Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

FrancieBrady · 17-10-2019 09:53PM

The EU building tonight. If it isn't a photoshop it's kind of amazing.

lawred2 · 17-10-2019 09:53PM

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

Not constructive to the thread but the replies to this have me in tears.

.

The responses are all quite well spirited as it goes.. it's quite funny without crossing into abusing auld Jamie.. much as it might be warranted

54and56 · 17-10-2019 09:54PM

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

I still can't understand the joy and celebrations on RTE as if world peace has just been announced, there's not a chance in hell this will get voted in on Saturday.

If you really believe that you should double your savings by putting it all on Paddy Power at 5/6 for it not passing on Saturday.

Junkyard Tom · 17-10-2019 09:57PM

Bambi wrote: »

The circumstances in which Norn Irish MLAs will vote for a hard border is really simple. A simple majority of them want it.

That's not circumstances that's a conclusion without even trying to hint at anything resembling the circumstances that might lead to it. Have you any notion of what circumstances might lead to a majority vote for a hard border that everyone except complete headbangers want?

yesterday it was impossible for Stormont to impose a hard border and today it is

Stormont can't impose shit. Westminster would have to impose it and deal with international problems if they even attempted to.

This is a you-can-have-any-colour-you-want-as-long-as-it's-black choice.

Dyr · 17-10-2019 09:58PM

sondagefaux wrote: »

In theory Stormont can opt-out. In practice, it won't.

If you know for a certainty that the Northern Ireland Assembly will never vote to opt-out of Northern Ireland following EU rules on product standards, customs and VAT, why wouldn't you allow the Assembly to have a say on the matter?

It's a theoretical concession that means nothing in practice.

You can't know anything of the sort to a certainty, you're being ridiculous.

As before, be honest. You would have said the same about Trump, Johnson, Corbyn, Brexit etc. There goes another rubber tree plant, to quote a song on the topic

ancapailldorcha · 17-10-2019 09:59PM

Having had time to think about it, I'm now a lot less worried. I honestly can't see this getting through Parliament on Saturday. Johnson just doesn't have the numbers. The Lib Dems are already against it as is Caroline Lucas. Corbyn has whipped against it, the Tory rebels will vote it down and now the DUP will reject it as anyone who knows anything about Ulster Unionism would expect them to. I think they'll take a portion of the ERG with them as well as Kate Hoey and maybe a few wavering Tories.

I think if we are in the EU this time next month then Brexit is dead. We leave at Hallowe'en or we don't at all.

FrancieBrady · 17-10-2019 10:01PM

Bambi wrote: »

You can't know anything of the sort to a certainty, you're being ridiculous.

As before, be honest. You would have said the same about Trump, Johnson, Corbyn, Brexit etc. There goes another rubber tree plant, to quote a song on the topic

So are you saying that we should never have compromised ever? Even if it looked like not compromising a tiny bit was going to cause the Hard Border that you are desparate to avoid?

Not sure what you are advocating here Bambi. 'Never Never Never' is the road to nowhere on this island.

Strazdas · 17-10-2019 10:01PM

Fascinating to hear Bridgen tell Prime Time he's sick of Brexit and will vote for the deal without a second thought

lola85 · 17-10-2019 10:03PM

3 years we finally got a deal they said on prime time??

May had a deal too???

Dyr · 17-10-2019 10:03PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Stormont can't impose shit. Westminster would have to impose it and deal with international problems if they even attempted to.

This is a you-can-have-any-colour-you-want-as-long-as-it's-black choice.

You're denying reality, read the bloody text. Once its agreed there's no recourse for international problems based on Stormont availing of the terms of the agreement. The only viable argument is that they definitely won't because we have a crystal ball that's sees 8 years into the future or some such.

sondagefaux · 17-10-2019 10:04PM

Bambi wrote: »

You can't know anything of the sort to a certainty, you're being ridiculous.

As before, be honest. You would have said the same about Trump, Johnson, Corbyn, Brexit etc. There goes another rubber tree plant, to quote a song on the topic

If this deal goes through and if the UK leaves the EU, and if the Withdrawal Agreement's provisions on a transitional period until the end of 2020 (which can be extended until 2021 under the provisions of the Withdrawal Agreement) are enacted, the earliest possible year a vote could be held is 2025.

What do you see in the demographics of Northern Ireland that might lead to a simple majority of MLAs voting in favour of opting-out of these arrangements in 2025?

What do you see in the demographics of Northern Ireland that might lead to a simple majority of MLAs voting in favour of opting-out of these arrangements in 2029?

Atlantic Dawn · 17-10-2019 10:04PM

54and56 wrote: »

If you really believe that you should double your savings by putting it all on Paddy Power at 5/6 for it not passing on Saturday.

5/6 is until year end, I'd only be interested in winnings on saturday, it would be easy money.

Rjd2 · 17-10-2019 10:06PM

54and56 wrote: »

If you really believe that you should double your savings by putting it all on Paddy Power at 5/6 for it not passing on Saturday.

Its 5/6 for a withdrawal bill not to pass in the whole of 2019 though not just this vote.

