Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas · 16-06-2019 1:06am

Shelga wrote: »

I met James O'Brien today! I was proper fangirling

Felt like a Trekkie at Comic Con :pac:

Was that in Dalkey? I saw something on Twitter about him attending the book festival.

Must be great for him to be in a place where Brexiteers are regarded as total loons

Lackadaisical · 16-06-2019 1:51am

I don't think the EU has any intentions of throwing us under a bus but if they did it would be an absolutely massive betrayal of a committed EU member and one of the founders of the Euro.

I think if they did that it would be the beginning of the end of the EU and they're well aware of that. The implication would be that they would potentially throw any member under the bus in a crisis at the behest of an external actor. So it would leave many countries that border Russians and do on feeling like they were exposed to similar risks.

From what I'm seeing the EU just sees the UK as a serious external threat but the UK seems to be under the false impression that the EU still cares what happens to them or will show them any solidarity at all.

In short the UK is making direct threats to an EU and Eurozone country and expecting the EU to hammer that country on the UK's behalf. It's cloud cuckoo land stuff!

I think you can safely ignore comments about this particular scenario coming from people in the UK.

1. They have absolutely no inside track on what's going on in the EU.
2. They project their own biases into everything and don't understand how it works. The EU doesn't operate like the relationship in the UK between the constituent parts. The UK model is basically England being supreme and the other components of the UK being subservient and of less importance. The EU is a modern semi federal structure based on equality, solidarity and mutual respect of members. You even see that in the way the Tories keep attempting to negotiate with Merkel and she keeps telling that she's the German chancellor and doesn't run the EU.
3. They see Ireland as a rogue province rather than a real country and barely recognise our independence most of the time.

So I really think this notion that the EU will suddenly turn on us, despite absolutely assurances of solidarity from all the institutions and also most of the key members, is really British fantasy.

20silkcut · 16-06-2019 7:05am

Lackadaisical wrote: »

I don't think the EU has any intentions of throwing us under a bus but if they did it would be an absolutely massive betrayal of a committed EU member and one of the founders of the Euro.

I think if they did that it would be the beginning of the end of the EU and they're well aware of that. The implication would be that they would potentially throw any member under the bus in a crisis at the behest of an external actor. So it would leave many countries that border Russians and do on feeling like they were exposed to similar risks.

From what I'm seeing the EU just sees the UK as a serious external threat but the UK seems to be under the false impression that the EU still cares what happens to them or will show them any solidarity at all.

In short the UK is making direct threats to an EU and Eurozone country and expecting the EU to hammer that country on the UK's behalf. It's cloud cuckoo land stuff!

I think you can safely ignore comments about this particular scenario coming from people in the UK.

1. They have absolutely no inside track on what's going on in the EU.
2. They project their own biases into everything and don't understand how it works. The EU doesn't operate like the relationship in the UK between the constituent parts. The UK model is basically England being supreme and the other components of the UK being subservient and of less importance. The EU is a modern semi federal structure based on equality, solidarity and mutual respect of members. You even see that in the way the Tories keep attempting to negotiate with Merkel and she keeps telling that she's the German chancellor and doesn't run the EU.
3. They see Ireland as a rogue province rather than a real country and barely recognise our independence most of the time.

So I really think this notion that the EU will suddenly turn on us, despite absolutely assurances of solidarity from all the institutions and also most of the key members, is really British fantasy.

Can they make life difficult for us though with regard to the landbridge to Europe if they did go rogue?
I’m sure they see that as a trump card in all this. Jacob Rees mogg has alluded to it several times in a vaguely sinister tone and others too.

listermint · 16-06-2019 7:15am

20silkcut wrote: »

Can they make life difficult for us though with regard to the landbridge to Europe if they did go rogue?
I’m sure they see that as a trump card in all this. Jacob Rees mogg has alluded to it several times in a vaguely sinister tone and others too.

No because they would be shut off .

KildareP · 16-06-2019 8:43am

20silkcut wrote: »

Can they make life difficult for us though with regard to the landbridge to Europe if they did go rogue?
I’m sure they see that as a trump card in all this. Jacob Rees mogg has alluded to it several times in a vaguely sinister tone and others too.

Landbridge is probably going to back up from UK freight alone, no need for them to interfere or go rogue.

Ireland has been rerouting freight increasingly around the UK since last year.
The MV Celine was launched with 8KM of lanes for freight.
The MV Laureline was added this year to provide 5.4KM more.

