Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Much like Mayo in an All Ireland final I'll not get my hopes up. The odds are something will go wrong with this before Sunday.

They've been discussing the Irish protocol for five or six days solid. It's not an encouraging sign that there is still an impasse....it suggests it could all unravel quickly.

Mr.Nice Guy

Update from Alberto Nardelli here:

NEW: This is where I understand the Brexit talks, and details of the agreement under discussion, to be at:

1) Northern Ireland would be part of the UK's customs territory, however it would follow EU customs rules (ie no customs border on the island of Ireland).

2) Goods that carry no risk (for example the personal goods of someone moving to Northern Ireland from Britain + list of goods that will be covered by criteria set by the joint committee) will be exempt.

3) There will be a rebate mechanism. This will have to adhere to state aid rules.

4) The Northern Ireland text fundamentally builds on Feb. 2018 text (ie the Northern Ireland only backstop), reconciling it with UK requests

5) Main parts of the rest of the withdrawal agreement (citizens' rights, UK financial commitments and transition) fundamentally unchanged from current agreement

6) As mentioned earlier (and as reported by @tconnellyRTE), VAT is still the main open issue: UK has asked for Northern Ireland to not be subject to the EU's VAT regime, which is problematic for the EU.

7) On consent there will be a reference in the agreement to the mechanism + a unilateral UK declaration

8) The mechanism would work as follows:

- after four years, Stormont decides by simple majority whether to maintain the arrangements for four more years. If vote is affirmative, after four more years there would be another vote if this has cross-community support

- if the vote is against the arrangements, there would be a two year cooling off period

- if Stormont is not in a position to vote, the arrangements stay

8) On the political declaration, UK has asked for a specific reference to a future relationship based on an FTA with zero quotas and tariffs + no references to a customs union.

9) On level playing field provisions, which have proven to be another stumbling block, EU made clear LPF guarantees have to be stronger than in most FTAs because of geography. Agreement requires appropriate implementation mechanisms and a framework for fair future competition.

10) This is what happens tomorrow if there an agreement in time:

- EUCO conclusions to endorse agreement and call for its ratification. UK expected to have a Commons vote on Saturday. EU27 ambassadors could meet again, and agreement then goes to the European Parliament.

- The EUCO summit is expected to kick off with a short intervention by PM Johnson, and that will be followed by a discussion at 27

This consent plan sounds mental.

alchemist33

davedanon wrote: »

There's a triumph for optimism and no mistake. I'd give them the first; the rest, meh. If they were really canny operators, they wouldn't have ****canned May's deal. Best of both UK/EU worlds. Idiots.

That's looking at them as if they actually cared for Northern Iteland and wanted the best for everyone there. But really they only care what their hardcore base want, and for them their identity is more important than actual happiness.

igCorcaigh

Boris is surely not going ahead of Oct 31 with this.

He has to deliver some deal that gets through the commons.

The DUP are done, no way he can risk an extension and GE.

A Dub in Glasgo

The consent part is a recipe for upheaval every 4 years in Ireland, I cannot believe the EU are taking it seriously

VinLieger

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Boris is surely not going ahead of Oct 31 with this.

He has to deliver some deal that gets through the commons.

The DUP are done, no way he can risk an extension and GE.

The deal being discussed could very easily not get through commons, now he doesn't have a majority its not really up to him and he may have to request the extension with Benn

lawred2

1) Northern Ireland would be part of the UK's customs territory, however it would follow EU customs rules (ie no customs border on the island of Ireland).

and this is something actually being discussed?

VinLieger

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The consent part is a recipe for upheaval every 4 years in Ireland, I cannot believe the EU are taking it seriously

Yeah i cant believe Varadkar and Coveney are signing off on it, maybe they are just hoping the current demographics trends make it increasingly impossible for a vote against the deal

lawred2

And worse

8) The mechanism would work as follows:

- after four years, Stormont decides by simple majority whether to maintain the arrangements for four more years. If vote is affirmative, after four more years there would be another vote if this has cross-community support

- if the vote is against the arrangements, there would be a two year cooling off period

- if Stormont is not in a position to vote, the arrangements stay

this is exactly what I feared earlier....

it should be a majority to deviate from existing - not majority to maintain existing

I can't believe that this is being considered

FrancieBrady

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The consent part is a recipe for upheaval every 4 years in Ireland, I cannot believe the EU are taking it seriously

I can see that causing ructions here and ending consensus. It makes no sense to me why we would agree to instability that will affect the whole island every 4 years.

funkey_monkey

I really don't like the consent vote. Mad that the Irish and UK gov's with their knowledge of the eejits in Stormont don't realise that the MLA's don't have the capacity to make a rational decision on this.
It will be a sectarian headcount as I feared.

