Royal Ascot 2018

Mgoraf wrote: »

He's just not quick enough for 10f on fast ground. He needs 12 at a minimum

Irish ledger next? ��

Jesus theyll hardly run him over 14f against OOSG and 4 pacemakers? Id be shocked.

KG, International, Irish Champion Stakes and Arc is my guess.

That’s the last of my gambling days anyway. Lumped on cracksman at 5/4 few weeks ago, how has he not beaten that field

kiers47 wrote: »

Bets
Kurious 14/1 - 1pt e/w 1/5 1-4 (PP)
Nelson 9/2 - 2pts win (most books)
Settle for Bay - 14/1 1pt e/w 1/5 1-6 (PP)
Raising Sand - 14/1 1pt e/w 1/5 1-6 (PP)

Best of luck.

Ok thats a bit better.
Profit of 10.80 points for today. -7 from yesterday.

I was sure Raising Sands had gotten up for the 6th but it seems he was just touched off. Anyway not so bad.

+3.80 points for the week. Will be back for more fun tomorrow.

I will add. What a trainer David Marnane is. (I am biased as i live with a couple of miles of him.) But the man has done incredibly well with any good horse he has gotten over the years and this lad no different. Hopefully he can take the step up to group class.

God damnit kiers keep the faith ffs

Ok balance for the week is standing at +3.80.

Today is another tricky day.

Norfolk
Before the week started i felt that if one of Ward's juveniles was to win a race then this would be the most likely as it looked to be the weakest field of the week. That being said ive no idea of the form and havent seen the filly run so i couldnt possibly advise a bet or having a bet on her myself. She has drifted to what is probably a biggish price on the back of some poor runs for his other runners though so i wouldnt put anyone off if they were inclined. I havent really looked at this field in much more detail but of the others Id fancy Koncheck to overturn the form with Vintage Brut. I think they are the likely pair to concentrate on. I dont like Land Force i seen him run in the Curragh when he broke his maiden and he didnt look the best built 2 y/o. The rest were much of a much on paper i thought. That being said there are to many unknowns and ill be passing.

Hampton Court
Im going to keep this simple here. I liked Hunting Horn's run lto in the French derby he stuck his head down and battled in what was a fairly messy race. Before that he wasnt beaten that far in a Sandown classic trial and the Chester Vase after that. It really doesnt look the strongest of races and he is seeing good to firm ground for the first time. I think he will be suited by the GF ground and i think he can take what is a pretty ordinary renewal of this. Wadilsafa is an interesting runner and could be anything however it is a big step up for him and ill gladly leave him beat me at the price. The fav Key Victory also ran in the french derby behind Hunting Horn and while he didnt get the best of runs i see no reason why he is 2 points shorter than Hunting Horn. The rest all need to step up i think to get to Hunting Horn's form level so ill pass on them also. 13/2 or so looks a bet.

Ribblesdale
A few of these horses are coming from the Oaks and the fancied ones who were well placed in the oaks have a history of being disappointing in this due to the general proximity of the races. Wild Illusion is clearly a talented filly and has a bucket in hand here but id take her on after a tough race in Epson. Likewise Magic Wand was disappointing in the Oaks so im going to pass on her also. Ive seen a number of shrewd judges put up the case for Perfect Clarity and i completely get that angle however she didnt go a yard in the Oaks and i couldnt back her at the current price on the back of that. Sun Maiden won a novice event lto and i couldnt back a twice raced novice winner in this especially at the price she is. The rest of them have about a stone to find to be winning this. However in saying that im going to take a swing at one here. Dont laugh but im going to back Sarrocchi. She ran in the 1000 guinneas at Newmarket and on the bare face of it finished a disappointing 12th of 15. However i dont think that tells the full story of that race for her. She gave Lordan an absolute nightmare of a spin and became really unbalanced on the downhill section of the course. She was beat from then and Lordan left her pretty much coast home where she looked to have a good bit left to give. Lto in the curragh she ran over 10f and ran a very nice race. She was beaten only 5 lengths in a group 3 where she was staying on all the time. She hung badly to the rail and i think she could have been a length or 2 closer with a bit more know how under her belt. Aidan is notorious for bringing these fillies on softly softly. I think she could take a step forward in what is a poorish race apart from 1 or 2. 33/1 is too big

Gold Cup
This is a perfect race to sit back and enjoy. I wont bore anyone with a big write up as i dont plan on a bet however im a big fan of each of the front 3 horses in the market. They all have their merits but i think there are a bit to many uncertainties to get involved. I think OOSG is probably the likely winner given the other 2 are stepping into the unknown of 2 and a half miles around Ascot. Torcedor maybe could knick a place if any of them disappoint.

Britannia
Ill keep this simple also. I could list about 12 horses here and wouldnt find the winner. Improving 3 year olds in a handicap is not exactly my forte. However in saying that i just defaulted to Jamie Spencer over the straight mile. I know people bang on about him over this C&D however it is completely justified he is exactly the man you want. The price isnt exactly amazing however but ill have a small bet on George of Hearts.

King George V
Another tricky handicap and another Aidan O'Brien selection. Lucius Tiberius was given an extremely easy time of it in the closing stages of a listed race lto by Seamie Heffernan in which the lads had the winner who took it up from LT about a furlong and a half out at Leopardstown. I usually like one drawn on the high side in this race. As counter intuitive as that is it seems to work out. I think 13 is fine. I would prefer about 16 or higher but 13 is grand. Im not going to write to much on the others as you could make cases for a lot of them. I think 93 is an extermely workable mark for this horse and 16/1 i cant pass.

Bets
Hunting Horn 13/2 - 1pt win (PP)
Sarrocchi 33/1 - 1pts e/w (most books)
George of Hearts 8/1 - 0.5pts e/w 1/5 1-6 (PP)
Lucius Tiberius 16/1 - 1pt e/w 1/5 1-5 (PP)

Best of luck. Hoping for a good day from Aidan :pac: