Royal Ascot 2018

The Coventry looks a really hot race this year

aidankkk wrote: »

Actress will run well at a huge price . Different league hopefully might be a bit of value .

Different league has been very disappointing so far for AOB

top jockeys at royal ascot

Frankie Dettori

Dettori, the top current rider at Royal Ascot with 56 winners, missed last year with injury but had scored nine times at the previous three meetings. Those wins came for seven different trainers and all but one was sent off at 8-1 or shorter, which indicates he is a rider to follow when he gets the call-up for a fancied ride.

In the period 2014-16, he won on eight of his 34 rides (24%) at 8-1 or shorter for a level-stake profit of 13.13pt.


Ryan Moore

A good tactic at the past five meetings would have been to support Moore in races below Group level, where his 59 rides returned a level-stake profit of +10.11pt.

Another profitable angle is when he teams up with top jumps trainer Willie Mullins. They have combined eight times since 2012 for five victories, returning a healthy level-stake profit of +19.5pt.

It is rare for Moore to ride for Mark Johnston – indeed, it has happened just three times in the past decade at Royal Ascot – but they have combined for an 8-1 success and a 25-1 second, so it would be noteworthy should they reunite.


William Buick

This year’s Derby-winning rider has been on the scoreboard at Royal Ascot every year since 2011 and his record at the past five meetings (12 wins from 120 rides) is bettered only by Ryan Moore.

Last year Godolphin’s retained jockey had four winners from 24 rides – a 16.7 per cent strike-rate – and for backers that yielded a 23.1pt level-stake profit on all his rides.

At the past three meetings Buick is 4-36 (11%, +18.5pt) for Charlie Appleby and it is also worth noting any call-ups by Mark Johnston, who has provided two winners from eight rides at the past three meetings (25%, +6pt). Those winners were two of the only three Johnston rides priced at under 10-1, so the market is a good guide with this link-up.


Jamie Spencer

Spencer really shines over Ascot’s straight mile, especially in the week’s handicaps, and last year he delivered a 20-1 success on Con Te Partiro in the Sandringham Handicap and followed up with 25-1 shot Bless Him in the Britannia Handicap.

Since 2006, in mile or shorter races at all of Ascot’s fixtures, his rides in fields of 16-plus runners have shown a huge profit of +108pt (20 wins from 146 rides, 14%).


James Doyle

At the five meetings since 2013, Doyle is fourth on the jockeys' list with eight winners (behind only Moore, Buick and Dettori).

Like many up-and-coming riders, Doyle's early chances in the big races were mainly on second-strings and outsiders but the quality of his rides is improving fast and his record on Group 1 mounts at Royal Ascot priced at under 10-1 now stands at 115220110 (44%, +5.98pt) after last year’s wins on Barney Roy (5-2 in the St James’s Palace Stakes) and Big Orange (5-1 in the Gold Cup).

Fairyland in the Albany the bet of the week for me

Lads
does anyone want me to post pricewise up here at 800pm the night before.

Is hydrangea going for the mares race over a mile or the Prince of Wales??

Lads I am aware some lads connot log on to gambling sites while they should be working but here is some stuff to read, during lunch hour please.




We kick-start another ROYAL ASCOT with the normal bang and three Group One's on the day with the Queen Anne Stakes, King's Stand Stakes and the St James's Palace Stakes the feature contests. But we've got all the opening day's races covered with key trends and stats - use these to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.
2.30 - Queen Anne Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m

Recent Queen Anne Stakes Winners

2017 – Ribchester (11/10 fav)
2016 – Tepin (11/2)
2015 – Solow (11/8 fav)
2014 – Toronado (4/5 fav)
2013 – Declaration Of War (15/2)
2012 – Frankel (1/10 fav)
2011 – Canford Cliffs (11/8)
2010 – Goldikova (11/8 fav)
2009 – Paco Boy (10/3)
2008 – Haradasun (5/1)
2007 – Ramonti (5/1)
2006 – Ad Valorem (13/2)
2005 – Valixir (4/1)
2004 – Refuse To Bend (12/1)
2003 – Dubai Destination (9/2)
2002 – No Excuse Needed (13/2)
Queen Anne Stakes Trends

16/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/16 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Previous winners over 1 mile
13/16 – Had already won a Group 1 race
13/16 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs that season
12/16 - Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Won by a 4 year-old
10/16 – Had never run at Ascot before
10/16 – Trained by either R Hannon (3), A P O’Brien (3) or Godolphin (4)
8/16 – Won their previous race
7/16 – Favourites that were unplaced
7/16 – Ran in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury last time out
5/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 - Ridden by Frankie Dettori
Only 1 winner from Stall 1 in the last 10 runnings
8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 4 or higher
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 4/1


3.05 - Coventry Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 6f

Recent Coventry Stakes Winners

2017 – Rajasinghe (11/1)
2016 – Caravaggio (13/8 fav)
2015 – Buratino (6/1)
2014 – The Wow Signal (5/1 jfav)
2013 – War Command (20/1)
2012 – Dawn Approach (7/2)
2011 – Power (4/1 fav)
2010 – Strong Suit (15/8 fav)
2009 – Canford Cliffs (7/4 fav)
2008 – Art Connoisseur (8/1)
2007 – Henrythenavigator (11/4 fav)
2006 – Hellvelyn (4/1 jfav)
2005 – Red Clubs (11/2)
2004 – Iceman (5/1 jfav)
2003 – Three Valleys (7/1)
2002 – Statue Of Liberty (16/1)
Coventry Stakes Trends

16/16 – Won their previous race
15/16 – Had never raced at Ascot before
14/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 - Came from the top three in the betting
13/16 – Had at between 1 and 2 previous career runs
12/16 - Foaled in either Feb or March
10/16 – Won over 6f before
8/16 – Winning favourites (3 joint)
5/16 – Ran at either Newbury or Newmarket last time out
5/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon
1/16 - Won by a Jan foal
9 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 6 or higher
7 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 9-19 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 13/2


3.40 - King´s Stand Stakes (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 5f

Recent King’s Stand Stakes Winners
2017 – Lady Aurelia (7/2)
2016 – Profitable (4/1)
2015 – Goldream (20/1)
2014 – Sole Power (5/1)
2013 – Sole Power (8/1)
2012 - Little Bridge (12/1)
2011 - Prohibit (7/1)
2010 - Equiano (9/2)
2009 - Scenic Blast (11/4 fav)
2008 - Equiano (22/1)
2007 - Miss Andretti (3/1 fav)
2006 - Takeover Target (7/1)
2005 - Chineur (7/1)
2004 - The Tatling (8/1)
2003 – Choisir (25/1)
King’s Stand Stakes Trends

16/16 – Aged 7 or younger
14/16 – Had won over 5f before
14/16 – Had won a Group race before
13/16 – Aged 4 or older
12/16 – Finished first or second last time out
11/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Won by a non-UK based trained horse
9/16 – Favourites placed
9/16 – Had run at Ascot before (6 had won at the track)
6/16 – Ran at either Flemington (3) or Chantilly (3) last time out
6/16 – Favourites that finished third
3/16 – Won by an Australian-trained horse
3/16 – 3 Year-old winners
2/16 – Winning favourites
A horse from stalls 9, 11 & 14 has been placed in 9 of the last 10 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 15/2


4.20 - St James´s Palace Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m

Recent St James’s Palace Stakes Winners

2017 – Barney Roy (5/2)
2016 – Galileo Gold (6/1)
2015 – Gleneagles (8/15 fav)
2014 – Kingman (8/11 fav)
2013 – Dawn Approach (5/4 fav)
2012 – Most Improved (9/1)
2011 – Frankel (3/10 fav)
2010 – Canford Cliffs (11/4 jfav)
2009 – Mastercraftsman (5/6 fav)
2008 – Henrythenavigator (4/7 fav)
2007 – Excellent Art (8/1)
2006 – Araafa (2/1 fav)
2005 – Shamardal (7/4 fav)
2004 – Azamour (9/2)
2003 - Zafeen (8/1)
2002 – Rock Of Gibraltar (4/5 fav)
St James’s Palace Stakes Trends

