Royal Ascot 2018

madmoose

Not far off now, any early fancies at antepost stage? Had a few bets so far.

Queen Anne - Benbatl 8/1

St James Palace - Romanised 10/1, Gabr 14/1 ew

Queens Vase - Southern France 5/1, guess this goes off 5/2 or so.

King Edward - Mildenburger 7/1

Mgoraf

The Coventry looks a really hot race this year

longshotvalue

Actress will run well at a huge price . Different league hopefully might be a bit of value .

Mgoraf

aidankkk wrote: »

Actress will run well at a huge price . Different league hopefully might be a bit of value .

Different league has been very disappointing so far for AOB

longshotvalue

Mgoraf wrote: »

Different league has been very disappointing so far for AOB

Just means the price will be good . If she goes and is a big price I'll be going for her.

madmoose

Just added Benbatl at 8/1 for the Queen Anne as he has been confirmed, he will be half that on the day.

TheMilkyPirate

I like tip to win in the St.james palace and Battash to trounce the king's stand field.

Absolutely love Royal ascot cannot wait.

madmoose

Wesley Ward
Ward extremely bullish about chances of Royal Ascot juveniles
BY LEWIS PORTEOUS 7:34PM 11 JUN 2018
He has been here many times before, yet Wesley Ward may never have brought a more formidable team to Ascot than the ten-strong raiding party selected for royal honours next week.

The most successful trainer based outside Europe in the meeting's history, Ward already has nine winners gilded on Ascot's scoreboard, although his legacy stretches beyond success, having paved the way for his training counterparts in America to take on Europe's finest at the royal meeting.

Ward, who celebrated success at Royal Ascot on his first visit with two winners in 2009, has built his reputation on saddling monster two-year-olds with speed to burn and, with five juveniles among this year's squad, his youngsters again give him a nap hand to fear.

However, he will also send two three-year-olds and a trio of older horses into action - including dual Royal Ascot scorer Lady Aurelia - and is raring to return to Britain for his favourite meeting.

"I start training for Royal Ascot the Sunday after the last one ends," said Ward. "I start thinking about how I'm going to freshen something up for the winter that looks the quality to get back there the next year. Every horse I train I'm thinking Ascot because it's so special."

John Valazquez and Lady Aurelia (centre)
While a third straight win at the meeting for Lady Aurelia - who bids for her second King's Stand Stakes next Tuesday - would be a highlight, Ward clearly rates this year's team of two-year-olds among the best he has brought across the Atlantic, with Chelsea Cloisters, Our Passion and Moonlight Romance all potential aces among this year's juvenile pack made up solely of fillies.

"She looks as good as any two-year-old filly I've brought to the Queen Mary - her works have been eye-openers," said Ward when discussing Chelsea Cloisters, bidding to become his fourth winner of the Queen Mary.

"We've breezed her on the soft going and she relishes it - she eats it up. If it comes up hard and firm she will be ready but if there's give in the ground it will not be a concern."

Ward's bullish predictions do not stop there, with Windsor Castle-bound Our Passion and Coventry Stakes possible Moonlight Romance also setting his pulse racing.

"Every work from day one has been eye-opening," he says of Our Passion. "She was my favourite early on and I had to wait and wait until finally they had a turf race at Belmont and she won convincingly.

"She's got a European pedigree and is definitely not a dirt horse. On grass and Polytrack she's a definite Graded stakes horse."

Wesley Ward's Royal Ascot winners

Year Horse Race SP
2009 Strike The Tiger Windsor Castle 33-1
2009 Jealous Again Queen Mary 13-2
2013 No Nay Never Norfolk 4-1
2014 Hootenanny Windsor Castle 7-2f
2015 Acapulco Queen Mary 5-2f
2015 Undrafted Diamond Jubilee 14-1
2016 Lady Aurelia Queen Mary 2-1f
2017 Lady Aurelia King's Stand 7-2
2017 Con Te Partiro Sandringham 20-1
A definitive target for Moonlight Romance has yet to be reached but Ward rates her maiden win at Belmont highly.

"She had the best maiden breaker of all the ones I'm bringing," he said. "She was second on the dirt to Shang Shang Shang and there were no excuses but this filly, when we put her on the grass, she flew.

"I'm going to have to double her up somewhere or nominate her to the Coventry, but I'll sit down with her owner Mr Ramsey and decide what we're going to do."

The aforementioned Shang Shang Shang will go for the Norfolk Stakes, although any rain would be a negative, while Stillwater Cove is bound for the Albany and ready to "run a big race".

Wesley-ward-stock2-360
According to Ward, Lady Aurelia has "that fire in her eyes that she always has when she's about to run a big race" and he is growing in confidence that Bound For Nowhere, fourth in last year's Commonwealth Cup, can oblige in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes on the Saturday.

"His two comeback races this year were sensational," said Ward. "The first of those I ran him in no shoes because I didn't want too big an effort but he won with something in hand. I ran him in shoes last time and he won with authority over the best sprinters in the States.

"His breezes have been nothing short of phenomenal in the mornings and I'm so excited to run him in this race - he really is going to run the race of his life, which he needs."

