new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

froog

Mic 1972 wrote: »

At the moment 2 methods have been used. They both are based solely on actual data. There is no unreported cases included in the stats below

Flawed method
Deaths / Total cases = 3% (this is trending up)

Accurate method
Deaths / Closed cases = 9% (this is trending down)

both methods are flawed.

Mic 1972

BloodBath wrote: »

Oh yes it's ironic that I'm having a go at someone who's been saying crap like as much as 30% of people who will catch this will die.

Point out what I've said that is wrong then and back it up with "facts".

I've done it several times already and it hasn't been countered once.

You are having a go at the official data mate LOL!
stop being obsessed with me, you are putting the rest of the people off in here

littlemac1980

bodhrandude wrote: »

Fleadhs, Arts Festivals, Cooking festivals, list endless, gigs in Dublin, Cork etc. (5/10 for me to, concerned enough.)

Paddy’s Day parades (Worldwide?!)

fr336

Anyone on here bought a face mask or even wore one yet?

Carol25

I think people on this thread need to be mindful that as we type and hypothesise, there are people really sick, seriously ill, and those who may die. Not all of these are fitting the criteria of older / other health issues. It is a tragic, frightening, and unknown situation. Look at how the Italian and other authorities are acting rather than just listening to what they are saying...I wouldn't pay too much attention to the Irish authorities at this time...it's more of a Father Ted type response which I worry will backfire badly if people become extremely ill...:(:eek:

[Deleted User]

Jin luk wrote: »

So many people dont realise how serious this is spanish flu started slow but then wiped everything in its path, look at any chart of serious disease and covid 19 comes second to spanish flu ahead of swine flu on case confirmed at this stage on each serious outbreak people also thing its like our colds and flu when its not look at the critical numbers these people who are critical are more than likely not going to survive it which my estimates are coming in at around 18% death rate compared to what the media is saying it is at 3 or 4% china has clearly lied about fatalities iran and italy situation kind of confirms this unless these asian countries somehow adds the numbers up different

Take a breath there Jin. We’re low on oxygen tanks.

BloodBath

Mic 1972 wrote: »

me using the 2-3% number? LOL
i spent hours in here insisting that number not to be used!

But you have been insisting that it's much higher.

As high as 10-30% when with the information I have provided it could only possibly be lower.

Mic 1972 wrote: »

You are having a go at the official date mate LOL!
stop being obsessed with me, you are putting the rest of the people off in here

I'm not obsessed with you. I have a gander at this thread every couple of days to see what's going on and see you posting the same nonsense every time no matter how many times you get called out on it.

I can only hope I'm right about it not being as bad as early numbers suggest.

Still a deadly virus that will kill a lot of people and I am worried about it getting to Ireland. We all have elderly loved ones.

Mic 1972

froog wrote: »

both methods are flawed.

personal option versus statistical science, interesting take

fritzelly

Jaysus give up with the numbers - you've polluted half the thread with the constant bickering about it.

Mic 1972

BloodBath wrote: »

But you have been insisting that it's much higher.
As high as 10-30% when with the information I have provided it could only possibly be lower.

I never said that either, what are you on today?

Jin luk

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Take a breath there Jin. We’re low on oxygen tanks.

Have not got the time to be writing paragraphs and . Tis the end times

[Deleted User]

bodhrandude wrote: »

Maybe everyone here in Boards should email HSE like nuts, bombard them with emails to update their website and info. I've to play my session in Cholis tonight, probably full of Italian, Japanese, South Korean and Singapore tourists hahaha.

I already tweeted them, will do so again.

[Deleted User]

Jin luk wrote: »

Have not got the time to be writing paragraphs and . Tis the end times

Mic 1972

fritzelly wrote: »

Jaysus give up with the numbers - you've polluted half the thread with the constant bickering about it.

Thank you, I think a couple of users are taking the "number" issue a bit too personal, god knows why...

bodhrandude

I think the mods need to step in and ask one or two of the lads to take a wee holiday for a while.

Dan Jaman

fr336 wrote: »

Anyone on here bought a face mask or even wore one yet?

Luckily, just a few months ago I bought a 3M welding fumes mask from.... CHINA :eek:


Tis fine.
I'll wear it around Aldi and nobody will even notice.

givyjoe

BloodBath wrote: »

Oh yes it's ironic that I'm having a go at someone who's been saying crap like as much as 30% of people who will catch this will die.

