Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Call me Al

So how does this rumoured customs union proposal square with single market integrity? I get the process for the customs, and the rebate for NI businesses

But if the UK is in an FTA with the US and importing huge quantities of awful food this is now ok into NI. How is it stopped from entering the food chain in ROI?

darem93

The DUP have probably come under major pressure from many of their core voters. They had no choice really but to accept these proposals, despite being "no divergence, no backstop, no surrender" before this.

Akrasia

As predictable, the UK are spinning this as 'The EU always like to do their deals at the last minute' when it seems likely that if a deal does emerge, it will be very similar to the deal that the EU had on the table 2 years ago, and the whole of the last 2 years will have been nothing more than the UK tearing itself and their own economy apart only to cave at the last minute and agree what was already on the table)

And after all this, even with all the parties coming out with nice platitudes about this development, there is absolutely no guarantee that the hardliners won't still renege on this deal at the last moment and force through a No Deal when it's too late to stop it.

seamus

Ultimately this looks like chickens coming home to roost.

Despite the bluster and insanity from the Tories, they've come in recent days to accept the reality they can't weasel out of asking for an extension.

If they have no deal, there will be an extension, and there will be an election, and the Tories will get savaged.

That leaves only one option; Deliver a new deal so they can deliver Brexit on the 31st.

And ultimately there will be an election one way or another. So it's a case of whether you delivered Brexit or had to go to Brussels with your tail between your legs.

This is why NI is back on the table. This is why the DUP are suddenly supportive of it. They want to be able to say they delivered Brexit when they're back knocking on doors.

Of course, it also means they have the opposition by the balls. If they can produce a new deal on time, then the opposition have just two choices; approve it, or crash out.

Johnson is happy with either outcome. The ERG are hoping the opposition are stupid enough to block any deal, but just as it was back in March, any Brexit is better than no Brexit for them.

Akrasia

seamus wrote: »

Ultimately this looks like chickens coming home to roost.

Despite the bluster and insanity from the Tories, they've come in recent days to accept the reality they can't weasel out of asking for an extension.

If they have no deal, there will be an extension, and there will be an election, and the Tories will get savaged.

That leaves only one option; Deliver a new deal so they can deliver Brexit on the 31st.

And ultimately there will be an election one way or another. So it's a case of whether you delivered Brexit or had to go to Brussels with your tail between your legs.

This is why NI is back on the table. This is why the DUP are suddenly supportive of it. They want to be able to say they delivered Brexit when they're back knocking on doors.

Of course, it also means they have the opposition by the balls. If they can produce a new deal on time, then the opposition have just two choices; approve it, or crash out.

Johnson is happy with either outcome. The ERG are hoping the opposition are stupid enough to block any deal, but just as it was back in March, any Brexit is better than no Brexit for them.

There will be an ammendment to approve the deal if it is put to a referendum

Johnson has burned so many bridges already that this will pass.

MPFGLB

I said it the day of the Referendum and I will say it again ...this is a major opportunity for NI

Imagine if you want to relocate to Europe and have 2 markets at your disposal

NI would be the place to set up shop

The DUP should grab this with both hands

Akrasia

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Sssshhh! It'll only work if they think they're winning!

Oh yeah, you're right.

Leo Must RESIGN for caving TO the Mighty British

(random words capitalised for the benefit of the express readership)

MPFGLB

They wont be the first group of people who only wanted something after they rejected it

lawred2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Reading between the DUP lines, this sounds very much like a "Yes":

https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/1182680171893215232

Some change in tune. Have they just wasted all our time for the last two years?

Akrasia

Aesop was banging on about this 2500 years ago.

The British public have been conditioned to take for granted what they had, and to wish for something that they could not have and when they try to get it, they lose something precious

"the kites and the swans
The kites of olden times, as well as the Swans, had the privilege of song. But having heard the neigh of the horse, they were so enchanted with the sound, that they tried to imitate it; and, in trying to neigh, they forgot how to sing."

Tea Shock

lawred2 wrote: »

Some change in tune. Have they just wasted all our time for the last two years?

You'd feel sorry for Teresa May

She must be watching this going..WTF....with a few colourful descriptive words for the DUP thrown in


I am still not getting how NI can effectively be in both customs unions though!

Strazdas

Tea Shock wrote: »

You'd feel sorry for Teresa May

She must be watching this going..WTF....with a few colourful descriptive words for the DUP thrown in


I am still not getting how NI can effectively be in both customs unions though!

I suppose it's similar to NI nationalists all having Irish passports despite being born in and living in the UK.

woohoo!!!

It would have saved an awful lot of grief not to mention time if the DUP had just signed off on the original NI only deal back in 2017. And everybody knows it.

Call me Al

Tea Shock wrote: »

You'd feel sorry for Teresa May

She must be watching this going..WTF....with a few colourful descriptive words for the DUP thrown in


I am still not getting how NI can effectively be in both customs unions though!

This is from Denis Staunton's article in this morning's IT

"...... One option the EU could accept is a scaled-down version of the customs partnership proposed by Theresa May for the whole of the UK and the whole of the EU. The reduced version would apply only to Northern Ireland, which would leave the EU customs union and remain part of the UK customs territory.

Under the customs partnership, the UK would agree to enforce EU customs rules and tariffs on goods moving from Britain to Northern Ireland. But if the EU tariff was higher than the UK tariff, businesses in the North would receive a rebate.

So Northern Ireland would leave the EU customs union and would enjoy all the benefits of an independent UK trade policy. But the customs border for administrative purposes would run alongside the regulatory border in the Irish Sea."

But, as I've already asked, what about new UK FTAs incompatible with the single market. How does that work.

Tea Shock

Strazdas wrote: »

I suppose it's similar to NI nationalists all having Irish passports despite being born in and living in the UK.

