Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

is_that_so · 16-10-2019 07:15PM

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Is that enough to pass it ?

It may not be but they are on his side, in name anyway, and if they vote No it's dead.

Imreoir2 · 16-10-2019 07:15PM

Gintonious wrote: »

So, can someone clear this up for me.

If this deal goes through, does the rest of the UK still leave the SM and CU? So in essence they get their hard Brexit at the expense of NI?

If this deal goes through there would be a transition period during which nothing changes, with a swift election and after that who knows. It would be for whatever government is elected to decide if they want GB to leave the SM and CU.

If they do go for a hard Brexit for GB, then it will not be at NI's expence, or at least not as much of an expence as NI being included in that hard Brexit would have been.

Itssoeasy · 16-10-2019 07:17PM

So according to British government sources there will be no deal done tonight.

A Shropshire Lad · 16-10-2019 07:19PM

Havent heard much mention of Canada ++ recently.

devnull · 16-10-2019 07:21PM

Won't be a deal tonight as unable to reach agreement.

Makes you think that it could be about attributing blame by going right to the wire and saying that they cannot get a deal because of the EU.

Eric Cartman · 16-10-2019 07:23PM

devnull wrote: »

Won't be a deal tonight as unable to reach agreement.

Makes you think that it could be about attributing blame by going right to the wire and saying that they cannot get a deal because of the EU.

wonder what the contentious issue is with the NI VAT rate, very possible the EU wants a guarantee that it wont drop below current rates which is the first thing Id imagine the UK government would want to do to drive exports up especially with christmas looming.

Capt'n Midnight · 16-10-2019 07:27PM

Infini wrote: »

Brown Envelope 2: Return of the backhander.

I mean seriously bribing the DUP worked so well the last time didn't it but wait a sec they didnt actually GET the money last time tho right? :P

Do you mean the Billion ? or the Metro Money* or Cash for Ash ? or the Community Halls Pilot Programme ? or Ian Paisley's Holidays ? or ...

*Anonymous donations are no longer allowed in NI , one of the few areas where NI has dropped an opt-out on UK wide laws.

New UK laws preventing employers keeping employees tips won't apply in NI

Strazdas · 16-10-2019 07:30PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

If this deal goes through there would be a transition period during which nothing changes, with a swift election and after that who knows. It would be for whatever government is elected to decide if they want GB to leave the SM and CU.

If they do go for a hard Brexit for GB, then it will not be at NI's expence, or at least not as much of an expence as NI being included in that hard Brexit would have been.

Are you sure that's correct? My understanding is that the UK leaves the SMCU on Brexit Day and merely agrees to voluntarily follow EU rules during the transition period.

Joe_ Public · 16-10-2019 07:36PM

Labour mp confirms to Andrew Neil that they will be seeking to attach a public vote amendment to any deal being put forward.

Kermit.de.frog · 16-10-2019 07:39PM

Remainers trying to use a deal for NI to their own ends.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1184530380004691969

Before it was the Brexiteers trying to screw the island up, now it's desperate remainers.

threeball · 16-10-2019 07:41PM

What's to stop the UK using this hard won deal to avoid an Irish border as a bargaining chip in future trade agreements. If they aren't getting what they want they'll threaten to place a border on the island again just to strongarm the opposition like they always do. Right now it gets them out of Europe but they could renege on the deal as technically NI is still their territory.

KildareP · 16-10-2019 07:46PM

threeball wrote: »

What's to stop the UK using this hard won deal to avoid an Irish border as a bargaining chip in future trade agreements. If they aren't getting what they want they'll threaten to place a border on the island again just to strongarm the opposition like they always do. Right now it gets them out of Europe but they could renege on the deal as technically NI is still their territory.

Nothing.
Their word is worth nothing.
Meaningless.

I expect ERG et al, should they choose to vote for any deal, will do so purely on the basis they can just unravel the bits they don't like after the fact.

Strazdas · 16-10-2019 07:47PM

threeball wrote: »

What's to stop the UK using this hard won deal to avoid an Irish border as a bargaining chip in future trade agreements. If they aren't getting what they want they'll threaten to place a border on the island again just to strongarm the opposition like they always do. Right now it gets them out of Europe but they could renege on the deal as technically NI is still their territory.

They could definitely do that but there would be consequences for them (severe reputational damage and the EU hitting back in different ways).

Varta · 16-10-2019 07:47PM

threeball wrote: »

What's to stop the UK using this hard won deal to avoid an Irish border as a bargaining chip in future trade agreements. If they aren't getting what they want they'll threaten to place a border on the island again just to strongarm the opposition like they always do. Right now it gets them out of Europe but they could renege on the deal as technically NI is still their territory.

The thing that would stop them is the likelihood that the EU would crush them in more ways than they can imagine.

davedanon · 16-10-2019 07:49PM

threeball wrote: »

What's to stop the UK using this hard won deal to avoid an Irish border as a bargaining chip in future trade agreements. If they aren't getting what they want they'll threaten to place a border on the island again just to strongarm the opposition like they always do. Right now it gets them out of Europe but they could renege on the deal as technically NI is still their territory.