Ward says it will take "something magical" from a rider who has not yet been chosen to bring Master Merion, owned by Derrick Smith's daughter Vivien and golfer Justin Rose's wife Kate, home in front in the Royal Hunt Cup, while Joel Rosario will be playing it late on Hemp Hemp Hurray, regular work partner of Lady Aurelia, in the Jersey Stakes.

His juveniles, along with Lady Aurelia, will arrive in Britain on Tuesday evening and for the first time will be boarding at Paul Cole's Whatcombe yard. The four remaining runners will arrive 24 hours later and include 2015 Diamond Jubilee Stakes winner Undrafted, who is not getting any younger at the age of eight but is certainly not coming just to make up the numbers in Saturday's Wokingham.

"I'm very excited about this guy," says the trainer. "Frankie is going to ride him and hopefully that magic between them from the past is still there. He's a seasoned warrior and, as long as he's good on the day, I'm looking at him to run a huge race."

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TheMilkyPirate

Yeah I just got the last of the 5/1 on Chelsea cloisters two days ago and will continue to back it up until the day. 7/2 best price today

del roy

top jockeys at royal ascot

Frankie Dettori

Dettori, the top current rider at Royal Ascot with 56 winners, missed last year with injury but had scored nine times at the previous three meetings. Those wins came for seven different trainers and all but one was sent off at 8-1 or shorter, which indicates he is a rider to follow when he gets the call-up for a fancied ride.

In the period 2014-16, he won on eight of his 34 rides (24%) at 8-1 or shorter for a level-stake profit of 13.13pt.


Ryan Moore

A good tactic at the past five meetings would have been to support Moore in races below Group level, where his 59 rides returned a level-stake profit of +10.11pt.

Another profitable angle is when he teams up with top jumps trainer Willie Mullins. They have combined eight times since 2012 for five victories, returning a healthy level-stake profit of +19.5pt.

It is rare for Moore to ride for Mark Johnston – indeed, it has happened just three times in the past decade at Royal Ascot – but they have combined for an 8-1 success and a 25-1 second, so it would be noteworthy should they reunite.


William Buick

This year’s Derby-winning rider has been on the scoreboard at Royal Ascot every year since 2011 and his record at the past five meetings (12 wins from 120 rides) is bettered only by Ryan Moore.

Last year Godolphin’s retained jockey had four winners from 24 rides – a 16.7 per cent strike-rate – and for backers that yielded a 23.1pt level-stake profit on all his rides.

At the past three meetings Buick is 4-36 (11%, +18.5pt) for Charlie Appleby and it is also worth noting any call-ups by Mark Johnston, who has provided two winners from eight rides at the past three meetings (25%, +6pt). Those winners were two of the only three Johnston rides priced at under 10-1, so the market is a good guide with this link-up.


Jamie Spencer

Spencer really shines over Ascot’s straight mile, especially in the week’s handicaps, and last year he delivered a 20-1 success on Con Te Partiro in the Sandringham Handicap and followed up with 25-1 shot Bless Him in the Britannia Handicap.

Since 2006, in mile or shorter races at all of Ascot’s fixtures, his rides in fields of 16-plus runners have shown a huge profit of +108pt (20 wins from 146 rides, 14%).


James Doyle

At the five meetings since 2013, Doyle is fourth on the jockeys' list with eight winners (behind only Moore, Buick and Dettori).

Like many up-and-coming riders, Doyle's early chances in the big races were mainly on second-strings and outsiders but the quality of his rides is improving fast and his record on Group 1 mounts at Royal Ascot priced at under 10-1 now stands at 115220110 (44%, +5.98pt) after last year’s wins on Barney Roy (5-2 in the St James’s Palace Stakes) and Big Orange (5-1 in the Gold Cup).

antietam

How in the name of God is Battaash 5/2 this is a monstrous price.Will be laying Without Parole who won a listed race last time out by .75L and now meets proven G1 horses and he is by the dud.Sergei Prokofiev 2/1 looks a certainty.2nd fav Calyx beat a donkey lto[who won a g5 all weather in a photo] O Briens won a listed in superb fashion at Naas and IMO could be a superstar sprinter on fast ground.MAX bet double Battaash/Sergei Prokofiev.Yucatan 12/1.He has run against far far better opposition than these glorified handicappers and drop in trip is a massive plus.

Mgoraf

Fairyland in the Albany the bet of the week for me

zimmermania

Many thanks to madmoose and Del ROY for the invaluable info provided,i will be paying particular attention to what both have written before placing a bet.

del roy

Lads
does anyone want me to post pricewise up here at 800pm the night before.

del roy

2.30 Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) 5f

Aidan O'Brien has declared both of his highest-rated colts for the Coventry instead, but he still has Van Beethoven and Land Force among others.

In the presumed absence of Sergei Prokofiev, the likely favourite is Wesley Ward's Keeneland dirt winner Shang Shang Shang, who is a filly with plenty of potential but hard to assess.

Sandown's National Stakes looked a strong affair and Vintage Brut, Sabre and Konchek could all meet again. Konchek did especially well from a wide draw and his trainer Clive Cox, an expert with sprinters, took this with Reckless Abandon in 2012.

Glory Fighter looked good beating Soldiers Call at Lingfield, but the runner-up has won since and is also highly regarded.

Selection: Konchek

3.05 Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3) 1m2f

A key stepping stone for three-year-olds heading for bigger things, or consolation for those dropping back in class, but a decent race in its own right either way.

Many of these have alternative engagements, but that's not the case with the Owen Burrows-trained Wadilsafa, a Frankel colt who made a big impression at Newmarket on his return and has been targeted at this since. Crossed Baton, last seen in the Dante, is another with no alternatives and could be a danger.

Key Victory and Hunting Horn, both last seen in the Prix du Jockey Club, and Nordic Lights, last seen in the Dante, understandably head the market as they would be taking a big drop in class if declared here.

Selection: Wadilsafa

3.40 Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) 1m4f

Irish-trained fillies have won five of the last seven runnings, but on this occasion the domestic team might have the upper hand, despite the continued absence of one-time Oaks favourite Lah Ti Dar.

Oaks second Wild Illusion and runaway Salisbury winner Sun Maiden dominate the betting, ahead of the clutch of Aidan O'Brien possibles headed by Oaks fourth Magic Wand. Lingfield Oaks Trial winner Perfect Clarity was only seventh at Epsom, but connections are adamant the rain-softened ground scuppered her chance and retain the utmost faith in her. She's a value proposition back on her preferred ground.

Selection: Perfect Clarity

4.20 Gold Cup (Group 1) 2m4f

The 2016 winner Order Of St George, just touched off by Big Orange at the end of a memorable duel 12 months ago, is a worthy favourite for a race Aidan O'Brien has won seven times in the last 12 years.

However, there is no doubting the new Weatherbys Hamilton Million bonus scheme has given the Cup scene a real shot in the arm, and three of the four winners of the initial qualifying races have made it to the second leg, with Yorkshire Cup winner Stradivarius and Sagaro Stakes winner Torcedor both live threats to the favourite, and his stablemate, the Ormonde winner Idaho unexposed over this extended trip if if taking up the option. Success for any of the trio would keep the bonus alive, and Stradivarius appeals as one who might even go all the way.

Vazirabad, running over here for the first time after a setback ruled him out 12 months ago, is likely to find conditions plenty fast enough.

Selection: Stradivarius

5.00 Britannia Handicap 1m

A tough one, and the draw will probably play a part.

George Of Hearts was clearly up against it when beaten only by Jersey Stakes hopeful Society Power over 7f here last month and looks sure to appreciate the extra furlong. He could be a landmark first winner here as a trainer for Richard Hughes.

Crack On Crack On has an exceptional turn of foot and is another big player, but his form is on turning tracks, whereas Corrosive, who also bids for a hat-trick, has looked very good in two straight-course 1m wins, including when beating Al Jellaby and Bacacarat here last month. Josephine Gordon rides Corrosive, and if he scores he is likely to be the first winner for a female rider since Gay Kelleway won the Queen Alexandra 31 years ago.

Selection: Corrosive

5.35 King George V Stakes (Handicap) 1m4f

John Gosden surprisingly hasn't won this since 1997, but he has a leading fancy in First Eleven, another Frankel colt who at Newbury last month scored by five lengths from King's Proctor, a rival who was already due a significant ratings hike. King's Proctor will be only 5lb better off here, and trainer Mark Johnston might have stronger contenders for a race he has won five times already, among them Baileys Excelerate, Communique and Making Miracles. The spectacularly bred Dubhe, a strong finishing Sandown winner from Communique over 1m2f last time, is perhaps the best prospect from Godolphin, who have had the winner in three of the last four years.

Selection: First Eleven

Mgoraf

Is hydrangea going for the mares race over a mile or the Prince of Wales??

TheMilkyPirate

del roy wrote: »

Lads
does anyone want me to post pricewise up here at 800pm the night before.

Yes.

One more sleep to Royal ascot, I know this is predominantly a jumps forum but this is the best week of racing of the year for me.

Queen Anne is a strange race with no real top class miler lining up closest to it would be Rhododendron, Winning the Dubai fillies mile second in a guineas and most recently winning the Lockinge but still with very good form over further. Can't have Benbatl I just don't rate SBS as a trainer and not sure what he was beating in Dubai. Also first run since returning. Recoletos I like but another with a suspicion that they are better over further although Ascots stiff finish may help there. All in all a poor renewal and Rhododendron would be my bet but a bit short now.

Coventry looks a two horse race with a good supporting cast. Calyx looked right out of the top drawer on debut and is a horse I'm really looking forward to seeing in the future but will more than likely be seen to best effect over further in time. I do think Calyx will turn out to be the best horse in the race but could be caught out by the speedier Sergei Prokofiev tomorrow over 6f. A no bet race for me and one to savour.

The Kings stand brings the eagerly anticipated clash of Battash and Lady Aurelia. LA loves Ascot and the vibes from Wards stable are very bullish but Battash is a rocket and this is going to be a race and a half. Can't see anything else troubling them, Blue point is top class but he's not a 5F furlong horse and finished last on his most recent start at Sha-Tin. Another watching brief.

