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Epsom Derby 2018

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  • 07-05-2018 9:20pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 976 ✭✭✭


    With the Guineas now out of the way, attention turns to Epsom on June 02nd for the Derby.
    Its the Guineas winner Saxon Warrior who is general Evens favourite. Aidan O'Brien has 25 entries for the big race, most of them not up to winning it, but interesting colts that he will have contend the trials are The Pentagon, Nelson and Kenya. Im a fan of Nelson. He's out of Moonstone, an Irish Oaks winner, so stamina is in the breeding. I dont think he got the credit of his win in the 2yo Group 3 at Champions Day at Leopardstown (a race won by Australia back in 2013) and he could be Frankel's first Classic winner. He's entered in the Lingfield Derby trial and the Dante and I'd expect him to shorten after he wins whichever one he turns up in.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    With the Guineas now out of the way, attention turns to Epsom on June 02nd for the Derby.
    Its the Guineas winner Saxon Warrior who is general Evens favourite. Aidan O'Brien has 25 entries for the big race, most of them not up to winning it, but interesting colts that he will have contend the trials are The Pentagon, Nelson and Kenya. Im a fan of Nelson. He's out of Moonstone, an Irish Oaks winner, so stamina is in the breeding. I dont think he got the credit of his win in the 2yo Group 3 at Champions Day at Leopardstown (a race won by Australia back in 2013) and he could be Frankel's first Classic winner. He's entered in the Lingfield Derby trial and the Dante and I'd expect him to shorten after he wins whichever one he turns up in.

    Saxon Warrior is nailed on.

    If something beats him or he fails to turn up then Nelson might be an able substitute. He has far more going for him than his 3/4 brother US Army Ranger had going into the Derby. I'm not so sure that they'll run him at Epsom. Last year I think that if the race had gone ahead he would have won the French Gp1 2yo race that was cancelled due to striking. I see him as an Irish Derby or St Leger horse but Saxon Warrior might end up going there as well. Maybe Nelson will head off to France for the French Derby over 10f.


    It's too early yet to be figuring out who's going to improve into Derby contention. Chester this week and the Dante at York should throw up some worthy competition for SW. Nelson's trial win was an early season trial on soft ground, I was quite taken by the 2nd there Delano Roosevelt.

    Backing Galileo or Frankel horses to win the Derby is poor value, they are usually too short-priced just because they're by Galileo or Frankel. Sires like Camelot, Nathaniel and Intello could easily supply another shock winner of the Derby.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    Impressive 2000 Guineas winners have failed in the Derby with regularity.

    In 2012 5/4f Dawn Approach finished last.
    In 1998 the 1000 Guineas winner 11/4f Cape Verdi was 9th, and the 2000 Guineas winner 11/2 King Of Kings finished 15th and last.
    In 1995 2000 Guineas winner 11/8f Pennekamp was 11th of 15.
    In 1992 2000 Guineas winner 13/2f Rodrigo De Triano finished 9th of 18.

    I think Saxon Warrior will not fail for lack of stamina, but we won't know until the race.
    What might go against him is his large size.
    The 140 foot Epsom hill might be difficult to climb for a big unit, and then he might not come down the hill easily.
    He might not handle the severe camber in the straight.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    In 2003 2000 Guineas winner 11/4f Refuse To Bend finished 13th of 20.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    Trivia
    Three English Derby favourites fell in the race.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    Not so good English Derby favourites (finished 10th+)

    Year ... Horse ............... Finish ... Runners
    1951 ... Ki Ming ............... 24 ......... 33
    1953 ... Premonition ......... 25 ........ 27
    1954 ... Ferriol ................. 11 ........ 22
    1958 ... Wallaby ............... 19 ........ 20
    1961 ... Moutiers .............. 25 ........ 28
    1978 ... Inkerman ............. 21 ........ 25
    1990 ... Razeen ................ 14 ........ 18
    1993 ... Tenby .................. 10 ........ 16
    1995 ... Pennekamp ........... 11 ........ 15
    2003 ... Refuse To Bend .... 13 ........ 20
    2013 ... Dawn Approach ..... 12 ........ 12


