Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk · 11-10-2019 1:38pm

blanch152 wrote: »

The cross-community consent is a double-edged sword. If I were the DUP, the question I would ask is whether cross-community assent should also apply to other constitutional issues affecting Northern Ireland.

I am sure that they would be happy to agree to a 66% requirement to leave the customs union if it also meant a 66% requirement to constitutionally leave the UK.

Interesting, but surely that is not in the spirit of the GFA if it is up to the NI Assembly whether they leave the UK and unite with Ireland instead of the people in a referendum?

LuckyLloyd · 11-10-2019 1:38pm

The EU can only negotiate with the UK government of the day. Reaching an agreement with them would absolutely be a positive optimistic thing. The EU has not to date and certainly should not try and negotiate with UK political elements outside of the government.

I told ya · 11-10-2019 1:38pm

Maybe the DUP have read the writings of the Late Conor Cruise O'Brien.

Something along the lines of " the Ulster Unionists need to realise that their last battle will not be with the Irish Nationalists but with the English Nationalists"

Or maybe Carson's line about the Tories.

IMV that piece in The Telegraph is a warning to the DUP. I can't see any other reason why they would adopt that position now, without a nod from No. 10 or Tory HQ.

Also, I am surprised why the cost of NI v EU has not been raised before this. Maybe a case of keep your powder dry.

Enzokk · 11-10-2019 1:39pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The Commission's tweet reads as though the UK has made a suggestion, but will take a significant length of time to see if it actually can be practical:

https://twitter.com/DanielFerrie/status/1182632481180307456

You will also not see the word "tunnel" anywhere in the EU statements. They are intensifying negotiations but not heading that deep yet.

Tippex · 11-10-2019 1:40pm

Enzokk wrote: »

You will also not see the word "tunnel" anywhere in the EU statements. They are intensifying negotiations but not heading that deep yet.

yep it does not seem to be anywhere near that stage yet so we may hear some bits and pieces over the next few hours.

J Mysterio · 11-10-2019 1:41pm

Enzokk wrote: »

This seems most likely, but his majority will depend how the extension is applied for. If he sends the letter he will not get a majority and the Brexit Party will eat him alive.

Agreed.

Due to this, I think there will be a show by UK/EU to get Brexit done by 31st - it will fail, as both sides expect.

Johnson will grumble and say his hands are tied by the Benn law and apply for the extension. He will complain about Remoaners and the EU.

In his GE campaign it will be New Deal or No Deal. He will privately expect New Deal, which EU and UK will continue to work on and finalize.

Assuming Johnson gets his majority, or close enough, they will agree the New Deal.

Hurrache · 11-10-2019 1:44pm

Enzokk wrote: »

You will also not see the word "tunnel" anywhere in the EU statements. They are intensifying negotiations but not heading that deep yet.

Yeah, sounds like suggestions of the tunnel were a bit optimistic.

An Ciarraioch · 11-10-2019 1:45pm

Enzokk wrote: »

You will also not see the word "tunnel" anywhere in the EU statements. They are intensifying negotiations but not heading that deep yet.

Alberto Nardelli with an excellent analogy:

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1182636316623806464

Russman · 11-10-2019 1:45pm

Excuse my ignorance, I feel like I'm having my "I don't know what a tracker mortgage is" moment

, but what is the tunnel that's being referenced ?

strandroad · 11-10-2019 1:47pm

Russman wrote: »

Excuse my ignorance, I feel like I'm having my "I don't know what a tracker mortgage is" moment , but what is the tunnel that's being referenced ?

When the teams have a lock in for actual proper negotiations.

Professor Genius · 11-10-2019 1:49pm

Enzokk wrote: »

There was support for May's deal at the last vote of 5 Labour MP's. The deal Johnson will bring back will on no way be better for the UK workers or what Labour wants since then, so how do you reckon they get the votes this time? Labour and the opposition can do what they want with Brexit as Johnson has lost his majority and they are playing the long game of the election that will hopefully sort all of this out after an extension is granted.

