new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

wakka12

ceadaoin. wrote: »

So by all accounts, this virus is nowhere near as bad as SARS for most people. The confirmed cases in the US are only showing "mild" symptoms and there are likely thousands of people in china who have it and not needed medical care. Almost all the confirmed deaths were older people with under lying conditions. So why all the panic and fear mongering? Something like Ebola becoming widespread is something to worry about, doesn't seem like this is zombie apocalypse level or anything.

What would be way worse than over reacting to an unknown new highly infectious disease would be under reacting, epidemic will very quickly turn to pandemic and if the disease turns out to be more dangerous than first thought well then theres nothing than can be done anymore. Better to contain it then study it

ChikiChiki

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Have Sky news upped the scaremongering yet? I love it when they get going.

I am looking forward to a rolling census of confirmed diagnoses on the bottom corner. If they colour code it continentally it should be class.

To the poster who just bragged about purchasing 20 face masks, you cannot be phucking serious when you say that you actually put one on whilst travelling on the Dart in the morning? Please tell me your on a wind here, please?

Kay Burley must be in transit.

Looks a bit chaotic all the same.

https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1220731224051867648?s=19

igCorcaigh

2 cases in France now.
To be expected.

I'm not sure if there have been any cases of H2H spread outside of China.

ceadaoin.

wakka12 wrote: »

What would be way worse than over reacting to an unknown new highly infectious disease would be under reacting, epidemic will very quickly turn to pandemic and if the disease turns out to be more dangerous than first thought well then theres nothing than can be done anymore. Better to contain it then study it

The authorities dont seem to be under reacting though which is good. The US have diverted all flights from the region to 4 airports where screening is taking place for example. I'm talking about the average person who is not in China and has no contact with anyone from there getting panicked and the media running hysterical headlines. No need for it.

Duke of Url

ceadaoin. wrote: »

The authorities dont seem to be under reacting though which is good. The US have diverted all flights from the region to 4 airports where screening is taking place for example. I'm talking about the average person who is not in China and has no contact with anyone from there getting panicked and the media running hysterical headlines. No need for it.

Clickbait headlines and Dramatic breaking news is the way forward now.

No need for investigative journalism anymore.

4068ac1elhodqr

There is still so many unknowns, but it looks like anyone in a high risk area, is not only gonna have to buy the 3M (type N95) facemasks,
but they'll also now need swimmers (sealed) eye goggles:

A top medic who contracted Coronavirus says the deadly respiratory disease is so contagious it can be transmitted through the eyes.
He says he developed conjunctivitis in his left eye after returning to Beijing and around three hours later he began had a fever and severe catarrh.

Gringo180

What is the big deal about this virus? 80 thousand people die a year from the flu. This wont kill even 8 thousand people a year.

fritzelly

How many people have been thru the screening, passed it and then a few days later the virus blows up. Like the latest case in the US, flew over on the 13th, now in hospital...

Kermit.de.frog

Emgergency Co-ordination Center meeting called in Dublin to discuss the crisis

4068ac1elhodqr

Gringo180 wrote: »

What is the big deal about this virus? 80 thousand people die a year from the flu. This wont kill even 8 thousand people a year.

See any of the previous pages.

This is a novel virus (has no vaccine, immunity or cure) and it's full effects are not know, it may also mutate, estimated to have 70%+ similar genome sequence to the early-2000 breakout known as SARS-CoV.
Not enough is known about the epidemiology of 2019-nCoV to draw definitive conclusions about the full clinical features of disease.

Seasonal flu kills about 0.1%, this one is around the 2.0% mark (so far) still that 's much lower than MERS/SARS, but 2% is the same rate as the 1918 Spanish Flu.

whiskeyman

Gringo180 wrote: »

What is the big deal about this virus? 80 thousand people die a year from the flu. This wont kill even 8 thousand people a year.

It's hiding something or makes good news instead of something.

I heard someone say the key indicator if the world should be worried is check the markets.
All are not fearful so something else is at play.

Gringo180

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

See any of the previous pages.

