Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Joe_ Public

trellheim wrote: »

The DUP are never going to agree to the backstop ; the EU are not going to change it. The only answer to that is no deal. If, as is likely Boris Johnson is voted in as PM

remember - his constituency is Uxbridge.

When Runway 3 at Heathrow was up for a vote in the House of Commons he was Foreign Secretary at the time he was suddenly inspecting troops in Afghanistan so he would not have to vote against it, even though the Cabinet whipped it through. We can expect several re-runs of this behaviour

A constituency that, according to the polls, has moved from a Leave supporting one in 2016 to one now slightly favouring remain. Personally i attribute both of those positions to the "Boris factor."

What i find a bit odd, if not amusing, is this Conservative notion that Boris will be their saviour in the event of a GE and while i concede the polls certainly back that up to an extent, he's nowhere near guaranteed to win his seat back himself. The myth built up during the London mayoral elections that Boris was a populist vote getter across all sectors was well and truly punctured in 2017 when the swing from Con to Lab in Uxbridge was well above the average across the city. As things stand he's sitting on a majority a little above 5k and, as already stated, the mood of the constituency has edged towards remain. And that's not even mentioning the BP factor!!

Personally, i can't really see how a GE is going to help them out of the mess they're in, but there is at least some consolation in the thought that Boris is as likely as any of them to be swept away in the wash.

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

That article is pretty sobering read.

How can NI be just sitting by and letting this happen, and in the case of DUP actively seeking it?

Why are the farmers (well everyone really) effected not demanding a rethink?

The DUP is most likely in the same position as a lot of MPs will find themselves in again. When push comes to shove they have derided the WA, but that is what they have to support to get Brexit. There is no Brexit, orderly, other than that and unless they go for it they will either never leave or there will be chaos.

20silkcut

Lackadaisical wrote: »

Again though the Ulster Farmers Union are a bunch of logical, pragmatic people who are arguing based on facts, figures and science to a bunch of people who just want to wave flags and charge forward towards an imaginary destiny. They're not listening and they won't listen.

The farmers need to start protesting to get noticed.

There hasn’t been decent agrarian protests in Ireland since the days of the land league. There was the march to Dublin in 1966 but generally farmers on the island of Ireland and British farmers are a passive bunch in stark contrast to continental European farmers.
Farmers won’t come to the rescue here.
They might march when things get real bad but until then don’t expect anything.
And that will be well past SHTF.

Leroy42

Farmers, as a homogeneous group, have done relatively well out of EU and are looked after by governments. Thus mass protests are not required. They clearly have influence at the top tables.

Brexit in all forms, but particularly no deal, is a serious threat to this industry and yet farmers are doing nothing.

Are they really going to simply wait to see what happens? That is hope, nothing more.

It seems crazy that they are not out demanding answers. Who will cover any losses? Will the UK undertake a bailout similar to Trump of the soy beans farmers? Who will pay for the new testing regimes? Will there be enough vets?

BTW I am not saying this lies solely on the shoulders of farmers, just that they are going to be directly affected and as such one of the easier examples.

j8wk2feszrnpao

Leroy42 wrote: »

Farmers, as a homogeneous group, have done relatively well out of EU and are looked after by governments. Thus mass protests are not required. They clearly have influence at the top tables.

Brexit in all forms, but particularly no deal, is a serious threat to this industry and yet farmers are doing nothing.

Are they really going to simply wait to see what happens? That is hope, nothing more.

It seems crazy that they are not out demanding answers. Who will cover any losses? Will the UK undertake a bailout similar to Trump of the soy beans farmers? Who will pay for the new testing regimes? Will there be enough vets?

BTW I am not saying this lies solely on the shoulders of farmers, just that they are going to be directly affected and as such one of the easier examples.

I'm not a farmer myself, but the ones I know have taken repeated steps to get out of farming, esp small farmers. Brexit or not, it's not an attractive industry for those involved, and definitely not for those who wish to get into it.

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

One thing he does not mention is the problem facing milk lorries collecting milk along the border. Currently a milk lorry will cross the border several times picking milk up from either side of the border. Following no-deal, the lorry cannot pick up NI milk and mix it with Irish milk because it is not EU milk. So NI milk will no longer be collected.

He doesn't delve into the problem but does mention it. He didn't mention Bailey's Irish Cream, how many border crossings are needed during it's production ? Or the way some family farms have been split with the son getting the part on the other side of the border in an attempt to reduce exposure to Brexit. RTE have been covering this all along.

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2019/0614/1055418-double-whammy-a-no-deal-brexit-and-northern-ireland/

Food industry sources depict a perfect storm: tightly integrated, just-in-time food supply chains broken within weeks, millions of litres of milk being stranded

The merger of LacPatrick and Lakelands and Glanbia opening a new processing plant beside Waterford port would suggest that the dairy industry is taking big steps to workaround the problems of getting liquid milk across the border.