They would be breaking the terms of the GFA in full view of the international community. Not a good look for a constitutional democracy.

And the strongarming is currently going well, would you say?

Professor Moriarty · 16-10-2019 07:49PM

Strazdas wrote: »

They could definitely do that but there would be consequences for them (severe reputational damage and the EU hitting back in different ways).

If the UK goes down that road, the EU will tariff the crap out of them.

threeball · 16-10-2019 07:50PM

KildareP wrote: »

Nothing.
Their word is worth nothing.
Meaningless.

I expect ERG et al, should they choose to vote for any deal, will do so purely on the basis they can just unravel the bits they don't like after the fact.

That's what I thought. I expect doing this deal would actually benefit them in the long term as they are rarely adverse to using fragile agreements or people's lives as a hostage when they want something.

threeball · 16-10-2019 07:51PM

Varta wrote: »

The thing that would stop them is the likelihood that the EU would crush them in more ways than they can imagine.

Arent they doing the same with a no deal hard border brexit. They don't seem to give a toss about optics or the international community

joe_99 · 16-10-2019 07:53PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If the UK goes down that road, the EU will tariff the crap out of them.

US Congress won't pass trade either in that scenario

threeball · 16-10-2019 07:53PM

Varta wrote: »

The thing that would stop them is the likelihood that the EU would crush them in more ways than they can imagine.

All fine and well dealing with reasonable people but they have shown that they consider themselves immune to damage from the EU by the very fact they're happy to carry out a hard brexit.

Professor Moriarty · 16-10-2019 07:54PM

joe_99 wrote: »

US Congress won't pass trade either in that scenario

No. You watching Philip Hammond too?

A Dub in Glasgo · 16-10-2019 07:54PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Remainers trying to use a deal for NI to their own ends.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1184530380004691969

Before it was the Brexiteers trying to screw the island up, now it's desperate remainers.

Isn't he just highlighting the legal situation

Kermit.de.frog · 16-10-2019 07:56PM

Interesting in the Guardian on comments by Steve Baker and the ERG

However, they cautioned that the DUP would probably need to be onboard for them to support any agreement and promised to examine every “tedious detail” of the legal texts to ensure the prime minister was keeping to his word on leaving the customs union.

Niche change of tone there.

"Probably"...ERG going cold on the DUP if they attempt to block a deal they say they can live with?

Itssoeasy · 16-10-2019 07:57PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

No. You watching Philip Hammond too?

What has the former chancellor(is it chancellor or AG he was) said now ? I know the speaker of the US House of Representatives and several congressmen have said they won't if the GFA is messed with.

Kermit.de.frog · 16-10-2019 07:58PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Isn't he just highlighting the legal situation

Well yeah and nay.

It's simple to just pass accompanying legislation with the WA to deal with that issue.

They just want to make it awkward as possible.

Professor Moriarty · 16-10-2019 07:59PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

What has the former chancellor(is it chancellor or AG he was) said now ? I know the speaker of the US House of Representatives and several congressmen have said they won't if the GFA is messed with.

Chancellor. He said that Trump doesn't have any power over trade deals - it's down to Congress. Didn't mention GFA but spoke about chlorinated chicken and beef hormones. Good interview with Murnaghan on Sky.

Infini · 16-10-2019 08:03PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Remainers trying to use a deal for NI to their own ends.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1184530380004691969

Before it was the Brexiteers trying to screw the island up, now it's desperate remainers.

Honestly the whole situation wont be resolved until this vs remain is put to a 2nd vote. The Brexiteers can whinge all they want, they can't leave with no deal they'll be destroyed, they can only leave under a deal that will be to their disadvantage no matter how much they cry so the only option to diffuse this is the referendum between the deal or remain.

Nothing is going to pass parliment unless it has a way of moving things foward and Boris expecially has no way of getting an election so long as the gun is pointed at the UK's head.

Itssoeasy · 16-10-2019 08:04PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Chancellor. He said that Trump doesn't have any power over trade deals - it's down to Congress. Didn't mention GFA but spoke about chlorinated chicken and beef hormones. Good interview with Murnaghan on Sky.

Okay but that's hardly breaking news that trade deals are what congress do. Btw, it was Dominic grieve I was thinking about as a former AG. I think him and Phillip Hammond look alive kind of.

Professor Moriarty · 16-10-2019 08:05PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Okay but that's hardly breaking news that trade deals are what congress do. Btw, it was Dominic grieve I was thinking about as a former AG. I think him and Phillip Hammond look alive kind of.

They do. Easy to mix them up.

A Dub in Glasgo · 16-10-2019 08:14PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Well yeah and nay.

It's simple to just pass accompanying legislation with the WA to deal with that issue.

They just want to make it awkward as possible.

He is a QC (a remainer one yes) and does not sit in parliament so he has no say

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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