The price for the UK to still be in the EU come 1st November is 4/9 and the price for them to leave before then which is only possible through the vote on Saturday is 6/4.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/brexit/uk-to-leave-the-eu-by-the-31st-october-2019?selectionName=yes

Westernyelp · 17-10-2019 10:07PM

i was hoping for remain and wasn't sure if I wanted this deal to pass until I saw the reaction of Foster, Dodds and Bryson et al. it's hard not to to hope for a deal after that.
it's almost surreal seeing the Tories, ERG etc basically waving goodbye to Northern Ireland in their various talking head interviews.

Having said that I can't see it passing in the HOC

Junkyard Tom · 17-10-2019 10:08PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Brexit is dead.

I think that the main pro-Brexit players in the British Government feel that way too and that's why they've rushed this 'deal' through. The polls are showing a majority of the British public turning against any Brexit.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo · 17-10-2019 10:08PM

This deal puts the border in the Irish Sea. That's what the objective of the Irish government has been all along. So I think it should be looked at in a positive light.

But having Stormant vote every 4 years in perpetuity is not a good arrangement. Especially in the context of there not being any talk of a border poll.

Northern Ireland having a special status in the long term is the best way for the place to have peace and prosperity.

The chances of the Assembly voting for a hard border is a possibility. But it seems very unlikely. And if it goes to a Northern Ireland referendum, I really can't see there being 51% in favour.

Imreoir2 · 17-10-2019 10:08PM

Bambi wrote: »

For the last three years it was the risk their entire strategy was built around accepting. That if the Brits caused a hard border then so be it but they would not compromise on the backstop. You may have noticed Leo being quite vocal on the subject during the summer

That tune changed yesterday. Personally I think because EU got the compromises they wanted in other areas.

At least you admit the tune changed, you've some strange sorts of reverse brexiteers around here trying to deny the reality that:

The deal will give the Stormont Assembly the ability to impose a hard border by leaving the arrangement.

The Irish Government rolled back on their red line

Weird carry on tbh

Dublin clearly felt that the compromise was acceptable based on the significantly reduced risk of a hard border ever happening as a result of this arangement. I am inclined to agree with that decision.

Holding hard to a red line when you are largely getting what you want anyway is the politics of a fool.

ancapailldorcha · 17-10-2019 10:09PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I think that the main pro-Brexit players in the British Government feel that way too and that's why they've rushed this 'deal' through. The polls are showing a majority of the British public turning against any Brexit.

Pretty much. I was getting stressed earlier about this but as time went on the Parliamentary arithmetic is just so stacked against Johnson that the question is now whether or not we need to involve the courts to request the inevitable extension on the 19th.

sondagefaux · 17-10-2019 10:11PM

lola85 wrote: »

3 years we finally got a deal they said on prime time??

May had a deal too???

Yeah, I think everyone's being a bit premature.

May and the other EU27 leaders agreed a deal after tough negotiations.

The DUP opposed it, and the UK parliament voted against ratifying it.

Johnson and the other EU27 leaders agreed a deal after tough negotiations.

The DUP oppose it, and the UK parliament may vote against ratifying it.

If it doesn't get the support of a majority of MPs on Saturday, the Benn Act kicks in, Johnson is obliged to request an Article 50 extension, the EU27 aren't going to refuse it, and there's going to be either a second referendum before a general election (with Remain vs Johnson's Deal as a potential choice) or a general election which could lead to a second referendum or a No Deal Brexit or an acceptance of this proposed deal.

It's only about 10 months since all the hype about the deal that May and the EU27 negotiated.

We all know what happened to that.

Imreoir2 · 17-10-2019 10:11PM

Bambi wrote: »

Demographics has been delivering a united ireland for two decades now and its as far away as ever.

It most certainlty is not, recent polls have put support for a UI well ahead of where it has been in the past.

Joe_ Public · 17-10-2019 10:12PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Having had time to think about it, I'm now a lot less worried. I honestly can't see this getting through Parliament on Saturday. Johnson just doesn't have the numbers. The Lib Dems are already against it as is Caroline Lucas. Corbyn has whipped against it, the Tory rebels will vote it down and now the DUP will reject it as anyone who knows anything about Ulster Unionism would expect them to. I think they'll take a portion of the ERG with them as well as Kate Hoey and maybe a few wavering Tories.

I think if we are in the EU this time next month then Brexit is dead. We leave at Hallowe'en or we don't at all.

Is it confirmed that Labour will whip against it? I am assuming they will but haven't heard any announcement to that effect. Corbyn said yesterday they wouldn't, but I have a feeling that will change.

theological · 17-10-2019 10:12PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Having had time to think about it, I'm now a lot less worried. I honestly can't see this getting through Parliament on Saturday. Johnson just doesn't have the numbers. The Lib Dems are already against it as is Caroline Lucas. Corbyn has whipped against it, the Tory rebels will vote it down and now the DUP will reject it as anyone who knows anything about Ulster Unionism would expect them to. I think they'll take a portion of the ERG with them as well as Kate Hoey and maybe a few wavering Tories.

I think if we are in the EU this time next month then Brexit is dead. We leave at Hallowe'en or we don't at all.

Johnson has pulled a blinder in these negotiations. The deal is significantly better than Theresa May's deal. It provides for Northern Ireland's integration into the UK economy with rebates for VAT differences and tariffs. It provides for Northern Ireland's integration into the EU single market and it provides for the UK pursuing its own trade policy.

If he gets it through parliament then that exceeds existing success.

Dyr · 17-10-2019 10:13PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So are you saying that we should never have compromised ever? Even if it looked like not compromising a tiny bit was going to cause the Hard Border that you are desparate to avoid?

Not sure what you are advocating here Bambi. 'Never Never Never' is the road to nowhere on this island.

At least, you're admitting we compromised now

I was desperate to avoid undermining the GFA, so much for that. I thought Leo and everyone else here was too. So much for that

I was okay with a Hard Border due to a hard Brexit because that would have been resolved in quick time, once the brits felt the pinch.

If someone had posted last week that Leo was going to give the NI assembly a perpetual veto on the border arrangement all these posters would havesaid that it would never happen and red lines wont be crossed blah blah

Today they think its a wonderful idea, because Tony Connellys sources say its kosher. Mad stuff altogether. Its like when SF were running around waving flags and claiming victory when the provos finally saw sense and packed it in. Some people are easily sold a yarn

gooch2k9 · 17-10-2019 10:14PM

sondagefaux wrote: »

Yeah, I think everyone's being a bit premature.

May and the other EU27 leaders agreed a deal after tough negotiations.

The DUP opposed it, and the UK parliament voted against ratifying it.

Johnson and the other EU27 leaders agreed a deal after tough negotiations.

The DUP oppose it, and the UK parliament may vote against ratifying it.

If it doesn't get the support of a majority of MPs on Saturday, the Benn Act kicks in, Johnson is obliged to request an Article 50 extension, the EU27 aren't going to refuse it, and there's going to be either a second referendum before a general election (with Remain vs Johnson's Deal as a potential choice) or a general election which could lead to a second referendum or a No Deal Brexit or an acceptance of this proposed deal.

It's only about 10 months since all the hype about the deal that May and the EU27 negotiated.

We all know what happened to that.

The EU27 surely need a plan for the extension at this point; i.e. a commitment for a referendum. Polls are showing an election will result in a hung parliament again.

If they feel they can't move anymore on negotiations and the UK don't commit to a people's vote then what point would the extension have. I put a lot of the blame for this on the opposition. They have had chances to do something and squabbled amongst themselves. Complaining about Brexit being a Tory project and then putting their own parties ahead of the national interest is as bad.

ancapailldorcha · 17-10-2019 10:15PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Is it confirmed that Labour will whip against it? I am assuming they will but haven't heard any announcement to that effect. Corbyn said yesterday they wouldn't, but I have a feeling that will change.

I'm basing it on this:

https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1184163018705424387

Not an idea source I know, especially that the New European is reporting pretty much the opposite.

Of course, this might not be accurate and things but Corbyn knows that he can't be party to a Conservative Brexit. It's the same reason that Harold Wilson called the referendum in 1975.

theological wrote: »

If he gets it through parliament then that exceeds existing success.

That's a colossal if though.

liamtech · 17-10-2019 10:16PM

The View BBC 1 NI - 10:35 - this will be a heck of an episode i imagine so worth a watch -

followed by question time which will be delayed by comparison to bbc 1 london/uk

Dyr · 17-10-2019 10:17PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

It most certainlty is not, recent polls have put support for a UI well ahead of where it has been in the past.

And was it a sudden shift in demographics over the last two years that delivered the change? Catholic cloning centres starting pumping out 18 year olds perhaps?

Was it f***k. It was a seismic event in the form of a no deal brexit on the horizon that made people who would not have previously supported a UI start to seriously think it might be the best option for them

You completely missed the point

Beechwoodspark · 17-10-2019 10:19PM

Laura k talking her usual rubbish on bbc news

theguzman · 17-10-2019 10:19PM

I think Boris has played this very well, he met Leo and conceded alot of ground, he went to Michel Barnier and the EU and likewise he conceded to forge a deal,yet he conceded the bare minimum to win EU approval but enough to provoke the ire of the DUP.

He has set this up perfectly, he knows it won't pass Parliament, not a hope in hell, Boris tried and failed just like Teresa May but Boris can now blame everything on the DUP whilst himself, Mogg and the hard Brexiters crash out on Oct 31st without a deal. It will either be this deal or no deal, either way they don't care about the DUP and will happily deceive them and can blame them if there is Hard Brexit, and if the deal passes they are happy also because they don't care for the North.

Arlene, Dodd's and co. will oppose the deal because they want a hard brexit also and in the event of a no deal they will claim the moral high-ground and if this deal passes they will still complain and winge because there is nothing they love than a siege mentality. The cheek of Dodds tonight basically threatening a return to violence if they don't get their way and loyalist paramilitaries threatening Limerick above all places the other day.

sliabh 1956 · 17-10-2019 10:20PM

Why is Miriam so worried about the DUP they are not really too concerned about us why must be allways expected to appease them when they could nt give two figs about the Republic. She was te same some weeks ago on a debate about the backstop.

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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