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General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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    #2372
    Strazdas
    Registered Users Posts: 18,279 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    So the Sinn Fein poll is saying that FG will get their lowest percentage of the vote in their history( lowest previously is 19.8 % in 1948 with 31 seats ) ?

    I think FG will lose seats but 17 percent isn't happening.

    Indeed, the disastrous FF government of 2011 which had just crashed the economy got 17.5%


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    #2373
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,210 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Why would it be unstable, present Govn't in Finland is 4 parties.
    All of these are not very far apart on the political spectrum.


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    #2374
    L1011
    Registered Users Posts: 68,116 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Water John wrote: »
    Why would it be unstable, present Govn't in Finland is 4 parties.
    All of these are not very far apart on the political spectrum.

    Finland has a history of stable multi party coalitions. Ireland, well, doesn't - except for the Rainbow and two of the three merged within two years of it ending.


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    #2375
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,682 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Water John wrote: »
    Why would it be unstable, present Govn't in Finland is 4 parties.
    All of these are not very far apart on the political spectrum.

    Well Ireland isn't Finland. I'm of the opinion that the more parties in government the more TDs that could get the hump and cause problems. It's normally been FF/FG and a mudguard of a party.


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    #2376
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,210 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    The Lb and Soc Dems may re merge having worked together in Govn't.
    The Rainbow Govn't was indeed stable even if FG and DL came from the very ends of the political spectrum.


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    #2377
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,682 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Water John wrote: »
    The Lb and Soc Dems may re merge having worked together in Govn't.
    The Rainbow Govn't was indeed stable even if FG and DL came from the very ends of the political spectrum.

    What political gene pool would Catherine Murphy be from ? She came into the dail as an independent didn't she ?


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    #2378
    Heraldoffreeent
    Registered Users Posts: 1,467 ✭✭✭Heraldoffreeent


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    What political gene pool would Catherine Murphy be from ? She came into the dail as an independent didn't she ?

    Was she not a workers party/DL Councillor beforehand?


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    #2379
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,682 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Heraldoffreeent wrote: »
    Was she not a workers party/DL Councillor beforehand?

    I don't know being honest. I know she was an independent TD and then there was the Denis O Brien issue which was honestly the time I first really came to know who she was.


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    #2380
    mgn
    Registered Users Posts: 1,904 ✭✭✭mgn


    Ruth Coppingers seat must be under pressure, it's the first time i've seen her with makeup on since she was elected.


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    #2381
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,210 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    It seems that now a storm will roll in on Sat. Originally thought this would hold till Sunday. Might supress turnout a little.


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    #2382
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 6,780 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Water John wrote: »
    Why would it be unstable, present Govn't in Finland is 4 parties.
    All of these are not very far apart on the political spectrum.

    I wasn't calling it unstable due to the number of parties (although that certainly doesn't help). I was calling it unstable because even with 4 parties it couldn't reach 80. In reality you want to have at least 83 or 84 (to insulate from defections, resignatons, deaths or other unexpected losses) so you'd then need a bunch of independents. Each separate independent ratchets up the complexity of the government talks.

    There is recent precedence for this though. In 2007 the majority required was 84 and the government managed to get a working majority of 89 with FF (77), the Greens (6), PDs (2) + 4 Independents.


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    #2383
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,682 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Water John wrote: »
    It seems that now a storm will roll in on Sat. Originally thought this would hold till Sunday. Might supress turnout a little.

    Earlier Saturday then as I'd heard Saturday night Sunday morning. Low turnout doesn't help SF sure it doesn't ?


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    #2384
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 6,780 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Heraldoffreeent wrote: »
    Was she not a workers party/DL Councillor beforehand?

    Yes and she also had a brief period in the Labour party before quitting that and going Independent. She won Charlie McCreavey's seat as an Independent in the by-election when he went off to Europe.


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    #2385
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,682 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    mgn wrote: »
    Ruth Coppingers seat must be under pressure, it's the first time i've seen her with makeup on since she was elected.

    I'd say she isn't the only member of that group under the kosh. What TV Programme is she on ?


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    #2386
    droidus
    Registered Users Posts: 1,545 ✭✭✭droidus


    Survation have a good record in the UK. I wouldn't discount that poll out of hand.


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    #2387
    Leonard Hofstadter
    Registered Users Posts: 5,540 ✭✭✭Leonard Hofstadter


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    What political gene pool would Catherine Murphy be from ? She came into the dail as an independent didn't she ?

    She was in the Labour party, but left them a long time ago. She was also in the Worker's Party way back in the day, and Democratic Left between that and Labour, so she's been around the block.

    For someone who is normally so competent and effective, I was surprised at how poor she was in the 7 way leader's debate, but she'll walk Kildare North.


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    #2388
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 67,490 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    droidus wrote: »
    Survation have a good record in the UK. I wouldn't discount that poll out of hand.

    If there is a massive protest vote welling up then that would explain the left being so high.

    But as said, a political party poll should be treated very cautiously.


