2020 02:03PM

silverharp wrote: »

noticing people are cleaning stuff more at the gym ,and lots of announcements about doing it.

Yep, big yellow HSE signs up and paper in all the containers.

Sir Oxman · 08-03-2020 02:03PM

whiskeyman wrote: »

Claims are from Irish health authority modelling figures.
It's a sombre read.

Modelling they have seen suggests a 30% infection rate best case, while 50% worst case.

Inside the paper one of the headlines is '... Over 80s most likely to perish'.

Not sure choice of words suitable for a paper of it's standard.

Just now the headline on Radio 1 news - the HSE said it cannot dispute the report in the SBP though modelling is not complete.

Mic 1972 · 08-03-2020 02:04PM

Brianmwalker wrote: »

Does it start mild and get worse or does it quick get to the maximum stage? Genuine question, seems to be taking a long time for recoveries.

it's a good question, there doesn't seem to be a clear answer to this
Some people have mild symptoms all along, others start mild and develop into critical, people have died 4-5 days after developing critical issues, others have recovered from that after 2 weeks.
Ther was a link on the old thread to a Canadian doctor who explained all of this, i can't find it anymore

stephenjmcd · 08-03-2020 02:04PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Why are they not recommending Italy as a whole? Tip-toeing around the situation again.

Their on website hasn't updated yet either

Sleeper12 · 08-03-2020 02:04PM

Deleted User wrote:

Is that correct? According to WHO figures it ranges from 0.2% to 14% depending on health and age. The actual average is up for grabs after that, depending on response, availability of infrastructure etc.

WHO says death rate is 3.4 percent but they say that it could be lower. They believe that there are a lot of young people who have /had to virus with symptoms of less than a common cold. These young people haven't been tested so they aren't part of the official figures. 3.4 percent death rate of confirmed cases

Away With The Fairies · 08-03-2020 02:04PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

https://twitter.com/dlglsh/status/1236233743674888193

We really are ****ed. No telling the kid off.

iguana · 08-03-2020 02:05PM

Brianmwalker wrote: »

Does it start mild and get worse or does it quick get to the maximum stage? Genuine question, seems to be taking a long time for recoveries.

The virus lingers in the body for a long time during recovery. So even when people have stopped being symptomatic and feel recovered, they still have a viral load that shows up in tests, sometimes for weeks. This means that recovery rates lag an awful lot in the first few weeks/months of an outbreak. The good news however is, that when a virus lingers like this it usually means a person's antibodies become very strong and is an indication of a long period of immunity to follow.

ACitizenErased · 08-03-2020 02:05PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Their on website hasn't updated yet either

The amount of incompetence is incredible. Do not let people from Italy in for 2/3 weeks and see how it goes, how hard is it like?

noodler · 08-03-2020 02:05PM

Katie Dirty Copperhead wrote: »

They’re not supporting it, they’re currently unable to dispute it

The way I read it, it was leaked from Gov, SBP queried HSE and HSE "don't dispute".

It's not like SBP asked them to confirm a randomer's analysis.

Jim_Hodge · 08-03-2020 02:05PM

Popoutman wrote: »

Known figures from Italy are that >80s are dying at a rate of about 1 in 6. That's literally russian roulette odds.

It's not unreasonable to be scared of that, when there's pretty much no personal control over the infection ...

So, you agree with all the rest of the post, just not the edited portion?

The point was that we are getting both extremes here in equal measure, so that poster could not state that we are all capable of seeing the reality of the situation.

If this goes on for the months some are projecting, these threads will become some cluster****.

I think I'll pass until we have a proper picture of where we're heading.

bekker · 08-03-2020 02:06PM

Resolved cases South Korea 29.76% deaths (dead 50, recovered 116).

Resolved cases 2.3% of confirmed cases.

Number tested not reliable indicator, test only gives positive when virus shedding is present in sufficient quantities, testing before that stage will be negative.

Criteria for applying tests differ between countries so gross comparisons are unreliable.

There is some indication that sputum testing is more sensitive than throat swabs, and in China they needed CT scans to detect in some cases.

While there is some indication of test indication of false recovery and apparent reinfection so far this appears to be statistically insignificant.

Rob A. Bank · 08-03-2020 02:06PM

Cilldara_2000 wrote: »

As well as the SBP it would appear. Sensationalist click-bait from a supposedly quality broadsheet.

Yeaa... shoot the messenger... always a good tactic !

SusanC10 · 08-03-2020 02:06PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1236635039963721729?s=19

DFA website not updated yet. Still advising against travel to 4 areas.

Graces7 · 08-03-2020 02:06PM

sullivlo wrote: »

I am worried about covid19.

It might seem like I am being overly dramatic in my actions. But I cannot afford for my family to get sick, so I want to be proactive in trying to reduce my risk of catching it.

You are an inspiration, sullivio. Thank you.

08-03-2020 02:07PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

https://twitter.com/dlglsh/status/1236233743674888193

Had to scrub me teeth and swish Domestos around me gob after watching that.

ChikiChiki · 08-03-2020 02:07PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1236635039963721729?s=19

Don't advise. Give a directive if they do, they wont be allowed back, or even criminal charges and fines if they disobey. That will require the passing of emergency laws of course.

Its coming to the point where strong arming is needed to limit the damage.

Advise is too weak a word given the risk level I feel. Clear language and communication vital right now.

Sleeper12 · 08-03-2020 02:07PM

ChikiChiki wrote:

Apologies if I have missed it but where are they supporting it?

The HSE has said that they can't dispute the claims. They haven't said that they support it

Popoutman · 08-03-2020 02:07PM

Achasanai wrote: »

Having said that, I agree, 1.9 million is surely the absolute worst case scenario.

A much more important question is "When will we hit 1.9 million" not "if". Unless we take strong measures ASAP, we are going to get a nice short very sharp peak of cases and we're going to collapse.

If we're staying oblivious to the spread, we'll have that 1.9 million by mid-summer. If we take action, we might hit 1.9 million by the New Year. I know which scenario I'd prefer to be in.

ldy4mxonucwsq6 · 08-03-2020 02:07PM

Blueshoe wrote: »

How many cases do we have? 19 at present.
Il stick to the current reality and leave the panic to those who enjoy it

Except that's not the current reality at all.

Bullocks · 08-03-2020 02:07PM

silverharp wrote: »

noticing people are cleaning stuff more at the gym ,and lots of announcements about doing it.

I was in the gym myself the other evening and was thinking it must be a hotbed for germs. Sweating and heavy breathing everywhere in the place

Christy42 · 08-03-2020 02:08PM

Sir Oxman wrote: »

Just now the headline on Radio 1 news - the HSE said it cannot dispute the report in the SBP though modelling is not complete.

Well the SBP has the health authorities as their source. So if the HSE can't back it up the figures are completely made up.

It says the Irish Health Authorities predict this will happen. If the Irish Health Authorities haven't finished modelling it they fairly obviously haven't predicted anything yet and the SBP is a spoofer.

toneygecko · 08-03-2020 02:08PM

So in the Netherlands they have an interactive map showing the locations of all confirmed cases. I was sent a picture by a friend over there but I don't know how to attach it here. Why is privacy of no concern over there? Serious dose of mushroom syndrome over here.

is_that_so · 08-03-2020 02:08PM

noodler wrote: »

The way I read it, it was leaked from Gov, SBP queried HSE and HSE "don't dispute".

It's not like SBP asked them to confirm a randomer's analysis.

It looks more more like someone read the British worst case projection and asked the same question. In truth, they can't currently disagree with that.

Mic 1972 · 08-03-2020 02:09PM

The death rate is 5.64% as of today, based on more than 60K closed cases. It's a big enough sample
Other measurements based on unresolved cases or based on specific countries make little sense

frillyleaf · 08-03-2020 02:09PM

the butcher wrote: »

An economic hit is coming, we can decide as a nation whether it's quick and fast or slow and painful. This can come fast from a proactive lock down...otherwise we stare into a forced lock down like Italy after a complete healthcare collapse...which is most sane peoples eyes is far far worse of an impact.

We know it will cost hugely to business but there's no alternative. You can't expect to do zero of the measures China has implemented and expect us not to be hit by this. Shut downs of schools, workplaces, public transport, sporting and social events are inevitable.

We now need national solidarity on this. Cop on and stop pretending that its "just a flu" and stupid nonsense talk about "panic porn". It adds nothing to the discussion. I don't want this, I'd rather not talk about this, I'm not panicked but I'm concerned for the high risk categorises of PEOPLE. My family, my friends, my neighbours and work colleagues. I understand the need to avoid panic but I don't want to tip that kind of talk into complacency. Irish people are reasonable and will accept what is coming if our officials were transparent and honest.

If we can push this into April we can hope proactive sacrifices & warmer weather will beat this back which means we can look at the Summer with a good bit of hope. We need to help our frontline health workers as much as possible and that means adhering to the advice given so far but we want more than advice, we want more action at this stage.

Has there been any research on whether and temperatures? How do we know the warm weather may not help it thrive ?

Strazdas · 08-03-2020 02:10PM

Clarence Boddiker wrote: »

How things change

That headline is clearly extremely misleading. Given how wildly unpredictable viruses are, the real figure could be anywhere between 190 people and 1.9m (the latter number seems scarcely credible given health awareness, modern hygiene and modern medicine).

banie01 · 08-03-2020 02:10PM

noodler wrote: »

The way I read it, it was leaked from Gov, SBP queried HSE and HSE "don't dispute".

It's not like SBP asked them to confirm a randomer's analysis.

This.

The report was leaked as part of a bad news soft landing strategy.

I posted in the previous thread re: HSE information strategy around this.
The HSE are very much in a 20th century mindset with regards their effort to control the flow of information.

The SBP publishing this story, wasn't done on a whim.
Nor was it done without actual editorial oversight and a rigourous source check or affording the HSE opportunity to pass comment.

It's good reporting, that many think it sensationalism is sometimes the price paid for being the 1st to print.

Rob A. Bank · 08-03-2020 02:10PM

iguana wrote: »

The virus lingers in the body for a long time during recovery. So even when people have stopped being symptomatic and feel recovered, they still have a viral load that shows up in tests, sometimes for weeks. This means that recovery rates lag an awful lot in the first few weeks/months of an outbreak. The good news however is, that when a virus lingers like this it usually means a person's antibodies become very strong and is an indication of a long period of immunity to follow.

You are speculating... the virus is new to science since the start of this year.

NO ONE knows the long term effect of this virus on antibodies or immunity

bennyl10 · 08-03-2020 02:10PM

Treasure Grumpy Tie wrote: »

Except that's not the current reality at all.

In your view.
A view which is not currently backed up by facts.

There’s 50,000 cases sure, the HSE are just hiding it from us and the WHO..

We current have 19 cases confirmed in Ireland. That is the reality

Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

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Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) Read warnings in OP