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General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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Comments

  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    easypazz wrote: »
    Some shower of muppets in this country if they give fianna fail 60 seats.

    Fine gael werent great but fianna fail were much worse.

    Problem is who else is there that can form a govt. I'm a lifelong FG voter, that is until they got into Govt and absolutely screwed me. I'll never vote FG ever again. I'm not saying I'm going to vote FF but I did better under them than FG. SD's will get my #1, same as last election.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,541 ✭✭✭Leonard Hofstadter


    FF won't get 60 seats on current numbers, they'd want to poll at least 27-28% to do that. Martin did well and it is true that FF do outperform the polls, so they probably will come in around 25-26 and that would get them mid 50s if SF and FG are both a good bit behind that.

    FG's 32 seats is believable if they really do get 20 (they got 31 in 2002 on 22.5% of the vote, but there was a lot of bad luck in that one), but after last night's performance I think they and FF will have gained back some of the votes lost to SF and they're more likely to come back with around 40 seats or so.

    FG are likely to lose seats in Dún Laoghaire (I expect only one seat they have three now), Meath East, Dublin Bay South, Galway West, Mayo, Wexford and Laois-Offaly. They could even get no seats in Cork South West of all places, entirely possible with Jim Daly not running and Michael Collins is sure to be re-elected. Cork North Central is another possibility for a seat loss, there's only one seat as it is but it was the seat of one Dara Murphy. Waterford might be dodgy. Donegal is dangerous territory, too.

    Tipperary will surely get them a seat (no FG seat there at the moment), and Cavan-Monaghan is another possibility.

    For FF I see gains right around Dublin, Dún Laoghaire is definite and I'd expect them to remove Lord Ross in Dublin Rathdown.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,600 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Of the major parties I think SF are by far the most populist. They peddle a lot of easy answers without ever having a coherent plan for how they could actually implement all of these promises in a balanced way. When pressed, their tactic is to come up with some ill-defined mechanism for generating income that generally wouldn't survive the slightest bit of scrutiny. They have been doing this for years. For example, 15 years ago it was to nationalise all of the oil off the west coast of Ireland. 10 years ago it was to burn the bond holders. In this election it's to implement a wealth tax and to go after the multi-nationals.

    They're anti-carbon tax, anti-property tax and oppose raising the retirement age. The property tax stance is particularly galling since this is generally a pillar of left-wing parties around the world since it's a tax on wealth rather than income and yet they oppose it.


    Every party has some element of populism though. If they didn't they would not get elected. A classic example was the other night during the climate change debate even Catherine Martin of the Greens wouldn't say that we needed to reduce the number of cattle in this country despite any independent study of the environment and our emissions saying that this is a necessity.

    The least populist government we ever had was the first few years of the FG-LAB coalition from 2011 since the IMF were dictating policy and did what they saw as necessary to balance the books as opposed what would be popular.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,258 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Donegal poll in the Tír Conaill Tribune:

    https://twitter.com/BarryWhyte85/status/1225135746866085893


    Heard a bit about this poll on RTE radio and thought they were giving O`Donnell a strong chance for the last seat v Gallagher.
    From reading that it seems very unlikely.


    2 SF, 1 FG, 2 FF. with Pringle losing to MacLochlainn seems the likely outcome.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,258 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    is_that_so wrote: »
    60 looks high for FF in light of recent polls being anyway accurate.


    Yates, for all his bluster can be a very canny operator when it comes to calling numbers. That said I would be more inclined to see McGee`s prediction as possibly more credible.
    Either way if either of the two is close to the result a disaster for FG with FF leap-frogging them by those kind of numbers.


    From Michael Noonan`s promoting of Pascal Donohoe I suspect FG private polling is showing much the same and Varadkar`s days are numbered.


    SF predictions before last night and today I would have thought low from both, but now I`m not so sure.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,781 ✭✭✭✭keane2097


    The moment when FG officially threw in the towel:

    https://twitter.com/FineGael/status/1225166488052682754

    Did Fianna Fail have a campaign like this in the 90s re:Spring & Bruton?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,600 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I went through all 39 constituencies and this was the final tally that I arrived at:
    • Fianna Fáil - 56
    • Fine Gael - 34
    • Sinn Fein - 29
    • Greens - 9
    • Labour - 8
    • Social Democrats - 5
    • Solidarity/PBP - 2
    • Aontú - 1
    • Independents/Other - 16


    The interesting thing for me was that despite SF's poll numbers they're running a lot of unknown, most likely no-hopers, in a lot of rural seats


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 71,051 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The moment when FG officially threw in the towel:

    https://twitter.com/FineGael/status/1225166488052682754

    This from a party whose leader was warning us all this morning about ushering in Trump style politics???


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,779 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    A SF poll published tonight puts SF on 25, FF on 22 and FG on 17.

    Survation up till Feb 2.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,172 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    A SF poll published tonight puts SF on 25, FF on 22 and FG on 17.

    Survation up till Feb 2.

    Another completely untested polling agency in Ireland but **** it; everyones doing it and it ties in with others from the same time


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,172 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    • Fine Gael - 34

    Just escaping a Noonan (and with 6 less seats on offer at that) in that case.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    A SF poll published tonight puts SF on 25, FF on 22 and FG on 17.

    Survation up till Feb 2.

    Full party details (allegedly):

    https://twitter.com/EOBroin/status/1225189208287010816


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,779 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    L1011 wrote: »
    Another completely untested polling agency in Ireland but **** it; everyones doing it and it ties in with others from the same time

    The figures means it's almost impossible to predict the 4th and 5th seats in constituencies, partly because SF isn't running enough candidates. Mad election.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Brussels Sprout, that puts,
    FF + Lb + SD + Green = 78
    A few Inds makes it over 80.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,541 ✭✭✭Leonard Hofstadter


    I'll take any poll commissioned by a political party with a massive grain of salt


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    All the left parties add up to 48% in the O'Broin poll, which seems rather inflated.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,441 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    A SF poll published tonight puts SF on 25, FF on 22 and FG on 17.

    Survation up till Feb 2.

    So the Sinn Fein poll is saying that FG will get their lowest percentage of the vote in their history( lowest previously is 19.8 % in 1948 with 31 seats ) ?

    I think FG will lose seats but 17 percent isn't happening.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,172 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    So the Sinn Fein poll is saying that FG will get their lowest percentage of the vote in their history( lowest previously is 19.8 % in 1948 with 31 seats ) ?

    I think FG will lose seats but 17 percent isn't happening.

    Margin of Error on that sample size should be about +/-3%; also its a completely untested polling agency.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,600 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    L1011 wrote: »
    Just escaping a Noonan (and with 6 less seats on offer at that) in that case.

    Yes, the big problem for them is that I just can't see them winning 2 seats in many constituencies. The only one I had for them was Dun Laoghaire.

    Water John wrote: »
    Brussels Sprout, that puts,
    FF + Lb + SD + Green = 78
    A few Inds makes it over 80.

    Yes, but that would be far too unstable so I reckon they'd have to ask FG to go for a C&S agreement which would allow FF + 2 out of the other 3 to form a government.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,441 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Just for fun the lowest FG percentage of the vote was in 1948 with 19.8 % of the vote and it's highest is in November 1982 with 39.2 % and 70 seats.

    FF lowest was 2011 with 17.5 % of the vote and 20 seats. Their highest is 51.9 % and 77 seats in 1939.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,386 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    So the Sinn Fein poll is saying that FG will get their lowest percentage of the vote in their history( lowest previously is 19.8 % in 1948 with 31 seats ) ?

    I think FG will lose seats but 17 percent isn't happening.

    Indeed, the disastrous FF government of 2011 which had just crashed the economy got 17.5%


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Why would it be unstable, present Govn't in Finland is 4 parties.
    All of these are not very far apart on the political spectrum.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,172 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Water John wrote: »
    Why would it be unstable, present Govn't in Finland is 4 parties.
    All of these are not very far apart on the political spectrum.

    Finland has a history of stable multi party coalitions. Ireland, well, doesn't - except for the Rainbow and two of the three merged within two years of it ending.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,441 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Water John wrote: »
    Why would it be unstable, present Govn't in Finland is 4 parties.
    All of these are not very far apart on the political spectrum.

    Well Ireland isn't Finland. I'm of the opinion that the more parties in government the more TDs that could get the hump and cause problems. It's normally been FF/FG and a mudguard of a party.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    The Lb and Soc Dems may re merge having worked together in Govn't.
    The Rainbow Govn't was indeed stable even if FG and DL came from the very ends of the political spectrum.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,441 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Water John wrote: »
    The Lb and Soc Dems may re merge having worked together in Govn't.
    The Rainbow Govn't was indeed stable even if FG and DL came from the very ends of the political spectrum.

    What political gene pool would Catherine Murphy be from ? She came into the dail as an independent didn't she ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,468 ✭✭✭Heraldoffreeent


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    What political gene pool would Catherine Murphy be from ? She came into the dail as an independent didn't she ?

    Was she not a workers party/DL Councillor beforehand?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,441 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Was she not a workers party/DL Councillor beforehand?

    I don't know being honest. I know she was an independent TD and then there was the Denis O Brien issue which was honestly the time I first really came to know who she was.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,904 ✭✭✭mgn


    Ruth Coppingers seat must be under pressure, it's the first time i've seen her with makeup on since she was elected.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    It seems that now a storm will roll in on Sat. Originally thought this would hold till Sunday. Might supress turnout a little.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,600 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Water John wrote: »
    Why would it be unstable, present Govn't in Finland is 4 parties.
    All of these are not very far apart on the political spectrum.

    I wasn't calling it unstable due to the number of parties (although that certainly doesn't help). I was calling it unstable because even with 4 parties it couldn't reach 80. In reality you want to have at least 83 or 84 (to insulate from defections, resignatons, deaths or other unexpected losses) so you'd then need a bunch of independents. Each separate independent ratchets up the complexity of the government talks.

    There is recent precedence for this though. In 2007 the majority required was 84 and the government managed to get a working majority of 89 with FF (77), the Greens (6), PDs (2) + 4 Independents.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,441 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Water John wrote: »
    It seems that now a storm will roll in on Sat. Originally thought this would hold till Sunday. Might supress turnout a little.

    Earlier Saturday then as I'd heard Saturday night Sunday morning. Low turnout doesn't help SF sure it doesn't ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,600 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Was she not a workers party/DL Councillor beforehand?

    Yes and she also had a brief period in the Labour party before quitting that and going Independent. She won Charlie McCreavey's seat as an Independent in the by-election when he went off to Europe.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,441 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    mgn wrote: »
    Ruth Coppingers seat must be under pressure, it's the first time i've seen her with makeup on since she was elected.

    I'd say she isn't the only member of that group under the kosh. What TV Programme is she on ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,545 ✭✭✭droidus


    Survation have a good record in the UK. I wouldn't discount that poll out of hand.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,541 ✭✭✭Leonard Hofstadter


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    What political gene pool would Catherine Murphy be from ? She came into the dail as an independent didn't she ?

    She was in the Labour party, but left them a long time ago. She was also in the Worker's Party way back in the day, and Democratic Left between that and Labour, so she's been around the block.

    For someone who is normally so competent and effective, I was surprised at how poor she was in the 7 way leader's debate, but she'll walk Kildare North.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 71,051 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    droidus wrote: »
    Survation have a good record in the UK. I wouldn't discount that poll out of hand.

    If there is a massive protest vote welling up then that would explain the left being so high.

    But as said, a political party poll should be treated very cautiously.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Leaders Debate requires a specific skill set. I don't overuse to judge a politician and their competence ability.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,468 ✭✭✭Heraldoffreeent


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    I don't know being honest. I know she was an independent TD and then there was the Denis O Brien issue which was honestly the time I first really came to know who she was.