Capt'n Midnight

Headshot wrote: »

But wouldnt it be suicide for the conservatives to call a GE and risk the Brexit party possibly getting in power?

The polls suggest Boris could walk it with votes taken from the Brexit party.

But if he doesn't win he's still leader of the party for a year. And a week is a long time in politics. Especially if it's a hung parliament or Labour get themselves in a knot.

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

That article is pretty sobering read.

How can NI be just sitting by and letting this happen, and in the case of DUP actively seeking it?

Why are the farmers (well everyone really) effected not demanding a rethink?

Those gits in the DUP have been actively downplaying the trade between NI and the Republic and trying to make out most trade is NI-GB and goes via NI ports. As Tony points out (backed up with many stats), this is a downright lie from them.

20silkcut

munstermagic11 wrote: »

I'm not a farmer myself, but the ones I know have taken repeated steps to get out of farming, esp small farmers. Brexit or not, it's not an attractive industry for those involved, and definitely not for those who wish to get into it.

A lot of those farmers you speak of are probably part time with an off farm job so are not entirely dependent on it.
Most full time farmers are in the dairy sector which will survive any kind of Brexit not entirely unscathed but will survive. Milk can be turned to powder and sent anywhere in the world or put into storage until the market stabilizes . It’s not as heavily tarriffed worldwide as beef either. Is not as contentious in trade deals as beef. The South Americans are more than willing to take more of it in the current mercosur negotiations in exchange for their beef of course.
Full time beef farmers are mostly old men in the West of Ireland or massive farmers in the east and south, heavily linked to the factories , not exactly the militant protesting type. Not exactly a United bunch.

Enzokk

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The polls suggest Boris could walk it with votes taken from the Brexit party.

But if he doesn't win he's still leader of the party for a year. And a week is a long time in politics. Especially if it's a hung parliament or Labour get themselves in a knot.

I don't know how accurate that poll is, because it went on name recognition for the Tory leader only. Johnson has been more known than the other candidates and will thus have more support right now. This thread mentions a few problems that poll has.

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1138715049047076864

Lackadaisical

Leroy42 wrote: »

Farmers, as a homogeneous group, have done relatively well out of EU and are looked after by governments. Thus mass protests are not required. They clearly have influence at the top tables.

The farming lobby in the Republic is still hugely influential and the EU influence was absolutely NEVER driven by UK farmers. If anything Irish agricultural interested have been coinciding with France and so on where agricultural sectoral interests demand a lot more protection.

The UK has always, at government level, been the country that's demanding deregulation and unfettered freemarket capitalism approaches. I don't see the farmers of NI doing well under Tory lead. It will be sink or swim economics and if they can't produce cheaper than the global price, they'll simply be let sink.

Zubeneschamali

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The polls suggest Boris could walk it with votes taken from the Brexit party.

One poll suggested that, and it is a very silly poll.

Any GE before the Brexit/non Brexit would create a very divided and mixed up government, candidates from both the main parties would be running either pro or anti Brexit, deal or no deal platforms.
The electorate would have real difficulty in choosing between party or local candidate's stance.

Leroy42

Deleted User wrote: »

Any GE before the Brexit/non Brexit would create a very divided and mixed up government, candidates from both the main parties would be running either pro or anti Brexit, deal or no deal platforms.
The electorate would have real difficulty in choosing between party or local candidate's stance.

How is this any different to what it is at the moment?

listermint

Leroy42 wrote: »

That article is pretty sobering read.

How can NI be just sitting by and letting this happen, and in the case of DUP actively seeking it?

Why are the farmers (well everyone really) effected not demanding a rethink?

Because the dup want a border more than anything. That's all they've ever wanted.
In their minds a border puts up real barriers to the notion of United Ireland. Whether that view is true or not that's what they believe


They are sucking up to Johnson so the border is on the land north and south and it's not a sea border. Because given half the chance I think Johnson would just stick it down the sea and be done with it.

First Up

listermint wrote:

Because given half the chance I think Johnson would just stick it down the sea and be done with it.

I'd say he would. The calculation would then be how many votes it would get. He'd lose the DUP for sure and very likely some Tories. The question would then be how many Labour, Lib Dems and SNP would back it as the best of all the bad options available.

Uncharted waters and interesting times ahead. The only certainty is 100% EU solidarity.

Leroy42

Leroy42 wrote: »

How is this any different to what it is at the moment?

This is the reason why there will NOT be a GE before Brexit, the Last GE caused this mess.

