Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Spanish Eyes

Joe_ Public wrote: »

What odds he'll be a Lib Dem before the end of the year?

This is indeed the time for LDems to maximise their vote. And they are doing it AFAIS.

But as for Stewart, I think he will see how the wind is blowing, and decide from there.

He comes across as someone who knows the score, and he knows that many others do not realise the impact of No Deal either.

A few weeks ago I had never heard of him. Now he may be the saviour.

A week sure is a long time in politics!

Joe_ Public

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

This is indeed the time for LDems to maximise their vote. And they are doing it AFAIS.

But as for Stewart, I think he will see how the wind is blowing, and decide from there.

He comes across as someone who knows the score, and he knows that many others do not realise the impact of No Deal either.

A few weeks ago I had never heard of him. Now he may be the saviour.

A week sure is a long time in politics!

Absolutely. I was being a bit glib with the Lib Dem thing, but to be honest, stranger things have happened and i know he sees himself as a dyed in the wool conservative, but i dont see why he wouldnt be entirely at home in the LD.

Only caught last 20 minutes of debate but presenter seemed to suggest that Rory had backtracked on his not joining a Boris cabinet? Was out all day so that would be a dreadful u-turn on what he said on tv this morning, hope i picked that bit up wrong.

gooch2k9

weemcd wrote: »

In my own view, this is how the debate went, there was little to no progress made on Brexit policy, so I'll go by their behaviours and how they came across:

1. Stewart - head and shoulders above the rest, only one who seemed to be able to speak outside of soundbites. Could be a future party leader. But not now.

2. Javid - behind Stewart but well ahead of the rest. Fairly affable, seemed relatable for a Tory.

****huge gap***

3. Hunt - fairly anonymous, didn't do much damage but didn't offer very much either.

Dead last - Gove & Rabb - these two numb skulls probably damaged their campaigns. Sound bite after sound bite, empty rhetoric, nothing new suggested. Also came across as very arrogant, self serving and willing to rest on their laurels. Terrible from both.

I agree Stewart was the only one able to talk off the cuff. All the rest were well rehearsed, Gove and Raab more obviously than the other two. Gove went a bit over the top defending Javid but it was a nonsense question. Hopefullly the BBC debate is better moderated.

I see little difference between Javid, Gove and Hunt. Raab will go nowhere as he is pushing a similar line to Boris. As other posters have said the only show in town in Stewart against Johnson.

Spanish Eyes

And Johnson will partake in the BBC debate on Tuesday, when he knows/thinks RS is out of the race.

What a muppet. I have every admiration for those who participated tonight good or bad.

Johnson is toxic to my mind. I cannot wait to see him in a debate.

Joe_ Public

It tells you so much about those backing johnson for the leadership that they dont even trust him to cope with these debates and with the wider media in general not to put his massive clown feet in it and trip his campaign up. So why on earth should they then trust him as party leader and of leader of the country at one of the most sensitive times in its modern history? Of course the answer is fairly obvious, all about self-preservation of the party and thats how party politics goes i guess.

trellheim

Johnson is toxic to my mind. I cannot wait to see him in a debate.

Trump debated Hillary and still won . We are not the audience that they will be playing to , it will be focus grouped to the max and he knows he will have to prepare like mad and put a different face on.

Capt'n Midnight

jm08 wrote: »

JAvid has just stated that Ireland are the key to unlocking the problem. OFfer to pay for it and Ireland will drop the backstop.

He's not offering much. Only about half what Capita got for mismanaging army recruitment which is a well understood task that uses existing tech , it's trivial compared to the border.


Besides the backstop is only a backstop.
Once there's a technology fix it won't be needed anymore. The only problems is that we need to see the proposed solution working, and given how insistent the UK is on getting rid of the backstop it's clear they don't see a viable alternative on the horizon.

Spanish Eyes

trellheim wrote: »

Trump debated Hillary and still won . We are not the audience that they will be playing to , it will be focus grouped to the max and he knows he will have to prepare like mad and put a different face on.

Yes I know that. It is MPs first and then the Tory Party membership after that.

Democracy in motion.

BorneTobyWilde

Rory won that debate by a landslide .

Professor Moriarty

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Rory won that debate by a landslide .

Would be great if he took out Irish citizenship and went up for election. I'd vote for him.

BorneTobyWilde

If it was a public vote he'd win. But it's a billy bullsh itter vote, and the biggest one will win.

Spanish Eyes

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If it was a public vote he'd win. But it's a billy bullsh itter vote, and the biggest one will win.

Indeed.

I am finding it difficult to understand how a new incumbent who is not voted for by everyone will lead the UK now without a General Election, and can decide everything.

The will of the people is sounding hollow.

Spanish Eyes

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Rory won that debate by a landslide .

Hi, could not watch it as mentioned above by me, could you elaborate thanks.

Water John

This can happen in many democracies. A diff party leader or indeed member of another party can become PM without a GE. What they require is the support of the majority of the Parliament.
Rory was a natural speaker and simply called out the Brexit nonsense being spouted by others, for what it is. A human being everyone could relate to and the audience of fence sitting possible Con voters loved him.

AFAIK no audience on Tues debate.

Professor Moriarty

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Indeed.

I am finding it difficult to understand how a new incumbent who is not voted for by everyone will lead the UK now without a General Election, and can decide everything.

The will of the people is sounding hollow.

It's fine. 124,000 pale, male and stale Tory party members know what's best for Britain.