    Yeah according to her Wiki she was a few years in Labout after the Merger with DL, then stood as an indo and won McCreeveys seat when he became EU commissioner, in a bye-election.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catherine_Murphy_(politician)

    Edit:Sorry, most of this is a repeat of what was said upthread, Didn't see the replies until i'd posted.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭sid waddell


    Water John wrote: »
    It seems that now a storm will roll in on Sat. Originally thought this would hold till Sunday. Might supress turnout a little.

    The Spring Tide, the Gilmore Gale, now Storm Mary Lou.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭sid waddell


    My point was about economic issues and self righteousness and using the term populism.

    None of the examples of negative populism I gave were economic though, maybe rhetoric against "welfare spongers" could be classed as quasi-economic populism but it's more about the creation of an out group to vilify.

    Interestingly, Eoin O'Broin himself proclaims that Sinn Fein are a populist party, and has even written an article called "In Defence Of Populism".

    https://magill.ie/politics/defence-populism


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,846 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    In theory, if a really large number of people were unhappy and spoiled their votes, that would get some attention. Say the spoiled votes quadrupled from last time, people would sit up.

    In practice this is not going to happen, but in practice your individual vote is extremely unlikely to matter anyway, so do whatever makes you feel better even if it is spoiling your vote.
    I think turnout, rather than the spoiled votes tally, functions as an indicator of alienation on the part of the electorate. Politicians fret much more about a fall in turnout, because that indicates that people who were motivated to vote in the past have now turned off. Whereas spoiled votes may indicate (a) people who will never be satisfied, or (b) people who are a bit dim as much as (c) people who are registering a protest.

    You want to communicate your protest to your TD? Write him a letter. He'll pay far more attention to one letter than to a thousand spoiled votes, and the letter will much more effectively communicate the reason for your protest.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    I don't think turnout is a good measure.

    If turnout is low, are people alienated or are they just not bothered because things are going OK?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,846 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    I don't think turnout is a good measure.

    If turnout is low, are people alienated or are they just not bothered because things are going OK?
    Or is turnout low because, on the day, the weather was foul?

    You always have to read the entrails. The point is that experience shows that people who are alienated are far more likely to respond by not voting than by going to the polling station and writing naughty words on the ballot paper. So politicians and parties treat the turnout, not the spoiled vote rate, as a much more useful metric.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,116 ✭✭✭bazermc


    I can’t fricking wait till Sunday and exit Poll Saturday night.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    droidus wrote: »
    Survation have a good record in the UK. I wouldn't discount that poll out of hand.
    Britain is easier to predict with its FPTP. STV is not an easy one to call at all and as someone pointed out above just because a party seems to have support doesn't mean they'll reap the rewards in constituencies but just putting up a candidate.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    Just for fun the lowest FG percentage of the vote was in 1948 with 19.8 % of the vote and it's highest is in November 1982 with 39.2 % and 70 seats.

    FF lowest was 2011 with 17.5 % of the vote and 20 seats. Their highest is 51.9 % and 77 seats in 1939.
    In these other examples the competing party was way out ahead not neck and neck so headline percentage points play a lesser part in this election.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭Banner2theend


    Another day and the Indo are right at it again. Nice nasty little digs swipes aimed at MM and MLM. How they could get away with this clear pro-FG bias, that even Fox News will be most proud of, is a damning indictment on the mainstream media.

    As the auld saying goes Kevin Keegan style "I'll luv it if we beat them". Note the we relates to Leo and co.

    #bewaretheIndo


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,172 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    She was in the Labour party, but left them a long time ago. She was also in the Worker's Party way back in the day, and Democratic Left between that and Labour, so she's been around the block.

    For someone who is normally so competent and effective, I was surprised at how poor she was in the 7 way leader's debate, but she'll walk Kildare North.

    The WP-DL-Labour thing was all the one party with renames and a merger.

    She left Labour in fractious circumstances in the early 2000s and stayed Independent until there became the opportunity to form the SDs due to there being plenty of similar ex-Labour reps around to create the critical mass from.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Are there any more reputable polls supposed to be coming out?

    Be interesting to see if Tuesday night's circus will have made any change.


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