That's new freight capacity on top of existing.

Irish Ferries now have significant ferry capacity on large vessels that are currently primarily on UK routes but could just as easily be rerouted onto the French routes - possibly even Spain as well.

No doubt there'll still be some disruption but there has been a lot of behind the scenes going on to remove the reliance on the UK as a route to Europe.

am i bovvered · 16-06-2019 9:00am

listermint wrote: »

Because the dup want a border more than anything. That's all they've ever wanted.
In their minds a border puts up real barriers to the notion of United Ireland. Whether that view is true or not that's what they believe

They are sucking up to Johnson so the border is on the land north and south and it's not a sea border. Because given half the chance I think Johnson would just stick it down the sea and be done with it.

The crazy thing is that I believe allowing NI access to both markets (by having the border in the sea) would actually prevent a United Ireland.
The people in the North would gain a lot, and it would not be advantageous to commit to just one market.
The DUP are unsurprisingly short minded bigots, their actions for a hard border will bring about the thing they fear the most.

Cal4567 · 16-06-2019 10:22am

3. They see Ireland as a rogue province rather than a real country and barely recognise our independence most of the time.

Very true. Both officially and individuals on the ground. Not in a nasty way. We are just not on their agenda and yes, viewed by the English as if we were Scotland. I think though the backstop has woken them up a bit.

Even with the backstop being in the news, still a lot of ignorance there about Ireland.

Beechwoodspark · 16-06-2019 10:26am

Just watching Marr

Rory Stewart is going on about a citizens assembly. He pointed to the Irish example of citizens assembly for constitutional issues.

Marr said to him that ireland took a year on it.

Stewart says he thinks it can be done within a few weeks.

Pie in the sky I think.

InTheShadows · 16-06-2019 10:37am

Lackadaisical wrote: »

I don't think the EU has any intentions of throwing us under a bus but if they did it would be an absolutely massive betrayal of a committed EU member and one of the founders of the Euro.

I think if they did that it would be the beginning of the end of the EU and they're well aware of that. The implication would be that they would potentially throw any member under the bus in a crisis at the behest of an external actor. So it would leave many countries that border Russians and do on feeling like they were exposed to similar risks.

From what I'm seeing the EU just sees the UK as a serious external threat but the UK seems to be under the false impression that the EU still cares what happens to them or will show them any solidarity at all.

In short the UK is making direct threats to an EU and Eurozone country and expecting the EU to hammer that country on the UK's behalf. It's cloud cuckoo land stuff!

I think you can safely ignore comments about this particular scenario coming from people in the UK.

1. They have absolutely no inside track on what's going on in the EU.
2. They project their own biases into everything and don't understand how it works. The EU doesn't operate like the relationship in the UK between the constituent parts. The UK model is basically England being supreme and the other components of the UK being subservient and of less importance. The EU is a modern semi federal structure based on equality, solidarity and mutual respect of members. You even see that in the way the Tories keep attempting to negotiate with Merkel and she keeps telling that she's the German chancellor and doesn't run the EU.
3. They see Ireland as a rogue province rather than a real country and barely recognise our independence most of the time.

So I really think this notion that the EU will suddenly turn on us, despite absolutely assurances of solidarity from all the institutions and also most of the key members, is really British fantasy.

Which i could have the same confidence but after the way they treated us after the 2008 crash i have zero trust in anything the EU say.

Seth Brundle · 16-06-2019 10:39am

InTheShadows wrote: »

Which i could have the same confidence but after the way they treated us after the 2008 crash i have zero trust in anything the EU say.

What way?

Headshot · 16-06-2019 10:39am

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Just watching Marr

Rory Stewart is going on about a citizens assembly. He pointed to the Irish example of citizens assembly for constitutional issues.

Marr said to him that ireland took a year on it.

Stewart says he thinks it can be done within a few weeks.

Pie in the sky I think.

Lets correct that a bit

The citizen assembly in Ireland only place during the weekends where as Rory wants its on during the week days

so in theory it could be quicker

Professor Moriarty · 16-06-2019 10:56am

Headshot wrote: »

Lets correct that a bit

The citizen assembly in Ireland only place during the weekends where as Rory wants its on during the week days

so in theory it could be quicker

Plus having a debate about abortion wouldn't be seen as urgent as an imminent No Deal Brexit.

