Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

hometruths

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Well yeah and nay.

It's simple to just pass accompanying legislation with the WA to deal with that issue.

They just want to make it awkward as possible.

One of the commenters makes a good point:

https://twitter.com/TychoNestoris1/status/1184540574155788288

This is a bit ridiculous, he wants to ask for an injunction against the Withdrawal Agreement on the grounds it contravenes some law, and he intends to do it before the detail of the Withdrawal Agreement has been published!! It's an insane stance from an eminent barrister!!

We don't even know if the EU will agree to this WA yet!

Seems to be no accurate consensus of the current state of play if you look at what the journos and their sources are saying. Tony Connelly & RTE seem the most optimistic, claiming the DUP have signed up to a consent proposal (whatever it is). But most British sources saying no deal tonight, plus DUP not signed up yet.

Varta

threeball wrote: »

All fine and well dealing with reasonable people but they have shown that they consider themselves immune to damage from the EU by the very fact they're happy to carry out a hard brexit.

I think you have a problem seeing the wood for the trees. Let me guide you: The UK, a fragmenting ex-colonial power, riven with internal strife and facing into pending economic disaster, stepping out from the EU and going it alone - versus - the most powerful economic and political coalition that the world has ever seen.

davedanon

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50072748


No deal tonight, says UK govt. source.

igCorcaigh

Oh lol!

Sky news have launched their own Brexit free news channel.

Water John

Maugham is simply using a law that was put in place by JRM.
Totally entitled to do so. They have to remove the law or overide it with a new one.

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

Seems to be no accurate consensus of the current state of play if you look at what the journos and their sources are saying. Tony Connelly & RTE seem the most optimistic, claiming the DUP have signed up to a consent proposal (whatever it is). But most British sources saying no deal tonight, plus DUP not signed up yet.

I would say the signs are not overly encouraging. Talks getting bogged down suggests a lot of division on the UK side.

Imreoir2

Water John wrote: »

Maugham is simply using a law that was put in place by JRM.
Totally entitled to do so. They have to remove the law or overide it with a new one.

Which one assumes the government would do as part of the legislative package surrounding the deal. Its not like this is the first time the deal as agreed would require an amendment to some other peice of legislation. Seems like a road to nowhere to try to prevent a deal being put before parliament on that basis.

A Dub in Glasgo

Could that be the ruse Johnson and co were planning to use? Bring back an illegal deal, get it passed in parliament and no extension. The AG then declares the WA is not legal and UK crash out on 31 Oct

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1184531668507545600

threeball

Varta wrote: »

I think you have a problem seeing the wood for the trees. Let me guide you: The UK, a fragmenting ex-colonial power, riven with internal strife and facing into pending economic disaster, stepping out from the EU and going it alone - versus - the most powerful economic and political coalition that the world has ever seen.

Are you serious. Isn't that what a hard brexit is? Actually that's what any brexit is. I think you need to brush up on what's happening here besides claiming to educate me.

Nate--IRL--

Would it be too much tinfoil hattery to suggest T. Connelly is being used by the EU to sow division in the UK side? I get the impression that the optimism being exuded from the EU side is slightly disingenuous, as they are well aware how fragile a coalition of the unwilling the UK side is. If the wheels come off, it will likely be because the UK side disintegrates, the EU making very very clear, now, they are not the issue with a failure.

Nate

LeinsterDub

Much like Mayo in an All Ireland final I'll not get my hopes up. The odds are something will go wrong with this before Sunday.

hometruths

Water John wrote: »

Maugham is simply using a law that was put in place by JRM.
Totally entitled to do so. They have to remove the law or overide it with a new one.

Agree he is totally entitled to do it. But clearly if there are enough numbers to pass this WA, then there are enough to overturn Section 55.

My point is that by taking this course of action in the courts at all, never mind launching it before the detail of the agreement is even published he is providing gold plated ammunition to the "Pesky remainers are trying to frustrate the will of the people, give me a majority to sort it out" argument.

No doubt people who are remain fanatics will back him to the hilt and think it is a tremendous plan, and equally die hard leavers will curse him to eternity but the important audience are those who are somewhere in the middle.

I suspect they will think what an ar$ehole.

Hurrache

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Before it was the Brexiteers trying to screw the island up, now it's desperate remainers.

It's infuriating. Highly ironic if Mogg wants the deal but is prevented in doing so by Mogg of a different time.

I guess the simplest solution though is to repeal his law as part of the whole process in having parliament vote to approve it, or not.

davedanon

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

Would it be too much tinfoil hattery to suggest T. Connoly is being used by the EU to sow division in the UK side? I get the impression that the optimism being exuded from the EU side is slightly disingenuous, as they are well aware how fragile a coalition of the unwilling the UK side is. If the wheels come off, it will likely be because the UK side disintegrates, the EU making very very clear, now, they are not the issue with a failure.

Nate

It's Connelly.


Deva.

CelticRambler

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Sky news have launched their own Brexit free news channel.

I only watch Sky for the Brexit news! Couldn't care less about Bulgarians howling at the English, or some American woman being witch-hunted by a grieving family ...

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's simple to just pass accompanying legislation with the WA to deal with that issue.

They just want to make it awkward as possible.

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Which one assumes the government would do as part of the legislative package surrounding the deal. Its not like this is the first time the deal as agreed would require an amendment to some other peice of legislation. Seems like a road to nowhere to try to prevent a deal being put before parliament on that basis.

