Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

J Mysterio wrote: »

Its like the article i posted on Irish diplomatic opinion: UK politicians are used to ignoring Ireland - 'Irish stuff isn't important and can be ignored'. Or that is the way they always considered it. They are annoyed at having to deal with Ireland. Might explain Boris' flagrant shunning of Varadkar.

Leave them off, they are only cornering themselves.

I think Ireland is an "unexpected obstacle" to Brexit for them. As it was unexpected, they are trying to swat it away, downplay its significance or even to attach ulterior motives to the Irish Govt ie. the Irish objections about the border are not serious and they are just chancing their arm.

They cannot admit that overlooking the border issue and the GFA was a massive error on the Leave side.

Lackadaisical

I'd just add to that that I welcome the views of a pro-Brexit poster as I think it's very important and interesting to see both sides of the UK's political debate. I would caution though that this is not a UK-based thread and, as such, tends to take a fairly objectively critical view of all sides of the political debate in British politics and, obviously, we have skin in the game in the sense that Brexit has serious implications for Northern Ireland.

For the most part, I think looking back over the history of this thread (and it goes back to the dawn of Brexit as a concept) that most posters take a fairly pragmatic view of Brexit politics and have brought some really solid, facts-based debate and interpretation and also perspectives from from continental European points of view too at times.

All I'd say is if you're a pro-Brexit poster, see this thread as a window on the outside world and an opportunity to see another point of view. For the most part, most of us don't identify with any of the UK political parties, so you're getting a fairly objective reading of it, just from a largely Irish point of view.

My own personal point of view is that Brexit is a huge miscalculation, but that it's inevitable due to decades of anti EU sentiment in the UK and will just have to run its course. I don't really see any point in twisting the UK's arm or trying to make people who don't want to stay in the EU remain, but I think whatever happens the UK has a huge duty of care (including one that it agreed to in an international treaty) to ensure that Northern Ireland comes out of this unharmed. Beyond that, it's entirely a matter for the UK electorate, I don't agree with what's going on from a practical point of view, but all of the facts have been presented and arguments have been made, yet the direction still seems to be towards the door, so good luck to them, but just don't trash the furniture on your way out. I'd rather see a divorce that's the basis for a future friendly relationship than one that ends up turning into a mess.

serfboard

Lackadaisical wrote: »

I don't really see any point in twisting the UK's arm or trying to make people who don't want to stay in the EU remain

While I get your point, remember that it was the UK that asked for the two extensions that they have been given.

20silkcut

Lackadaisical wrote: »

I'd just add to that that I welcome the views of a pro-Brexit poster as I think it's very important and interesting to see both sides of the UK's political debate. I would caution though that this is not a UK-based thread and, as such, tends to take a fairly objectively critical view of all sides of the political debate in British politics and, obviously, we have skin in the game in the sense that Brexit has serious implications for Northern Ireland.

For the most part, I think looking back over the history of this thread (and it goes back to the dawn of Brexit as a concept) that most posters take a fairly pragmatic view of Brexit politics and have brought some really solid, facts-based debate and interpretation and also perspectives from from continental European points of view too at times.

All I'd say is if you're a pro-Brexit poster, see this thread as a window on the outside world and an opportunity to see another point of view. For the most part, most of us don't identify with any of the UK political parties, so you're getting a fairly objective reading of it, just from a largely Irish point of view.

My own personal point of view is that Brexit is a huge miscalculation, but that it's inevitable due to decades of anti EU sentiment in the UK and will just have to run its course. I don't really see any point in twisting the UK's arm or trying to make people who don't want to stay in the EU remain, but I think whatever happens the UK has a huge duty of care (including one that it agreed to in an international treaty) to ensure that Northern Ireland comes out of this unharmed. Beyond that, it's entirely a matter for the UK electorate, I don't agree with what's going on from a practical point of view, but all of the facts and arguments have been made and the direction still seems to be towards the door, so good luck to them, but just don't trash the furniture on your way out. I'd rather see a divorce that's the basis for a future friendly relationship than one that ends up turning into a mess.

Good post. And while I agree that brexit was always inevitable this current no deal situation was most definitely not.
And it does appear they are trying to trash the furniture on the way out or at least don’t care about the furniture.

Lackadaisical

serfboard wrote: »

While I get your point, remember that it was the UK that asked for the two extensions that they have been given.