Point out what I've said that is wrong then and back it up with "facts".

I've done it several times already and it hasn't been countered once.

Whatever you say chief.

Fr_Dougal

BloodBath wrote: »

Oh yes it's ironic that I'm having a go at someone who's been saying crap like as much as 30% of people who will catch this will die.

Point out what I've said that is wrong then and back it up with "facts".

I've done it several times already and it hasn't been countered once.

The manner in which you’re posting comes across as bullying.

MD1990

The Death Rate depends on whether you receive the care need.

The fact the serious/critical condition has gone up 20-22% in the last few days is worrying.
But we dont know how many undected mild cases there are.

We should know more in a month on the true death rate

froog

Mic 1972 wrote: »

personal option versus statistical science, interesting take

do you not see the obvious flaw with your preferred method though? it would only be accurate if the time to fatality was very close to time to being declared "recovered". i.e. the ratio is maintained over time. which it is clearly not.

at best the second method is as inaccurate as the first (just trending different directions as you point out yourself) and the truth lies somewhere in between and will converge once hopefully this thing calms down.

Mic 1972

froog wrote: »

do you not see the obvious flaw with your preferred method though? it would only be accurate if the time to fatality was very close to time to being declared "recovered". i.e. the ratio is maintained over time. which it is clearly not.

at best the second method is as inaccurate as the first (just trending different directions as you point out yourself) and the truth lies somewhere in between and will converge once hopefully this thing calms down.

One method is flawed by definition
The other one is a dynamic rate, it's the correct method but with live daily updates. What's relevant about it is the consistent trend. The curve has almost plateaued at 9% , let's hope it falls below that

bodhrandude

Hahaha just seen on the PROC Covid-19 thread that Ryanair's stock has went down 10%, I wonder if that's flight cancellations to a certain country.

ceadaoin.

MD1990 wrote: »

But we dont know how many undected mild cases there are.

We should know more in a month on the true death rate

Exactly, its been confirmed that most verified cases have mild or no symptoms.

That means theres tons of people out in the wild thinking they are fine or just have a cold, but spreading it all the same. If that's the case then the true number infected is going to be multiples of the current figures, which means the death rate is far lower than speculated. It's possible that we might not ever know the true figure because most of those people will never be tested, unless they are found to have a link to another case.

froog

Mic 1972 wrote: »

One method is flawed by definition
The other one is a dynamic rate, it's the correct method but with live daily updates. What's relevant about it is the consistent trend. The curve has almost plateaued at 9% , let's hope it falls below that

the hopkins site is down right now but i'll take your word for it. if it is indeed plateauing at 9% then it's very worrying.

bear in mind there's certainly a huge amount of unreported mild cases which would bring the figure down substantially.

Duke of Url

froog wrote: »

the hopkins site is down right now but i'll take your word for it. if it is indeed plateauing at 9% then it's very worrying.

bear in mind there's certainly a huge amount of unreported mild cases which would bring the figure down substantially.

It’s not flawed

Both ways are accurate ways of reporting depending on what type of answer your looking for.

VinLieger

froog wrote: »

the hopkins site is down right now but i'll take your word for it. if it is indeed plateauing at 9% then it's very worrying.

bear in mind there's certainly a huge amount of unreported mild cases which would bring the figure down substantially.

Ahh but according to mic these cases dont exist cus they aren't in the stats so theres no point in discussing them

Candamir

fritzelly wrote: »

Another 18 Americans who were passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise ship test positive for coronavirus after being evacuated to the U.S

Said it before but everyone of them is infected

I think the experience from the ship backs up the decision not to temperature screen or test asymptomatic people at ports. It would be futile, give people a false sense of security, and be a massive waste of resources.

I’d say we’ll see positive tests continue to come from those passengers. The idea that the ship was anything even approaching a quarantine situation was crazy from the start.

Mic 1972

froog wrote: »

the hopkins site is down right now but i'll take your word for it. if it is indeed plateauing at 9% then it's very worrying.

bear in mind there's certainly a huge amount of unreported mild cases which would bring the figure down substantially.

the rate is also here, if you look at the closed cases section
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
on the same page with you on the impact of unreported cases, but as they are unreported we will never know

Jin luk

Seventh death in italy

froog

Mic 1972 wrote: »

the rate is also here, if you look at the closed cases section
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
on the same page with you on the impact of unreported cases, but as they are unreported we will never know

looks like it hasn't plateaued to me from that.