Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

prawnsambo

trellheim wrote: »

watching twitter like a hawk here , absence of commentary at the mo means serious talks (about talks) are ongoing.


it looks like this might not be a real tunnel ( sort of an underpass ) as EU side still cautious

For those with longer memories when they get into the tunnel we will know. (Barnier hasnt said we are there yet ).

ps it aint just the backstop ! level playing field is there as well so the brits want to push that out ( a little bit of cake and eating it, but I suspect Barnier knows this all too well )

Afaik, the level playing field provisions were only there in the case of the all-UK backstop. If the backstop moves back to the Irish Sea, the level playing field provisions don't need to apply.

LuckyLloyd

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Basically May's deal again IF so. It will be rejected in the HoC by the ERG and DUP, and pretty much all the other parties and would have no chance of passing.

It’s not May’s deal as it leaves the UK out of the backstop, a pretty significant difference. A hard Brexit deal that hits the red lines except for NI. It’s disingenuous to claim it’s the same thing.

Imreoir2

blanch152 wrote: »

The cross-community consent is a double-edged sword. If I were the DUP, the question I would ask is whether cross-community assent should also apply to other constitutional issues affecting Northern Ireland.

I am sure that they would be happy to agree to a 66% requirement to leave the customs union if it also meant a 66% requirement to constitutionally leave the UK.

That is not something the British government can give them as it would require opening the GFA, and there is not a snowballs chance in hell the Irish government would agree to that.

ToBeFrank123

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

It’s not May’s deal as it leaves the UK out of the backstop, a pretty significant difference. A hard Brexit deal that hits the red lines except for NI. It’s disingenuous to claim it’s the same thing.

Well I don't think it would matter - it would still be opposed by the DUP and likely most of the ERG, as well as Labour, SNP, and so on. And also probably by Tory remainers.

Unless there is a time limit on it, and it would still probably be opposed by most.

Professor Genius

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Well I don't think it would matter - it would still be opposed by the DUP and likely most of the ERG, as well as Labour, SNP, and so on. And also probably by Tory remainers.

Unless there is a time limit on it, and it would still probably be opposed by most.

Time limit will = consent by Unionists PLUS Nationalists to exit backstop.

joe40

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Well I don't think it would matter - it would still be opposed by the DUP and likely most of the ERG, as well as Labour, SNP, and so on. And also probably by Tory remainers.

Unless there is a time limit on it, and it would still probably be opposed by most.

You might be right but this might be the best deal going considering the alternative could be another election resulting in a tory majority. An emboldened Boris Johnson would be even harder to work with.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/1011/1082495-barnier-barclay-meeting-brussels/

Rees Mogg amendment that NI could not have different custom arrangements to GB could be an issue according to Tony.

His sources adamant they are moving back to December 2017 arrangement for NI only (when DUP threw a strop).

Imreoir2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Bloody hell! Looks like back to NI only backstop then!

How can the DUP live with that?

They won't. They would be bound to vote against a deal on that basis, but perhaps Johnson does not care. His angle on this might be to secure a deal that he knows wont pass.

An Ciarraioch

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

It would need to be a minimum 55% for a UI vote. 65% etc is too high and would make a UI almost impossible.

Strangely enough, it was the EU that set a 55% threshold when Montenegro held its independence referendum, and the final Yes vote - 55.5%!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Montenegrin_independence_referendum

An Ciarraioch

Boris not exactly providing comfort to the DUP:

https://twitter.com/anguswalkertalk/status/1182656507260887046

Christy42

Imreoir2 wrote: »

They won't. They would be bound to vote against a deal on that basis, but perhaps Johnson does not care. His angle on this might be to secure a deal that he knows wont pass.

Honestly if it is this or crash out the rest might be ok with it. He doesn't have a majority including the dup so they are useless to him. He needs support from elsewhere no matter the deal. There is no point in placating them and ignoring them provides the most realistic option.

jimmycrackcorm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/1011/1082495-barnier-barclay-meeting-brussels/

Rees Mogg amendment that NI could not have different custom arrangements to GB could be an issue according to Tony.

His sources adamant they are moving back to December 2017 arrangement for NI only (when DUP threw a strop).

That amendment could be repealed as part of the act accepting the new deal.

ToBeFrank123

Imreoir2 wrote: »

They won't. They would be bound to vote against a deal on that basis, but perhaps Johnson does not care. His angle on this might be to secure a deal that he knows wont pass.

It would be great if Corbyn and Labour voted for the deal and outwitted him.

Labour would benefit hugely from it at the General Election, finally helping secure a deal for the UK to leave.

Akrasia

murphaph wrote: »

This makes sense, especially if Johnson gets his majority and can then just let GB crash out hard in 18 months or whatever it is when the transition period is up. There's no "extension" he can be forced to ask for then. He would have to lose a VoNC to be removed but if he's got a healthy majority of ERG types that won't happen.