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    #2389
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,210 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Leaders Debate requires a specific skill set. I don't overuse to judge a politician and their competence ability.


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    #2390
    Heraldoffreeent
    Registered Users Posts: 1,467 ✭✭✭Heraldoffreeent


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    I don't know being honest. I know she was an independent TD and then there was the Denis O Brien issue which was honestly the time I first really came to know who she was.

    Yeah according to her Wiki she was a few years in Labout after the Merger with DL, then stood as an indo and won McCreeveys seat when he became EU commissioner, in a bye-election.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catherine_Murphy_(politician)

    Edit:Sorry, most of this is a repeat of what was said upthread, Didn't see the replies until i'd posted.


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    #2391
    sid waddell
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭sid waddell


    Water John wrote: »
    It seems that now a storm will roll in on Sat. Originally thought this would hold till Sunday. Might supress turnout a little.

    The Spring Tide, the Gilmore Gale, now Storm Mary Lou.


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    #2392
    sid waddell
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭sid waddell


    hotmail.com wrote: »
    My point was about economic issues and self righteousness and using the term populism.

    None of the examples of negative populism I gave were economic though, maybe rhetoric against "welfare spongers" could be classed as quasi-economic populism but it's more about the creation of an out group to vilify.

    Interestingly, Eoin O'Broin himself proclaims that Sinn Fein are a populist party, and has even written an article called "In Defence Of Populism".

    https://magill.ie/politics/defence-populism


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    #2393
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users Posts: 26,243 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    In theory, if a really large number of people were unhappy and spoiled their votes, that would get some attention. Say the spoiled votes quadrupled from last time, people would sit up.

    In practice this is not going to happen, but in practice your individual vote is extremely unlikely to matter anyway, so do whatever makes you feel better even if it is spoiling your vote.
    I think turnout, rather than the spoiled votes tally, functions as an indicator of alienation on the part of the electorate. Politicians fret much more about a fall in turnout, because that indicates that people who were motivated to vote in the past have now turned off. Whereas spoiled votes may indicate (a) people who will never be satisfied, or (b) people who are a bit dim as much as (c) people who are registering a protest.

    You want to communicate your protest to your TD? Write him a letter. He'll pay far more attention to one letter than to a thousand spoiled votes, and the letter will much more effectively communicate the reason for your protest.


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    #2394
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    I don't think turnout is a good measure.

    If turnout is low, are people alienated or are they just not bothered because things are going OK?


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    #2395
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users Posts: 26,243 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    I don't think turnout is a good measure.

    If turnout is low, are people alienated or are they just not bothered because things are going OK?
    Or is turnout low because, on the day, the weather was foul?

    You always have to read the entrails. The point is that experience shows that people who are alienated are far more likely to respond by not voting than by going to the polling station and writing naughty words on the ballot paper. So politicians and parties treat the turnout, not the spoiled vote rate, as a much more useful metric.


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    #2396
    bazermc
    Registered Users Posts: 3,116 ✭✭✭bazermc


    I can’t fricking wait till Sunday and exit Poll Saturday night.


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    #2397
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    droidus wrote: »
    Survation have a good record in the UK. I wouldn't discount that poll out of hand.
    Britain is easier to predict with its FPTP. STV is not an easy one to call at all and as someone pointed out above just because a party seems to have support doesn't mean they'll reap the rewards in constituencies but just putting up a candidate.


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    #2398
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    Just for fun the lowest FG percentage of the vote was in 1948 with 19.8 % of the vote and it's highest is in November 1982 with 39.2 % and 70 seats.

    FF lowest was 2011 with 17.5 % of the vote and 20 seats. Their highest is 51.9 % and 77 seats in 1939.
    In these other examples the competing party was way out ahead not neck and neck so headline percentage points play a lesser part in this election.


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    #2399
    Banner2theend
    Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭Banner2theend


    Another day and the Indo are right at it again. Nice nasty little digs swipes aimed at MM and MLM. How they could get away with this clear pro-FG bias, that even Fox News will be most proud of, is a damning indictment on the mainstream media.

    As the auld saying goes Kevin Keegan style "I'll luv it if we beat them". Note the we relates to Leo and co.

    #bewaretheIndo


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    #2400
    L1011
    Registered Users Posts: 68,116 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »
    She was in the Labour party, but left them a long time ago. She was also in the Worker's Party way back in the day, and Democratic Left between that and Labour, so she's been around the block.

    For someone who is normally so competent and effective, I was surprised at how poor she was in the 7 way leader's debate, but she'll walk Kildare North.

    The WP-DL-Labour thing was all the one party with renames and a merger.

    She left Labour in fractious circumstances in the early 2000s and stayed Independent until there became the opportunity to form the SDs due to there being plenty of similar ex-Labour reps around to create the critical mass from.


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    #2401
    seamus
    Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Are there any more reputable polls supposed to be coming out?

    Be interesting to see if Tuesday night's circus will have made any change.


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