BorneTobyWilde

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Hi, could not watch it as mentioned above by me, could you elaborate thanks.

He was refreshingly honest whenever he had something to say,and the audience applauded him loudly after every remark. He seemed to be the only one in room the audience could get behind.

BonnieSituation

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Would be great if he took out Irish citizenship and went up for election. I'd vote for him.

British citizenship is sufficient to stand in all Oireachtas elections except for Presidential.

devnull

Water John wrote: »

This can happen in many democracies. A diff party leader or indeed member of another party can become PM without a GE. What they require is the support of the majority of the Parliament.

Tories made a big deal of Gordon Brown doing it and wouldn't stop going on about it, they don't seem to have a problem with it with May or now.

Professor Moriarty

BonnieSituation wrote: »

British citizenship is sufficient to stand in all Oireachtas elections except for Presidential.

Great. I'll send him an email.

Headshot

I recorded the debate and currently watching it back at the moment

How good is Rory, he's destroying them tbh. We're looking at the reason why Boris was to cowardly to show up.

I would absolutely love to see Rory and Boris as the final 2. Boris would be destroyed tbh

Enzokk

I did like how Rory Stewart got one over the others on the question on the biggest area of priority other than Brexit. All the others have their area, all of which if I can recall was a priority because of the past 9 years policies, but he said he has 3 and started with the bottom of the three. When taken to task that the other were only able to give one and which one is his priority, he added something like, "I won't mention the northern powerhouse as my second priority", getting his chance to state three areas where the others only got one.

He did also mention the adult social care as well, which has received cuts he voted for so trying to sort out their own problems.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's fine. 124,000 pale, male and stale Tory party members know what's best for Britain.

I don't know what the number of members are but this tweet mentions 160 000 of which 70% is male so it is 112 000 pale male members that will decide the next leader.

https://twitter.com/alantravis40/status/1140100844433616899


Here is the replay of the debate for anyone that wants to watch it, without ad breaks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWdRE0XyecA

Water John

Should the 60% be expelled for supporting another party? If it can happen to Alastair Campbell.

Laois_Man

Headshot wrote: »

I would absolutely love to see Rory and Boris as the final 2. Boris would be destroyed tbh

Totally disagree. Not a chance! If it was a presidential style nationwide election, absolutely.....but the demographics of those voting are that of the staunchest Rule Britannia brigade there is!

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

I did like how Rory Stewart got one over the others on the question on the biggest area of priority other than Brexit. All the others have their area, all of which if I can recall was a priority because of the past 9 years policies, but he said he has 3 and started with the bottom of the three. When taken to task that the other were only able to give one and which one is his priority, he added something like, "I won't mention the northern powerhouse as my second priority", getting his chance to state three areas where the others only got one.

He did also mention the adult social care as well, which has received cuts he voted for so trying to sort out their own problems.





I don't know what the number of members are but this tweet mentions 160 000 of which 70% is male so it is 112 000 pale male members that will decide the next leader.

https://twitter.com/alantravis40/status/1140100844433616899


Here is the replay of the debate for anyone that wants to watch it, without ad breaks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWdRE0XyecA

Just to be pedantic, the latest official membership number from the Tory party itself was in 2018 and it was 124,000. Either way, it's a tiny fraction of the electorate.

Headshot

Laois_Man wrote: »

Totally disagree. Not a chance! If it was a presidential style nationwide election, absolutely.....but the demographics of those voting are that of the staunchest Rule Britannia brigade there is!

Apologies I should of corrected myself, I thought there was only 2 going to be debating on Tuesday but appears there will be more depending on the votes go

I want to see Rory on Tuesday right beside Boris going for the kill.

Leroy42

Going for the kill?

You mean by explaining reality and the craziness of no deal? What makes you think people will suddenly start to listen now?

Their own Chancellor has made it clear that no deal should not be considered and they are happy to dismiss him along with any and all reports, including their own.

Water John

Is 32 votes the Tuesday threshold?

bilston

Water John wrote: »

Is 32 votes the Tuesday threshold?

What did Stewart get last week? 19?

Can he find a other 13 votes from somewhere? Tobias Elwood had announced he is backing him now, so there is one more. Can he get another 12? I doubt it to be honest. Tory MPs will know what way the wind is blowing. They may not want to align themselves with someone who is very anti Boris.

Edit - I was going to add that some of Matt Hancock's 20 votes might go to Rory Stewart, but then I read that Hancock is backing Johnson...WTAF? Hancock was opposed to a no deal Brexit, he was even a Remain backer in the referendum, and now he is suddenly backing Boris!

Any wonder the public don't trust politicians.

Enzokk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Just to be pedantic, the latest official membership number from the Tory party itself was in 2018 and it was 124,000. Either way, it's a tiny fraction of the electorate.

It is a tiny fraction either way. It does seem like they have had an increase in membership since then and the article below has it at 160 000 since March this year. I have seen both numbers mentioned and I wonder if they have rules on how long you need to be a member to have voting rights.

Conservative membership swells by 36,000 ahead of leadership election

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

It is a tiny fraction either way. It does seem like they have had an increase in membership since then and the article below has it at 160 000 since March this year. I have seen both numbers mentioned and I wonder if they have rules on how long you need to be a member to have voting rights.

Conservative membership swells by 36,000 ahead of leadership election

Three months. If that's the case then I've no doubt the new members are hardcore Brexiteers. Anyone pro EU wouldn't bother joining them.