The major loser in this will be Alliance. They are pro-EU so I suspect that they will get major headache over having to side with the nationalists/republicans on this every four years. This could coincide with elections and be really harmful to their vote.

Although as I type I remember that the UUP stood on a remain ticket, but I don't think they are very happy about the border down the sea.

I presume it is a simple majority in Stormont to overrule?

A Shropshire Lad

It would nearly be worth an extension to watch BoJo have to write that letter asking for an extension, dead in a ditch.

Some mixed messages from RTE's correspondents on the 9pm news. Tony Connelly sticking to his optimistic line. But Tommy Gorman contradicting him on the DUP position. As said by others, I find it very hard to believe the EU is buying into this Stormont consent idea. It's nuts.

Spanish Eyes

The DUP are being paid off big time. Hope that whatever the humungous bribe might be, it will be dispersed throughout all communities. Place your bets now.

And I suppose the Quid pro quo is that the Cash for Ash will not be investigated further also.

And..... the Assembly will reconvene in order to avoid Abortion, SSM, and the Language Act. (and investigations into the Cash for Ash) Oh dear. Rock and a hard place. But I doubt SF will comply.

I think the bung (money) will win out in the end. Money talks and bullsh!t walks as they say.

Joe_ Public

Not much talk of the 39 billion, assume Johnson seems fine with handing it over despite his condemnations of it in the past. Just doesn't stack up for me on a whole lot of levels.

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

Some mixed messages from RTE's correspondents on the 9pm news. Tony Connelly sticking to his optimistic line. But Tommy Gorman contradicting him on the DUP position. As said by others, I find it very hard to believe the EU is buying into this Stormont consent idea. It's nuts.

Tommy will lionise the DUP or Unionist position always. He was almost calling them the moral hero's of the piece there. He is getting more ridiculous tbh.
Might be a bit of job politics going on between him and Connelly too.

Leroy42

VinLieger wrote: »

Yeah i cant believe Varadkar and Coveney are signing off on it, maybe they are just hoping the current demographics trends make it increasingly impossible for a vote against the deal

This is a pretty major climbdown by the government. I get that we want to be all 'looking after NI interests' but this is madness.

We would never be more than 6 years away from a hard border, with the very real potential that every 4 years it turns into 2! We will spend our time talking about the fecking border.

Not only does it create a crisis of confidence in NI, it has a knock on effect on RoI.

If Leo and Coveney are agreeing to this they will lose a huge amount of the goodwill built up over the brexit years.

Has Leo really given in on this? I can't believe it. Those that claimed that the EU would throw us under the bus were wrong, it was our own government!

CelticRambler

If that protocol for consent is accurate, then that kills off every advantage for NI business - all the red tape of asking for import/export rebates, all the hassle of complying with two different VAT regimes, and no guarantee that the feckers in Stormont will keep things stable long enough to see your company through to the end of a five-year plan. Who'd want to invest in NI under such circumstances?

The only way I can interpret this as a positive move is that it's a Cunning Plan that will allow GB to push NI towards reunification.

I can't see the Scots being happy either: NI gets to have a Brexit referendum every four years, while they have to fight tooth and nail for a second Indy Ref ... and of course, the UK as whole has been told that 2016 was a one-off-never-again-democratic decision that cannot be called into question or reversed, ever.

Leroy42

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Not much talk of the 39 billion, assume Johnson seems fine with handing it over despite his condemnations of it in the past. Just doesn't stack up for me on a whole lot of levels.

Yes, I had been wondering this myself. It is part of the WA, and seems that no-one is talking about it now.

