Royal Ascot 2018

madmoose

madmoose wrote: »

Not far off now, any early fancies at antepost stage? Had a few bets so far.

Queen Anne - Benbatl 8/1

St James Palace - Romanised 10/1, Gabr 14/1 ew

Queens Vase - Southern France 5/1, guess this goes off 5/2 or so.

King Edward - Mildenburger 7/1

Terrible this looking back even now Southern France looks a poor bet with AOB having a few in and Moore overlooking it. Relying on the bottom one to save me ha!!

BumperD

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Chelsea cloisters bet of the week tomorrow

This is my Group 1 fav tomorrow ( I know it’s a group 2 but cannot get involved with cracksman that short). The yank on final furlong podcast gave cloisters a good shout. Zhui Feng in royal hunt cup 20/1 looks big based on last years win and decent comeback run I’ll stick the free ew bet b365 gave me on that ew

GL

TheMilkyPirate

kiers47 wrote: »

She's short enough. Hard to quantify the form but I thought shades of blue should at least be vying for favoritism. I thought she was the one to beat.
I don't know the first thing about US maiden form so I usually just take them on.

The price is absurd imo. But best of luck

She's short now alright, I have her backed at 5s last week so happy enough with that. I wouldn't know the first thing about US maidens either tbh but Wards record and his bullish comments swayed me. It's hard to shake the memory of LA destroying the Queen Mary field and Ward says this is right up there with the best he's brought over so that will do for me although I have had a saver on Shades of blue, Best of luck

Peintre Celebre

Thought Jessies might run well in the first and last. Amazing the Jersey is still a gr.3

kiers47

Actually correction on updating my spreadsheet this morning it was 7 points i lost yesterday. Brutal stuff.

Anyway onwards and upwards.
Queen Mary
The first race is an absolute minefield. I did back Shades of Blue last night on the first show. However the price is gone to a pretty tight level so id leave her run at the current prices. The favorite while Wesley Ward has a great record in the race i couldnt possibly back something at 5/2 in this that and i have no idea about US 2yo maiden form so im not going to talk her up or down. But instinctively i have to take her on. There are a number of other interesting fillies in the race notably Jessica's filly Servalan. She beat the O'Brien horse pretty convincingly in a listed event lto so im not sure how the O'Brien horse is a shorter price. The other i thought was of interest is Con Marnane's filly but again i know nothing about the form and havent seen either race she's contested. Kurious put up a very good performance in Sandown on debut and on a straight line through a Richard Hughes horse in that race has the beating of Shades of Blue, however she did it handy that day so id expect there isnt a lot in it. The 2 i fancy in the race are the the 2 English fillies towards the front end Shades of Blue and Kurious. Kurious i think is the bet though at the current prices if not already on anything 14/1 is to big.

Queens Vase
This race could be a cracker. I thought Nelson should be favorite here and tbh im pretty surprised Ryan is on Kew Gardens as i thought he would be the 3rd string. I dont really fancy Southern France i think this will come a bit soon for him. Nelson won the Ballysax pretty well on seasonal debut before disappointing in the Derrinstown where he didnt really go a yard and was ultimately beat a long way from home. I think that run can be ignored as clearly he was not himself. Donnacha gets the leg up and he looked previously a horse who had bundles of stamina. The rest are much of a muchness. Kew Gardens is interesting but he would be more interesting if Ryan hadnt chosen him and he was a 10/1 chance. I dont really fancy Stream of Stars. I think Aidan will win it and hoping it will be Nelson. About 9/2

Duke of Cambridge
Ill keep this simple as i havent really looked at it in any detail. I like Hydrangea to come on from seasonal debut and defy the G1 penalty. Also i thought Unforgettable Filly was a good bit overpriced but i havent looked at the race to closely so i will pass.

Prince of Wales
Cracksman

Royal Hunt Cup
Settle for Bay. Im a massive fan of this horse. He's currently rated 99 and tbh id be dissapointed if he couldnt win a handicap off that mark at some point however this is as competitive a renewal as ever. The other that i came down on was Raising Sand. I think the Victoria Cup lto was a pipe opener and he was slowly away before being relatively looked after by Dougie Costello when finishing down the field in that. Spencer up who is superb over the straight mile at Ascot i think he will be on the premises with a bit of luck.

Jersey
This is impossible again. James Garfield is interesting but he has to carry a G2 penalty. I cant believe i am going to say it but i thought Expert Eye was interesting dropped in trip and Grade. Ultimately there are to many unknowns for me to consider a bet. Would like to see Expert Eye get back on track.

Bets
Kurious 14/1 - 1pt e/w 1/5 1-4 (PP)
Nelson 9/2 - 2pts win (most books)
Settle for Bay - 14/1 1pt e/w 1/5 1-6 (PP)
Raising Sand - 14/1 1pt e/w 1/5 1-6 (PP)

Best of luck.

madmoose

madmoose wrote: »

madmoose wrote: »

Not far off now, any early fancies at antepost stage? Had a few bets so far.