He may have simply realised that he can't get no deal now because of parliamentary arithmetic, but if he's prepared to wait a little longer he can get the same thing (minus NI which nobody cares about anyway).

If Johnson gets a deal, you can be guaranteed that Farage will use the very very valuable platform he has on LBC to mobilise brexit supporters to oppose this deal.
Farage wants no deal. He will present any Johnson deal as a pig in lipstick and he will try to force Boris to abandon the deal rather than risk losing the subsequent election due to a split vote from the Brexit party

MPFGLB

As an Irish person living in London who voted Remain and who believes in the EU project with all its faults is it wrong of me to want Boris Johnson to succeed with a deal if it shafts the DUP...Is it ? Is it ?

Seriously even if the EU and Johnson agree it will be very hard to get anything through the HoC

For one thing if BoJO succeeds he will probably win the next election .Corbyn would rather eat his own Granny than let that happen

Lib Dems, Green, SNP and many Labour are devout Remainers and are not for turning so they will not vote for it ,especially now as the population majority is remain

Johnson will have to get some of the Labour Brexiters to vote against their whip...there are alot in HoC

Its funny the BoJo's deal will look alot like the May deal as Ken Clarke said it would before Johnson came to power

Seems in politics being lucky is more important than being good

An Ciarraioch

The UUP sense their opportunity:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1182653082850746369

Nody

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Boris not exactly providing comfort to the DUP:

https://twitter.com/anguswalkertalk/status/1182656507260887046

That's throwing DUP under the bus if anything; "everyone will benefit from Brexit" and he'll then claim NI benefits from having access to both markets etc.

Snickers Man

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

ne.

It would be easy for Europeans in far flung places like Bulgaria, Estonia etc and not so far flung like France or The Netherlands to just cast Ireland aside as collateral damage and plough on with a deal that would have been easier to do.

But no they didn't, and that is in a large part due to Ireland leadership on this.

It would but then if they are serious about keeping the EU as a union of separate nation states collaborating on agreed standards of human rights, tariffs, product and technology regulation,state interference in the economy and a single market with pretty much a level playing field of rules......then you have a vested interest in not throwing one of your member states under a bus as soon as the going gets rough.

What doesn't kill you makes you stronger. Supporting Ireland's concerns has been an open goal for the EU. Only the dopey xenophobic "England uber alles" tendency in the UK has difficulty seeing that.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: United Ireland posts moved to the United Ireland thread.

SirChenjin

LooperDan wrote: »

I don't post so much, but just feel I want to say thanks to the posters on this thread which have made this my first point of call on the real happenings of all things Brexit.

I have been following the thousands of posts over the last few months, and the contributions of most of the posters has been excellent.

I also want to thank those who moderate the thread for keeping it real and not allowing it to descend into the lower levels of trolling.

It's been incredibly thought provocative and I am the wiser for all your contributions, not to mention very proud of the intelligence that exists in Ireland.

Just wanted to echo this. For me, this is the best thread on boards, hugely informative with a lot of very well articulated contributions. Thanks.

An Ciarraioch

Eurasia was always at war with Eastasia:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1182669382859837444

Rjd2

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1182670869509890048

ERG seem on board. Clever by Boris to give some of them juicy jobs to keep them on side.

I assume May if she was to read would scream " now you choose to be ****ing practical!":D

circadian

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Eurasia was always at war with Eastasia:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1182669382859837444

I lol'd at this. If it's true DUP want it both ways and they haven't realised their throat has been cut by the Tories.

Water John

I would say it might be the DUP being saved from their own lunacy.

Kermit.de.frog

How much is the bung to the DUP?


They are classy unionists.

VinLieger

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

How much is the bung to the DUP?


They are classy unionists.

My guess is a reverse plantation over to Wales, they've been getting uppity recently, they just changed their minds on Brexit sure, cant be having that.

Tea Shock

Please help me get my head around this. Northern Ireland fully participating in new UK trade deals WITH a customs border down the Irish Sea AND remaining within UK customs

How are these things not mutually exclusive?

lawred2

Tea Shock wrote: »

Please help me get my head around this. Northern Ireland fully participating in new UK trade deals WITH a customs border down the Irish Sea AND remaining within UK customs

How are these things not mutually exclusive?

well the whole point was that the arrangement for Northern Ireland was to be unique, bespoke and reflective of it's unique constitutional status.

briany

lawred2 wrote: »

well the whole point was that the arrangement for Northern Ireland was to be unique, bespoke and reflective of it's unique constitutional status.

It's like that time on the Simpsons when the Civil War reenactors staged a battle between the South, North and the East that would keep Springfield in, out and next to the Union respectively.

An Ciarraioch

Reading between the DUP lines, this sounds very much like a "Yes":

https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/1182680171893215232