This is a novel virus (has no vaccine, immunity or cure) and it's full effects are not know, it may also mutate, estimated to have 70%+ similar genome sequence to the early-2000 breakout known as SARS-CoV.
Not enough is known about the epidemiology of 2019-nCoV to draw definitive conclusions about the full clinical features of disease.

Seasonal flu kills about 0.1%, this one is around the 2.0% mark (so far) still that 's much lower than MERS/SARS, but 2% is the same rate as the 1918 Spanish Flu.

Spanish Flu mortality rate was much higher than 2% more like 10-20%

igCorcaigh

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

See any of the previous pages.

This is a novel virus (has no vaccine, immunity or cure) and it's full effects are not know, it may also mutate, estimated to have 70%+ similar genome sequence to the early-2000 breakout known as SARS-CoV.
Not enough is known about the epidemiology of 2019-nCoV to draw definitive conclusions about the full clinical features of disease.

Seasonal flu kills about 0.1%, this one is around the 2.0% mark (so far) still that 's much lower than MERS/SARS, but 2% is the same rate as the 1918 Spanish Flu.

The CFR of this could be higher. There is a fairly long incubation period, and it takes time for cases to resolve. This is only the first month, but CFR estimates are tracking that of SARS.

This does not seem as infectious as flu though, I've seen R0 estimates of about 2 to 3, which itself is cause for concern.

We will have to wait to see if sustained H2H transmission occurs outside China.

But, whatever we are seeing now, is only a snapshot of the disease spread one or two weeks ago.

Duke of Url

I would suspect 10s of thousands or 100s of thousands of people have contracted Coronavirus if cases are showing up in France and the US.

I would also suspect that these people are treating it as a seasonal flu.

igCorcaigh

Duke of Url wrote: »

I would suspect 10s of thousands or 100s of thousands of people have contracted Coronavirus if cases are showing up in France and the US.

I would also suspect that these people are treating it as a seasonal flu.

Lot of mild cases that do not present, yes seems so.

That's good news for CFR but bad for R0/transmission.

Wibbs

Gringo180 wrote: »

Spanish Flu mortality rate was much higher than 2% more like 10-20%

That's more what I understood too G. I remember my grandmother telling me of that dose. She helped lay out the bodies of the dead on her street. She would have been 20-21. She got it, but for her it was a couple of days of fever and then Ok, but she remembered being tired for months after. For others it was vicious and they died within a few days of a terrible fever.

4068ac1elhodqr

Gringo180 wrote: »

Spanish Flu mortality rate was much higher than 2% more like 10-20%

It was very low for initial comparable wave in early 1918.

Later that year, in Winter a 2nd wave was more lethal, mainly caused by poor conditions that favored the spread of a new deadlier strain.
Those with severe cases were often crowded together in hospitals and camps, increasing transmission of a more lethal form of the virus. Millions of troops in very harsh conditions may well have exaggerated the 2nd wave figures.
Isolation and basic treatment or modern hygene practices were simply not available.

Thankfully by the 3rd final wave, the rapidly mutating virus likely evolved over time, into less lethal strains (a jab didn't ever become available back then). This is predicted by models of natural selection. Because highly lethal strains kill their host rapidly, so they cannot spread as easily as less lethal strains.

Perhaps 2-5% might be a more realistic figure (when directly comparing conditions) from then to now.

Duke of Url

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

It was very low for initial comparable wave in early 1918.

Later that year, in Winter a 2nd wave was more lethal, mainly caused by poor conditions that favored the spread of a new deadlier strain.
Those with severe cases were often crowded together in hospitals and camps, increasing transmission of a more lethal form of the virus. Millions of troops in very harsh conditions may well have exaggerated the 2nd wave figures.
Isolation and basic treatment or modern hygene practices were simply not available.

Thankfully by the 3rd final wave, the rapidly mutating virus likely evolved over time, into less lethal strains (a jab didn't ever become available back then). This is predicted by models of natural selection. Because highly lethal strains kill their host rapidly, so they cannot spread as easily as less lethal strains.