My reading of the legal action was that it would be a measure that guaranteed the Benn Act would come into force, i.e. that Johnson couldn't simply drop this new deal in front of the HoC on Saturday and say "take it or leave it" - that in and of itself, it would be an unlawful proposal unless and until the relevant legislation was amended - and there's no way the government could get that done until at least the following week, i.e. after the Benn Act deadline.

The hearing was being requested for Friday, so the text of the new WA should have been published by then.

It's all part of taking back control, innit?

davedanon

And I would suspect Tony is far too wily for that. I'm sure he was on the money, it's just the DUP gonna DUP innit.

davedanon

CelticRambler wrote: »

some American woman being witch-hunted by a grieving family ...

Nice. Well done.

Dyr

davedanon wrote: »

And I would suspect Tony is far too wily for that. I'm sure he was on the money, it's just the DUP gonna DUP innit.

The DUP are canny horse traders they'll get a big f**k off bag of money, the stormont assembly back up and running, possibly the chance to reverse the NI backstop every four years AND not be responsible for the f****king the NI economy over a cliff

Not a bad bus for them to be thrown under at the end of the day

Beechwoodspark

So why is self described Brexit hard man Baker so positive towards this? Hard not to be suspicious

Latest tweet from RTE's Micheal Lehane. No deal tonight I reckon.


https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1184556607730008069?s=20

Headshot

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

So why is self described Brexit hard man Baker so positive towards this? Hard not to be suspicious

You could say it's deal or no Brexit

davedanon

Bambi wrote: »

The DUP are canny horse traders they'll get a big f**k off bag of money, the stormont assembly back up and running, possibly the chance to reverse the NI backstop every four years AND not be responsible for the f****king the NI economy over a cliff

Not a bad bus for them to be thrown under at the end of the day

There's a triumph for optimism and no mistake. I'd give them the first; the rest, meh. If they were really canny operators, they wouldn't have ****canned May's deal. Best of both UK/EU worlds. Idiots.

Strazdas

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Much like Mayo in an All Ireland final I'll not get my hopes up. The odds are something will go wrong with this before Sunday.

They've been discussing the Irish protocol for five or six days solid. It's not an encouraging sign that there is still an impasse....it suggests it could all unravel quickly.

Mr.Nice Guy

Update from Alberto Nardelli here:

NEW: This is where I understand the Brexit talks, and details of the agreement under discussion, to be at:

1) Northern Ireland would be part of the UK's customs territory, however it would follow EU customs rules (ie no customs border on the island of Ireland).

2) Goods that carry no risk (for example the personal goods of someone moving to Northern Ireland from Britain + list of goods that will be covered by criteria set by the joint committee) will be exempt.

3) There will be a rebate mechanism. This will have to adhere to state aid rules.

4) The Northern Ireland text fundamentally builds on Feb. 2018 text (ie the Northern Ireland only backstop), reconciling it with UK requests

5) Main parts of the rest of the withdrawal agreement (citizens' rights, UK financial commitments and transition) fundamentally unchanged from current agreement

6) As mentioned earlier (and as reported by @tconnellyRTE), VAT is still the main open issue: UK has asked for Northern Ireland to not be subject to the EU's VAT regime, which is problematic for the EU.

7) On consent there will be a reference in the agreement to the mechanism + a unilateral UK declaration

8) The mechanism would work as follows:

- after four years, Stormont decides by simple majority whether to maintain the arrangements for four more years. If vote is affirmative, after four more years there would be another vote if this has cross-community support

- if the vote is against the arrangements, there would be a two year cooling off period

- if Stormont is not in a position to vote, the arrangements stay

8) On the political declaration, UK has asked for a specific reference to a future relationship based on an FTA with zero quotas and tariffs + no references to a customs union.

9) On level playing field provisions, which have proven to be another stumbling block, EU made clear LPF guarantees have to be stronger than in most FTAs because of geography. Agreement requires appropriate implementation mechanisms and a framework for fair future competition.

10) This is what happens tomorrow if there an agreement in time:

- EUCO conclusions to endorse agreement and call for its ratification. UK expected to have a Commons vote on Saturday. EU27 ambassadors could meet again, and agreement then goes to the European Parliament.

- The EUCO summit is expected to kick off with a short intervention by PM Johnson, and that will be followed by a discussion at 27

This consent plan sounds mental.

alchemist33

davedanon wrote: »

There's a triumph for optimism and no mistake. I'd give them the first; the rest, meh. If they were really canny operators, they wouldn't have ****canned May's deal. Best of both UK/EU worlds. Idiots.

That's looking at them as if they actually cared for Northern Iteland and wanted the best for everyone there. But really they only care what their hardcore base want, and for them their identity is more important than actual happiness.

igCorcaigh

Boris is surely not going ahead of Oct 31 with this.

He has to deliver some deal that gets through the commons.

The DUP are done, no way he can risk an extension and GE.

A Dub in Glasgo

The consent part is a recipe for upheaval every 4 years in Ireland, I cannot believe the EU are taking it seriously

VinLieger

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Boris is surely not going ahead of Oct 31 with this.

He has to deliver some deal that gets through the commons.

The DUP are done, no way he can risk an extension and GE.

The deal being discussed could very easily not get through commons, now he doesn't have a majority its not really up to him and he may have to request the extension with Benn

lawred2

1) Northern Ireland would be part of the UK's customs territory, however it would follow EU customs rules (ie no customs border on the island of Ireland).

and this is something actually being discussed?