Without parole has the potential to stamp himself as a superstar in the St.James palace tomorrow but there are dangers lurking not least Roger teals stable star Tip two win. Roger was very bullish before the Guineas where TTW outran his odds of 50/1 to finish a close up 2nd to Saxon warrior. With subsequent Derby winner and 3rd Masar and Roaring lion behind the form is strong. I feel if TTW was trained by someone more fashionable he would be at the head of the market here and I'm going to have a play at 5/1.

del roy

Lads I am aware some lads connot log on to gambling sites while they should be working but here is some stuff to read, during lunch hour please.




We kick-start another ROYAL ASCOT with the normal bang and three Group One's on the day with the Queen Anne Stakes, King's Stand Stakes and the St James's Palace Stakes the feature contests. But we've got all the opening day's races covered with key trends and stats - use these to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

2.30 - Queen Anne Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m

Recent Queen Anne Stakes Winners

2017 – Ribchester (11/10 fav)
2016 – Tepin (11/2)
2015 – Solow (11/8 fav)
2014 – Toronado (4/5 fav)
2013 – Declaration Of War (15/2)
2012 – Frankel (1/10 fav)
2011 – Canford Cliffs (11/8)
2010 – Goldikova (11/8 fav)
2009 – Paco Boy (10/3)
2008 – Haradasun (5/1)
2007 – Ramonti (5/1)
2006 – Ad Valorem (13/2)
2005 – Valixir (4/1)
2004 – Refuse To Bend (12/1)
2003 – Dubai Destination (9/2)
2002 – No Excuse Needed (13/2)
Queen Anne Stakes Trends

16/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/16 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Previous winners over 1 mile
13/16 – Had already won a Group 1 race
13/16 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs that season
12/16 - Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Won by a 4 year-old
10/16 – Had never run at Ascot before
10/16 – Trained by either R Hannon (3), A P O’Brien (3) or Godolphin (4)
8/16 – Won their previous race
7/16 – Favourites that were unplaced
7/16 – Ran in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury last time out
5/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 - Ridden by Frankie Dettori
Only 1 winner from Stall 1 in the last 10 runnings
8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 4 or higher
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 4/1


3.05 - Coventry Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 6f

Recent Coventry Stakes Winners

2017 – Rajasinghe (11/1)
2016 – Caravaggio (13/8 fav)
2015 – Buratino (6/1)
2014 – The Wow Signal (5/1 jfav)
2013 – War Command (20/1)
2012 – Dawn Approach (7/2)
2011 – Power (4/1 fav)
2010 – Strong Suit (15/8 fav)
2009 – Canford Cliffs (7/4 fav)
2008 – Art Connoisseur (8/1)
2007 – Henrythenavigator (11/4 fav)
2006 – Hellvelyn (4/1 jfav)
2005 – Red Clubs (11/2)
2004 – Iceman (5/1 jfav)
2003 – Three Valleys (7/1)
2002 – Statue Of Liberty (16/1)
Coventry Stakes Trends

16/16 – Won their previous race
15/16 – Had never raced at Ascot before
14/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 - Came from the top three in the betting
13/16 – Had at between 1 and 2 previous career runs
12/16 - Foaled in either Feb or March
10/16 – Won over 6f before
8/16 – Winning favourites (3 joint)
5/16 – Ran at either Newbury or Newmarket last time out
5/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon
1/16 - Won by a Jan foal
9 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 6 or higher
7 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 9-19 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 13/2


3.40 - King´s Stand Stakes (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 5f

Recent King’s Stand Stakes Winners
2017 – Lady Aurelia (7/2)
2016 – Profitable (4/1)
2015 – Goldream (20/1)
2014 – Sole Power (5/1)
2013 – Sole Power (8/1)
2012 - Little Bridge (12/1)
2011 - Prohibit (7/1)
2010 - Equiano (9/2)
2009 - Scenic Blast (11/4 fav)
2008 - Equiano (22/1)
2007 - Miss Andretti (3/1 fav)
2006 - Takeover Target (7/1)
2005 - Chineur (7/1)
2004 - The Tatling (8/1)
2003 – Choisir (25/1)
King’s Stand Stakes Trends

16/16 – Aged 7 or younger
14/16 – Had won over 5f before
14/16 – Had won a Group race before
13/16 – Aged 4 or older
12/16 – Finished first or second last time out
11/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Won by a non-UK based trained horse
9/16 – Favourites placed
9/16 – Had run at Ascot before (6 had won at the track)
6/16 – Ran at either Flemington (3) or Chantilly (3) last time out
6/16 – Favourites that finished third
3/16 – Won by an Australian-trained horse
3/16 – 3 Year-old winners
2/16 – Winning favourites
A horse from stalls 9, 11 & 14 has been placed in 9 of the last 10 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 15/2


4.20 - St James´s Palace Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m

Recent St James’s Palace Stakes Winners

2017 – Barney Roy (5/2)
2016 – Galileo Gold (6/1)
2015 – Gleneagles (8/15 fav)
2014 – Kingman (8/11 fav)
2013 – Dawn Approach (5/4 fav)
2012 – Most Improved (9/1)
2011 – Frankel (3/10 fav)
2010 – Canford Cliffs (11/4 jfav)
2009 – Mastercraftsman (5/6 fav)
2008 – Henrythenavigator (4/7 fav)
2007 – Excellent Art (8/1)
2006 – Araafa (2/1 fav)
2005 – Shamardal (7/4 fav)
2004 – Azamour (9/2)
2003 - Zafeen (8/1)
2002 – Rock Of Gibraltar (4/5 fav)
St James’s Palace Stakes Trends

16/16 - Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16– Previous Group 1 or 2 winners
14/16 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs that season
13/16 – Favourites that were placed
13/16 – Had won over a mile before
12/16 – Previous Group 1 winners
11/16 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
9/16 – Won their previous race
9/16 – Ran in the Irish 2000 Guineas (Curragh) last time out (7 won it)
5/16 – Had run at Ascot before
5/16 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
No winner from stall 1 or 2 in the last 10 runnings
6 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 4 or 5
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 3/1


5.00 - Ascot Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-95) 2m4f

Ascot Stakes Recent Winners

2017 – Thomas Hobson (4/1 fav)
2016 – Jennies Jewel (6/1)
2015 – Clondaw Warrior (5/1 fav)
2014 – Domination (12/1)
2013 – Well Sharp (9/1)
2012 – Simenon (8/1)
2011 – Veiled (11/2)
2010 – Junior (17/2)
2009 – Judgethemoment (13/2)
2008 – Missoula (20/1)
2007 – Full House (20/1)
2006 – Baddam (33/1)
2005 – Leg Spinner (9/1)
2004 – Double Obsession (25/1)
2003 – Sindapour (12/1)
2002 – Riyadh (7/1 fav)
Ascot Stakes Trends

14/16 – Carried 9-0 or more
13/16 – Won by a stable better known for their NH runners
12/16 – Had at least 1 previous run on the flat that season
10/16 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
10/16 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
8/16 – Won their previous race
7/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/16 – Trained by the Pipe stable
3/16 – Trained by Willie Mullins
3/16 – Winning favourites
6 of the last 10 winners came from a double-figure stall
No runners from stall 1 placed in the last 10 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 12/1

5.35 - Wolferton Rated Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+ 0-110) 1m2f

Wolferton Rated Stakes Recent Winners

2017 – Snoano (25/1)
2016 – Sir Isaac Newton (7/1)
2015 – Mahsoob (7/4 fav)
2014 – Contributer (9/1)
2013 – Forgotten Voice (12/1)
2012 – Gatewood (3/1 fav)
2011 – Beachfire (12/1)
2010 – Rainbow Peak (13/8 fav)
2009 – Perfect Stride (8/1)
2008 – Supaseus (12/1)
2007 – Championship Point (25/1)
2006 – I’m So Lucky (16/1)
2005 – Imperial Stride (25/1)
2004 – Red Fort (6/1)
2003 – In Time’s Eye (5/1)
Wolferton Rated Stakes Key Trends

13/15 – Had between 1 and 3 runs already that season
11/15 – Aged 4 years-old
11/15 – Had won 3 or more races during their career
10/15 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
10/15 – Unplaced favourites
10/15 – Finished unplaced last time out
8/15 – Had run at Ascot before
8/15 – Returned a double-figure price
7/15 – Ran at either York (4) or Goodwood (3) last time out
3/15 – Trained by John Gosden
2/15 – Trained at Kremlin House Stables (Roger Varian/M Jarvis)
2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Winning favourites
9 of the last 12 winners returned 7/1 or bigger
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 11/1

Mgoraf

Mgoraf wrote: »

Is hydrangea going for the mares race over a mile or the Prince of Wales??

She's going the mares races. Had her backed for the cracksman race. Think she had a great chance of beating him, mistake not running her imo!

del roy

DOs and DON'Ts at Royal Ascot. (Betting wise)

Do remember that the cream often rises. Last year five of the eight Group 1 races at Royal Ascot were shared between the powerhouse operations of Ballydoyle and Godolphin. Given they are able to rely on impeccably well-bred runners, their domination is expected to continue along the same vein this year.

Don't forget to shop around. Royal Ascot is an extremely important week for bookmakers and the competition to entice punters remains as fierce as ever. With concessions such as best odds guaranteed we've never had it so good, but the betting ring at Royal Ascot can see a wide variety of opinions from the Royal Enclosure right down to the Silver Ring. There's nothing worse than taking a price only to see it available a couple of points bigger a few pitches away.

Do respect the foreign invasion. In 2017 five races went the way of foreign raiders, four of them coming on the first two days, with French trainers taking three of those. The international challenge seems to get stronger each season.

Don't get sucked into a perceived draw bias on the straight track just because one side is favoured over the other on a particular day. For years those nearer the stands' side were advantaged, and exotic bets featuring runners starting from high numbers often paid out handsomely. However, mainly due to more consistent overnight watering by course officials during a dry week, it's amazing how quickly that can be wiped out the next day.

Do map out where the front-runners are likely to come from. It's no good lumping on a supposed Group horse masquerading in a handicap on the sprint course if it's drawn away from the early pace.

Don't discount all-weather specialists as Ascot is a sand-based turf track. Previous course form can also be important in handicaps for older horses too. For example, the Victoria Cup, run at Ascot in May, is often a stronger pointer towards the Hunt Cup. Last year Zhui Feng finished third before going on to make all at the royal meeting at juicy odds of 25-1.

Do take in the preliminaries. Whether on course checking out the parade ring or watching at home on the box as they go down to post, a horse can get badly worked up by the massive crowds and therefore run their race before even jumping out of the stalls.

Don't discount a jockey simply because their name doesn't jump off the page. Although Ryan Moore has emerged as top jockey at the meeting an astonishing seven times since 2010, breakthrough wins in 2017 for the lesser-known David Allan, Kieran Shoemark and Stevie Donohoe showed if you're on the right horse all you need is a little luck in running.

kiers47

Being more of a flat fan. This is by far my favorite week of the year.
I will try stick up a decent write up on the handicaps for each day which is where i will be doing most of my betting for the week. The Group races tend to be either wide open with the prices not reflecting that or else have a heavily fancied one who is way to short.

Just a few thoughts on the the feature races for tomorrow..

Queen Anne - This thing is wide open. Rhododendron probably the correct favorite but she seemed to get the ideal run in the Lockinge and it was a very proficient ride by the much recently slated(and possibly deservedly) Ryan Moore. Benbatl has been in Dubai which is usually an angle that can be taken on however i think he has a live chance also. The french horse also looks to be in with a right chance. I know a bit about the french form but not as much as others would so i wont pretend to be an expert. He beat Almodovar and Trais Fluors in the d'Isphan lto. He won that with any amount in hand and while i dont really rate them 2 as proper group 1 opponents he couldnt have done it any easier. Peslier up(an absolute legend) and he would probably just about get the shout for me. I think its between the 3. Ill just sit back and enjoy it.

Coventry - A bookies procession. Beware. Sergei looks a very smart horse. 5/2 is scandalous you'd need checking in to be backing something at 5/2 in this race. Similar comments apply to Calyx. Sergei went a fair bit left in Naas the last day and he wont get away with doing that tomorrow. Id be scratching around the rest for a bet in this tbh and would be inclined to leave it pass. Id imagine someone will go 4 places tomorrow and im going to throw a wild one up at what will be a mad price. 50/1 at the moment and on the face of things hasnt a rashers of winning. Richard Hannons Fox Champion. A maiden beaten by one of the rags lto in what was very soft ground at doncaster. 420k Gns son of Kodiac who was well fancied that day. Hannon(or at least his father has a great record in this race) winning it on 3 occasions with also a number of placed horses over the years. They usually target one at it and while Hannon Jr seems to be operating on more of an eye to the future with his horses than his father who had 2yo winners coming out his ears every year. I cant help but feel they must think a bit of this lad to chuck him in here on his 2nd start. Will have a look in the morning and hopefully someone will go 4 places. I think you can name your price with this lad. Very very small bet on Fox Champion.

King Stand - This will be quick. I like both the front 2 but i think Lady Aurelia should be clear favorite. Battash scrambled home the last day and while his first start i cant get that from my mind. LA will be geared up for this and i think she is a bet at about 2/1

St James Palace - I do like Without Parole but his price is a joke. Should be at least 4 or 5/1. He is a certainty to drift. Id like to see him win. Romanised is also way to short. I actually think Tip Two Win should probably be fav at about 4/1 and 9/2 Without Parole etc... Im not rightly sure there is a bet or at least i havent found one. Tip Two Win is probably the overpriced one at the front of the betting but im hoping Without Parole can take it.

Ascot Stakes - Ill have a good look at this later at first glance ill be swinging for one again in this race. Im looking at Cayirli for Seamus Durack at a wild price there is a bit of 66/1 around at the moment. Will throw up something more detailed later after some study.

Wolferton Stakes - No longer a handicap to my dismay. Not really a race i can see myself having a big bet in now that the conditions have changed. But i think id be prepared to forgive Fabricate for the poor run lto. He is relatively consistent and will probably run to about 105-110. Whether that is good enough is another thing. Morando another who i thought was of interest on his second start for Balding was sent off fav for the Balmoral at the end of last year but found trouble in running and finished a creditable 7th. Was 3 lto behind Fabricate and Crystal Ocean who is sure to take beating in the Hardwicke. I think ill probably have a small play on the both of these. Probably win or if someone sticks there neck out and goes 4 places will possibly go each way.


I doubt anyone will be following my wild selections and i probably have a different staking plan than most but roughly how i will play the above is like below.

Coventry - Fox Champion - 0.5pts e/w with 4 places - Currently 40/1 available. Will try to hold out for 50/1.
*Couldn't get 50s and the 40s was drying up so bit the bullet on 40/1
Non Runner now. Watching brief!
King Stand - Lady Aurelia - 2pts win at 2/1
Ascot Stakes - To follow(Will edit post) Possibly Cayirli at 66's but will be going through with a fine tooth comb later.
See the following post.
Wolferton - Morando/Fabricate dutched at 12/1 the pair. 0.5 pt win on both. (will consider each way i see a number of firms are going 1/5 odds first 4, Ill see if it weighs up to take enhanced place terms at 1/5 but probably not)
Win only on both of these. Didn't really like the place terms under the conditions.

