new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Mic 1972 · 24-02-2020 07:20PM

froog wrote: »

both methods are flawed.

personal option versus statistical science, interesting take

fritzelly · 24-02-2020 07:20PM

Jaysus give up with the numbers - you've polluted half the thread with the constant bickering about it.

Mic 1972 · 24-02-2020 07:21PM

BloodBath wrote: »

But you have been insisting that it's much higher.
As high as 10-30% when with the information I have provided it could only possibly be lower.

I never said that either, what are you on today?

Jin luk · 24-02-2020 07:22PM

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Take a breath there Jin. We’re low on oxygen tanks.

Have not got the time to be writing paragraphs and . Tis the end times

24-02-2020 07:23PM

bodhrandude wrote: »

Maybe everyone here in Boards should email HSE like nuts, bombard them with emails to update their website and info. I've to play my session in Cholis tonight, probably full of Italian, Japanese, South Korean and Singapore tourists hahaha.

I already tweeted them, will do so again.

24-02-2020 07:23PM

Jin luk wrote: »

Have not got the time to be writing paragraphs and . Tis the end times

Mic 1972 · 24-02-2020 07:23PM

fritzelly wrote: »

Jaysus give up with the numbers - you've polluted half the thread with the constant bickering about it.

Thank you, I think a couple of users are taking the "number" issue a bit too personal, god knows why...

bodhrandude · 24-02-2020 07:24PM

I think the mods need to step in and ask one or two of the lads to take a wee holiday for a while.

Dan Jaman · 24-02-2020 07:27PM

fr336 wrote: »

Anyone on here bought a face mask or even wore one yet?

Luckily, just a few months ago I bought a 3M welding fumes mask from.... CHINA :eek:

Tis fine.
I'll wear it around Aldi and nobody will even notice.

givyjoe · 24-02-2020 07:27PM

BloodBath wrote: »

Oh yes it's ironic that I'm having a go at someone who's been saying crap like as much as 30% of people who will catch this will die.

Point out what I've said that is wrong then and back it up with "facts".

I've done it several times already and it hasn't been countered once.

Whatever you say chief.

Fr_Dougal · 24-02-2020 07:35PM

BloodBath wrote: »

Oh yes it's ironic that I'm having a go at someone who's been saying crap like as much as 30% of people who will catch this will die.

Point out what I've said that is wrong then and back it up with "facts".

I've done it several times already and it hasn't been countered once.

The manner in which you’re posting comes across as bullying.

MD1990 · 24-02-2020 07:35PM

The Death Rate depends on whether you receive the care need.

The fact the serious/critical condition has gone up 20-22% in the last few days is worrying.
But we dont know how many undected mild cases there are.

We should know more in a month on the true death rate

froog · 24-02-2020 07:36PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

personal option versus statistical science, interesting take

do you not see the obvious flaw with your preferred method though? it would only be accurate if the time to fatality was very close to time to being declared "recovered". i.e. the ratio is maintained over time. which it is clearly not.

at best the second method is as inaccurate as the first (just trending different directions as you point out yourself) and the truth lies somewhere in between and will converge once hopefully this thing calms down.

Mic 1972 · 24-02-2020 07:40PM

froog wrote: »

do you not see the obvious flaw with your preferred method though? it would only be accurate if the time to fatality was very close to time to being declared "recovered". i.e. the ratio is maintained over time. which it is clearly not.

at best the second method is as inaccurate as the first (just trending different directions as you point out yourself) and the truth lies somewhere in between and will converge once hopefully this thing calms down.

One method is flawed by definition
The other one is a dynamic rate, it's the correct method but with live daily updates. What's relevant about it is the consistent trend. The curve has almost plateaued at 9% , let's hope it falls below that

bodhrandude · 24-02-2020 07:43PM

Hahaha just seen on the PROC Covid-19 thread that Ryanair's stock has went down 10%, I wonder if that's flight cancellations to a certain country.

ceadaoin. · 24-02-2020 07:48PM

MD1990 wrote: »

But we dont know how many undected mild cases there are.

We should know more in a month on the true death rate

Exactly, its been confirmed that most verified cases have mild or no symptoms.

That means theres tons of people out in the wild thinking they are fine or just have a cold, but spreading it all the same. If that's the case then the true number infected is going to be multiples of the current figures, which means the death rate is far lower than speculated. It's possible that we might not ever know the true figure because most of those people will never be tested, unless they are found to have a link to another case.

froog · 24-02-2020 07:49PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

One method is flawed by definition
The other one is a dynamic rate, it's the correct method but with live daily updates. What's relevant about it is the consistent trend. The curve has almost plateaued at 9% , let's hope it falls below that

the hopkins site is down right now but i'll take your word for it. if it is indeed plateauing at 9% then it's very worrying.

bear in mind there's certainly a huge amount of unreported mild cases which would bring the figure down substantially.