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    I mentioned it in the Guineas thread but im still not convinced about the Derby for Saxon Warrior. I could well be wrong obviously but its not like the dam's profile screams stamina. The sire in Deep Impact obviously has a big stamina influence on his progeny.
    But just from racing alone and seeing the horse a couple of times last year im convinced that his best distance will be 1mile-10f

    Clearly he is extremely talented and may get away with the derby trip regardless. However there is quite a number of coolmore colts who are waiting in the wings as potential derby candidates. Top of my list still The Pentagon.

    The Leger is absolute madness in my eyes i really hope they don't send him there.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    diomed wrote: »
    Trivia
    Three English Derby favourites fell in the race.

    Wouldnt be much good with racing history pre 1990 but wasnt there a big incident in Larkspur's derby. Hethersett came down in the incident. Thats the only one i can think of.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    diomed wrote: »
    Impressive 2000 Guineas winners have failed in the Derby with regularity.

    In 2012 5/4f Dawn Approach finished last.
    In 1998 the 1000 Guineas winner 11/4f Cape Verdi was 9th, and the 2000 Guineas winner 11/2 King Of Kings finished 15th and last.
    In 1995 2000 Guineas winner 11/8f Pennekamp was 11th of 15.
    In 1992 2000 Guineas winner 13/2f Rodrigo De Triano finished 9th of 18.

    I think Saxon Warrior will not fail for lack of stamina, but we won't know until the race.
    What might go against him is his large size.
    The 140 foot Epsom hill might be difficult to climb for a big unit, and then he might not come down the hill easily.
    He might not handle the severe camber in the straight.


    Equally there are plenty of Guineas winners who went on to do the double and crucially in this case there are plenty of Racing Post Trophy winners who took the Derby in style in the following year. O'Brien in particular tends to use the Guineas as a prep for the Derby when he has a Racing Post Trophy winner that's in with a good chance of winning the Guineas.

    Dawn Approach had a good DI 1.00 for the Derby but his potential lack of staying power ( genetics test ) was flagged up by his trainer well before the Derby. His dam had a DI of 2.29 and never raced beyond a mile. Also he blew up in the race so we'll never know far he might have stayed. He also ran at 5f as a 2yo

    Cape Verdi DI 060 was a filly ( don't think any have ever won the Derby ) who should have stayed all day with no stamina limitations on the Dam side. She was hampered in the race and never recovered her form.

    King Of Kings with a DI 1.78 was going to struggle to get the Derby trip, he was condemned to fail at the trip by being out of a speed bred Habitat mare Zummerudd who had an insanely speedy DI of 12.14 :eek:

    Refuse To Bend DI 1.05 had a fairly good DI for the Derby trip ( he did win a Coral Eclipse Gp 1 over a stiff 10f which was more in line with his stamina limitations ) but he had staying problems on the US bred dam side DI 2.20.

    Pennekamp should have stayed all day with a DI of 0.54 but he finished lame in the Derby and never raced again. We'll never know if he was up to winning a Derby.

    Rodrigo Dr Triano with a of DI 3.67 was unlikely to get the Derby trip, that he was out of a Habitat line mare with a DI of 27.00 :pac: meant that there was nothing on the dam side to help him stay.



    Saxon Warrior DI 0.85 is a different beast to all those bar maybe Pennekamp. He never ran at less than 8f as a 2yo. He won the RPT as a 2yo which is a race that any of its winners who have trained on at 3 are perfect Derby winning material. Camelot, Motivator, Authorised, High Chaparral. Kingston Hill finished 2nd to Australia, Brian Boru and St Nicholas Abbey missed the Derby but both both subsequently showed enough ability to suggest they could have the Derby.



    Saxon Warrior's dam Maybe has a DI of 0.91, there's a potential lack of stamina in the grand dam Sumora DI 3.00 a 5f runner but there's still no lacking in stamina in that side of the family, Dr Devious by sprinter Ahanoora won the Derby, Dancing Rain by Danehill Dancer won the Oaks.

    Maybe herself finished a staying on 5th in the Oaks.

    "Steadied start, took keen hold, held up in touch in rear, hampered over 8f out, 11th straight, switched right and effort 3f out, headway and driven to chase leading quartet over 1f out, kept on final furlong, not pace to challenge "


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    tryfix wrote: »
    Equally there are plenty of Guineas winners who went on to do the double and crucially in this case there are plenty of Racing Post Trophy winners who took the Derby in style in the following year. O'Brien in particular tends to use the Guineas as a prep for the Derby when he has a Racing Post Trophy winner that's in with a good chance of winning the Guineas.

    Dawn Approach had a good DI 1.00 for the Derby but his potential lack of staying power ( genetics test ) was flagged up by his trainer well before the Derby. His dam had a DI of 2.29 and never raced beyond a mile. Also he blew up in the race so we'll never know far he might have stayed. He also ran at 5f as a 2yo

    Cape Verdi DI 060 was a filly ( don't think any have ever won the Derby ) who should have stayed all day with no stamina limitations on the Dam side. She was hampered in the race and never recovered her form.

    King Of Kings with a DI 1.78 was going to struggle to get the Derby trip, he was condemned to fail at the trip by being out of a speed bred Habitat mare Zummerudd who had an insanely speedy DI of 12.14 :eek:

    Refuse To Bend DI 1.05 had a fairly good DI for the Derby trip ( he did win a Coral Eclipse Gp 1 over a stiff 10f which was more in line with his stamina limitations ) but he had staying problems on the US bred dam side DI 2.20.

    Pennekamp should have stayed all day with a DI of 0.54 but he finished lame in the Derby and never raced again. We'll never know if he was up to winning a Derby.

    Rodrigo Dr Triano with a of DI 3.67 was unlikely to get the Derby trip, that he was out of a Habitat line mare with a DI of 27.00 :pac: meant that there was nothing on the dam side to help him stay.



    Saxon Warrior DI 0.85 is a different beast to all those bar maybe Pennekamp. He never ran at less than 8f as a 2yo. He won the RPT as a 2yo which is a race that any of its winners who have trained on at 3 are perfect Derby winning material. Camelot, Motivator, Authorised, High Chaparral. Kingston Hill finished 2nd to Australia, Brian Boru and St Nicholas Abbey missed the Derby but both both subsequently showed enough ability to suggest they could have the Derby.



    Saxon Warrior's dam Maybe has a DI of 0.91, there's a potential lack of stamina in the grand dam Sumora DI 3.00 a 5f runner but there's still no lacking in stamina in that side of the family, Dr Devious by sprinter Ahanoora won the Derby, Dancing Rain by Danehill Dancer won the Oaks.

    Maybe herself finished a staying on 5th in the Oaks.

    "Steadied start, took keen hold, held up in touch in rear, hampered over 8f out, 11th straight, switched right and effort 3f out, headway and driven to chase leading quartet over 1f out, kept on final furlong, not pace to challenge "

    Good info there tryfix. You were hardly on track on Saturday? Its hard to tell from the tv but im even more convinced now that he is built like a miler. I seen him a couple of times last year on debut and second time up and his conformation just doesnt scream stamina.

    You are probably right though and hopefully he will improve again.

    Also on Maybe's fast finishing 5th. I hate when people say pre-race that a race is the worst in years. But that Oaks is probably the worst Oaks of the last 20 years. Take out the Fugue who was obviously a brilliant filly and not one filly won a race after that at any level. So im not sure i would be using that as proof that she stayed well.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    Just to go slightly off topic also. Pascal Bary had a nice looking colt win the G2 in Saint Cloud today. Won it nicely. Looks an ideal type for the Prix du Jockey Club.
    Study of Man. He does have an entry in Epsom but i havent seen any quotes on what the plan is. 33/1 could be a bit of a rick if he is going there. But probably unlikely.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,246 ✭✭✭Mgoraf


    Saxon warrior looked much stronger behind than he did up front which would suggest to me he isn't a miler kiers, although open to correction the speedier types tend to be much more built on the front end.

    All his best work in his races has been in the last furlong, imo he will be perfect for 10f but should stay 12f well.

    On his dam, looking at other in race comments as tryfix posted she was outpaced in allnof her races over a mile, I'd say shed have been a good 10f horse.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    kiers47 wrote: »
    Good info there tryfix. You were hardly on track on Saturday? Its hard to tell from the tv but im even more convinced now that he is built like a miler. I seen him a couple of times last year on debut and second time up and his conformation just doesnt scream stamina.

    You are probably right though and hopefully he will improve again.

    Also on Maybe's fast finishing 5th. I hate when people say pre-race that a race is the worst in years. But that Oaks is probably the worst Oaks of the last 20 years. Take out the Fugue who was obviously a brilliant filly and not one filly won a race after that at any level. So im not sure i would be using that as proof that she stayed well.

    I was watching from the comfort of my armchair and I get where you are coming from with built like a miler. He now has a big powerful arse to propel him quickly but he's also a long and big horse who would look like a proper stayer if he didn't have the big butt on him. Last year he travelled and stayed all day. In the Racing Post Trophy he crushed Roaring Lion by quickening again when Roaring Lion had quickened past him and was at ease crossing the line. That kind of running suggests stamina is not an issue for him and he was getting better the further he went in the Guineas, plus there was never a doubt that O'Brien was training him for the Derby.


    On Maybe, you are right about her Oaks run not proving anything. I think there is suspect stamina in Maybe but also she didn't really train on so she couldn't prove her stamina. A lot of the more speedily bred Galileos end up staying but they don't stay too well, they just plug on.

    As a dam though, Maybe has already upgraded the stamina of her own dam who herself is from à close up family who can outstay their own pedigrees in the best if company.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    kiers47 wrote: »
    Just to go slightly off topic also. Pascal Bary had a nice looking colt win the G2 in Saint Cloud today. Won it nicely. Looks an ideal type for the Prix du Jockey Club.
    Study of Man. He does have an entry in Epsom but i havent seen any quotes on what the plan is. 33/1 could be a bit of a rick if he is going there. But probably unlikely.

    He won well and just like Saxon Warrior he too is a son of Deep Impact with an even speedier dam side. He's got a DI of 1.35 and he's out of a Storm Cat daughter of the mighty Miesque.

    He'll make a cracking sire.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    tryfix wrote: »
    I was watching from the comfort of my armchair and I get where you are coming from with built like a miler. He now has a big powerful arse to propel him quickly but he's also a long and big horse who would look like a proper stayer if he didn't have the big butt on him. Last year he travelled and stayed all day. In the Racing Post Trophy he crushed Roaring Lion by quickening again when Roaring Lion had quickened past him and was at ease crossing the line. That kind of running suggests stamina is not an issue for him and he was getting better the further he went in the Guineas, plus there was never a doubt that O'Brien was training him for the Derby.


    On Maybe, you are right about her Oaks run not proving anything. I think there is suspect stamina in Maybe but also she didn't really train on so she couldn't prove her stamina. A lot of the more speedily bred Galileos end up staying but they don't stay too well, they just plug on.

    As a dam though, Maybe has already upgraded the stamina of her own dam who herself is from à close up family who can outstay their own pedigrees in the best if company.

    All fair points.
    Also dont get my wrong im not trying to make light of the horse. If anyone reads the Guineas thread will know im a big fan. :D
    I just think we dont know the full Derby picture yet and there are people on twitter and in the media more or less giving him the triple crown already. haha

    His price for the derby is just gone now and i think while the most likely winner you couldnt possibly be backing him at even money or odds on.

    That being said I do hope he wins the derby. Although if he doesnt then id hope The Pentagon could progress to take a bit of beating.

    The triple crown sh*te i dont really care about. Not really a fan of the Leger. Id rather they ran him in the Irish Champions stakes the same weekend as it is a much better race. And i will get to have a look at him.:pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    https://youtu.be/V9K3xyl5VNY

    Good video this from Epsom YouTube account.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    I put a bet on yesterday's Lingfield Derby Trial winner Knight To Behold for the English Derby, €100 at 20s.
    I have my own ideas about what I like to see in pedigrees, and he does not have that. But his pedigree is stacked with Derby horses.

    His sire, Sea The Stars, won the English Derby.
    His damsire, Sadler's Wells, has produced English Derby winners.

    If you look at the sires of the dams along the dam line of Knight To Behold:
    Dancing Brave (sire of 1st dam), narrowly failed in the Derby, won the King George and the Arc.
    Dancing Brave, although exported to Japan, was sire of English Derby winner, Commander In Chief, and Irish Oaks winner Wemyss Bight.
    Dancer's Image (sire of 2nd dam), first past the post in the Kentucky Derby but failed a drug test. This sire is more a speed influence imo.
    Val De Loir (sire of 3rd dam), won the French Derby when it was 2400 metres (~12f).
    Val De Loir was also damsire of Derby winner, Shergar, and Oaks winner Sun Princess.
    Charlottesville (sire of 4th dam), won the French Derby when it was 2400 metres (~12f), and the Grand Prix de Paris (3000 metres).

    Knight To Behold's second dam, Ballerina, produced English St Leger (14.5f) winner Millenary.
    Knight To Behold's fourth dam Sunny Valley produced two Group 1 winners, Sun Princess (English Oaks 12f) and Saddlers' Hall (Coronation Cup 12f).

    This horse will stay the 12f English Derby, the question is will he have the speed.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    Saxon Warrior is generally 4/5 for the Derby.
    That is the price for something leading at the 2f pole and going well.
    He might win but bookmakers will sell that all day, and all year.

    Last Saturday I overheard a punter saying after he bet on the favourite, Jaega, in the Blue Wind Stakes that the bookmaker said "I love selling a 2/1 shot at evens".
    It came second.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    diomed wrote: »
    Saxon Warrior is generally 4/5 for the Derby.
    That is the price for something leading at the 2f pole and going well.
    He might win but bookmakers will sell that all day, and all year.

    Last Saturday I overheard a punter saying after he bet on the favourite, Jaega, in the Blue Wind Stakes that the bookmaker said "I love selling a 2/1 shot at evens".
    It came second.

    Yes definitely extremely short. Have expressed this concern myself and i love the horse.

    In recent years or well 10years ago. lol
    I remember Authorized being about an evens or 11/10 shot after pissing in in the Dante. He drifted slightly on the day from what i remember but he was much the best. Antepost has been fairly dead for a while now.
    Id be surprised if you couldnt get a fair bit of odds against on the day.

    The Derby is still the Derby at the end of the day.


  • Registered Users Posts: 265 ✭✭antietam


    Saxon Warrior [based on facts]is at least 10 lbs better than anything I've seen so far and IMO a steering job. Listening to John Gosden he reiterated my opinion in some way after his Roaring Lion won a shocking Dante.Anybody making cases for horses to beat him are clutching at very tenuous straws in a very serious way.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Well that was a fascinating Dante. Roaring Lion has an engine, his burst of speed and his being full of running after the line promise more than the bare bones of the performance do.

    At first his run was jaw-dropping, then the replay of his drift across the track made you think that he's maybe a bit of a rogue which is more than a bit unfair to him. York is also a track where wide margin wins have to be taken with a grain of salt ( Tapestry's thrashing of Tahgrooda springs to mind.

    On the form book Roaring Lion was more than entitled to give that field of Listed Class horses a 7lb beating. He did however manage to extend his 2yo margin of victory over Mildenberg from 2L to 4 1/2L . The form of this race ties in with the Irish Derby Trials and Nelson, The Pentagon, Delano Roosevelt , Hazapour etc.