Queen Anne - Benbatl 8/1

St James Palace - Romanised 10/1, Gabr 14/1 ew

Queens Vase - Southern France 5/1, guess this goes off 5/2 or so.

King Edward - Mildenburger 7/1

Terrible this looking back even now Southern France looks a poor bet with AOB having a few in and Moore overlooking it. Relying on the bottom one to save me ha!!

Now Mildenburger isn’t even declared after trainer said it was it’s target. I give up

kiers47

Fairly big drift on the hotpot in the first 7/2 on BF now and looks to be only going one way. Im not really sure what to make of that but i suspect it is just the market correcting itself from what was way too short of a price.

akelly02

kiers47 wrote: »

Fairly big drift on the hotpot in the first 7/2 on BF now and looks to be only going one way. Im not really sure what to make of that but i suspect it is just the market correcting itself from what was way too short of a price.

Hope you are right, i backed at 5/2 and i thought i was getting in before the money came

i was expecting it to go off around 7/4

kiers47

akelly02 wrote: »

Hope you are right, i backed at 5/2 and i thought i was getting in before the money came

i was expecting it to go off around 7/4

Ya not sure. Tbh i thought the race should be 4/1 the field and i thought Shades of Blue should be favorite or at least joint favorite but as i said in a previous post i know nothing about the Ward filly.

Mgoraf

She was visually very impressive in her debut run. Ward's runners normally go the other way in the betting so the drift would be a worry. Could be because of his flopping yesterday. I've shade of blue antepost but would be tempted by the fav at the prices now

longshotvalue

I've had a go at 7/2 feck it , most of the time his real supa-star wins . Haven't seen the horse but presuming it's way ahead of these in terms of fitness , build etc .

I also remember getting on Lady at around this price before the flood came.

BorneTobyWilde

Jeremiah 40-1 in 3.05
Think it's got a ew shot

Signora Cabello 25-1 in 2.30
Again ew.

AnneFrank

Shades of blue 2.05
New Gardens 3.05
Wilamina 3.40 all win

Tribute act e/w 3.40

Al_Coholic

BorneTobyWilde wrote:

Signora Cabello 25-1 in 2.30 Again ew.

Good shout

BorneTobyWilde

Al_Coholic wrote: »

Good shout

Seemed obviously the best one in race. Two wins on the bounce, and won a grade 1 last time out.
I expected a place as least, but wow great win. That's 3 in a row now.

TheMilkyPirate

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Seemed obviously the best one in race. Two wins on the bounce, and won a grade 1 last time out.
I expected a place as least, but wow great win. That's 3 in a row now.

Great shout but she was a listed winner last time out not a group one.

Frankie took two huge pulls straight out of the gate on Chelsea not sure why but probably wouldn't have won anyway.

kiers47

Shout there BorneTobyWilde!!

I thought Aidans shaped well in 4th thought she'd be the one to come on for it. The first 3 look nice fillies obviously. Like Shades of Blue of the 3 there didnt seem to be a whole pile to seperate them. Looked a good race anyway. Lots of promise in there.

kiers47

kiers47 wrote: »

Kurious 14/1 - 1pt e/w 1/5 1-4 (PP)

A value loser... Halved in price :rolleyes:
Hope its not going to be one of those weeks

AnneFrank

here comes the AOB show

kiers47

That was impressive from Aidan in fairness. I dont know what the plan is but i hope they step Southern France up further in trip again. Looked like he was only getting going.

The Mig

kiers47 wrote: »

That was impressive from Aidan in fairness. I dont know what the plan is but i hope they step Southern France up further in trip again. Looked like he was only getting going.

Triumph Hurdle 2019 for Joseph :pac:

kiers47

Why is there not 1 **** given about the races going off about 5mins or more late on a regular basis. Happens every year.

They dont even acknowledge that things are running behind schedule.

kiers47

Brutal run from Hydrangea. Doesnt look the same horse this year so far. The winner did it nicely. Great bit of training by Marco Botti was unlucky to run into Qemah in this last year.

akelly02

akelly02 wrote: »

€20 treble for me tomorrow, a get rich quick certainty really.

Chelsea cloisters 5/2
Aljazzi (nap). 9/2
Cracksman 4/7

Easy , isn’t it ?

my nap wins and i dont back her in a single

for ****s sake

cracksman to walk in now to sicken me altogether

Panrich

You'd be wary of Cracksman after that.

kiers47

Jesus he never went a yard there.

2ndcoming

Off work sick so getting to watch this for once.

Give me Cheltenham any day...

Mgoraf

He's just not quick enough for 10f on fast ground. He needs 12 at a minimum

Irish ledger next? 🀣

kiers47

Panrich wrote: »

You'd be wary of Cracksman after that.

In fairness Johnny G did flag up that he would be better in the Autumn prior to the race. But yes that was dissapointing really.

ANDREWMUFC

Crooks