16/16 - Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16– Previous Group 1 or 2 winners
14/16 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs that season
13/16 – Favourites that were placed
13/16 – Had won over a mile before
12/16 – Previous Group 1 winners
11/16 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
9/16 – Won their previous race
9/16 – Ran in the Irish 2000 Guineas (Curragh) last time out (7 won it)
5/16 – Had run at Ascot before
5/16 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
No winner from stall 1 or 2 in the last 10 runnings
6 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 4 or 5
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 3/1


5.00 - Ascot Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-95) 2m4f

Ascot Stakes Recent Winners

2017 – Thomas Hobson (4/1 fav)
2016 – Jennies Jewel (6/1)
2015 – Clondaw Warrior (5/1 fav)
2014 – Domination (12/1)
2013 – Well Sharp (9/1)
2012 – Simenon (8/1)
2011 – Veiled (11/2)
2010 – Junior (17/2)
2009 – Judgethemoment (13/2)
2008 – Missoula (20/1)
2007 – Full House (20/1)
2006 – Baddam (33/1)
2005 – Leg Spinner (9/1)
2004 – Double Obsession (25/1)
2003 – Sindapour (12/1)
2002 – Riyadh (7/1 fav)
Ascot Stakes Trends

14/16 – Carried 9-0 or more
13/16 – Won by a stable better known for their NH runners
12/16 – Had at least 1 previous run on the flat that season
10/16 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
10/16 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
8/16 – Won their previous race
7/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/16 – Trained by the Pipe stable
3/16 – Trained by Willie Mullins
3/16 – Winning favourites
6 of the last 10 winners came from a double-figure stall
No runners from stall 1 placed in the last 10 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 12/1

5.35 - Wolferton Rated Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+ 0-110) 1m2f

Wolferton Rated Stakes Recent Winners

2017 – Snoano (25/1)
2016 – Sir Isaac Newton (7/1)
2015 – Mahsoob (7/4 fav)
2014 – Contributer (9/1)
2013 – Forgotten Voice (12/1)
2012 – Gatewood (3/1 fav)
2011 – Beachfire (12/1)
2010 – Rainbow Peak (13/8 fav)
2009 – Perfect Stride (8/1)
2008 – Supaseus (12/1)
2007 – Championship Point (25/1)
2006 – I’m So Lucky (16/1)
2005 – Imperial Stride (25/1)
2004 – Red Fort (6/1)
2003 – In Time’s Eye (5/1)
Wolferton Rated Stakes Key Trends

13/15 – Had between 1 and 3 runs already that season
11/15 – Aged 4 years-old
11/15 – Had won 3 or more races during their career
10/15 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
10/15 – Unplaced favourites
10/15 – Finished unplaced last time out
8/15 – Had run at Ascot before
8/15 – Returned a double-figure price
7/15 – Ran at either York (4) or Goodwood (3) last time out
3/15 – Trained by John Gosden
2/15 – Trained at Kremlin House Stables (Roger Varian/M Jarvis)
2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Winning favourites
9 of the last 12 winners returned 7/1 or bigger
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 11/1

DOs and DON'Ts at Royal Ascot. (Betting wise)

Do remember that the cream often rises. Last year five of the eight Group 1 races at Royal Ascot were shared between the powerhouse operations of Ballydoyle and Godolphin. Given they are able to rely on impeccably well-bred runners, their domination is expected to continue along the same vein this year.