ShooterSF

Also general elections shouldn't be single issue votes...

looksee

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/15/u...gbr/index.html

I will make another attempt to post this, and try and get it in the right forum... this article seems to me to be quite insightful, or am I not informed enough? Does anyone else have any views on it?

Headshot

looksee wrote: »

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/15/u...gbr/index.html

I will make another attempt to post this, and try and get it in the right forum... this article seems to me to be quite insightful, or am I not informed enough? Does anyone else have any views on it?

lol your not having much luck at the moment

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

How is this any different to what it is at the moment?

In fact a GE might give a very different result, with Remainers deserting Labour and the Tories to vote Lib Dem, and Brexiteers deserting likewise to vote Brexit party.

Strazdas

Headshot wrote: »

lol your not having much luck at the moment

I think it's this one about Boris Johnson :

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/15/uk/boris-johnson-brexit-deal-analysis-luke-mcgee-intl-gbr/index.html

cml387

Strazdas wrote: »

I think it's this one about Boris Johnson :

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/15/uk/boris-johnson-brexit-deal-analysis-luke-mcgee-intl-gbr/index.html

That's essentially the EU's hindsight belief that it would have been better for a hardline Brexiteer to have become PM in 2016.
A true believer, faced with the compromises required for a deal,might have carried the day

Sam Russell

cml387 wrote: »

That's essentially the EU's hindsight belief that it would have been better for a hardline Brexiteer to have become PM in 2016.
A true believer, faced with the compromises required for a deal,might have carried the day

No.

The EU had already decided what they would agree to before Art 50 was triggered. The only concession was to allow the backstop be extended to the whole UK.

On the point of whether we should allow a fudge on he backstop to avoid a no deal crash out, well the chaos at Dover will make the NI border as side show. That will cause a rethink by the UK in quick order, whereas a fudge remains that for ever and will cast a heavy shadow over our EU membership.

How long did the phantom ferry company keep its contract when it became known that it had phantom ships and a silted up port?

Scoondal

SNIP. This isn't a link repository.

Enzokk

looksee wrote: »

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/15/u...gbr/index.html

I will make another attempt to post this, and try and get it in the right forum... this article seems to me to be quite insightful, or am I not informed enough? Does anyone else have any views on it?

Well the author contradicts himself a little here.

Second, it cannot be overstated exactly how sick the EU is of Brexit. European diplomatic sources say that there is increasing support among the other 27 EU member states for Emmanuel Macron's view that a no-deal outcome isn't as bad as the ongoing uncertainty. They want Brexit over and done with, but don't want to throw Ireland, the country that a no deal would most affect other than the UK, under the bus.

This means that a few concessions to help the man they loathe get a deal over the line and finally be shot of this mess might not be the worst price to pay.

Should this happen, the politics of it would be very messy. Johnson, the darling of the Brexiteers, will try forcing a deal through parliament that he effectively quit May's government over. And if he fails to get a new deal approved, then it comes back to no deal or requesting a further extension.

I agree with him that more leaders in the EU will be getting sick of Brexit, but he doesn't make sense after this. They are weary to throw us under the bus so will offer concessions to Johnson on the one thing he needs it, the Irish backstop by throwing us under the bus? The only concession the likes of the ERG will accept is a time limit and it is one we will not give, because no-deal is just like a time limit.

Not a bad article, but I don't get how the EU will try not to throw us under the bus by throwing us under the bus, it is the circle that cannot be squared again.

Seth Brundle

Varadkar: Removing backstop 'is effectively no deal'

The taoiseach (Irish prime minister) has said removing the backstop from the Withdrawal Agreement, would be "effectively the same as no deal".

Leo Varadkar was responding to comments from some candidates seeking to replace Theresa May as prime minister.

Interesting video there to educate the English on what our border looks like

20silkcut

Enzokk wrote: »

Well the author contradicts himself a little here.



I agree with him that more leaders in the EU will be getting sick of Brexit, but he doesn't make sense after this. They are weary to throw us under the bus so will offer concessions to Johnson on the one thing he needs it, the Irish backstop by throwing us under the bus? The only concession the likes of the ERG will accept is a time limit and it is one we will not give, because no-deal is just like a time limit.

Not a bad article, but I don't get how the EU will try not to throw us under the bus by throwing us under the bus, it is the circle that cannot be squared again.

Is he arguing that a hard border in 5 years time ,whatever the time limit is, is better than a hard border in October ??

Enzokk

20silkcut wrote: »

Is he arguing that a hard border in 5 years time ,whatever the time limit is, is better than a hard border in October ??

He doesn't argue anything really as the author doesn't specify what the concessions are that the EU would be willing to give. So I am not sure what he means but I concluded the only concessions the UK wants is in the backstop.

Shelga

I met James O'Brien today! I was proper fangirling

Felt like a Trekkie at Comic Con :pac: