Epsom Derby 2018

longshotvalue · 31-05-2018 2:01pm

Beginning to the The Pentagon is the Solid Bet EW in this race. He looks the type to run into a place here, as ive had a look at his races and he sticks his head down when passed. He could easily improve for this trip and race. Seems a lot shorted than 5/1 to place to me

Mgoraf · 31-05-2018 2:08pm

What would you base your 3/1 on?

He's 5 pound clear on rpr of two horses he has already beaten ( one he's beaten twice)

He's won the best trial for the race and is unbeaten.

He deserves to be the price he is.

2ndcoming · 31-05-2018 2:23pm

I disagree. Prices always skew in favour of the bookie, particular where "machines" like Saxon Warrior are concerned.

There is a question mark over whether he gets the trip so in the interest of fairness he should really be odds against. If he gets the trip 8/11 would possibly be fair, meaning if they ran it 11 times he would win 8. As most people make him the best horse in the race that is feasible. However if he doesn't they could more than likely run it til the cows come home and he still wouldn't win.

2/1 or even 5/2 seems fairer in a perfect world based on that. Good luck getting it of course.

31-05-2018 2:24pm

tryfix wrote: »

There are some mighty fancy prices available. As I see it neither the ground or competition will stop Saxon Warrior, only Ryan Moore can do that and I wouldn't put it past him to be out the back for most of the race.

Nothing wrong with being out the back. Last 10 winners comments in running:

2017: Held up off the pace in rear
2016: Held up in mid-division
2015: Keen early held up
2014: Held up in mid-division
2013: Held up towards rear
2012: Steadied start, held up in last trio
2011: Held up last
2010: Held up in mid-division
2009: Took keen hold early, handy in main group (this was STS, he was the last winner anything like prominent)
2008: Pulled hard, held up towards rear

There's zero evidence that being handy is important in the derby, if Ryan does have him out the back he's only learning from experience.

kiers47 · 31-05-2018 2:56pm

2ndcoming wrote: »

There is a question mark over whether he gets the trip so in the interest of fairness he should really be odds against. If he gets the trip 8/11 would possibly be fair, meaning if they ran it 11 times he would win 8.

This part is incorrect.

8-11 would imply if they ran the race 19 times he should win 11 of them. You were almost there

2ndcoming · 31-05-2018 3:36pm

kiers47 wrote: »

This part is incorrect.

8-11 would imply if they ran the race 19 times he should win 11 of them. You were almost there

Always mix that up. Still, the logic remains the same

antietam · 31-05-2018 4:40pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Beginning to the The Pentagon is the Solid Bet EW in this race. He looks the type to run into a place here, as ive had a look at his races and he sticks his head down when passed. He could easily improve for this trip and race. Seems a lot shorted than 5/1 to place to me

Sold part huge bet on Saxon Warrior and backed The Pentagon.Lies will be told on ground by officials.My absolute information is the ground is summer heavy .

Mgoraf · 31-05-2018 5:33pm

The Pentagon is crying out for this trip but he needs fast ground.

diomed · 31-05-2018 5:42pm

Mgoraf wrote: »

What would you base your 3/1 on?
He's 5 pound clear on rpr of two horses he has already beaten ( one he's beaten twice)
He's won the best trial for the race and is unbeaten.
He deserves to be the price he is.

Unbeaten ... people can't see him beat
People can't see it until they see it, then they can't believe it.

Hector Protector came in unbeaten, 8 wins; 4th (6/1 3rd fav)
Tenby with 5 wins, 4/5 fav, 10th
Alhaarth 4 wins as a 2yo, 2/1 fav 2000 Guineas, beaten
Celtic Swing into the 2000 Guineas 4 wins, 4/5 fav, beaten

He's won the best trial for the race
There has been 10* beaten odds on Derby favourites that had won the 2000 Guineas
32 odds on favourites ran in the Derby, 18 won.
The 2000 Guineas winners & Derby odds on losers: Wizard *, Riddlesworth*, Macgregor*, Surefoot*, St Frusquin*, Slieve Gallion*, Big Game*, Tudor Minstrel*, El Gran Senor*, Entrepreneur*

We will find out after the race what was the best trial.

diomed · 31-05-2018 5:50pm

I did point out that the 10.1f AWD for Deep Impact on the RP website was also from a very small number of low grade winners in GB.
I went further and examined the winning distances of 350 runners sired by Deep Impact.
AWD is wins as a 3yo or older.
Many of the 350 had no wins, a handful only had wins as a 2yo.