I cannot see Labour supporting this deal other than those 5 that did so before and thus there will not be a majority for the deal. If it looks like May's deal then the ERG will kick up a fuss, if it is a Irish Sea Border then he loses 10 DUP votes he has to make up somewhere else. If it suits the ERG then the rebels and MPs he lost will not vote for it.

Johnson is snookered and unless he comes back with a deal Labour and Corbyn can support (customs union, single market membership just about and protection of workers rights) he is not getting it through. If he gets a Brexit deal the Brexit Party votes will break for him and Labour loses their chance of a majority/coalition. There is very little chance of Labour supporting Johnson's deal.

Your numbers are incorrect.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/107132/labour-mps-call-eu-compromise-they-pledge-vote

Strazdas · 11-10-2019 1:51pm

Russman wrote: »

Excuse my ignorance, I feel like I'm having my "I don't know what a tracker mortgage is" moment , but what is the tunnel that's being referenced ?

'Formal and intense negotiations' between the two sides, not just discussions over a working lunch

Hurrache · 11-10-2019 1:52pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Alberto Nardelli with an excellent analogy:

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1182636316623806464

All I read from that is that someone is going to take advantage of someone else in a weaker position than they're in and spin lies and slander to paint themselves innocent afterwards.

So maybe an apt analogy after all.

Water John · 11-10-2019 1:58pm

Due to the lack of info on what is happening, this thread is getting very speculative.

Enzokk · 11-10-2019 1:58pm

Professor Genius wrote: »

Your numbers are incorrect.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/107132/labour-mps-call-eu-compromise-they-pledge-vote

Those MPs will have to explain why they are voting for a worse deal than they previously rejected. They had a chance to make Brexit happen and didn't vote for it. Now they have a choice of a worse deal for their constituents and going against Corbyn just before an election?

In any case we have heard about these two dozen MPs from Labour voting for Brexit and the most they had was 5. It could still happen but those that vote for Johnson's deal will find them against their own voters and Momentum for hurting Corbyn as well. Good luck with that one.

The high horse brigade · 11-10-2019 1:59pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

The nationalist community would go nuts. It would mean forever being in the UK for them.

Yes exactly this, and just to get the UK out of a hole. Surely the government cannot decide something like this? Cannot just adjust the GFA without a referendum

Enzokk · 11-10-2019 2:04pm

Water John wrote: »

Due to the lack of info on what is happening, this thread is getting very speculative.

The information out there is speculation until we get official news from spokesperson allowed to talk. Here is some more information from right now,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1182641578088849408?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1182641582618677252?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1182641587324620800?s=20

So it is back to the original backstop as May negotiated because the ERG had an amendment that NI would not have different customs arrangements from the rest of the UK. But the ERG rejected that so it is hard border again, right?

10000maniacs · 11-10-2019 2:05pm

briany wrote: »

To be honest, I'd give them that. The last thing needed is ploughing on with the 'decisive' mandate of 51-49.

You support the things you support in a democracy, but if there's not a consensus around them, then they'll be sh*te even if you get them.

No I certainly would not. It sets a precedent that the DUP would cling to for a border poll.

An Ciarraioch · 11-10-2019 2:05pm

The sole concrete detail that we do know is that the "community veto" appears to have been scrapped :

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1182641580248915969

prawnsambo · 11-10-2019 2:05pm

The high horse brigade wrote: »

Yes exactly this, and just to get the UK out of a hole. Surely the government cannot decide something like this? Cannot just adjust the GFA without a referendum

Never mind what the US might say about it. But to throw away a hard fought and absolutely vital part of the success of the GFA as a bone to the DUP and English nationalism? Going nuts wouldn't even come close to it.

Winters · 11-10-2019 2:14pm

blanch152 wrote: »

The 66% provision could be extended to the GFA referendum.

It would require changes or interpretations to the GFA (perhaps a protocol) but I don't think it would require a referendum to implement that change. Would be hard for the Irish government to resist if they are insisting on it for leaving the customs union.

if we were to take a particular lesson from the Brexit referendum it would be that.

Rolling out a United Ireland with a 51% result would be chaos.

Strazdas · 11-10-2019 2:15pm

Connolly adds that this does not mean the "tunnel" is being entered, just that talks are stepping up a bit.

Kermit.de.frog · 11-10-2019 2:15pm

Bloody hell! Looks like back to NI only backstop then!

How can the DUP live with that?

CelticRambler · 11-10-2019 2:17pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Sterling on biggest 2 day rally in 3 years. The market is buying the optimism, for now.

I'd be buying too, only I cracked the screen on my tablet and can't get to my Revolut account ...

Water John wrote: »

Due to the lack of info on what is happening, this thread is getting very speculative.

:pac: As if we'd have reached thread XI without a bit of speculation on previous occasions!

We had a brief run of posts yesterday about the relevance of the English language in the EU, and someone made the comment that we still have an edge over our fluent-in-English continental neighbours on account of our ability to understand and use nuance. I think Varadkar's meeting with Johnson yesterday was probably an exercise in (perhaps paradoxical) carefully nuanced straight-talking, and it's entirely possible that this will become an important role for Ireland in the future, translating cold, logical European English into friendlier ah-sure-you-know-how-it-is colloquial diplomacy.

I reckon Varadkar went/was sent to explain to Johnson in friendly language that he'd made a hames of the whole thing and he'd be completely fecked by all sides if he didn't cop on to himself; and even though (strictly speaking) it's not the EU's job to come up with face-saving strategies for third countries, we just happened to find this one down the back of the sofa ...

prawnsambo · 11-10-2019 2:19pm

Winters wrote: »

if we were to take a particular lesson from the Brexit referendum it would be that.

Rolling out a United Ireland with a 51% result would be chaos.

I'm not sure that any lesson can be taken from the brexit referendum other than that it should not have been held. But to start from that position and then to extrapolate from there that we should unilaterally end the principle of consent from the GFA. And I say unilaterally because the only other fair method of change would be to start again from the beginning. With all the parties back at the table again.

PropJoe10 · 11-10-2019 2:20pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Bloody hell! Looks like back to NI only backstop then!

How can the DUP live with that?

At this point, I would say the only people that care about the DUP are the DUP themselves. Anything that makes Arlene angry is absolutely fine by me.

VinLieger · 11-10-2019 2:23pm

Markets are very happy with whats happening, the Pounds jumped from 1.11 - 1.14 since yesterday which is a 5 month high

ToBeFrank123 · 11-10-2019 2:27pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Bloody hell! Looks like back to NI only backstop then!

How can the DUP live with that?

Basically May's deal again IF so. It will be rejected in the HoC by the ERG and DUP, and pretty much all the other parties and would have no chance of passing.

trellheim · 11-10-2019 2:28pm

watching twitter like a hawk here , absence of commentary at the mo means serious talks (about talks) are ongoing.

it looks like this might not be a real tunnel ( sort of an underpass ) as EU side still cautious

For those with longer memories when they get into the tunnel we will know. (Barnier hasnt said we are there yet ).

ps it aint just the backstop ! level playing field is there as well so the brits want to push that out ( a little bit of cake and eating it, but I suspect Barnier knows this all too well )

Strazdas · 11-10-2019 2:33pm

trellheim wrote: »

watching twitter like a hawk here , absence of commentary at the mo means serious talks (about talks) are ongoing.

it looks like this might not be a real tunnel ( sort of an underpass ) as EU side still cautious

For those with longer memories when they get into the tunnel we will know. (Barnier hasnt said we are there yet ).

ps it aint just the backstop ! level playing field is there as well so the brits want to push that out ( a little bit of cake and eating it, but I suspect Barnier knows this all too well )

I've seen speculation there will be 48 hours of talks / negotiations with the UK and things should be a bit clearer then as to whether this is going anywhere.

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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