Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

GM228

Great point by David Allen Green that with so much focus on the Backstop that other areas of the WA have been overlooked:-

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1182559682344472576?s=19

Torsevt

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Martin currently on morning Ireland

He’s quite bullish about possibltity of deal being done in the next few weeks.

He’s emphasizing the need for consent on all sides in NI along with UK Irish engagement

He'll be upping his profile trying to get a bit of the limelight lol

Panicking with varadkar going full steam statesman

Mr.Wemmick

Torsevt wrote: »

It's not like anything varadkar and coveney are doing is rocket science

They have to be careful what they say

What nonsense. :rolleyes:

They have always been respectful of all parties/May and Johnson in the negotiations, even when the UK, the media - fed by No.10 - have been totally unpleasant and untruthful.

They succeeded in setting a carefully assertive yet polite path through very difficult terrain. No wonder Johnson looked up admiringly at Varadkar in a few of the photo shots yesterday.. he could learn a few things from Varadkar.

Sometimes it seems Johnson has had a crash course in politics in the last few months. He's still clueless, but at least now that knowledge is written all over his face.

newport2

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Brexit: Julian Smith says no one NI community will have veto



Interesting. DUP veto could be dead.

Border down the Irish sea with a referendum in NI on remaining aligned with the EU in 4 years time might be a runner. Can't see the majority of NI voting for a hard border, so it would be reasonably stable. And difficult for politicians to object to people in NI having their say. And leaving the power in NI's hands to decide their own future may make it sellable in parliament to a broader range of MPs. Leaves Britain free now to go off and make their deals.

BonnieSituation wrote: »

"Northern Ireland has long been a millstone round the neck of the rest of the UK and to fail to take back our independence because of it would be an historic tragedy."

Some people might use the term poetic justice.....

threeball

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

But he an Covney have also done a good job on Brexit.

They have made sure that the GFA, the cross border economy and the "normalsee” (sp) of life on the island have been front and center from day one.

It would be easy for Europeans in far flung places like Bulgaria, Estonia etc and not so far flung like France or The Netherlands to just cast Ireland aside as collateral damage and plough on with a deal that would have been easier to do.

But no they didn't, and that is in a large part due to Ireland leadership on this.

They also couldn't introduce a give away budget which will hurt them come election time so I don't think its as beneficial as the poster suggested.

Fr Tod Umptious

threeball wrote: »

They also couldn't introduce a give away budget which will hurt them come election time so I don't think its as beneficial as the poster suggested.

Well that was actually discussed on a piece on Morning Ireland this morning in the context of a snap general election.

FG may, in an election campaign, use the fact that this weeks budget was not a "give away", "election" budget as a example of them being fiscally prudent and a safe pair of hands.

Call me Al

Torsevt wrote: »

Ya but he's coasting now all the way following a simple enough playbook

Nothing about this whole 3-year saga has been or will be simple. Particularly the diplomacy required in not burning your bridges in the face of a patronising, nationalistic and wilfully ignorant British government and supporting DUP, and a tinder box possibly ready to ignite in the 6 counties.

SeaBreezes

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

No. Leo was there as jointly agreed choreography by the EU and the UK so that BJ could present his concessions with the right optics. He has to be seen not to concede to the EU. But could do it directly with Ireland under the guise of mutual cooperation and concern for peace, the border, the GFA, etc. In reality, Leo was not there under his own steam, and has no scope independent of the EU. But was the acceptable face proxy for M Barnier for this manœuvre.
Its then a case of working on the Unionists in the North to make it work.
And everyone is a hero. BJ delivers. Leo guardian of peace and economics on the island. And the EU, for expertly pulling the puppet strings that solved this impasse. Even the unionists get what they want even though they can't admit it, and yet have been seen to fight their corner and uphold their values.

Watching the EU negotiators at work versus the UK makes me feel sorry for the UK. For a 8 billion a year they had these skills negotiating on their behalf. Now it will cost them 15 billion a year alone in customs paperwork

The backstop was always going to be accepted. It was the only win win scenario.
And the UK needs trade deals with the US.

threeball

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Well that was actually discussed on a piece on Morning Ireland this morning in the context of a snap general election.

FG may, in an election campaign, use the fact that this weeks budget was not a "give away", "election" budget as a example of them being fiscally prudent and a safe pair of hands.

Ya but people love a give away budget regardless of whats said regarding being prudent. Most people only care about what they can get and how quickly.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

The next 24 hours will be make or break. Baker will have to give Barnier solid and detailed proposals, not just vague assurances.

Barclay. A Freudian slip! Baker would probably shoot Barnier.

Quin_Dub

##Mod Note##

Deleted a few overnight one liners and off topic posts.

weemcd

Everything seems to be running a bit too smoothly here. DUP/ERG types have been uncharacteristically quiet this week. Johnson and Varadkar making progress? Surely not.

This will be an interesting weekend for sure. If they double back to what should have been proposed 2 years ago with Irish sea border with NI remaining in the CU is there a remote possibility this gets past Scotland and Labour in a Parliamentary vote?

trellheim

Meeting's over. Stand by everyone

Enzokk

https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1182580619072724993?s=20

I believe Barnier will now pass on the information from the talks to the relevant players to see if there is a deal to be made. I am not sure if it is good or bad that it only took 2 hours though.

lawred2

Broken up or broken down?

trellheim

Tusk throwing shade (before the meeting ended)

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1182581870363590656

The UK has still not come forward with a workable, realistic proposal. But I have received promising signals from Taoiseach @LeoVaradkar that a deal is possible. Even the slightest chance must be used. A no deal #Brexit will never be the choice of the EU.

lawred2

trellheim wrote: »

Tusk throwing shade (before the meeting ended)

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1182581870363590656

I wouldn't say that that's throwing shade anywhere.

Seems upbeat from Tusk

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1182584774059352065

Nothing new , EU doing what the need to seem willing and reasonable

trellheim

where's the PR .... unless the lads are phoning principals to see if its workable .mmmmm.... its either into the tunnel or not tick tock

Enzokk

Here is some more from Tusk,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1182584774059352065?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1182584777783808001?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1182584780992499712?s=20



Tusk said before proposals, working proposals, needed to be received by today. As of yet none have been received and he said before that this would signal that no workable deal would be realistic. However after the talks between Johnson and Varadkar yesterday there is a way to get a deal so they will pursue it.

I am going to be cynical and say that Johnson is playing the EU here, this is just more time wasting from him and he knows that he cannot get a deal and get it passed and get is legislated in time to leave by the 31st as he promised so I am calling rubbish on him trying now to get a deal.

Mr.Wemmick

The confusion, for me at least:

1. Is this the EU really trying to get rid of toxic UK politics/ brexit. They have had enough, and who could blame them? I have my doubts though as a poor exit will mean further difficulties and painful times down the road for the EU/IRL?

2. Positive language at play as an optic to prove Ireland and EU are listening, trying, being supportive of brexit, no matter it's stupidity. Blame then less likely to stick when it goes to the wall on 31st Oct.

Either, or? Both?

Imreoir2

josip wrote: »

But won't Scotland also want whatever arrangement is being proposed for NI?
Not our problem to solve, but an obstacle to agreeing a possible deal surely?

The British government has been well able to tell the Scots to sod off on most other issues, I don't see why this would present any special difficulty for them. The SNP are going to vote against the deal anyway so no big loss for the Tories.

quokula

The prospects for a deal have been swinging so wildly lately that part of me wonders if there's people at Downing street trying to create currency fluctuations to profit from. I don't normally buy into that kind of conspiracy theory but the UK government are beyond untrustworthy these days.

BarryD2

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

The confusion, for me at least:

1. Is this the EU really trying to get rid of toxic UK politics/ brexit. They have had enough, and who could blame them? I have my doubts though as a poor exit will mean further difficulties and painful times down the road for the EU/IRL?

2. Positive language at play as an optic to prove Ireland and EU are listening, trying, being supportive of brexit, no matter it's stupidity. Blame then less likely to stick when it goes to the wall on 31st Oct.

Either, or? Both?