201 wins 0,4,14,50,44,46,13,28,0,0,2,0,0,0,0,0 (5f to 20f left to right)
Deep Impact progeny AWD 9.39 (my calculation).

Of course my selection may not be representative of his crops.
Gentildonna had 5 of the 28 wins at 12f.
Satano Diamond had the 2 wins at 15f.

226 wins form 1815 runs = 12.45%
241 horses had 0 wins
56 horses had 1 win
22 horses had 2 wins
16 horses had 3 wins
8 horses had 4 wins
3 horses had 5 wins
2 horses had 6 wins
1 horse had 9 wins (Gentildonna)
1 horse had 10 wins (A Shin Hinari)

I find the numbers a little surprising.
241 horses with 0 wins looks wrong. My guees is most of their racing record is missing.
The Racing Post Deep Impact runners might be those who ran outside Japan, or competed in top Japanese races against Gentildonna, A Shin Hikari, and other top runners.
In the data are 205 runners with RPR 100+

diomed · 31-05-2018 6:11pm

1) Young Rascal
2) Dee Ex Bee
3) Kew Gardens
4) Zabriskie
5) Saxon Warrior
6) Delano Roosevelt

The Racing Post racecard Predictor result

tryfix · 31-05-2018 8:03pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Nothing wrong with being out the back. Last 10 winners comments in running:

2017: Held up off the pace in rear
2016: Held up in mid-division
2015: Keen early held up
2014: Held up in mid-division
2013: Held up towards rear
2012: Steadied start, held up in last trio
2011: Held up last
2010: Held up in mid-division
2009: Took keen hold early, handy in main group (this was STS, he was the last winner anything like prominent)
2008: Pulled hard, held up towards rear

There's zero evidence that being handy is important in the derby, if Ryan does have him out the back he's only learning from experience.

Ryan got trapped behind a wall of horses in rear when he was ready to make his run on US Army Ranger ( 16th out of 16 into the straight ), he eventually got out and made up a huge amount of ground but the huge effort he expended in getting to Harzand ( 8th out 16 in the straight ) meant he hadn't enough energy left to pass him.

There's a huge difference between being in the last three rounding Tattenham Corner and in being held up in midfield from where you can make steady progress.

kiers47 · 31-05-2018 8:38pm

Jesus I don't think you can blame Moore for US Army Ranger. He was an absolute rogue.
He was also pretty slow to stride and ran like he hated the track for the first mile.

It's hard to say he isn't the best jockey riding in the race. Anyone who thinks otherwise is pretty foolish imo.
All jockeys are going to make mistakes here and there that's just the nature of the game.

tryfix · 31-05-2018 10:48pm

kiers47 wrote: »

Jesus I don't think you can blame Moore for US Army Ranger. He was an absolute rogue.
He was also pretty slow to stride and ran like he hated the track for the first mile.

It's hard to say he isn't the best jockey riding in the race. Anyone who thinks otherwise is pretty foolish imo.
All jockeys are going to make mistakes here and there that's just the nature of the game.

I'll admit 100% that US Army Ranger is now a rogue, maybe the Derby soured him. Moore tried to launch his challenge earlier, because he couldn't smuggle the horse into a better position to launch his challenge very likely cost the horse the 1 1/2L he lost the race by. Not even the great Dancing Brave could come from last to first and US Army Ranger and Harzand were no Dancing Braves.

Ryan's the physically strongest jockey in the race, there's no one I'd prefer to have in a head to head battle over the last furlong.

Tactically, he's not an an assassin, he's well able to find trouble in running.

longshotvalue · 31-05-2018 10:57pm

Speaking of Jockeys. I watched a few Derby youtube collections, at its amazing how often Lester was in the exact right position no matter what. In fairness he was usually on the best horse.

diomed · 01-06-2018 11:19am

Previously I wrote about the hidden draw bias at Epsom.
Look at my post #56 above check out positions 10,11,12.
This bias has changed since 2011 due to a different method of filling the stalls, and of positioning the stalls on the course.

tryfix · 01-06-2018 9:33pm

I popped into the bookies on the way home today and had a saver on Masar @ 18/1. I can't believe his price, maybe he's not working well at home?

He stuck to his guns well in third in the Guineas, he's bred to stay which might explain why he struggled in the Guineas and he has the golden number 10 draw which means that he can get a good early position which is a huge advantage this week at Epsom. Wild Illusion showed that the stable is in reasonable form.

kiers47 · 01-06-2018 10:11pm

The Pentagon was the plan since last year for me. The trials and early season haven't really gone his way but will have a small win bet on him but will be hoping the Saxon does the job.