I agree. I don't think anyone other than the UK's own internal political wrangling has been twisting its arm as it's not a referendum or political divide that has given a huge majority in favour of one thing or the other. So, basically they've been sitting on the step for the last couple of years having a huge internal argument. The EU has really played very little part in that at all, despite the media rhetoric in Britain itself.

I think though at this stage, come what may, if they are still determined to leave by October 31st, the shutters have to close. It's being dragged on far too long and it's getting to the stage that it's damaging EU and UK business due to huge uncertainty around regulatory issues and trade.

From an EU point of view, I think we can weather this but, I really can't see how the UK is going to do it. You're probably going to be looking at a rather belt-and-braces deal with the EU to ensure continuity of trade, but it will not be on the UK's terms as the EU isn't desperate to do any deals and won't be trying to achieve any kind of situation that causes risks to the internal market.

I think though it's just time to take a deep breath and look at how this can be practically dealt with to minimise impact on economy, without tying either party to the other. There's only so much that can be done though and I really don't think the EU should turn itself inside out or undermine itself to achieve this.

History won't be kind to a British politicians (including those of the DUP) if they destroy the GFA though and they're the one's ripping things up and moving, not the EU or Irish sides, so the burden of coming up with a solution is primarily with them.

Professor Moriarty

Lackadaisical wrote: »

I'd just add to that that I welcome the views of a pro-Brexit poster as I think it's very important and interesting to see both sides of the UK's political debate. I would caution though that this is not a UK-based thread and, as such, tends to take a fairly objectively critical view of all sides of the political debate in British politics and, obviously, we have skin in the game in the sense that Brexit has serious implications for Northern Ireland.

For the most part, I think looking back over the history of this thread (and it goes back to the dawn of Brexit as a concept) that most posters take a fairly pragmatic view of Brexit politics and have brought some really solid, facts-based debate and interpretation and also perspectives from from continental European points of view too at times.

All I'd say is if you're a pro-Brexit poster, see this thread as a window on the outside world and an opportunity to see another point of view. For the most part, most of us don't identify with any of the UK political parties, so you're getting a fairly objective reading of it, just from a largely Irish point of view.

My own personal point of view is that Brexit is a huge miscalculation, but that it's inevitable due to decades of anti EU sentiment in the UK and will just have to run its course. I don't really see any point in twisting the UK's arm or trying to make people who don't want to stay in the EU remain, but I think whatever happens the UK has a huge duty of care (including one that it agreed to in an international treaty) to ensure that Northern Ireland comes out of this unharmed. Beyond that, it's entirely a matter for the UK electorate, I don't agree with what's going on from a practical point of view, but all of the facts have been presented and arguments have been made, yet the direction still seems to be towards the door, so good luck to them, but just don't trash the furniture on your way out. I'd rather see a divorce that's the basis for a future friendly relationship than one that ends up turning into a mess.

I think that ship has sailed. Even if a deal is cobbled together, who would trust Britain in future? Who would invest in Britain in future? Who would have any goodwill towards Britain? As a country, they've shown themselves to be incapable of effective government. As a country, they've shown themselves to be arrogant, selfish and insulting. They've lost all credibility politically, economically and diplomatically. A divorce deal will happen, pre or post crashing out, but the EU will never again see Britain as trustworthy, friendly and respectful.

Lackadaisical

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think that ship has sailed. Even if a deal is cobbled together, who would trust Britain in future? Who would invest in Britain in future? Who would have any goodwill towards Britain? As a country, they've shown themselves to be incapable of effective government. As a country, they've shown themselves to be arrogant, selfish and insulting. They've lost all credibility politically, economically and diplomatically. A divorce deal will happen, pre or post crashing out, but the EU will never again see Britain as trustworthy, friendly and respectful.

Well, I think you're looking at a political 'blip', much like you are in the US with Trump. If you look at the longer term picture the UK has been pretty reliable. What will determine that future is whether British politics returns to a sane and even keel again or continues down this path of populist chaos.

If they can't stick to agreements and start ripping things up after they sign them and that becomes a trend, then I would say they're facing a situation where they end up with a huge problem. If this era of chaos ends and stability restores, maybe it will be overlooked and things will just return to some kind of new normal.

I would write off the current batch of Tories, but I wouldn't write off the UK on the basis of a couple of terms of lousy government.

I don't however think it's the EU's job to protect the UK from itself in this either. If there's a crash, there's a crash and I think we have to protect ourselves in that and be reasonable but not a door mat either. There's a certain degree of moral hazard in this that has to be felt to be understood. What the UK's had to-date is crazy politics that hasn't yet had any self-inflicted, palpable economic consequences, at least not palpable enough for your average punter to notice.

