Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Lemming

trellheim wrote: »

Good point and what I had long feared - the majority are starting to harden toward the Dunkirk mentality "its our boat and we're all in it together, lets just get on with it good or bad" , so what the ERG had always hoped for is coming to pass

The simplest explanation for the low voter turnout at the EU elections is often more accurate than claims of abstract notions like the spirit of Dunkirk. Somewhere between the consistent albeit mistaken view of local & EU elections as protest votes and/or generally dismissed as unimportant by the electorate-at-large, and the electorates attention span being worn down by attrition regards Brexit.

Sam Russell

Before dismissing Churchill, he was very much in favour of the unifying of Europe as envisaged by the various initiatives that eventually led to the EU, and the ECHR. If he was the current PM, he would not be in favour of Brexit in any guise. He was a proponent of any measure that would prevent the causes of WW II from emerging again.

The other Hero of the Tories, Margaret Thatcher was very much in favour of the Single Market. Again, she would be very much against Brexit.

fash

Sam Russell wrote: »

Before dismissing Churchill, he was very much in favour of the unifying of Europe as envisaged by the various initiatives that eventually led to the EU, and the ECHR. If he was the current PM, he would not be in favour of Brexit in any guise. He was a proponent of any measure that would prevent the causes of WW II from emerging again.

was that not rather a proponent of unifying the other countries of Europe - but not the British empire? I'm sure others can confirm/correct.

Sam Russell

fash wrote: »

was that not rather a proponent of unifying the other countries of Europe - but not the British empire? I'm sure others can confirm/correct.

He was in opposition at the time - he could not provide any leadership for such action. He had left the stage and was not in power at the time when the UK could have joined the EEC as founder members (which was pre De Gaul), and De Gaul said 'Non' when they first applied.

The British Empire was already failing by 1960 (Winds of Change), with Ireland, India, and the Middle East already gone and most African colonies looking for independence through violent means, and the same in Asia. The USA was in rampant ascendancy, with its best friend - the lapdog.

An Ciarraioch

fash wrote: »

was that not rather a proponent of unifying the other countries of Europe - but not the British empire? I'm sure others can confirm/correct.

Yes, he envisaged a USE as a counterweight to both the US and Russia, but felt that Britain would still be able to operate as an independent global power. As late as 1942, he was still opposing Indian independence.

BluePlanet

J Mysterio wrote: »

Ireland created backstop ‘impasse’, says Donaldson - Irish Times

This guy is the expected leader of the DUP post Foster. :rolleyes:

It's not very professional of him to try and point fingers.
Perhaps the DUP are just getting more and more shrill the more pressure they feel under.

Sam Russell

BluePlanet wrote: »

It's not very professional of him to try and point fingers.
Perhaps the DUP are just getting more and more shrill the more pressure they feel under.

Perhaps they see Boris on the bus heading for them with its message '350 million ....' on the side of it.

trellheim

From the DUP Point of View the uppity southern Irish are causing the problem - this is the dialogue that they want create.

Professor Moriarty

trellheim wrote: »

From the DUP Point of View the uppity southern Irish are causing the problem - this is the dialogue that they want create.

Johnson has said that he will get rid of the backstop and so his lapdogs, the DUP, will dutifully yap on about how Ireland are to blame. In tandem, expect the Tory press - Telegraph, Mail, Express - to start blaming Ireland rather than the EU for the impasse.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Johnson has said that he will get rid of the backstop and so his lapdogs, the DUP, will dutifully yap on about how Ireland are to blame. In tandem, expect the Tory press - Telegraph, Mail, Express - to start blaming Ireland rather than the EU for the impasse.

They are only talking to each other though. Nobody outside this right wing nationalist bubble is paying the slightest bit of attention to anything they say any longer.

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Johnson has said that he will get rid of the backstop and so his lapdogs, the DUP, will dutifully yap on about how Ireland are to blame. In tandem, expect the Tory press - Telegraph, Mail, Express - to start blaming Ireland rather than the EU for the impasse.

They have been at that for a long time now. We should know our place, etc etc etc.

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote: »

They have been at that for a long time now. We should know our place, etc etc etc.

Not that much. Just the odd article. I remember one in particular where Ruth Dudley Edwards called Vradkar a "useful idiot" but they have been sparse on the ground. So far, the bile has been directed at the EU.

Because the Cabinet and Tories will take a lurch to the right under PM Johnson, and because they have to compete with Farage's motley crew, they will villify Ireland more. Not least because this is becoming an English Brexit rather than a British Brexit and so you will have English exceptionalism and the empire mentality coming to the fore. The Tories want England out and if they have to put the Paddies in their place in order to do so then that's not a problem. In fact, they've become a little too uppity. Isolate Ireland, put them under extreme pressure and they will tell the EU to change their stance. It's what I'd do if I were them.

Lackadaisical

All I would say is that the narrative of a bunch of British wannabe imperialist bullies, shouting jingoist nonsense and trying to steamroll Ireland tends to play extremely badly in the US and on the continent.

