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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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  • #6632
    jimmycrackcorm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,417 ✭✭✭✭jimmycrackcorm


    thecretinhop wrote: »
    i am not a fan of EU Varadkar etc but this deal does look decent, or best of bad bunch.
    i am bewildered why DUP fighting it...

    When the first words a DUP new born is taught to say, its not mama or dadda, but ULSTER SAYS NO!


  • #6633
    irishfeen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,069 ✭✭✭irishfeen


    Peston on ITV saying there is a good chance this will pass on Saturday, ironically it could very well be the rebel Labour MP’s and not the DUP that ensure its passage.


  • #6634
    dublinman1990
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,925 ✭✭✭dublinman1990


    ITV's Robert Peston has reported on the News at Ten that 19 of 20 rebel Tory conservative MPs will vote for BJ's deal on Saturday.


  • #6635
    lola85
    Closed Accounts Posts: 667 ✭✭✭lola85


    sliabh 1956 wrote: »
    Why is Miriam so worried about the DUP they are not really too concerned about us why must be allways expected to appease them when they could nt give two figs about the Republic. She was te same some weeks ago on a debate about the backstop.

    Her brother is FF.

    She will do anything to show Coveney up.


  • #6636
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    Bambi wrote: »
    I was desperate to avoid undermining the GFA, so much for that. I thought Leo and everyone else here was too. So much for that

    I was okay with a Hard Border due to a hard Brexit because that would have been resolved in quick time, once the brits felt the pinch.

    These two are not compatible. Your hope that a no-deal Brexit would have been short lived is a much greater risk than the risk that NI will decide they want a hard border at some point in the future, and the former actually does undermine the GFA while we wait to find out if you are right.

    Given the choice, I think the Irish government were right to make the choice they made.


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  • #6637
    Junkyard Tom
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,116 ✭✭✭✭Junkyard Tom


    Bambi wrote: »
    Once its agreed there's no recourse for international problems...

    With Britain out of the EU and Ireland still in we could make huge problems for the British. Britain's power relative to Ireland's plummets when they leave the EU.

    Stormont is a regional parliament the British would love to disappear. Even if, in the future, Stormont voted to align fully with Britain it does not follow that Britain will reflexively accept it and that there would be no consequences for it to consider.

    This is like the package Andy left for Red.

    644b31e918b5a86815a858189e54da3148ab5a30.jpg?mw=600

    All it is is hope for Unionists - it doesn't guarantee shit.


  • #6638
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Is it confirmed that Labour will whip against it? I am assuming they will but haven't heard any announcement to that effect. Corbyn said yesterday they wouldn't, but I have a feeling that will change.

    Labour’s Ronnie Campbell on RTE’s Primetime has said he will vote for this deal. How many more I wonder?


  • #6639
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    I'm basing it on this:

    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1184163018705424387

    Not an idea source I know, especially that the New European is reporting pretty much the opposite.

    Of course, this might not be accurate and things but Corbyn knows that he can't be party to a Conservative Brexit. It's the same reason that Harold Wilson called the referendum in 1975.



    That's a colossal if though.

    Dorries obviously just trying to stir things up and I heard that interview with Corbyn suggesting they wouldn't whip. I just think that's wishful thinking in his part, that they'll all row in behind him with no pressure. Think he'll have to listen to his front bench and apply the whip.


  • #6640
    Headshot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 55,709 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    Wouldnt it be brilliant if the DUP vote against it on Saturday and the Government loose by 9 votes

    DUP will be at fault in the eyes of the Tories and carnage will start


  • #6641
    theological
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    Also he added democratic input from the people of Northern Ireland into their own affairs in this deal. The concerns of a backstop without democratic say gone. Johnson has exceeded my expectation by a long way. He did what people in this thread said he couldn't do

    Repeating the same arguments that lost 3 years ago won't work. A deal that delivers good proximity to the EU whilst leaving is a compromise.

    This deal delivers Brexit. Time to get this done and move on.


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  • #6642
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,898 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Dorries obviously just trying to stir things up and I heard that interview with Corbyn suggesting they wouldn't whip. I just think that's wishful thinking in his part, that they'll all row in behind him with no pressure. Think he'll have to listen to his front bench and apply the whip.

    Fair point. Similar from Owen Jones:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1184935854814437376

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #6643
    bilston
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,012 ✭✭✭✭bilston


    irishfeen wrote: »
    Peston on ITV saying there is a good chance this will pass on Saturday, ironically it could very well be the rebel Labour MP’s and not the DUP that ensure its passage.

    Lucidtalk on Twitter seem to think it will fall anything between 1 and 16 votes short. Could be genuinely close and impossibly close to call.