    Roaring Lion's form this year looks like a repeat of The Grey Gatsby. Beaten in the Craven, beaten in the Guineas and then a great if not entirely convincing effort in The Dante followed by a French Derby win ( which would seem to be an appropriate target for Roaring Lion ) . An end of year settle all clash in the Irish Champion Stakes would be spectacular if Saxon Warrior doesn't end up at Doncaster.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    tryfix wrote: »
    Well that was a fascinating Dante. Roaring Lion has an engine, his burst of speed and his being full of running after the line promise more than the bare bones of the performance do.

    At first his run was jaw-dropping, then the replay of his drift across the track made you think that he's maybe a bit of a rogue which is more than a bit unfair to him. York is also a track where wide margin wins have to be taken with a grain of salt ( Tapestry's thrashing of Tahgrooda springs to mind.

    On the form book Roaring Lion was more than entitled to give that field of Listed Class horses a 7lb beating. He did however manage to extend his 2yo margin of victory over Mildenberg from 2L to 4 1/2L . The form of this race ties in with the Irish Derby Trials and Nelson, The Pentagon, Delano Roosevelt , Hazapour etc.

    Roaring Lion's form this year looks like a repeat of The Grey Gatsby. Beaten in the Craven, beaten in the Guineas and then a great if not entirely convincing effort in The Dante followed by a French Derby win ( which would seem to be an appropriate target for Roaring Lion ) . An end of year settle all clash in the Irish Champion Stakes would be spectacular if Saxon Warrior doesn't end up at Doncaster.

    That clash in the Irish Champion sounds the stuff of dreams. You'd imagine there would be another couple of big contenders too although Saxon is almost a certainty for Doncaster if he wins the derby.
    Hopefully they take a similar route to Camelot and we get the opportunity to see him strut his stuff in the Curragh. I don't plan on travelling across the pond for anything this year and am mad for a look at him.
    He is nailed on to be retired after this year at the moment you'd imagine.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    kiers47 wrote: »
    That clash in the Irish Champion sounds the stuff of dreams. You'd imagine there would be another couple of big contenders too although Saxon is almost a certainty for Doncaster if he wins the derby.
    Hopefully they take a similar route to Camelot and we get the opportunity to see him strut his stuff in the Curragh. I don't plan on travelling across the pond for anything this year and am mad for a look at him.
    He is nailed on to be retired after this year at the moment you'd imagine.
    If things don't go to plan for Saxon Warrior at Epsom they could meet before that in the Juddmonte, maybe even in the Eclipse but that's a long shot.

    Have to say that winning the Leger won't do much for his stud career in comparison to taking a top 10f race.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    tryfix wrote: »
    If things don't go to plan for Saxon Warrior at Epsom they could meet before that in the Juddmonte, maybe even in the Eclipse but that's a long shot.

    Have to say that winning the Leger won't do much for his stud career in comparison to taking a top 10f race.

    Yes I fully agree. Although in saying that the powers that be at Coolmore are exceptionally good at marketing these things.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    I always like to back outsiders in the big races so i look for weaknesses in the favourite, or possible/imagined weaknesses.

    Yesterday I found my antepost English classics bet - 4 trebles €20 each.
    2000 Saxon Warrior 6/1; 1000 Clemmie 3/1; Oaks September 8/1; Derby Roaring Lion 14/1.
    At that time I thought Saxon Warrior was not a Derby type although I can not remember why.

    I want to find a weakness in Saxon Warrior and if there is one it will be staying the Epsom 12f, possibly because that is the usual weakness of favourites.

    Saxon Warrior won over 8f three times as a 2yo so no weakness there, although as a 26th January foal he may have had a maturity advantage.
    He won the 2000 Guineas handily but not in a spreadeagling fashion. There were many horses within a few lengths at the finish.

    Deep Impact (Sunday Silence - Wind In Her Hair), his sire, is the highest earning sire in the world.
    His first covering year was 2007, progeny earnings to date Yen 42,774,416,000 (EUR 327,148,574) (1,099 starters) with an AEI 3.71.
    Amazing average money of EUR 297,678 a starter (HRI please take notes :) ).
    The prizemoney looks good, but I have seen Jananese races with EUR 240,000 for 5th place.

    Deep Impact finished 3rd on 7 runners in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 12f good, later disqualified for a prohibited substance.
    Runs: 14 times, winning 12, 1 2nd, 1 dsq.
    Distances: 10f x 5; 11f x 1; 12f x 5; 15f x 2; 16f x 1
    Ground: Firm x 11; good x 3

    I wonder about the quality of the staying races he won in Japan at 15f and 16f.
    Japanese St Leger 15f: the first four horses were sired by Sunday Silence.
    Tenno Sho Spring 16f: the first three horses were sired by Sunday Silence.

    His middle distance races:
    12f firm in 2:23.30
    12.5f in 2:31.90
    12f (Arc 3rd) in 2:26.30
    12f in 2:25.10
    12.5f in 2:31.90
    These imo are not really staying races, run on pancake flat tracks on very firm ground.
    His son, Saxon Warrior, runs in the English Derby where a typical winning time is about 2:35, about 10/12 seconds slower, due to the 140 foot Epsom hill.

    Deep Impact's sire, Sunday Silence won the Kentucky Derby 10f, and the Preakness Stakes 10f, but was beaten 8l by Easy Goer in the Belmont Stakes 12f on fast ground in a fast time.
    Deep Impact's dam, Wind In Her Hair, was 2nd in the English Oaks to Balanchine, and 4th in the Irish Oaks. She ran 12f or longer seven times and won once at 12f in Germany (Group 1, easily).

    Clutching at more straws let's look at the dam of Saxon Warrior, Maybe.
    Runs: 9 times, winning 5, 1 3rd (wins 6f x 1; 7f x 4; all as a 2yo).
    Distances: 6f x 1; 7f x 4; 8f x 3; 12f x 1
    The 12f run was a 5th in the English Oaks.

    My slight reservations about Saxon Warrior are:
    a sire with doubtful staying credentials
    a dam who only won as a 2yo

    I might be back in June to eat humble pie.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    kiers47 wrote: »
    Yes I fully agree. Although in saying that the powers that be at Coolmore are exceptionally good at marketing these things.

    To be fair his dad won over 2m and it doesn't seem to be doing his stud career any harm. Perhaps it's time for european breeders to be more open minded about these things.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    Kew Gardens, 2nd in Lingfield Derby Trial, 1m 3.5f
    In the Irish Field it says (twice) that he lost a shoe in the race.
    The video shows him taking two strange steps about 1 1/2f from the finish.
    He will (?) be one of four Aidan O'Brien Derby entries.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    Al Muffrih - William Haggas
    Dee Ex Bee - Mark Johnston
    Delano Roosevelt - A P O'Brien
    Hazapour - D K Weld
    Kew Gardens - A P O'Brien
    Knight To Behold - Harry Dunlop
    Masar - Charlie Appleby
    Nelson - A P O'Brien
    Roaring Lion - John Gosden
    Rostropovich - A P O'Brien
    Saxon Warrior - A P O'Brien
    Sevenna Star - John Gosden
    Study Of Man - P Bary
    The Pentagon - A P O'Brien
    Young Rascal - William Haggas
    Zabriskie - A P O'Brien


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,267 ✭✭✭del roy


    If you think you have a couple of Derby horses, you have none.


  • Registered Users Posts: 449 ✭✭Pinesky


    del roy wrote: »
    If you think you have a couple of Derby horses, you have none.
    Unless you're Aidan O'Brien


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,267 ✭✭✭del roy


    Pinesky wrote: »
    Unless you're Aidan O'Brien


    He is just making the field bigger and surely a small field with two pace makers would be a easier situation for Saxion Warrior.


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