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new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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  • #182
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,577 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    The reproductive rate of the virus — the number of people, on average, that each infected person infects — is between 1.4 and 2.5.
    This needs to be brought below 1.0.

    Also, recent WHO data also shows evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission (4-generations).


  • #183
    bilston
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,021 ✭✭✭✭bilston


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    What is that as a percentage of China's population?

    820 out of 1.3 billion is teeney. However a quick look at some of the videos coming out on Twitter would suggest that 820 cases is likely a very conservative figure.


  • #184
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,194 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    bilston wrote: »
    820 out of 1.3 billion is teeney. However a quick look at some of the videos coming out on Twitter would suggest that 820 cases is likely a very conservative figure.

    If only the internet wasn't so closely guarded in China - were they not already deleting info posted by people


  • #185
    SafeSurfer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,240 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    bilston wrote: »
    820 out of 1.3 billion is teeney. However a quick look at some of the videos coming out on Twitter would suggest that 820 cases is likely a very conservative figure.

    It’s spread coincides with the largest annual movement of people in the planet. Chinese New Year. If anyone has been on a train in China around this time of year the potential of a serious epidemic will be obvious.

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • #186
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 18,046 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    It's in Vietnam now and it's the same Lunar New Year with everyone travelling around. Now worried about the flu itself but wouldn't like to be stuck in a locked-down city similar to the ones in China.


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  • #187
    ChikiChiki
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,949 ✭✭✭ChikiChiki


    bilston wrote: »
    820 out of 1.3 billion is teeney. However a quick look at some of the videos coming out on Twitter would suggest that 820 cases is likely a very conservative figure.

    At this stage I'd imagine the number is multiples of 820.


  • #188
    maninasia
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,635 ✭✭✭maninasia


    Quantum Erasure wrote: »
    sounds like it'd be a cool place to see, under normal circumstances...

    Those places are filthy and the animals kept in terrible conditions .

    https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI0NzMxOTY3NQ==&mid=2247486410&idx=1&sn=3dde3c8ba8db3b73b6c9deeb594c6ef4&chksm=e9b096dedec71fc8051260e7b1dd602161986d352bda1fdf0195c7618272c81cc7de1b07c88d#rd


  • #189
    clever user name
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 537 ✭✭✭clever user name


    I'm in the next province up from Hubei (Xi'an). Things are pretty normal here at the moment. Certainly at lot more people wearing masks, including myself (not that I plan on going anywhere). I was going to head down to the city wall tomorrow to see the New Year show, but I think I shall give that a miss.

    On a side note, the air quality in northern China is absolutely shocking this time of year, that can't be helping the situation.

    49432475507_cc01d5cae4.jpg


  • #190
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,283 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    mikeecho wrote: »
    Where are you getting this info from ?

    Main-stream media isn't reporting those figures.

    I don't know why you are talking about mainstream media not reporting those figures. Those are pretty much the figures BBC News has. And they are giving the story loads of coverage. Loads of coverage on RTE news today as well.

    Edit: Maybe I have you taken up wrong.


  • #191
    ygolometsipe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 882 ✭✭✭ygolometsipe


    ~800-900 cases with 25 dead and you lock-down 6-8 cities. One of which has 11 million people.
    You arrest people and journalists for posting about the outbreak.
    Chinese citizen openly admitted to circumventing the screen process to get to France.
    CNY largest yearly migration of people.
    Virus has an average incubation period of 4 days but up to 14 days.

    Something tell me this is far worse than expected but I hope I am wrong.


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  • #192
    Scuid Mhór
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,326 ✭✭✭Scuid Mhór


    Quantum Erasure wrote: »
    The stupidity or sheer thoughtlessness of some people
    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jan/23/chinese-tourist-says-she-evaded-coronavirus-checks-fly-france
    Chinese tourist says she evaded coronavirus checks to fly to France:
    “I had a fever and a cough before I left – I was so scared. I quickly took some medicine and checked my temperature. Luckily the temperature was controlled and I had a smooth journey through the border.”

    How can this be anything other than mass murder by gross negligence?


  • #193
    Scuid Mhór
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,326 ✭✭✭Scuid Mhór


    ygolometsipe wrote: »
    ~800-900 cases with 25 dead and you lock-down 6-8 cities. One of which has 11 million people.
    You arrest people and journalists for posting about the outbreak.
    Chinese citizen openly admitted to circumventing the screen process to get to France.
    CNY largest yearly migration of people.
    Virus has an average incubation period of 4 days but up to 14 days.

    Something tell me this is far worse than expected but I hope I am wrong.

    Part of thinks that it could be plausible that this is an "overreaction" on China's part in order to look responsible - this is the best chance they have had to restore confidence in their role as a global power in the case of infectious outbreak since the SARS PR disaster seventeen years ago.


  • #194
    maninasia
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,635 ✭✭✭maninasia


    mikhail wrote: »
    Flu kills 100 or so people in Ireland annually. This thing has killed three people globally. It's important that the epidemiologists watch it carefully and take their preventative measures, but the sky isn't falling just yet.

    It's killed 17 probably quite a few more. But yes it's important to keep an eye on it more than anything right now.


  • #195
    ygolometsipe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 882 ✭✭✭ygolometsipe


    Scuid Mhór wrote: »
    Part of thinks that it could be plausible that this is an "overreaction" on China's part in order to look responsible - this is the best chance they have had to restore confidence in their role as a global power in the case of infectious outbreak since the SARS PR disaster seventeen years ago.

    You might be right. However 23 million people are on lockdown and the narrative is only 800 infected.
    Why lock up journalists?

    WHO is likely believing China right now and their ability to contain it however they will review in 10 days time.
    However the Chinese citizen that knew she was infected but still flew to France could have infected everyone on that flight. The passengers families could also be infected.
    The screening method is bull **** if you can just take "flu medication" and drive your temp down.

    It's all a bit odd to be fair.


  • #196
    Scuid Mhór
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,326 ✭✭✭Scuid Mhór


    ygolometsipe wrote: »
    You might be right. However 23 million people are on lockdown and the narrative is only 800 infected.
    Why lock up journalists?

    WHO is likely believing China right now and their ability to contain it however they will review in 10 days time.
    However the Chinese citizen that knew she was infected but still flew to France could have infected everyone on that flight. The passengers families could also be infected.
    The screening method is bull **** if you can just take "flu medication" and drive your temp down.

    It's all a bit odd to be fair.

    I agree with you on all points. Also I think you can contract the infection and not show symptoms until a few days later so any screening mechanism is essentially useless. If it were me I would be sending all passengers from danger zone flight origins back, or pre-emptively cancelling the flights.

    The fact that there is no cure/vaccine, that it has a high infection rate, and the fact that it is a very serious threat... I actually have no idea how travel is still being permitted. All it takes to start a pandemic in one country is one person.


  • #197
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Interesting question indeed! They have warned the virus is mutating so basically an unknown quantity. And they are rightly taking no risks and do right. And look at the death rate already?


    fritzelly wrote: »
    If this is no worse than the common flu and the numbers coming out of China are to be believed then why are they shutting down the country?


  • #198
    megatron989
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 207 ✭✭megatron989


    Been seeing some interesting pics coming out of people being taken in those plastic bubble stretchers by staff in full bio suits (in china). Mainly youtube guys reporting on it, so make of that what you will. The below is from wiki-

    Some posts on Weibo showed that hospitals in Wuhan have already been overloaded with thousands of people with fever and were highly critical of the reliability of the figures from the Chinese government although such posts are now deleted due to unknown reasons

    My feeling would be that their is more going on than we currently know.


  • #199
    mikhail
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,862 ✭✭✭mikhail


    megatron989 wrote: »
    Been seeing some interesting pics coming out of people being taken in those plastic bubble stretchers by staff in full bio suits (in china). Mainly youtube guys reporting on it, so make of that what you will. The below is from wiki-

    Some posts on Weibo showed that hospitals in Wuhan have already been overloaded with thousands of people with fever and were highly critical of the reliability of the figures from the Chinese government although such posts are now deleted due to unknown reasons

    My feeling would be that their is more going on than we currently know.
    They're building a new hospital in Wuhan, aiming to have it ready inside of a week. I expect they're not doing that to prop up the local building industry. That said, the numbers are for confirmed cases. There are probably loads of people there for testing, many of whom may have flu or heavy colds or something.


  • #200
    creditcarder
    Closed Accounts Posts: 494 ✭✭creditcarder


    Hmmmm, I wonder are foreign government using this as an excuse to isolate/investigate supposed chinese agents? Sounds silly, but it would be so easy to give a false positive off a suspicious person and lock them up for a few days. Tbh, you can give some moderately dubious conditions to someone under medical protection vs imprisonment.



    Conspiracy theory I know :P


  • #201
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,577 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    While the 2% risk rate doesn't really sound that bad, it's still way above regular seasonal flu, therefore could cause wider disruption as a result.

    World Health Organization (WHO) will likely declare the new coronavirus an emergency not just for China but declarw the epidemic of international concern , maybe within days?
    Assuming it keeps spreading {x13 Chinese cities on lockdown} and with the current reporduction rate.

    UK's Cobra to meet in 10mins to discuss it.
    PH-Eng already advised anyone showing up at the Dr's (with travel history and symptons), to be lisolated and locked in the room, probably until hazmaz folks arrive for safe extraction.


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  • #202
    mathie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,103 ✭✭✭mathie


    https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-doctors-wuhan-patients-protective-gear-2020-1?r=US&IR=T
    A doctor in the central Chinese city of Wuhan said thousands of patients were waiting for hours to see doctors.

    The doctor at a Wuhan hospital told BBC News that there had been "an alarming rate of spread" of the deadly novel coronavirus, or 2019-nCoV, over the past two weeks in the city.

    BBC News declined to identify the doctor to protect her identity.

    The new coronavirus can pass from human to human, and it had infected at least 830 people and killed 25 as of Friday morning.

    As a precaution, the entire city of Wuhan and the nearby cities of Huanggang and Ezhou have been locked down in an unprecedented quarantine against the disease, affecting about 23 million people.


  • #203
    dennyk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,862 ✭✭✭dennyk


    Could be pretty bad if it gets a foothold in the US. Between the lack of affordable health care (meaning no one will go to the doctor until they're literally dying) and the lack of paid sick leave and the fact that "Sorry, boss, I can't come in, I'm dying of a coronavirus infection" could get you fired on the spot and leave you starving and homeless, especially in jobs with lots and lots of public contact like retail and food service, that **** will spread like wildfire from all the sick employees passing it along to every customer.


  • #204
    branie2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,326 ✭✭✭✭branie2


    Very worrying


  • #205
    bnt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,159 ✭✭✭✭bnt


    I expect we will start hearing conspiracy stories about this virus, such as the ones surrounding Event 201, a pandemic simulation exercise held in October last year:
    The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation hosted Event 201, a high-level pandemic exercise on October 18, 2019, in New York, NY. The exercise illustrated areas where public/private partnerships will be necessary during the response to a severe pandemic in order to diminish large-scale economic and societal consequences.
    Conspiracy theorists love anything that involves Bill Gates, don't they? :eek:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoLw-Q8X174

    You are the type of what the age is searching for, and what it is afraid it has found. I am so glad that you have never done anything, never carved a statue, or painted a picture, or produced anything outside of yourself! Life has been your art. You have set yourself to music. Your days are your sonnets.

    ―Oscar Wilde predicting Social Media, in The Picture of Dorian Gray



  • #206
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,578 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »
    While the 2% risk rate doesn't really sound that bad, it's still way above regular seasonal flu, therefore could cause wider disruption as a result.

    The CFR is not accurate though, it takes time for people to die.


  • #207
    RobertKK
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,775 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    https://twitter.com/jamesdeeganMC/status/1220430225923854336?s=20

    Still moving too on the plate...


  • #208
    ChikiChiki
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,949 ✭✭✭ChikiChiki


    RobertKK wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/jamesdeeganMC/status/1220430225923854336?s=20

    Still moving too on the plate...

    :eek::eek:

    I've to go to a wedding in China this year. Reading lots of stuff that is putting me off. I will be sticking to McDonalds.


  • #209
    cj maxx
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,014 ✭✭✭✭cj maxx


    RobertKK wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/jamesdeeganMC/status/1220430225923854336?s=20

    Still moving too on the plate...
    That gave me the shudders !


  • #210
    Snow Garden
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    ChikiChiki wrote: »
    :eek::eek:

    I've to go to a wedding in China this year. Reading lots of stuff that is putting me off. I will be sticking to McDonalds.

    China is an amazing place and it's prominent cities are high tech wonders. Lovely people and lovely food too.


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  • #211
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,578 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    cjmc wrote: »
    That gave me the shudders !

    That.. can't be real, can it??


This discussion has been closed.
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