Them having Irish passports doesn't damage the integrity of the single market!

MrMusician18

Tea Shock wrote: »

You'd feel sorry for Teresa May

She must be watching this going..WTF....with a few colourful descriptive words for the DUP thrown in


I am still not getting how NI can effectively be in both customs unions though!

Theoretically it will be, in practice it will be in the EUCU and it will be up to the UK to manage how it controls the flow of goods across the Irish sea if for example widgets attract a higher duty in rUK vs NI.

Really, it's just a form of words to try to hide this. It's effectively a climbdown by the UK.

moon2

Call me Al wrote: »

But, as I've already asked, what about new UK FTAs incompatible with the single market. How does that work.

From previous statements from the EU I would guess the position will be that anyone moving goods from the mainland to NI will have to ensure those goods are allowed be "imported into the EU". NI would effectively be the EU in this scenario. I can't find details on this either though, so it's probably one of those important details thats being negotiated.

Imreoir2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Reading between the DUP lines, this sounds very much like a "Yes":

https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/1182680171893215232

Might this be the first time the DUP mentioned NI's long term economic interests since the joint letter they sent with SF before Stormount collapsed in 2017? Pigs seemingly can fly if you give them enough time.

A Dub in Glasgo

The BBC responded to my complaint todayabout Brendan O'Neill. I wonder if they will still have him on

BBC wrote:

Thanks for contacting us about Politics Live, broadcast 27 September.

During the programme whilst discussing Brexit, Brendan O’Neill stated “I am amazed that there haven't been riots yet.” When asked if he thinks there will be, he responded with “I think there should be.”

This statement was immediately picked up on and pushed back by Adam Fleming and other guests. It was for Mr O’Neill to defend his position and we cannot know what a guest is going to say in advance. These were not views Brendan O’Neill had previously expressed and we had no prior knowledge of them.

When a guest on live television makes a controversial statement of this sort, all the presenter can do is push back on air and allow other guests to challenge the comment which is exactly what Adam Fleming did.

Imreoir2

Call me Al wrote: »

But, as I've already asked, what about new UK FTAs incompatible with the single market. How does that work.

The regulatory border in the Irish sea would stop any goods not compatible with single market rules coming into NI. The UK can do an FTA with the US and take their chickens, but it wont be allowed into NI, but business in NI will be able to sell into the US under the terms of the FTA.

Tea Shock

moon2 wrote: »

From previous statements from the EU I would guess the position will be that anyone moving goods from the mainland to NI will have to ensure those goods are allowed be "imported into the EU". NI would effectively be the EU in this scenario. I can't find details on this either though, so it's probably one of those important details thats being negotiated.

Right - but is it not the EU's responsibility to set up the customs checks and finance them (i.e. Ireland's)?

Surely customs checks will have to happen on the Western side of the Irish sea!

moon2

Tea Shock wrote: »

Right - but is it not the EU's responsibility to set up the customs checks and finance them? (i.e. Ireland's?)

I'll hazard a guess that in this scenario it would be the responsibility of the importer and exporter, as per normal trade rules. That means the port on the mainland UK and also island of Ireland will do the normal checking to ensure goods are allowed. If the port of arrival is in NI then they'll run the checks. If it's in Dublin, we'll run the same checks.

EDIT: Worth pointing out that if the deal is essentially a NI only backstop, then the ports in the RoI will have to run these checks regardless. The deal would only force a change in NI itself.

MPFGLB

<snip - no link dumps, memes etc please>

Tea Shock

moon2 wrote: »

EDIT: Worth pointing out that if the deal is essentially a NI only backstop, then the ports in the RoI will have to run these checks regardless. The deal would only force a change in NI itself.

The Irish Times and RTE both saying the DUP will not accept a NI only backstop and it doesn't look like they will accept it if it's dressed up with a different name either

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/dup-opposed-to-brexit-deal-that-traps-northern-ireland-in-eu-1.4047814

PopePalpatine

strandroad wrote: »

When the teams have a lock in for actual proper negotiations.

Sounds like a conclave, but with less smoke or old men in frocks.

is_that_so

Tea Shock wrote: »

The Irish Times and RTE both saying the DUP will not accept a NI only backstop and it doesn't look like they will accept it if it's dressed up with a different name either

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/dup-opposed-to-brexit-deal-that-traps-northern-ireland-in-eu-1.4047814

The way the numbers are stacked in the HOS, nobody cares anymore what the DUP think. They are in the minority on Brexit.

L1011

Tea Shock wrote: »

The Irish Times and RTE both saying the DUP will not accept a NI only backstop and it doesn't look like they will accept it if it's dressed up with a different name either

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/dup-opposed-to-brexit-deal-that-traps-northern-ireland-in-eu-1.4047814

I'm not sure how often its been said on the thread already but the DUP stopped mattering weeks ago. They're just noise now.

edit: bah, left the reply box open for ages and someone has said it already

I sense an almighty great fudge hoving into view. To me, the key seems to be how on earth to “save face” for every actor.

Actually, I hope I am right, because this is a “you-know-what” enormous, biblical sized mess

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

I sense an almighty great fudge hoving into view. To me, the key seems to be how on earth to “save face” for every actor.

Actually, I hope I am right, because this is a “you-know-what” enormous, biblical sized mess

The only people looking to save face are Boris and his merry band. Don't confuse this with the usual EU post-summit bland communiques. If the proposed solution is workable the EU will do a deal, if it isn't they will reject it.

Leroy42

How can NI remain in EU but also access to UK standards and trade deals? I can't see how RoI doesn't, slowly, get treated differently within the EU. How much a RoI exporter prove that there goods didn't come from NI?

Surely that will need checks?