Duke of Url · 24-02-2020 07:52PM

froog wrote: »

the hopkins site is down right now but i'll take your word for it. if it is indeed plateauing at 9% then it's very worrying.

bear in mind there's certainly a huge amount of unreported mild cases which would bring the figure down substantially.

It’s not flawed

Both ways are accurate ways of reporting depending on what type of answer your looking for.

VinLieger · 24-02-2020 07:52PM

froog wrote: »

the hopkins site is down right now but i'll take your word for it. if it is indeed plateauing at 9% then it's very worrying.

bear in mind there's certainly a huge amount of unreported mild cases which would bring the figure down substantially.

Ahh but according to mic these cases dont exist cus they aren't in the stats so theres no point in discussing them

Candamir · 24-02-2020 07:54PM

fritzelly wrote: »

Another 18 Americans who were passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise ship test positive for coronavirus after being evacuated to the U.S

Said it before but everyone of them is infected

I think the experience from the ship backs up the decision not to temperature screen or test asymptomatic people at ports. It would be futile, give people a false sense of security, and be a massive waste of resources.

I’d say we’ll see positive tests continue to come from those passengers. The idea that the ship was anything even approaching a quarantine situation was crazy from the start.

Mic 1972 · 24-02-2020 07:55PM

froog wrote: »

the hopkins site is down right now but i'll take your word for it. if it is indeed plateauing at 9% then it's very worrying.

bear in mind there's certainly a huge amount of unreported mild cases which would bring the figure down substantially.

the rate is also here, if you look at the closed cases section
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
on the same page with you on the impact of unreported cases, but as they are unreported we will never know

Jin luk · 24-02-2020 07:55PM

Seventh death in italy

froog · 24-02-2020 07:57PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

the rate is also here, if you look at the closed cases section
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
on the same page with you on the impact of unreported cases, but as they are unreported we will never know

looks like it hasn't plateaued to me from that.

Mic 1972 · 24-02-2020 07:57PM

VinLieger wrote: »

Ahh but according to mic these cases dont exist cus they aren't in the stats so theres no point in discussing them

they aren't in the stats does not equal they don't exist
what's unclear about it?

drkpower · 24-02-2020 07:59PM

McGiver wrote: »

Feckin HSE ****....no instruction to call helpline, saying that risk is "low", total complacency. "We will try to contact who is infected" - laughable. List of countries outdated, only mentions China.

Not a big fan, but compare with NHS! I'm sure they will put Italy on that list in few days. While HSE still have only China there.

The substance of the advice between the nhs and HSE is broadly the same (other than the detail in affected countries which is clearly more complete on nhs)I’m sure that when we have a case here, we will move to at least low-moderate

silverharp · 24-02-2020 08:00PM

I don't think anybody will go hungry but that's not the point, shopping in this situation is stressful

https://twitter.com/____snafu____/status/1231875199496314880

Mic 1972 · 24-02-2020 08:02PM

froog wrote: »

looks like it hasn't plateaued to me from that.

If you click on show graph you can see the trend, it hasn't plateaued yet. The daily drop is getting smaller and smaller, it's plateauing around that figure, possibly drop another 1-2% who knows
That's the number I check everyday

no.8 · 24-02-2020 08:02PM

bodhrandude wrote:

Hahaha just seen on the PROC Covid-19 thread that Ryanair's stock has went down 10%, I wonder if that's flight cancellations to a certain country.

Why is that funny?

Beasty · 24-02-2020 08:02PM

Last time it was a "suggestion"/request

Now it's an instruction

Stop all the tit for tat stuff on the stats. None of us are in full possession of the facts and none of us can draw any "definitive" conclusions. Bottom line. It's serious. Not serious in Ireland at this stage, but may become so. Anyone caught up in this is not going to take much solace from any stats however they are complied

Any questions PM me - do not respond to this warning in-thread

VinLieger · 24-02-2020 08:05PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

they aren't in the stats does not equal they don't exist
what's unclear about it?

You are unwilling to entertain your precious stats could be completely skewed due to god knows how many unreported cases or deaths there are out there and insist on using the ridiculous term "accurate" when nothing can be called that yet

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Comments