Sam Russell · 16-06-2019 10:58am

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Plus having a debate about abortion wouldn't be seen as urgent as an imminent No Deal Brexit.

No but the Brexit issue is as divisive. Once the Citizens Assembly is under way, the can kicks itself down the road.

Stop moaning ffs · 16-06-2019 11:04am

Obviously they should have done it beforehand. Do it now you’ll just have people shouting ‘project fear’ when all the facts and outcomes are presented to the assembly.
There just isn’t the time left to do this now.

Professor Moriarty · 16-06-2019 11:06am

Sam Russell wrote: »

No but the Brexit issue is as divisive. Once the Citizens Assembly is under way, the can kicks itself down the road.

Well, one of two things would happen. They would agree a compromise which could then be presented to parliament as the true will of the people. Or they are unable to agree a compromise and parliament proceeds. It's worth a shot considering there are no other options bar a GE.

Shelga · 16-06-2019 11:08am

Strazdas wrote: »

Was that in Dalkey? I saw something on Twitter about him attending the book festival.

Must be great for him to be in a place where Brexiteers are regarded as total loons

Yep, at the Dalkey book festival. The panel discussion was really interesting. My friend was with me and is not familiar with James O'Brien- she wasn't very comfortable with the way he was being quite sneering and dismissive of the only woman on the panel- Pippa Malmgren, who is a former economic advisor to George W. Bush and was basically saying that Brexit isn't as big a deal as is being made out.

I could definitely see how he was coming off that way- but I think it's sheer frustration at having listened to views that are not based in fact endlessly for the last three years- as he said himself- "the fate of a nation hangs in the balance".

Professor Moriarty · 16-06-2019 11:09am

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Obviously they should have done it beforehand. Do it now you’ll just have people shouting ‘project fear’ when all the facts and outcomes are presented to the assembly.
There just isn’t the time left to do this now.

They also didn't have a referendum commission (ala Ireland) which was their first and worst mistake.

Stop moaning ffs · 16-06-2019 11:15am

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They also didn't have a referendum commission (ala Ireland) which was their first and worst mistake.

I guess you could say it was arrogance or oversight but it’s bizarre to me that our government weren’t approached even through back channels about how to do a referendum. It’s one thing we do really well.

That said Cameron etc were assuming that all this would never happen I suppose

Sam Russell · 16-06-2019 11:16am

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They also didn't have a referendum commission (ala Ireland) which was their first and worst mistake.

No - their first mistake was even thinking of having a referendum on the issue without first having a Royal Commission to examine and lay out the facts - beyond any reasonable doubt.

Constitutionally, a RC should have gone through the issue first and reported to Parliament. If a referendum was recommended and so be considered necessary, it should have its parameters clearly delineated, and it should have been clear that it could only be advisory.

Then the question would be put to Parliament - do we trigger Art 50 and begin negotiations. How did they join the EU?

Professor Moriarty · 16-06-2019 11:17am

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I guess you could say it was arrogance or oversight but it’s bizarre to me that our government weren’t approached even through back channels about how to do a referendum. It’s one thing we do really well.

That said Cameron etc were assuming that all this would never happen I suppose

Exactly. It was seen as a slam dunk.

Professor Moriarty · 16-06-2019 11:21am

Sam Russell wrote: »

No - their first mistake was even thinking of having a referendum on the issue without first having a Royal Commission to examine and lay out the facts - beyond any reasonable doubt.

Constitutionally, a RC should have gone through the issue first and reported to Parliament. If a referendum was recommended and so be considered necessary, it should have its parameters clearly delineated, and it should have been clear that it could only be advisory.

Then the question would be put to Parliament - do we trigger Art 50 and begin negotiations. How did they join the EU?

That's the point - there was no commission that cleary delineated the realities of the question being asked. So people believed Nigel and Boris.

They joined the EEC in 1973 with a confirmatory referendum on continued membership in 1975 - which passed with 67% in favour.

Stop moaning ffs · 16-06-2019 11:26am

As an aside I’d love to know the figures..that certain 60s-70s leaver age bracket shouting ‘we survived two world wars we’ll survive brexit!’
How many of them voted in that referendum to join the EU? Or against it?

Sam Russell · 16-06-2019 11:40am

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

As an aside I’d love to know the figures..that certain 60s-70s leaver age bracket shouting ‘we survived two world wars we’ll survive brexit!’
How many of them voted in that referendum to join the EU? Or against it?