BumperD

I’m going to have 1 decent bet each day on a group 1. The fav Lady Aurelia will be my day 1 selection, I’ve had little time to study the flat so far this season but aim to watch a lot of this week in the evenings after work. Brilliant week of racing ahead

kiers47

I'll start a new post rather than clutter up the other post I've made.

As stated the handicaps will be where the most of my money will fall this week. The ascot stakes is probably not the best race to take on Willie Mullins as he has a great record I just don't think there is anything of value in any of his entries. I like a couple of them in lagostovegas and whiskey sour however I'd be wanting bigger than they are going to be. I know nothing of the French horse that Moore is on but instinctively he seems short enough. The bloom horse also looks very short just because of the connections. The one I came down on was Dannyday. I had this horse in my tracker/notebook about 2 years ago after the Newcastle win in the plate consolation race. I took him out on a clean up as I thought he had been retired he has obviously had his issues being off the track for nearly 2 years however the comeback run the last day was a lovely run back and looks like he was looked after a fair bit by Dobbs. The race in Newcastle was pretty remarkable he ran into the world of trouble and tbh I'm still not sure how he won the thing. He looked like he had a stone and a half in hand that day. He must show a fair bit for them to persist with him after the problems and off 95 he could still have a stone in hand. I thought at 10/1 was very very fair.

The other that caught my eye I mentioned in the previous post. This is much more guess work but I have a hunch that this test will be bang up Seamus Duracks Cayirli's street. He is pretty lightly raced for a 6 yo and has only been to ascot twice running well both times. Once second in the queen alexandra to commissioned in 2016. The other time he didn't get much of a run in a mile and a half race and was a staying on 6th of 10 beaten about 3.5 lengths.. I have no idea how the hell he is 100/1 he is a Longshot alright but I had him a 33/1 shot or so. I can't leave him go unbacked at that price.

Will go as below on both.
Dannyday 10/1(with most books) 1.5pts e/w
Cayirli 100/1(Ladbrokes) 1pt e/w - Another NR I guess they will send him for the race on Saturday - not a fan of that decision thought the handicap was a better option but will probably try and back him at a similar price.
Both 1/5 first 5 places

antietam

Mgoraf wrote: »

Fairyland in the Albany the bet of the week for me

Best of luck but remember she is by Kodiac and plenty of them don't find much in a finish.I myself hate Kodiac as a stallion.

tryfix

A great day of racing tomorrow, with the Coventry being the highlight for me.

2.30 Benbatl
3.00 Sergei Prokofiev
340 Battash
4.20 Romanised

madmoose

The last race i can’t get away from Mirage Dancer at 6/1.

zimmermania

Great racing though many races will be won by those with most money at their disposal just as the premier division is fought out between those with most money to spend.
The first 3 races are likely to go to the fancied ones with the battle between Lady Aurelia and Battaash worth going a long way to see.

TIP TWO WIN would be a great result for Roger Teal in the 4 20 and is not without a chance.

The Ascot stakes is more competitive than usual and while COEUR DE LION has a big chance, Mullins handful of runners means its not race to have a bet in.

I have had a few quid ew on LESHLAA in the last at 25/1 with an extra place PP and while he has to give weight to the field he has good enough form to get involved in this,which represents a drop in class compared to his last few runs in Meydan and he did run a blinder at this meeting last year in the Britannia stakes finishing 5th of 29.

Zarkandar

2.30 Suedois 25/1 EW
Best on really fast ground and always comes on plenty for first run of season. Won G1 last season and then met traffic when 4th in BC Mile. At his best, 25s too big in open Queen Anne.

3.05 Fox Champion 40/1 EW
Hannon yard won the Coventry in 09 & 10 and Fox Champion who was bought for 420K in April. Only touched off a nose over 1/2f further last time on debut, beaten by a horse with experience and only one to come out of that since was last who won next time.

3.40 Bucchero 50/1 EW
Some of the US sprinters can fly over 5f and this won won a G2 before finishing ahead of Lady Aurelia in the BC Turf Sprint. Massive price at 50s.

4.20 Gabr 16/1 EW
Gabr was beaten less than 1 length by Without Parade on first run this season and is a much bigger price. Should come on for first run of the year, so may improve past the fav.

5.35 Muntahaa 28/1 EW
Muntahaa was 3rd in the G2 King Edward at 2016 Royal Ascot and was well beaten in the Hardwicke over 1m4f last year but was bang there 2f out and didn't look as if the trip suited. Dropping back to 1m2f may suit, he won John Porter on second run last season and was 2nd to Poets Word on second run in 2016 (also last run over this trip).

gazza1

2.30 Yoshida ew
3.05 Indigo Balance ew
3.40 Battash
4.20 Wootton
5.00 Chelkar
5.35 Yucatan

BOL

Mgoraf

Horses running in the Coventry on the back of just the 1 run have a decent record in the race but I can't have the favourite after making his debut only 10 days ago. He doesn't appear to be straightforward either having wore a hood at the start on debut. Can't imagine this large field is exactly what he wants at this stage of his career.