Dunno, but playing with Johnson and his supporters seems to be like handing dodgy fireworks - they could easily go off in your hands. He was boxed into a situation where an extension and general election/ referendum seemed the only way out. And now he's been thrown a bit of a lifeline.

prawnsambo

BarryD2 wrote: »

Dunno, but playing with Johnson and his supporters seems to be like handing dodgy fireworks - they could easily go off in your hands. He was boxed into a situation where an extension and general election/ referendum seemed the only way out. And now he's been thrown a bit of a lifeline.

He's still boxed in by parliament though. Unless he actually has a deal in place by the 19th, he has to look for an extension (he would anyway if there was a genuine chance of a deal). And between now and then, he has a QS to negotiate. The opposition parties could play a lot of hardball with that alone. So a very bumpy road ahead and no easy route through it.

trellheim

no we need to be in the tunnel by end of play today or Tusk is going to call it off

Tippex

trellheim wrote: »

no we need to be in the tunnel by end of play today or Tusk is going to call it off

What time do Barnier's statements usually come out at?
Tusk pouring cold water on things earlier with the statement.

LuckyLloyd

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

But he an Covney have also done a good job on Brexit.

They have made sure that the GFA, the cross border economy and the "normalsee” (sp) of life on the island have been front and center from day one.

It would be easy for Europeans in far flung places like Bulgaria, Estonia etc and not so far flung like France or The Netherlands to just cast Ireland aside as collateral damage and plough on with a deal that would have been easier to do.

But no they didn't, and that is in a large part due to Ireland leadership on this.

I actually find the depth of understanding on the GFA and Irish border consistently expressed by EU statespeople incredibly moving. Our diplomatic core deserve a ton of credit for pushing the issues and making them consumable, but the willingness of EU politicians to really dig into the topics, grasp them and defend our position on them is amazing.


I hope we can repay the favour in time.

seamus

Enzokk wrote: »

I am going to be cynical and say that Johnson is playing the EU here, this is just more time wasting from him and he knows that he cannot get a deal and get it passed and get is legislated in time to leave by the 31st as he promised so I am calling rubbish on him trying now to get a deal.

Yeah, it seems likely.

The rumblings coming out from the Leo/Boris meeting last night gave me the impression that the UK was willing to concede in part; perhaps accept the backstop in exchange for something else on the EU side.

The experience of the last 3 years tells me that the British PM (whoever it is) will say literally anything to placate foreign leaders and then return home and say something else, even if they're entirely incompatible.

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

1. Is this the EU really trying to get rid of toxic UK politics/ brexit. They have had enough, and who could blame them? I have my doubts though as a poor exit will mean further difficulties and painful times down the road for the EU/IRL?

It looks like a global slowdown, even a recession is on the way. The EU are turning the screws to try and put and end to this farce one way or another. The, "we have no solutions to offer but give us more time" plea won't be allowed again. What the EU is looking for is surity - either that the UK is leaving or that a deal will be in place. This allows one to batton down the hatches and plan effectively for the coming economic conditions.

With the UK flailing uncertainly off the stern of the ship, the EU is left with a massive unknown exposure to inclement weather. They have to cut loose or get on board.

2. Positive language at play as an optic to prove Ireland and EU are listening, trying, being supportive of brexit, no matter it's stupidity. Blame then less likely to stick when it goes to the wall on 31st Oct.

The EU has shown continually that they're not playing this game and vying for the approval of the British people. There's a certain amount of PR there for the rest of Europe, btu by and large they're not getting drawn into using ambiguous language and weasel words to apportion blame or mislead people like the UK government has been doing.

Fr Tod Umptious

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I actually find the depth of understanding on the GFA and Irish border consistently expressed by EU statespeople incredibly moving. Our diplomatic core deserve a ton of credit for pushing the issues and making them consumable, but the willingness of EU politicians to really dig into the topics, grasp them and defend our position on them is amazing.


I hope we can repay the favour in time.

Yes, from day one one gets the impression that the Irish civil service, diplomatic corps, etc have been on top of their brief.
More than once Irish ministers have been brilliant at articulating the reality on British media.
And that is all down to good work behind the scenes.

Compare that with UK cabinet ministers expressing surprise about how much goods go through Dover.