Perhaps 2-5% might be a more realistic figure (when directly comparing conditions) from then to now.

Source?..... Just kidding

I’m actually interested in reading up on the Spanish flu. Any good links about the history of Spanish flu?

4068ac1elhodqr

Duke of Url wrote: »

Source?..... Just kidding
I’m actually interested in reading up on the Spanish flu. Any good links about the history of Spanish flu?

Guess the difficulty would be comparing a like-for-like flu with very, very different conditions, and a world war underway. They also had nothing for treating secondary bacterial infections of flu.
China is a total world away from where it was 20yrs ago, today they're creating a large modular hospital in 10days which is outstanding work.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/ten-myths-about-1918-flu-pandemic-180967810/

4068ac1elhodqr

Let's hope there isn't 'mutation waves' of this current one (hence the importance of isolation of a Novel virus).
There always is in the movies, usually with flashing red dots on a world map, and bunch of suits around a big table.

fritzelly

In four days the number of confirmed cases (believing the Chinese) has gone from 200 to 1000
I highly doubt the 1000 is anywhere near the real number as most people will just sweat it out.

Quantum Erasure

941 confirmed cases, 26 dead

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

griffin100

China is building a new 1,000 bed hospital to deal with the outbreak in a matter of a few days.

https://m.facebook.com/cbcnews/videos/2463130930681899/

https://news.sky.com/video/wuhan-builds-hospital-in-response-to-pneumonia-viral-11916280

Wounder how much that’s costing them?

rafatoni

griffin100 wrote: »

China is building a new 1,000 bed hospital to deal with the outbreak in a matter of a few days.

https://m.facebook.com/cbcnews/videos/2463130930681899/

https://news.sky.com/video/wuhan-builds-hospital-in-response-to-pneumonia-viral-11916280

Wounder how much that’s costing them?

Not 2.4 billion anyway, you can stick your money on that.

ChikiChiki

griffin100 wrote: »

China is building a new 1,000 bed hospital to deal with the outbreak in a matter of a few days.

https://m.facebook.com/cbcnews/videos/2463130930681899/

https://news.sky.com/video/wuhan-builds-hospital-in-response-to-pneumonia-viral-11916280

Wounder how much that’s costing them?

They've been known build metros and subways in under a year.

igCorcaigh

It's amazing what a state can do with low cost labour and lax health and safety laws.

Duke of Url

griffin100 wrote: »

China is building a new 1,000 bed hospital to deal with the outbreak in a matter of a few days.

https://m.facebook.com/cbcnews/videos/2463130930681899/

https://news.sky.com/video/wuhan-builds-hospital-in-response-to-pneumonia-viral-11916280

Wounder how much that’s costing them?

Not much, they did it before in 2003 for the SARS outbreak in a week and seem to be using the same idea

In 2003 China erected a hospital on Beijing's rural outskirts in barely a week to cater to a rapidly rising number of patients suffering from SARS, or Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, which killed 349 people in mainland China and 299 in Hong Kong in 2002-2003.

Xiaotangshan Hospital consisted of prefabricated structures and Xinhua reported that Wuhan was building the new facility based on the same model.

Duke of Url

igCorcaigh wrote: »

It's amazing what a state can do with low cost labour and lax health and safety laws.

It’s amazing what you can’t get done in Ireland with extremely high cost labour.

creditcarder

whiskeyman wrote: »

It's hiding something or makes good news instead of something.

I heard someone say the key indicator if the world should be worried is check the markets.
All are not fearful so something else is at play.

Yeah, I try and avoid conspiracy theories, but there is something else going on here. I'm not sure what tbh, but the strangeness is not the disease itself but how much it is being talked about when there are more serious issues (Australia being one of them, Brexit another, and the whole Uighir thing)

creditcarder

rafatoni wrote: »

Not 2.4 billion anyway, you can stick your money on that.

Man, that is a kick in the theet with the whole red envelope culture in China. You are absolutely correct, but fudge me.