Anyone under 75 did not survive the war, they were born after it. People who DID survive the war, voted to remain. War is not nice - and those that went through the nasty bits, did not speak about it - WW I or WW II (or the War of Independence or Civil War here).

Surviving war is not something to be proud of - do you here Americans being proud of the Vietnam War? The only people proud of war are the non-combatants.

Capt'n Midnight · 16-06-2019 11:40am

20silkcut wrote: »

Can they make life difficult for us though with regard to the landbridge to Europe if they did go rogue?
I’m sure they see that as a trump card in all this. Jacob Rees mogg has alluded to it several times in a vaguely sinister tone and others too.

The UK signed up to TIR in 1949.

If they leave the common market then they will need TIR for stuff going to Switzerland and other non-EU countries like Norway*. There's also the trains to China. Food ,especially fruit and early vegetables, and clothes from North Africa.

If there's a hard border they'll need it because most of the shipments between NI and GB go via Dublin port.

*Yes there is a ferry to Norway but its a 45 hour crossing, there's only two a week and its £869.21 + VAT for a van.

Half the traffic on the Irish Sea is already unaccompanied and beside we are in the CTA.

Over in Dover it's different. UK and French drivers could need visas on the other side, while both will wave an Irish passport through.

jochenstacker · 16-06-2019 11:57am

InTheShadows wrote: »

Which i could have the same confidence but after the way they treated us after the 2008 crash i have zero trust in anything the EU say.

You mean when Irish banks, due to incompetence and greed, threw more and more money into an economy that consisted of nothing more than an artificially inflated housing bubble, aided by a government that initiated soft touch regulations, which led to a massive economic crash made worse by an international economic crisis courtesy of the Bush administration?
When the Irish government subsequently decided to initiate a full bank guarantee and also decided to pay back even unsecured loans?
Yes, terrible, dastardly carry on from the EU.

Stop moaning ffs · 16-06-2019 12:06pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

Anyone under 75 did not survive the war, they were born after it. People who DID survive the war, voted to remain. War is not nice - and those that went through the nasty bits, did not speak about it - WW I or WW II (or the War of Independence or Civil War here).

Surviving war is not something to be proud of - do you here Americans being proud of the Vietnam War? The only people proud of war are the non-combatants.

Oh I’m well aware of that. But they go on like they won it and took part personally. When in fact they’ve probably only seen WWII movies.

Sam Russell · 16-06-2019 12:10pm

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Oh I’m well aware of that. But they go on like they won it and took part personally. When in fact they’ve probably only seen WWII movies.

The British did not win WW II, but they were on the winning side. As a consequence of WW II, they lost India, the rest of their Empire, and bankrupt their country. In 1948, they devalued the GB£ from GB£1 = US$4.00 to GB£1 = US$2.80. Their debts were denominated in US$.

Only by joining the EEC, and particularly the single market, did the get their economy back towards some form of global reach. They have decided to return to penury.

Igotadose · 16-06-2019 12:14pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

No but the Brexit issue is as divisive. Once the Citizens Assembly is under way, the can kicks itself down the road.

Brexit is WAY more divisive than repealing the eighth.

Stop moaning ffs · 16-06-2019 12:15pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

The British did not win WW II, but they were on the winning side. As a consequence of WW II, they lost India, the rest of their Empire, and bankrupt their country. They devalued the GB£ from GB£1 = US$4.00 to GB£1 = US$2.80. Their debts were denominated in US$.

Only by joining the EEC, and particularly the single market, did the get their economy back towards some form of global reach. They have decided to return to penury.

I was more speaking to the idea that the way they go on they think they won it singlehandley and saved the world. The Russians did more than anyone to defeat the Nazis but as we know, that’s been conveniently washed out of the history.

We get frustrated when we see the likes of UK politicians and ordinary Brits having no idea about our history with them. They haven’t a notion about their own history, the vast majority of them.
This is a huge contributing factor in all this brexit debacle.

16-06-2019 12:29pm

Not directly related to Brexit, but one of the unintended consequences of being too dependent on your neighbours.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-48652686
A massive electrical failure has left all of Argentina and Uruguay without power, according to a major Argentine electricity provider.

Reports said the power cut had also affected parts of Brazil and Paraguay.

Argentine media said the power cut occurred shortly after 07:00 (12:00 GMT), causing trains to be halted and failures with traffic signalling.

Ireland's interdependency on the UK is clearly being exposed by the fears of a no-deal Brexit.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Comments