Don't forget to shop around. Royal Ascot is an extremely important week for bookmakers and the competition to entice punters remains as fierce as ever. With concessions such as best odds guaranteed we've never had it so good, but the betting ring at Royal Ascot can see a wide variety of opinions from the Royal Enclosure right down to the Silver Ring. There's nothing worse than taking a price only to see it available a couple of points bigger a few pitches away.

Do respect the foreign invasion. In 2017 five races went the way of foreign raiders, four of them coming on the first two days, with French trainers taking three of those. The international challenge seems to get stronger each season.

Don't get sucked into a perceived draw bias on the straight track just because one side is favoured over the other on a particular day. For years those nearer the stands' side were advantaged, and exotic bets featuring runners starting from high numbers often paid out handsomely. However, mainly due to more consistent overnight watering by course officials during a dry week, it's amazing how quickly that can be wiped out the next day.

Do map out where the front-runners are likely to come from. It's no good lumping on a supposed Group horse masquerading in a handicap on the sprint course if it's drawn away from the early pace.

Don't discount all-weather specialists as Ascot is a sand-based turf track. Previous course form can also be important in handicaps for older horses too. For example, the Victoria Cup, run at Ascot in May, is often a stronger pointer towards the Hunt Cup. Last year Zhui Feng finished third before going on to make all at the royal meeting at juicy odds of 25-1.

Do take in the preliminaries. Whether on course checking out the parade ring or watching at home on the box as they go down to post, a horse can get badly worked up by the massive crowds and therefore run their race before even jumping out of the stalls.

Don't discount a jockey simply because their name doesn't jump off the page. Although Ryan Moore has emerged as top jockey at the meeting an astonishing seven times since 2010, breakthrough wins in 2017 for the lesser-known David Allan, Kieran Shoemark and Stevie Donohoe showed if you're on the right horse all you need is a little luck in running.

I’m going to have 1 decent bet each day on a group 1. The fav Lady Aurelia will be my day 1 selection, I’ve had little time to study the flat so far this season but aim to watch a lot of this week in the evenings after work. Brilliant week of racing ahead

Mgoraf wrote: »

Fairyland in the Albany the bet of the week for me

Best of luck but remember she is by Kodiac and plenty of them don't find much in a finish.I myself hate Kodiac as a stallion.

2.30 Suedois 25/1 EW
Best on really fast ground and always comes on plenty for first run of season. Won G1 last season and then met traffic when 4th in BC Mile. At his best, 25s too big in open Queen Anne.

3.05 Fox Champion 40/1 EW
Hannon yard won the Coventry in 09 & 10 and Fox Champion who was bought for 420K in April. Only touched off a nose over 1/2f further last time on debut, beaten by a horse with experience and only one to come out of that since was last who won next time.

3.40 Bucchero 50/1 EW
Some of the US sprinters can fly over 5f and this won won a G2 before finishing ahead of Lady Aurelia in the BC Turf Sprint. Massive price at 50s.

4.20 Gabr 16/1 EW
Gabr was beaten less than 1 length by Without Parade on first run this season and is a much bigger price. Should come on for first run of the year, so may improve past the fav.

5.35 Muntahaa 28/1 EW
Muntahaa was 3rd in the G2 King Edward at 2016 Royal Ascot and was well beaten in the Hardwicke over 1m4f last year but was bang there 2f out and didn't look as if the trip suited. Dropping back to 1m2f may suit, he won John Porter on second run last season and was 2nd to Poets Word on second run in 2016 (also last run over this trip).

Horses running in the Coventry on the back of just the 1 run have a decent record in the race but I can't have the favourite after making his debut only 10 days ago. He doesn't appear to be straightforward either having wore a hood at the start on debut. Can't imagine this large field is exactly what he wants at this stage of his career.

Surprised by the drift on Sergei, I hope his experience can give him the advantage today.

The other AOB horse already has a run at the track he could be worth an ew at the prices. Ran in the same maiden at Sergei and he should be 2 from 3 but for making a bad mistake at ascot on his second start