CelticRambler

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Not much talk of the 39 billion, assume Johnson seems fine with handing it over despite his condemnations of it in the past.

Is that all the DUP are getting? :P

If they have indeed been bought off for a substantial sum, it'll be interesting to see whether the Brexiters kick up as much fuss about handing a huge amount of money over to a bunch of cantankerous Irishmen (who held their precious Brexit hostage for two and a half years) as they did about fulfilling their contractual obligations to "Europe".

Strazdas

CelticRambler wrote: »

If that protocol for consent is accurate, then that kills off every advantage for NI business - all the red tape of asking for import/export rebates, all the hassle of complying with two different VAT regimes, and no guarantee that the feckers in Stormont will keep things stable long enough to see your company through to the end of a five-year plan. Who'd want to invest in NI under such circumstances?

The only way I can interpret this as a positive move is that it's a Cunning Plan that will allow GB to push NI towards reunification.

I can't see the Scots being happy either: NI gets to have a Brexit referendum every four years, while they have to fight tooth and nail for a second Indy Ref ... and of course, the UK as whole has been told that 2016 was a one-off-never-again-democratic decision that cannot be called into question or reversed, ever.

It sounds a messy deal and we already know Johnson, Cummings and the Brexiteers are a bunch of chancers who can barely be trusted.

My feeling is this won't come to pass (for whatever reason). Too technical and complicated and proposed by people not acting in good faith.

t8010789

I can’t see a possible deal getting passed the HoC on Saturday, the numbers are tight and Labour, Lib Dems and SNP will refuse to back it and push for a general election.

Joe_ Public

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yes, I had been wondering this myself. It is part of the WA, and seems that no-one is talking about it now.

Andrew Neil raised it to a Tory minister earlier, a couple of times but got little reaction. Johnson would get serious stick for not getting some concessions on that I reckon, very odd it isn't being raised as an issue. Just something doesn't smell right to me about the whole thing.

Dyr

davedanon wrote: »

There's a triumph for optimism and no mistake. I'd give them the first; the rest, meh. If they were really canny operators, they wouldn't have ****canned May's deal. Best of both UK/EU worlds. Idiots.

If they actually get whats being touted tonight they'll have done significantly better than what Mays deal offered them.

Spanish Eyes

Where is the link to the sign off by V and Coveney wrt to this please?

To be absolutely fair FF have not interfered much either and have let them get on with it.

IMO compared with the absolute parody and faux drama going on in Westminster, our little country has acquitted itself very well in a quiet and non dictatorial way on behalf of us all, North and South.

I obviously missed the so called climb down by our Gov. I am sure someone will point me in the right direction. And thanks.

Kermit.de.frog

There has been no climb down.

If unionists in the north want to screw their own economy up in order to support the deal by having that uncertainty every 4 years then let them.

Itssoeasy

That section on consent and the mechanism behind voting every four years is(and apologies to the mods) an utter ****ing joke. So once every four years there'll be a vote in the north(which the ROI will have no say in) and like the brexit vote itself we in the ROI will get shafted potentially ? Every four years ? It's not the bloody Olympics or World Cup lads.

I hope varadkar and coveney and the rest of the team who have done very well in the last two years didn't agree to this. I mean if they have the next election Michael Martin might as well go into the Taoiseach's office in government buildings and pick the colour of the curtains and put the picture of Dev back up there and take Michael Collins down.

PokeHerKing

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There has been no climb down.

If unionists in the north want to screw their own economy up in order to support the deal by having that uncertainty every 4 years then let them.

Nothing is confirmed but it's of course a climb down IF it's true. It' would be a time limited backstop essentially.

threeball

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There has been no climb down.

If unionists in the north want to screw their own economy up in order to support the deal by having that uncertainty every 4 years then let them.

Uncertainty suits them. A NI that thrives in the EU whilst Britain stagnates is bad news for unionists. That's end game and a united Ireland is only a matter of time then.

davedanon

Not a chance any of this crap is true. 'Buzzfeed's Europe editor' pipes up and suddenly it's gospel, whereas Tony Connelly's always excellent reporting is debated back and forth? Not a hope.