Professor Moriarty

Lackadaisical wrote: »

Well, I think you're looking at a political 'blip', much like you are in the US with Trump. If you look at the longer term picture the UK has been pretty reliable. What will determine that future is whether British politics returns to a sane and even keel again or continues down this path of populist chaos.

If they can't stick to agreements and start ripping things up after they sign them and that becomes a trend, then I would say they're facing a situation where they end up with a huge problem. If this era of chaos ends and stability restores, maybe it will be overlooked and things will just return to some kind of new normal.

I don't think so. Just like America, the angry uninformed have found their voice and people who will speak for them. The Brexit division isn't going away and that division makes them, as a country, untrustworthy and arrogant - their attitude to the GFA being a prime example.

Lackadaisical

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I don't think so. Just like America, the angry uninformed have found their voice and people who will speak for them. The Brexit division isn't going away and that division makes them, as a country, untrustworthy and arrogant - their attitude to the GFA being a prime example.

Again though, I don't think anyone can say for sure whether this is a blip or a trend yet. It will become more obvious if it continues into the next few terms. We're in a period of time where a lot of movements, both very positive and very negative, have been enabled by social media (although the UK tabloids have been playing that role for decades). However, there's a lot more to play out before I would conclude anything about whether this is a trend or a blip.

I think though the EU shouldn't become a political punch bag for a soon-to-be former member either and does need to draw a line under this soon. Whether it's a political blip or a trend, it also needs to face the reality of implementing its own policies.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think that ship has sailed. Even if a deal is cobbled together, who would trust Britain in future? Who would invest in Britain in future? Who would have any goodwill towards Britain? As a country, they've shown themselves to be incapable of effective government. As a country, they've shown themselves to be arrogant, selfish and insulting. They've lost all credibility politically, economically and diplomatically. A divorce deal will happen, pre or post crashing out, but the EU will never again see Britain as trustworthy, friendly and respectful.

I think the UK can only recover its reputation when the current (very large) bunch of hard right English nationalists get off the stage and the right wing press pipes down with its attacks on the EU and EU citizens.

As long as they are still in place along with their toxic media, it will be impossible for them to be taken seriously as a country.

Lackadaisical

Strazdas wrote: »

I think the UK can only recover its reputation when the current (very large) bunch of hard right English nationalists get off the stage and the right wing press pipes down with its attacks on the EU and EU citizens.

As long as they are still in place along with their toxic media, it will be impossible for them to be taken seriously as a country.

That may well happen and it wouldn't be the first time that there's been a huge shift in UK politics. I mean if you look back at modern British political history in the post WWII period, it is far from a picture of pragmatic stability. It went through periods of absolute chaos that brought about big shifts in politics.

If you look at the 1970s for example, or the Thatcher era of having half the country shut down in strikes and then and the Poll Tax riots that probably finished the Tories the last time around. You also had periods of economic turmoil and near hyper-inflation.

It's a country that tends to be able to sell and believe its own hype around being a paragon of stability and pragmatic politics, when the reality has often be extremely different. For example, the vast majority of commentators don't seem to be even aware that they had the first modern IMF bailout in the mid 70s.

All I'm saying is that the reality of Britain is more like Italy than it cares to accept - there's been a lot of lurching into serious crises and strange politics. If you compare it to most of the Northern European PR-based democracies, including post war Germany, the UK has been very unstable and swings wildly left to right from time to time.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

I think the UK can only recover its reputation when the current (very large) bunch of hard right English nationalists get off the stage and the right wing press pipes down with its attacks on the EU and EU citizens.

As long as they are still in place along with their toxic media, it will be impossible for them to be taken seriously as a country.

But they've been around a long time (remember Major's "bastards") and the Tory press has been spouting Europhobic bile for decades. These Little Englanders have become increasingly vocal and influential and at a time where populism is waxing. It will take at least a generation before they wash out.

serfboard

Someone linked this article earlier written by David Miliband. It's well worth a read, but here are some quotes:

David Miliband wrote:

No-deal cannot be sustained. It is a matter of time before we ask the EU for talks — and that will require that we agree to pay the bills, protect European citizens and guarantee no hard border on the island of Ireland. We will be back to the arguments that have been dodged for three years, except in a weaker position.

which is what many posters here have been saying.

David Miliband wrote:

Far from being a declaration of independence, no-deal will make us more dependent on others. It will heighten our dependence in the first instance on the currency markets — which are already flagging up that Brexit will make Britain poorer by ensuring just that.
...

for Johnson, an election campaign against Corbyn is 10 times more preferable to a referendum on Brexit. He fights a clear enemy. He unites the Tory and Brexit tribe. He splits the Opposition. He muddies the Brexit waters.

and finally

David Miliband wrote:

Brexit has been redefined by the Brexiteers. Long gone are their promises, including by the Prime Minister, that there would be no question of leaving the single market. Brexit now means no-deal Brexit, in contravention of the case made during the referendum.

There is nothing “democratic” about following through with a no-deal Brexit since it was never countenanced in the referendum campaign. The only democratic way forward is for no-deal Brexit to be put to a vote against Remain. This should be the call from all those concerned to preserve the integrity of the UK and the prosperity of its citizens. Of course it is risky to put no-deal on the ballot paper. The bigger danger is that we get no-deal without it ever being voted on.

Interesting stuff.

Besides this, I started reading about the history of the Miliband family on Wikipedia. The Miliband's grandparents grew up in the jewish ghetto in Warsaw. They subsequently migrated to Brussels after World War I. They fled Belgium in 1940 for Britain just after the Nazis invaded and Ralph, the Miliband's father, became an academic sociologist and member of the Labour Party.

Anyway, shortly after his arrival in England, Ralph experienced anti-semitism and wrote in his diary:

Ralph Miliband wrote:

The Englishman is a rabid nationalist. They are perhaps the most nationalist people in the world ... When you hear the English talk of this war you sometimes almost want them to lose it to show them how things are. They have the greatest contempt for the continent in general and for the French in particular ... England first. This slogan is taken for granted by the English people as a whole.

All of which still applies today.

Re-writing one of his lines above gives you:

When you hear the English talk of this war no-deal you sometimes almost want them to lose experience it to show them how things are.

And finally he wrote:

Ralph Miliband wrote:

To lose their empire would be the worst possible humiliation.

Indeed. You could argue that it is a humiliation from which they have not recovered.

Strazdas

Lackadaisical wrote: »

That may well happen and it wouldn't be the first time that there's been a huge shift in UK politics. I mean if you look back at modern British political history in the post WWII period, it is far from a picture of pragmatic stability. It went through periods of absolute chaos that brought about big shifts in politics.

If you look at the 1970s for example, or the Thatcher era of having half the country shut down in strikes and then and the Poll Tax riots that probably finished the Tories the last time around. You also had periods of economic turmoil and near hyper-inflation.

It's a country that tends to be able to sell and believe its own hype around being a paragon of stability and pragmatic politics, when the reality has often be extremely different. For example, the vast majority of commentators don't seem to be even aware that they had the first modern IMF bailout in the mid 70s.

Yes, I could see it happen. A change of government and all of a sudden the hard right are no longer dominating the airwaves. It's impossible to see how things can carry on as they are right now for much longer, with a country of 65m and its toxic press hating on its nearest 27 neighbours, blaming them for its own problems and describing them as "enemies" etc. Something has to give.

Lackadaisical

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

But they've been around a long time (remember Major's "bastards") and the Tory press has been spouting Europhobic bile for decades. These Little Englanders have become increasingly vocal and influential and at a time where populism is waxing. It will take at least a generation before they wash out.

The problem is that they wash out for a few terms, things start to look pragmatic and then the tabloids get bored of stability and ramp it up and you're back to the start of the cycle again.

I don't think it will wash out without the population actually having to live with their own choices though and it could be quite different over the years ahead as the buffering factor of the European single market and the EU doing trade deals for the UK by proxy will be gone and a big political punch bag will be gone too.

Professor Moriarty

Lackadaisical wrote: »

The problem is that they wash out for a few terms, things start to look pragmatic and then the tabloids get bored of stability and ramp it up and you're back to the start of the cycle again.

Exactly. Little Englander Brexiteers are here to stay. They may be a rump of a Tory party in opposition for one or two terms but they're not going anywhere.

Lackadaisical

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Exactly. Little Englander Brexiteers are here to stay. They may be a rump of a Tory party in opposition for one or two terms but they're not going anywhere.

Well, possibly one of the biggest changes that could theoretically happen might be the growth of the Lib Dems as the main centre-right bloc and the Tories being pushed to the extremities. It's not beyond the realms fo possibility. Arguably running your political system as a dichotomy between organised labour and organised capitalists in a 21st century post-industrial economy is probably a bit archaic anyway.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

But they've been around a long time (remember Major's "bastards") and the Tory press has been spouting Europhobic bile for decades. These Little Englanders have become increasingly vocal and influential and at a time where populism is waxing. It will take at least a generation before they wash out.

For certain, but things have finally come to a head after decades of a build up. British Euroscepticism is now being confronted with its own lies and delusion. I don't think the movement can survive Brexit. They've been spoiling for a defining showdown with the EU for years and the showdown is well underway.

If they're outside the EU, their very raison d'etre goes straight out the window. You cannot be a Eurosceptic if you're not part of the union.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

For certain, but things have finally come to a head after decades of a build up. British Euroscepticism is now being confronted with its own lies and delusion. I don't think the movement can survive Brexit. They've been spoiling for a defining showdown with the EU for years and the showdown is well underway.

If they're outside the EU, their very raison d'etre goes straight out the window. You cannot be a Eurosceptic if you're not part of the union.

They'll switch back to pushing the Tory party further to the right and further towards populism. Given Johnson's rhetoric on, for instance, law and order, it could be argued that they have already succeeded on both counts.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Exactly. Little Englander Brexiteers are here to stay. They may be a rump of a Tory party in opposition for one or two terms but they're not going anywhere.

But you cannot be a 'Brexiteer' if you've left the EU. According to them, Brexit as a process ends on the night of October 31, Britain is a free and independent nation and therefore British Euroscepticism comes to a conclusion, almost instantly.

Professor Moriarty

Lackadaisical wrote: »

Well, possibly one of the biggest changes that could theoretically happen might be the growth of the Lib Dems as the main centre-right bloc and the Tories being pushed to the extremities. It's not beyond the realms fo possibility. Arguably running your political system as a dichotomy between organised labour and organised capitalists in a 21st century post-industrial economy is probably a bit archaic anyway.

I dunno. Especially in England, there is now a cohort of nationalist voters (maybe around 40%) who have become entrenched in their new-found 'patriotism'. The Tories will eventually push the Brexit Party to the fringes with nationalism and populism and will then reclaim the right and centre-right ground. The question is whether the disparate opposition parties can coalesce into an effective counterweight. I'd be pessimistic given FPTP.

steddyeddy

The head of America's farming lobby says that the UK must accept US food standards in a trade deal. Project fear becomes project reality.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49353220

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

But you cannot be a 'Brexiteer' if you've left the EU. According to them, Brexit as a process ends on the night of October 31, Britain is a free and independent nation and therefore British Euroscepticism comes to a conclusion, almost instantly.

True but 'issues' such as protectionism, populism, anti-immigration et cetera will provide plenty of fodder for the likes of Johnson, Rees Mogg and Baker.

Harry Palmr

You'll remember those 80 million Turks who were coming to the UK to partake of the benefits system?

If we want to know where the UK economy actually stands, British Steel which went bankrupt is in principle about to be taken over by Oyak, the Pension Fund for the Turkish military and run by an ex army general. Which is rather brilliant. It's expected get the company for just £70m thanks to £300m of support from the Uk taxpayer.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/aug/16/british-steel-provisional-deal-with-turkish-bidder-could-save-4000-jobs-oyak

Also some were asking for sources re capacity of Irish warehousing that's now all but full
https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0816/1069149-ireland-running-out-of-warehousing-space-amid-fears-of-brexit/

prunudo

Harry Palmr wrote: »

You'll remember those 80 million Turks who were coming to the UK to partake of the benefits system?

If we want to know where the UK economy actually stands, British Steel which went bankrupt is in principle about to be taken over by Oyak, the Pension Fund for the Turkish military and run by an ex army general. Which is rather brilliant. It's expected get the company for just £70m thanks to £300m of support from the Uk taxpayer.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/aug/16/british-steel-provisional-deal-with-turkish-bidder-could-save-4000-jobs-oyak

Also some were asking for sources re capacity of Irish warehousing that's now all but full
https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0816/1069149-ireland-running-out-of-warehousing-space-amid-fears-of-brexit/

Have to admit being slightly amused when I heard the British steel story earlier. Wonder how Cummings plans to spin that news story?

BluePlanet

I think it results with the breakup of the UK.
Indy Scotland and NI dissolves.
Not sure what happens to Wales.
But England's future is wearing Serbia's boots.

johnnyskeleton

Mod note:

Thread closed. Could this mean Brexit is cancelled?