    Labour must surely know that if it passes and the UK leaves the EU on 31st October then the Johnson led Tories could well win a big majority in an election.


  • #6644
    wally1990
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,231 ✭✭✭wally1990


    I know this might be a stupid question but I need to ask...


    All I am hearing is a deal is agreed with the EU

    Deal here, deal there and bit of information about whats in the deal on the news.

    Where can I actually read the deal or the key information?

    All the news articles I'm finding are just high level news with no actually details about the deal and all that is contained with the UK leaving the EU. I'm learning nothing from reading the general news.

    I want to be able to read about VAT, Goods and trade, Visa issues , tariffs, and much more.

    Is there any actual link to the deal OR a high quality article on the latest deal?

    Thanks all.
    wally1990 is online now Report Post


  • #6645
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,695 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Bambi wrote: »
    At least, you're admitting we compromised now

    Don't be at that ****e now Bambi
    Post 6522

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=111533921&postcount=6522

    I actually state 'We compromised...'

    I was desperate to avoid undermining the GFA, so much for that. I thought Leo and everyone else here was too. So much for that


    I was okay with a Hard Border due to a hard Brexit because that would have been resolved in quick time, once the brits felt the pinch.


    If someone had posted last week that Leo was going to give the NI assembly a perpetual veto on the border arrangement all these posters would havesaid that it would never happen and red lines wont be crossed blah blah

    Today they think its a wonderful idea, because Tony Connellys sources say its kosher. Mad stuff altogether. Its like when SF were running around waving flags and claiming victory when the provos finally saw sense and packed it in. Some people are easily sold a yarn :D

    How is the GFA 'compromised' by a 'consent' principle being enshrined in a WA?


  • #6646
    Infini
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,653 ✭✭✭Infini


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    I think if we are in the EU this time next month then Brexit is dead. We leave at Hallowe'en or we don't at all.

    The irony is that Britain wont leave at Halloween unless its a crash out scenario plain and simple, even if the deal is passed as they still have laws and preperations to be done before that can even happen.

    In addition the agreement is very unlikely to pass the commons as Boris has not got the votes and the only way this could be passed with enough votes is if it's put to the people vs remain. If he doesn't do that it simply wont get enough votes to cross the line.

    I think at this point in time Brexit is basically imploding in on itself as the cold hard grinding reality wears this ignorant ideology down to nothing, the house has enough support to agree to refuse a no deal leave scenario, Boris cannot trigger an election so long as there is no extention in place, Labour wont agree to this unless the option of that vs remain is an option, the UK has been humiliated by these charltains and ultimately even if there's the threat of a looming no deal happening I've no doubt that if that gun of no deal happening was put to parliment it would vote to rescind A50 rather than crash out and if Boris tries to stop it he gets removed and thrown under his own Brexit bus if it comes to it.

    One way or another it looks to be coming to an end in the next few weeks.


  • #6647
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    theological wrote: »
    Also he added democratic input from the people of Northern Ireland into their own affairs in this deal. The concerns of a backstop without democratic say gone. Johnson has exceeded my expectation by a long way. He did what people in this thread said he couldn't do

    Repeating the same arguments that lost 3 years ago won't work. A deal that delivers good proximity to the EU whilst leaving is a compromise.

    This deal delivers Brexit. Time to get this done and move on.

    If he can get it through the HoC then yes, I would say that he has done an amazing job that none of us would have thought possible just a few weeks ago. It's still a big if though.


  • #6648
    Dyr
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    Imreoir2 wrote: »
    Dublin clearly felt that the compromise was acceptable based on the significantly reduced risk of a hard border ever happening as a result of this arangement. I am inclined to agree with that decision.

    Holding hard to a red line when you are largely getting what you want anyway is the politics of a fool.

    I think that's a more reasonable analysis than the epic levels of denial others are putting forth

    But I think the reason for it was not based on risk assessment but rather that it was a calculated fudge that kicked the can down the road. Much like Camerons referendum pledge.

    If the Irish government had accepted this compromise as a risk worth taking then May would have been offered it. When the book is written on all this I think we'll find it was either that FG got a serious dose of the yips or their arm was twisted.


  • #6649
    bilston
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,012 ✭✭✭✭bilston


    Sam Coates on Sky News saying he thinks it's on course for 316 votes which is still 4 votes short.


  • #6650
    Rjd2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,270 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Labour’s Ronnie Campbell on RTE’s Primetime has said he will vote for this deal. How many more I wonder?

    He came out early in the day for the deal I think so he will have been factored into a lot of the predictions.

    Its pretty tricky to call the numbers but the most optimistic seem to be thinking Boris might get between 310-315 or so. I know its easy to say "only 4 more needed" but those 310 or whatever are not exactly a lock at the moment so then finding another 4 will require immense work from Boris.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1184943159912157210


  • #6651
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Labour’s Ronnie Campbell on RTE’s Primetime has said he will vote for this deal. How many more I wonder?

    No surprise, he voted against blocking no deal a couple of months back. Probably a hard-core of 4 or 5 like that id say, not sure if there's more than that.


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  • #6652
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    wally1990 wrote: »
    I know this might be a stupid question but I need to ask...


    All I am hearing is a deal is agreed with the EU

    Deal here, deal there and bit of information about whats in the deal on the news.

    Where can I actually read the deal or the key information?

    All the news articles I'm finding are just high level news with no actually details about the deal and all that is contained with the UK leaving the EU. I'm learning nothing from reading the general news.

    I want to be able to read about VAT, Goods and trade, Visa issues , tariffs, and much more.

    Is there any actual link to the deal OR a high quality article on the latest deal?

    Thanks all.
    wally1990 is online now Report Post

    Not sure if the legal text has been released just yet, though it will be soon if not.


  • #6653
    gmisk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,537 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    wally1990 wrote: »
    I know this might be a stupid question but I need to ask...


    All I am hearing is a deal is agreed with the EU

    Deal here, deal there and bit of information about whats in the deal on the news.

    Where can I actually read the deal or the key information?

    All the news articles I'm finding are just high level news with no actually details about the deal and all that is contained with the UK leaving the EU. I'm learning nothing from reading the general news.

    I want to be able to read about VAT, Goods and trade, Visa issues , tariffs, and much more.

    Is there any actual link to the deal OR a high quality article on the latest deal?

    Thanks all.
    wally1990 is online now Report Post
    Sky did a small item which highlighted (literally with a highlighted sections of the agreement) the 3 or 4 changes made to the last agreement in this version it was very clear.
    Will try and find it


  • #6654
    Dyr
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    FrancieBrady wrote: »



    How is the GFA 'compromised' by a 'consent' principle being enshrined in a WA?


    Was the GFA an agreement between the people of Northern Ireland with themselves?

    I don't recall unilateral withdrawal clauses for NI being a part of the deal.


  • #6655
    giveitholly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,246 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    I presume it will be evening time when this vote happens on Saturday?


  • #6656
    irishfeen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,069 ✭✭✭irishfeen


    It will be interesting to see if the DUP’s stance will move anyone in the ERG to vote against the deal... sounds coming out at the minute seem to suggest they will follow BJ.


  • #6657
    LeinsterDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    Bambi wrote: »
    You can't know anything of the sort to a certainty, you're being ridiculous.

    As before, be honest. You would have said the same about Trump, Johnson, Corbyn, Brexit etc. There goes another rubber tree plant, to quote a song on the topic

    This line of you can't know the future argument could as easily be applied to the back stop. As if said before. UK and EU agreed May's deal. A FTA is agreed the backstop is removed as there is no longer any need for it as per the WA. UK pulls out of the FTA. Hard border


  • #6658
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    giveitholly wrote: »
    I presume it will be evening time when this vote happens on Saturday?
    As it isn't an ordinary session I don't think there is a timetable as such but yes I imagine the vote will be late after lots of debate.

    Have Labour said how they will discipline members who don't show up to vote?


  • #6659
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,898 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Mod: Serious posts only please.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #6660
    gmisk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,537 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    wally1990 wrote: »
    I know this might be a stupid question but I need to ask...


    All I am hearing is a deal is agreed with the EU

    Deal here, deal there and bit of information about whats in the deal on the news.

    Where can I actually read the deal or the key information?

    All the news articles I'm finding are just high level news with no actually details about the deal and all that is contained with the UK leaving the EU. I'm learning nothing from reading the general news.

    I want to be able to read about VAT, Goods and trade, Visa issues , tariffs, and much more.

    Is there any actual link to the deal OR a high quality article on the latest deal?

    Thanks all.
    wally1990 is online now Report Post
    The below is nice and clear I thought
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50083026


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  • #6661
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,695 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Bambi wrote: »
    Was the GFA an agreement between the people of Northern Ireland with themselves?

    I don't recall unilateral withdrawal clauses for NI being a part of the deal.

    It's an agreement between the Governments of Ireland and The UK.

    Nowhere does it address a Customs or Single Market Border.

    The 'spirit' of the Agreement would preclude a customs border but that is it. So no compromise there.

    There is no 'legal' fall back in the GFA if a border is imposed.

    *Can you withdraw that remark about me 'finally accepting that it is a compromise' please?


This discussion has been closed.
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