Whatever about the domestic audience of Brexiteer types, internationally it's a very negative image to send out and I wouldn't underestimate American attitudes either. Ireland's history reverberates with many Americans in a way that I'm not sure the right wing in the UK even begins to understand.

It also reopens old wounds around the former empire too.

They've also made horrendous statements to the EU calling basically for it's dissolution and have said extremely unplesant things about EU nationals living in the UK and even seem to be targeting them with "hostile environment" policies, or as I prefer to call it "institutionalised, passive agressive xenophobia".

So, using that kind or rhetoric beyond the pages of English tabloids, the DUP party conference and amongst Brexiteer lobbies is likely to not only fall flat but actually cause a lot of backlash.

Although, I don't think most of these politicians actually care about that fact that they've to negotiate trade deals with the EU. It's been entirely about domestic politics, jockeying for position and negotiating with the tabloids and themselves.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

They are only talking to each other though. Nobody outside this right wing nationalist bubble is paying the slightest bit of attention to anything they say any longer.

Which actually makes it more dangerous. This bubble is the British government.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Which actually makes it more dangerous. This bubble is the British government.

Absolutely, but it is a government that has "gone rogue". They are about to elect Johnson as PM and most of their members want No Deal. They are more likely to destroy themselves.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

Absolutely, but it is a government that has "gone rogue". They are about to elect Johnson as PM and most of their members want No Deal. They are more likely to destroy themselves.

We can but hope. The problem is that there is a consistent cohort of roughy 40-45% of staunch Leave voters who are driving this madness and it just so happens that their heroes are in power. It is now at the stage where if Johnson isn't seen to "deliver Brexit", the Tories are in serious existential trouble.

An Ciarraioch

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

We can but hope. The problem is that there is a consistent cohort of roughy 40-45% of staunch Leave voters who are driving this madness and it just so happens that their heroes are in power. It is now at the stage where if Johnson isn't seen to "deliver Brexit", the Tories are in serious existential trouble.

When you average the various polls conducted since the European election, the Tories are currently fourth on 19%, with the Lib Dems on 20%, Labour on 22% and the Brexit Party on 23%. Obviously, Johnson will give the Tories a boost, but both Labour and the Lib Dems seem well placed to capitalise if the negotiations continue to founder.

Notionally, that would give:

Labour 229
Brexit 133
Lib Dem 111
Con 101
SNP 52
Plaid Cymru 4
Green 2

With the new Lib Dem leader able to extract many demands from Corbyn.

Cal4567

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's not the place for a debate about Churchill but you would be surprised at some of his attitudes towards Ireland, its independence and its people. Anyway, what matters is what Tory party members think and they think he is a hero. Johnson is more Trump than Churchill but protrays himself as Churchillian. Anyone with half a brain would see that he is just a buffoon but these are strange times.

Churchill was born in the 19th century in the English very upper classes. He was an Empire man through and through. He saw throughout his lifetime, that very Empire being dismantled bit by bit and our efforts to do that 100 years ago were pivotal to the continuing break up of the colonies post WW2. No wonder he was peed off with us!!

Johnson has been quite clever to present himself as this sort of buffoon. He must have some brain though. He will be more of a figure head presidential PM with his Ministers doing the heavy lifting. His big test will be trying to hold all this together for the Tories.

Londoners I knew were charmed by him when he was Mayor. He does though come across as very likeable and people respond to that. Look at T May. Zero personality.

Johnson wouldn't be my cup of tea though but I can see why others admire him, despite all the obvious faults.

Cal4567

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Johnson has said that he will get rid of the backstop and so his lapdogs, the DUP, will dutifully yap on about how Ireland are to blame. In tandem, expect the Tory press - Telegraph, Mail, Express - to start blaming Ireland rather than the EU for the impasse.

In the UK, all my arch Brexit friends and aquaintances, are still on a headstrong anti EU rant. Ireland never comes into the conversation. It is as if we are not really there. Agree that may turn a bit if Team Boris targets the backstop but I see most Brits as really seeing us as part of their wider family. Every third person I meet here seems to have an Irish granny.

No, all the vitriol is squarely aimed at Brussels. The Brits I know, Brexit and Remain, though all agree on one thing. The DUP are feckin' loopy.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

We can but hope. The problem is that there is a consistent cohort of roughy 40-45% of staunch Leave voters who are driving this madness and it just so happens that their heroes are in power. It is now at the stage where if Johnson isn't seen to "deliver Brexit", the Tories are in serious existential trouble.

The hope would have to be that the harsh reality of No Deal will bring the whole Brexit facade crashing down. They're getting away with all the ideological and populist nuttiness at the moment as Britain has yet to be severely impacted by Brexit, but this can only carry on for so long.

Professor Moriarty

Cal4567 wrote: »

In the UK, all my arch Brexit friends and aquaintances, are still on a headstrong anti EU rant. Ireland never comes into the conversation. It is as if we are not really there. Agree that may turn a bit if Team Boris targets the backstop but I see most Brits as really seeing us as part of their wider family. Every third person I meet here seems to have an Irish granny.

No, all the vitriol is squarely aimed at Brussels. The Brits I know, Brexit and Remain, though all agree on one thing. The DUP are feckin' loopy.

Agreed but that won't stop Tory Central ramping up the pressure on Ireland.This is an existential matter for the Tory party. The party got a hard slap in the face in the Euro elections and it will now do anything it can to stay alive. I take your point that ordinary English people have no axe to grind with Irish people. However, most Tory MPs are sooooo upper class English and would be horrified to think they had Irish blood.

Zubeneschamali

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It is now at the stage where if Johnson isn't seen to "deliver Brexit", the Tories are in serious existential trouble.

Fail to deliver and UKIP the Brexit Party eats them from the right, deliver it and the LibDems eat them from the center when it becomes clear it was a dreadful mistake.

Either way, the Tories are in serious existential trouble.

Which is nice.

Zubeneschamali

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Agreed but that won't stop Tory Central ramping up the pressure on Ireland.

They'll ramp up the noise in the papers.


They are in no position to put actual pressure on anyone, especially an EU member.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

The hope would have to be that the harsh reality of No Deal will bring the whole Brexit facade crashing down. They're getting away with all the ideological and populist nuttiness at the moment as Britain has yet to be severely impacted by Brexit, but this can only carry on for so long.

The effect is kicking in now as car manufacturing takes flight and the false lift of Brexit stockpiling fades. Economic reality is coming down the tracks.

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The effect is kicking in now as car manufacturing takes flight and the false lift of Brexit stockpiling fades. Economic reality is coming down the tracks.

Also sterling is on a dive - down 5% in the last moth and down from 85p on 5th May to over 89p today.

Clearly the market is moving closer to parity by October if there is not some good news.

Professor Moriarty

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

They'll ramp up the noise in the papers.


They are in no position to put actual pressure on anyone, especially an EU member.

True. They're preaching to the choir.

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote: »

Also sterling is on a dive - down 5% in the last moth and down from 85p on 5th May to over 89p today.

Clearly the market is moving closer to parity by October if there is not some good news.

The only good news would be a soft Brexit or no Brexit. So...

johnnyskeleton

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In fact, they've become a little too uppity. Isolate Ireland, put them under extreme pressure and they will tell the EU to change their stance. It's what I'd do if I were them.

Except that that strategy makes the heads of smaller nations nervous. Talk of the EU ignoring a small nations interests would make Denmark, Sweden, Luxembourg, Malta, Portugal, Hungary, Czehia, Cyprus, Croatia, Solvakia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania etc nervous that they could be next. Of the EU 27, 8 States have a population less than ours and 20 including us have a population of less than 15m. Thats a lot of votes in the council.

So whatever about trying to convince the other 26 countries that there is a better way to deal with the border, or that Ireland could have special rules, treatment etc, which they might agree to, visibly throwing Ireland under the bus will never work with the EU. The smart play for a British PM would be to try to bring Ireland along, and with us the other small nations.

But of course for Boris et al, the idea that Ireland would be sacrificed, leave the EU, Greece and Italy would follow suit and the smaller nations would feel afraid of France and Germany is the ultimate Brexit prize. For them its not about actually leaving the EU its about breaking the EU apart.

BluePlanet

It seems to be Article 24 of WTO where Brexiters are believing Britain will be able to trade with the EU without any tariffs.

On Monday, a former leader of Britain’s governing Conservative party, Iain Duncan Smith, explained in the same paper why he was backing Boris Johnson to succeed outgoing Prime Minister Theresa May.

“Boris... believes that we should offer a trade deal and, while that is being negotiated, we should seek an implementation agreement with the EU under which we will both go to the WTO and invoke Article 24, which allows us to continue tariff free trade until the final deal is agreed,” he wrote.

Trade lawyers are exasperated that the Article 24 idea keeps resurfacing, calling it a “misrepresentation” and “utter nonsense”, while May has said it is “perhaps not quite as simple as some may have understood it to be”.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-trade/no-hope-of-avoiding-tariffs-in-no-deal-brexit-eus-malmstrom-idUKKCN1TF24K

This fact check website debunks it:
https://fullfact.org/europe/article-24/

johnnyskeleton

BluePlanet wrote: »

It seems to be Article 24 of WTO where Brexiters are believing Britain will be able to trade with the EU without any tariffs.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-trade/no-hope-of-avoiding-tariffs-in-no-deal-brexit-eus-malmstrom-idUKKCN1TF24K

This fact check website debunks it:
https://fullfact.org/europe/article-24/

Indeed and the lie is found in their own statement that the UK and EU will both go to WTO looking for it. The EU have offered a provisional agreement pending the implementation of a formal trade deal and the UK has agreed at the executive level but refused at the parliamentwry level. So how can the UK ask the WTO to accept a provisional free trade deal when they dont accept it themselves