Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

devnull · 12-12-2018 11:05PM

Mogg Interview here if anyone hasn't seen it:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1072972511053275136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1072972511053275136&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.sky.com%2Fstory%2Flive-may-on-the-brink-of-a-leadership-challenge-11578479
Everytime I watch it I shudder to think of what he will do to the UK and he's so far up himself it's unreal.

I honestly think he is trying to create as much chaos as possible for a no deal, with his European passports and vested interests in this, people like him are just out for themselves.

The ERG will go down in history as one of the worst things to happen to the Tory party.

Enzokk · 12-12-2018 11:05PM

devnull wrote: »

You can't have a populist vote and then start saying peoples votes don't count because they didn't vote the way you wanted them to. They knew the rules before the contest took place.

If we're going down that road, then we can start excluding people who voted for Brexit as well, but Mogg would cry blue murder if we started doing that saying that everyone has a vote and to exclude them is undemocratic.

I should have clarified, the point he has is not that they won but that the PM is weak. Of those not dependent on her for their job in government less than half voted in favour of her.

It does seem that most journalists thought she would not have 100 votes against her and some were thinking even less, so if she did say she will not be in charge for the next election and those 117 that voted against her get angry enough with her deal and decide to burn their house down they could force a vote of no confidence in the HoC. If she loses that she has to resign as she said she will not be in charge of the next election.

Lets see how crazy they want to get, they sure seem to have no problem letting most of the UK burn and Ireland with it. Do you really think they wouldn't force a general election?

awec · 12-12-2018 11:07PM

Ultimately what I think will happen is things will trundle on for another month or so, then the EU and the UK will come up with some superfluous change of wording that allows May and the EU to sell it as a new agreement, but really contains no substantial change, and will allow MPs who have been so outspoken about not voting for the agreement to vote for the new version and save some face, once it finally sinks in that there is no alternative.

blackcard · 12-12-2018 11:09PM

Tell me how wrote: »

Enzokk wrote: »

Now I will not pretend to know what is meant by independent, non ministers?

They are not holding a position such as a ministry, secretary or envoy. Those who hold such positions receive additional wages and the argument being used is that they would not vote against her because they would be expected to resign from their position and therefore would lose the jobs and the wages.

On the other hand, you could say that those who voted against May were not getting additional wages and hoped they would under a new leader.

devnull · 12-12-2018 11:10PM

Enzokk wrote: »

I should have clarified, the point he has is not that they won but that the PM is weak. Of those not dependent on her for their job in government less than half voted in favour of her.

So my argument to him is if the Prime Minister is week then the mandate for Brexit is weak and add to that the fact that there was foreign money involved and people were misled and electoral rules were broken means there is a lot of valid reasons to hold a second referendum.

If he argues otherwise then he's basically saying that a vote is only binding when it suits him and not when it doesn't which is the kind of hypocritical rich boy attitude the likes of him has. You can't say there is a strong mandate for something when they get just over 50% and then argue when there is almost 65% for something else that isn't a strong mandate.

markodaly · 12-12-2018 11:10PM

awec wrote: »

The Labour plan is literally just "get another deal". The thing that's been ruled out numerous times.

The UK is heading for a crisis. No deal is a disaster, the government's plan is going down the toilet and the opposition have nothing to offer instead.

They are hopelessly divided, and that is just the Tory party.
Look across the bench at Labour, they can't even agree themselves what deal they would try and negotiate.

The tories are going through this cathartic experience now, Labour are holding off the inevitable as it will be their turn soon to put up or shut up on what Brexit they want.

BonnieSituation · 12-12-2018 11:12PM

seamus wrote: »

That's not how party politics work. You toe the party line or you leave. She only needs to find someone to replace the DUP.
As much as the SNP hate them, Sturgeon might be the one to turn to, in exchange for assurances about Scottish interests.

There is more chance of SF facilitating the Tories than the SNP at this stage. Especially seeing what happened when the SNP abstained bringing down Labour in 79 and ushering in Thatcher.

Unless the Tories promise indyref2 then there's little else for the SNP to engage them with.

Professor Moriarty · 12-12-2018 11:13PM

markodaly wrote: »

They are hopelessly divided, and that is just the Tory party.
Look across the bench at Labour, they can't even agree themselves what deal they would try and negotiate.

The tories are going through this cathartic experience now, Labour are holding off the inevitable as it will be their turn soon to put up or shut up on what Brexit they want.

How many Labour MPs want a hard Brexit?

hotmail.com · 12-12-2018 11:14PM

Lame duck Prime Minister if there ever was one.

She may not last the week.

Enzokk · 12-12-2018 11:16PM

devnull wrote: »

So my argument to him is if the Prime Minister is week then the mandate for Brexit is weak and add to that the fact that there was foreign money involved and people were misled and electoral rules were broken means there is a lot of valid reasons to hold a second referendum.

If he argues otherwise then he's basically saying that a vote is only binding when it suits him and not when it doesn't which is the kind of hypocritical rich boy attitude the likes of him has. You can't say there is a strong mandate for something when they get just over 50% and then argue when there is almost 65% for something else that isn't a strong mandate.

Agreed, JRM doesn't care about anything other than getting Brexit where he and his fellow bankers and investment houses can profit of the relaxation of regulations. He is as big of a snake as you can get in parliament and this is seen by his refusal to put his name forward as a potential leader. He would rather do his work from the backbenches and not take any responsibility.

All that said he is not wrong when he says she is weak. He has ulterior motives for saying it but that doesn't mean he is wrong on this point. That is all I was saying. A lot of the journalists agree with that point, even with 63% of the votes the PM will not have been strengthened by this result.

tuxy · 12-12-2018 11:16PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

Lame duck Prime Minister if there ever was one.

She may not last the week.

Why what's going to happen to her this week that's any worse than any other?

First Up · 12-12-2018 11:16PM

That could happen. You would hope that over the next month every Tory (and other) MP will get an earful from businesses in their constituencies pointing out the benefits of what the EU has offered and the impact of a disruption to trade (both ways) with the EU.

It might be enough to scare enough of them when project fear becomes more than a slogan.

Arghus · 12-12-2018 11:17PM

The situation is so crazy that even total wack-jobs like Jacob Rees Mogg sometimes manage to spell out the contradictions in the Government's position.

I'd say this is only the beginning of the insanity.

Water John · 12-12-2018 11:17PM

She got 200 votes against no candidate!!! She won't get any vote through the HoC, certainly not any Deal she'll get from the EU.

hotmail.com · 12-12-2018 11:18PM

tuxy wrote:

Why what's going to happen to her this week that's any worse than any other?

Britain, the great empire, can't have a lame duck as it's leader.

Fr Tod Umptious · 12-12-2018 11:18PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

Lame duck Prime Minister if there ever was one.

She may not last the week.

They said that on June 9th 2017.

hill16bhoy · 12-12-2018 11:20PM

There won't be "further reassurances". So what then?

https://twitter.com/Laura_K_Hughes/status/1072823547150655488

tuxy · 12-12-2018 11:20PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

Britain, the great empire, can't have a lame duck as it's leader.

People can spin this vote any way they like. She clearly made a decision long ago not to step down and will stick by it.

Enzokk · 12-12-2018 11:21PM

markodaly wrote: »

Maybe in your own neck of the woods and head, but the Tories hold 13 Westminister seats there, that is more than Labour and the Lib Dems combined.

So clearly not all of Scotland hated the Tories, as quite a lot of them vote for them.

FPTP can be deceptive when it comes down to seats. The Tories only received 41 000 more votes than Labour yet they have 6 more seats. The Libdems received 538 000 less votes than Labour in Scotland, yet they only have 3 seats less than them.

It will be interesting to see what voters make of the Tories in Scotland in the next election, seeing that all of their elected MPs voted with the government in all things Brexit.

mancduff · 12-12-2018 11:21PM

devnull wrote: »

Mogg Interview here if anyone hasn't seen it:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1072972511053275136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1072972511053275136&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.sky.com%2Fstory%2Flive-may-on-the-brink-of-a-leadership-challenge-11578479
Everytime I watch it I shudder to think of what he will do to the UK and he's so far up himself it's unreal.

I honestly think he is trying to create as much chaos as possible for a no deal, with his European passports and vested interests in this, people like him are just out for themselves.

The ERG will go down in history as one of the worst things to happen to the Tory party.

https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51D9pNuWizL._SY375_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg

He's a disaster capitalist.

https://youtu.be/LOb3FJhDbYs?t=80

10000maniacs · 12-12-2018 11:43PM

If May does not get the legally binding "sunset clause" on the backstop from the EU tomorrow, she has two choices, i.e. to agree to a second referendum or walk. Those 117 Tories will vote against her current deal.

Kermit.de.frog · 12-12-2018 11:45PM

Rees Mogg visiting the peasant land. Quite funny.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIt3PM5DF_c

seamus · 12-12-2018 11:56PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

Britain, the great empire, can't have a lame duck as it's leader.

I'm glad I wasn't the only one to think like this.

It's a genuinely scary time for British politics. Frustration that May is untouchable could cause some of the more radicalised Brexiteers to think about doing the worst.

briany · 13-12-2018 12:00AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Rees Mogg visiting the peasant land. Quite funny.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIt3PM5DF_c

I wonder if talking to those chavs made him give much thought to the idea of reintroducing workhouses? I'd say that in this time when things have swung back to the right, he'd get a bit of support if he publicly voiced the idea.

J Mysterio · 13-12-2018 12:01AM

If you think about it, 200 votes for her is almost 200 votes for her stewardship and thus, by extension, the Brexit negotiations, assuming she can get a new bow on the deal. The government now have a rough idea of what numbers she might possibly hope for and how many they might have to convince in the next weeks.

Winning a confidence vote is often a strange boost. I don't think labour will call a vote in parliament right now and they might let this trundle on till the next meaningful vote at the end of January.

May will have to keep pushing the unity line -
for Britain and the UK! - and try to draw in so many from Labour and the others as she can.

Its alarming to see how so many UK commentators seem to be talking about the DUP at the moment, increasing their relevance. Many elements in the UK clearly want to pressure the EU to screw Ireland, despite the fact that the EU have been steadfast in their support of us. Is there any way for May or the EU to placate the DUP? I don't think so.

For some reason 'the backstop' is now the focus of why the deal is 'bad' for the UK.

Headshot · 13-12-2018 12:02AM

seamus wrote: »

I'm glad I wasn't the only one to think like this.

It's a genuinely scary time for British politics. Frustration that May is untouchable could cause some of the more radicalised Brexiteers to think about doing the worst.

It's a blessing she's untouchable when you look at the other possible contenders for prime minister.

Imagine the ****ing likes or Boris Johnson or worse Mog as PM. It's a scary thought for me

Infini · 13-12-2018 12:02AM

seamus wrote: »

I'm glad I wasn't the only one to think like this.

It's a genuinely scary time for British politics. Frustration that May is untouchable could cause some of the more radicalised Brexiteers to think about doing the worst.

She could also carry out her threat to call off Brexit as well and direct the blame at others for it. That would be the one trump card she has left. I don't think she wants to go down as the PM who brought down Britain no matter how stubborn she might be and she knows noone else will be able to challenge her for a year. If all else fails she could call this whole thing off and end it rather than let a crash happen parliment might be divided but not a majority of then are dense enough to ruin the country over it. If the call to end Brexit is made it will pass considering the alternative.

10000maniacs · 13-12-2018 12:13AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

If you think about it, 200 votes for her is almost 200 votes for her stewardship and thus, by extension, the Brexit negotiations, assuming she can get a new bow on the deal. The government now have a rough idea of what numbers she might possibly hope for and how many they might have to convince in the next weeks.

Winning a confidence vote is often a strange boost. I don't think labour will call a vote in parliament right now and they might let this trundle on till the next meaningful vote at the end of January.

May will have to keep pushing the unity line -
for Britain and the UK! - and try to draw in so many from Labour and the others as she can.

Its alarming to see how so many UK commentators seem to be talking about the DUP at the moment, increasing their relevance. Many elements in the UK clearly want to pressure the EU to screw Ireland, despite the fact that the EU have been steadfast in their support of us. Is there any way for May or the EU to placate the DUP? I don't think so.

For some reason 'the backstop' is now the focus of why the deal is 'bad' for the UK.

She still has to convince 117 Tories and 10 DUP MP's to vote with her to get the meaningful vote through. A legally binding "sunset clause" on the backstop will help, but I don't think it's nearly enough to swing it.

J Mysterio · 13-12-2018 12:17AM

10000maniacs wrote: »

She still has to convince 117 Tories and 10 DUP MP's to vote with her to get the meaningful vote through. A legally binding "sunset clause" on the backstop will help, but I don't think it's nearly enough to swing it.

The EU dont want to offer a 'sunset clause' on a 'backstop'.

McGiver · 13-12-2018 12:17AM

awec wrote:

The UK is heading for a crisis. No deal is a disaster, the government's plan is going down the toilet and the opposition have nothing to offer instead.

While Trump and Putin are laughing. They are the true winners. The UK paralysed for years and thrown into political crisis. This level of destabilisation is sufficient to distract from and/or prevent any action being taken with regards Russia actually being involved in Ukrainian insurgency for years and long term intervention in Syria.

The EU is affected only partially by this Russian collusion but it's certainly destabilising as well.

Now after Brexit, they will keep supporting and aiding Front National, Northern League and AfD as their next step.

Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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