Enzokk wrote: » This seems most likely, but his majority will depend how the extension is applied for. If he sends the letter he will not get a majority and the Brexit Party will eat him alive.
Enzokk wrote: » You will also not see the word "tunnel" anywhere in the EU statements. They are intensifying negotiations but not heading that deep yet.
Russman wrote: » Excuse my ignorance, I feel like I'm having my "I don't know what a tracker mortgage is" moment , but what is the tunnel that's being referenced ?
Enzokk wrote: » There was support for May's deal at the last vote of 5 Labour MP's. The deal Johnson will bring back will on no way be better for the UK workers or what Labour wants since then, so how do you reckon they get the votes this time? Labour and the opposition can do what they want with Brexit as Johnson has lost his majority and they are playing the long game of the election that will hopefully sort all of this out after an extension is granted. I cannot see Labour supporting this deal other than those 5 that did so before and thus there will not be a majority for the deal. If it looks like May's deal then the ERG will kick up a fuss, if it is a Irish Sea Border then he loses 10 DUP votes he has to make up somewhere else. If it suits the ERG then the rebels and MPs he lost will not vote for it. Johnson is snookered and unless he comes back with a deal Labour and Corbyn can support (customs union, single market membership just about and protection of workers rights) he is not getting it through. If he gets a Brexit deal the Brexit Party votes will break for him and Labour loses their chance of a majority/coalition. There is very little chance of Labour supporting Johnson's deal.
An Ciarraioch wrote: » Alberto Nardelli with an excellent analogy:https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1182636316623806464
Professor Genius wrote: » Your numbers are incorrect.https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/107132/labour-mps-call-eu-compromise-they-pledge-vote
prawnsambo wrote: » The nationalist community would go nuts. It would mean forever being in the UK for them.
Water John wrote: » Due to the lack of info on what is happening, this thread is getting very speculative.
briany wrote: » To be honest, I'd give them that. The last thing needed is ploughing on with the 'decisive' mandate of 51-49. You support the things you support in a democracy, but if there's not a consensus around them, then they'll be sh*te even if you get them.
The high horse brigade wrote: » Yes exactly this, and just to get the UK out of a hole. Surely the government cannot decide something like this? Cannot just adjust the GFA without a referendum
blanch152 wrote: » The 66% provision could be extended to the GFA referendum. It would require changes or interpretations to the GFA (perhaps a protocol) but I don't think it would require a referendum to implement that change. Would be hard for the Irish government to resist if they are insisting on it for leaving the customs union.
Kermit.de.frog wrote: » Sterling on biggest 2 day rally in 3 years. The market is buying the optimism, for now.
Winters wrote: » if we were to take a particular lesson from the Brexit referendum it would be that. Rolling out a United Ireland with a 51% result would be chaos.
Kermit.de.frog wrote: » Bloody hell! Looks like back to NI only backstop then! How can the DUP live with that?
trellheim wrote: » watching twitter like a hawk here , absence of commentary at the mo means serious talks (about talks) are ongoing. it looks like this might not be a real tunnel ( sort of an underpass ) as EU side still cautious For those with longer memories when they get into the tunnel we will know. (Barnier hasnt said we are there yet ). ps it aint just the backstop ! level playing field is there as well so the brits want to push that out ( a little bit of cake and eating it, but I suspect Barnier knows this all too well )
ToBeFrank123 wrote: » Basically May's deal again IF so. It will be rejected in the HoC by the ERG and DUP, and pretty much all the other parties and would have no chance of passing.
blanch152 wrote: » The cross-community consent is a double-edged sword. If I were the DUP, the question I would ask is whether cross-community assent should also apply to other constitutional issues affecting Northern Ireland. I am sure that they would be happy to agree to a 66% requirement to leave the customs union if it also meant a 66% requirement to constitutionally leave the UK.
LuckyLloyd wrote: » It’s not May’s deal as it leaves the UK out of the backstop, a pretty significant difference. A hard Brexit deal that hits the red lines except for NI. It’s disingenuous to claim it’s the same thing.
ToBeFrank123 wrote: » Well I don't think it would matter - it would still be opposed by the DUP and likely most of the ERG, as well as Labour, SNP, and so on. And also probably by Tory remainers. Unless there is a time limit on it, and it would still probably be opposed by most.