Surprised by the drift on Sergei, I hope his experience can give him the advantage today.

The other AOB horse already has a run at the track he could be worth an ew at the prices. Ran in the same maiden at Sergei and he should be 2 from 3 but for making a bad mistake at ascot on his second start

AnneFrank

Rhodo 2.30
Sergei 3.05
Kachy 340
Coeur de lion 5pm
Lucky 15 win

kiers47

Ground has been confirmed as Good to Firm all round anyway which is great to see.

Queen Anne is only 30mins away now and Benbatl has been by far the best backed horse. Nearing 3/1 with some books although Rhodendrum is still at the top of the betting on the exchange.
The French horse is taking a walk but id imagine this is to do with lack of support rather than anything else. If he continues to slide it might just tempt me to a bet. 13/2 - 7/1 would be hard to pass on.

**I put a back up at 8.0 on betfair that has gotten matched. :pac:
So much for a no bet race.
1pt win Recoletos 8.0 (betfair)

AnneFrank

Good luck !!!

Imhof Tank

Just glanced at the betting at the weekend and saw US Navy Flag at 6s with Paddy.

Into 9/2 >>> 4/1 now, would have to inspire confidence

kiers47

Imhof Tank wrote: »

Just glanced at the betting at the weekend and saw US Navy Flag at 6s with Paddy.

Into 9/2 >>> 4/1 now, would have to inspire confidence

The only issue i have with US Navy Flag is that i dont think he quite stays the mile and the mile in Ascot is pretty stiff.
Think the Jersey would be the perfect race for him.

Im also not sure how he is going to overturn 2 lengths with Romanised. Didnt look like there was much excuses that day.
I could eat those words later though :pac:

mickmackmcgoo

Bit of a shock in the first . 2 lowest rated in the field finish first and second

Imhof Tank

kiers47 wrote: »

The only issue i have with US Navy Flag is that i dont think he quite stays the mile and the mile in Ascot is pretty stiff.
Think the Jersey would be the perfect race for him.

Im also not sure how he is going to overturn 2 lengths with Romanised. Didnt look like there was much excuses that day.
I could eat those words later though :pac:

Yeah, just fancied him to come on again from the last run, especially given how he thrived on racing last year.

Ascot mile is stiff but wouldn't the Curragh be stiffer again?

BorneTobyWilde

Barbill 100-1 ew
Cosmic Law 10-1 ew
I like both of these
In 3.05

BorneTobyWilde

mickmackmcgoo wrote: »

Bit of a shock in the first . 2 lowest rated in the field finish first and second

I really liked Lord Glitter, so consistent, would have won but for traffic. Had to check few times, I backed it ew.

kiers47

Pretty big shock there in the opener. Not Soumillon's finest moment kicking for home about 4 out in a mile race. Id be fairly pissed if i was on Benbatl. He shaped like the best horse for much of that.

Recoletos sweated up pretty badly and broke poorly. Was staying on a bit but he never really got going.
Rhododendrum seemed to hit a flat spot id imagine she got burned out by the pace.
While i didnt back him i have a serious crush on Lord Glitters travelled very nicely into the race just got outdone for speed late on. Would love to see him win a big race like this. Great ride by Jamie in fairness, gave him every chance.
Limato doesnt stay now. Hasnt stayed ever. They need to give up on this Mile dream. Drop him to 6f. He would have been a serious contender on Saturday. But the connections are idiots.

Winner benefited from the front ones cutting their throat.
I must watch it back but anything up with the pace seemed to fall into a hole in the last furlong.

kiers47

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

I really liked Lord Glitter, so consistent, would have won but for traffic. Had to check few times, I backed it ew.

Id have to watch it back but thats the way he needs to be rode. He pulls himself up in front and needs to be just landed there coming through traffic. Like the horse myself thought it was a great ride at first glance.

TheMilkyPirate

Love to see Calyx hack up here.

mailburner

going with advertiser ew at 11s

top two a bit short for a race of this nature

kiers47

Imhof Tank wrote: »

Yeah, just fancied him to come on again from the last run, especially given how he thrived on racing last year.

Ascot mile is stiff but wouldn't the Curragh be stiffer again?

I wouldnt be an expert on track inclines tbh. I would have guessed they are similar in fairness.

kiers47

These front 2 in the market here are very short. Taking out about 60% of the book.

kiers47

Jesus he's an absolute rocket ship!!!

Al_Coholic

Thoughts on the ride on Sergei?
Found a lot of trouble in the middle of the race

UrbanFret

Al_Coholic wrote: »

Thoughts on the ride on Sergei?
Found a lot of trouble in the middle of the race

Another shocker from Moore. This season will finish him at ballydoyle I'd say.;)

TheMilkyPirate

That's what I wanted to see, destroyed his group

Johner

Al_Coholic wrote: »

Thoughts on the ride on Sergei?
Found a lot of trouble in the middle of the race

Best horse won.

mickmackmcgoo

Winner is good but Ryan Moore was asleep and got in trouble for a bit . Fancy sergi to beat the winner next time