Kauto · 01-06-2018 11:19pm

tryfix wrote: »

I popped into the bookies on the way home today and had a saver on Masar @ 18/1. I can't believe his price, maybe he's not working well at home?

He stuck to his guns well in third in the Guineas, he's bred to stay which might explain why he struggled in the Guineas and he has the golden number 10 draw which means that he can get a good early position which is a huge advantage this week at Epsom. Wild Illusion showed that the stable is in reasonable form.

Masar has no chance. Should be 50/1. Was keen in Newmarket last time and as with the majority of the boys in blue horses they go backwards after a start or two. Be amazed if this beats more than 1 or 2 home.

piplip87 · 02-06-2018 12:52am

Ew on the Pentagon for me. 33/1 is a serious price would expect 16s by the off.

zimmermania · 02-06-2018 1:49am

YOUNG RASCAL ew might be the answer,should stay and if the race becomes a real stamina test that will count and we may not have seen the best of him yet.

Looks a bit of value at 10/1 but as always in these races Aidan OBrien is to be feared as he leaves little to chance and tactic are worked out with military precision.

NinetyTwoTeam · 02-06-2018 2:29am

i think with Forever Together winning the Oaks, Wings of Eagles winning last year and of course, the much higher risk involved with an odds on is why so many are tipping up the 2nd and 3rd strings of AOB.

odds on favs lose all the time, but when the big big money prizes are there that is THE time to back the best horse from the best trainer.

saxon warrior is a lock IMO.

and if he happens to lose, it won't be to a stablemate, I'm quite confident of that. the Pentagon and Kew Gardens don't have anything like his turn of foot. neither of their last runs impressed me at all, they looked quite ordinary. saxons did impress me, he powered to the line so convincingly and just looked like a special animal. no way saxon finishes behind either of those 2.

i got evens yesterday and I'm happy with that rain or no rain. he should still be 4/6 like he was but between the knowledgeable punters being wary of the ground (a legit concern) and the casual punters who only bet two races a year shuddering at anything short priced its still a pretty backable 5/6 generally.

don't bother with the big priced AOB horses for win only purposes. it's throwing money away. the winner is at the top of the market. Haggas's horse has a squeak, he's been winning a lot of races lately, tho it's his fillies that have been especially dominant.

the ground would have to be bottomless to bring saxon down to the level of the rest of the field. hardly anything else even interests me other than like i said the WH horse or perhaps Roaring Lion but Saxon has beat him already and he definitely didn't want the rain. but those would be my E/W or bet without the fav picks.

Gringo180 · 02-06-2018 6:27am

Jockey booking on The Pentagon is a huge negative for me.

Mgoraf · 02-06-2018 8:49am

Hazapour and roaring lion are complete non stayers. Think they're terrible prices.

Fancy Delano Roosevelt to run into a place have an ew saver on him

Gringo180 · 02-06-2018 9:25am

Zero chance Saxon Warriors best trip will be 1m4f. Honestly cant see him staying.

tinpib · 02-06-2018 9:29am

Got a free bet on Bet365 for the Derby so went with Hazapour at 11/1. For the qualifying bet I went for O'Meara's Lincoln Rocks in the 235pm that has got some support.

edit: just to add in some logic, ridiculous price on Saxon Warrior. I like to see horses that appear to be aimed at the race and that show big improvement from 2 to 3. Hazapour fits that bill, like Forever Together yesterday in the Oaks.

Like the price on Masar too, but seems to have done a lot of travelling and racing already.

TheMilkyPirate · 02-06-2018 9:37am

Mgoraf wrote: »

Hazapour complete non stayer. Think they're terrible prices.

Bizzare statement.

Have Saxon warrior in a double but have backed Hazapour in a single, Unlike Mgoraf I think this trip is sure to bring about improvement.

Mgoraf · 02-06-2018 9:59am

Not really. Don't think shamradal has ever had a group 1 winner over 12f in the uk.

TheMilkyPirate · 02-06-2018 10:43am

Mgoraf wrote: »

Not really. Don't think shamradal has ever had a group 1 winner over 12f in the uk.

You would be right, but he has sired a 2m chaser!

More seriously Ihtimal was placed and stayed well in taghroodas Oaks, I also remember Dariyan being close up in a few top class 12f races so the potential is there. Certainly not a complete non stayer.

Juwwi · 02-06-2018 10:52am

Have the derby runners ever come stand side like they did in the oaks yesterday ? l cant remember a derby field that did myself .

Epsom Derby 2018

Comments