Epsom Derby 2018

supremenovice

With the Guineas now out of the way, attention turns to Epsom on June 02nd for the Derby.
Its the Guineas winner Saxon Warrior who is general Evens favourite. Aidan O'Brien has 25 entries for the big race, most of them not up to winning it, but interesting colts that he will have contend the trials are The Pentagon, Nelson and Kenya. Im a fan of Nelson. He's out of Moonstone, an Irish Oaks winner, so stamina is in the breeding. I dont think he got the credit of his win in the 2yo Group 3 at Champions Day at Leopardstown (a race won by Australia back in 2013) and he could be Frankel's first Classic winner. He's entered in the Lingfield Derby trial and the Dante and I'd expect him to shorten after he wins whichever one he turns up in.

tryfix

supremenovice wrote: »

With the Guineas now out of the way, attention turns to Epsom on June 02nd for the Derby.
Its the Guineas winner Saxon Warrior who is general Evens favourite. Aidan O'Brien has 25 entries for the big race, most of them not up to winning it, but interesting colts that he will have contend the trials are The Pentagon, Nelson and Kenya. Im a fan of Nelson. He's out of Moonstone, an Irish Oaks winner, so stamina is in the breeding. I dont think he got the credit of his win in the 2yo Group 3 at Champions Day at Leopardstown (a race won by Australia back in 2013) and he could be Frankel's first Classic winner. He's entered in the Lingfield Derby trial and the Dante and I'd expect him to shorten after he wins whichever one he turns up in.

Saxon Warrior is nailed on.

If something beats him or he fails to turn up then Nelson might be an able substitute. He has far more going for him than his 3/4 brother US Army Ranger had going into the Derby. I'm not so sure that they'll run him at Epsom. Last year I think that if the race had gone ahead he would have won the French Gp1 2yo race that was cancelled due to striking. I see him as an Irish Derby or St Leger horse but Saxon Warrior might end up going there as well. Maybe Nelson will head off to France for the French Derby over 10f.


It's too early yet to be figuring out who's going to improve into Derby contention. Chester this week and the Dante at York should throw up some worthy competition for SW. Nelson's trial win was an early season trial on soft ground, I was quite taken by the 2nd there Delano Roosevelt.

Backing Galileo or Frankel horses to win the Derby is poor value, they are usually too short-priced just because they're by Galileo or Frankel. Sires like Camelot, Nathaniel and Intello could easily supply another shock winner of the Derby.

diomed

Impressive 2000 Guineas winners have failed in the Derby with regularity.

In 2012 5/4f Dawn Approach finished last.
In 1998 the 1000 Guineas winner 11/4f Cape Verdi was 9th, and the 2000 Guineas winner 11/2 King Of Kings finished 15th and last.
In 1995 2000 Guineas winner 11/8f Pennekamp was 11th of 15.
In 1992 2000 Guineas winner 13/2f Rodrigo De Triano finished 9th of 18.

I think Saxon Warrior will not fail for lack of stamina, but we won't know until the race.
What might go against him is his large size.
The 140 foot Epsom hill might be difficult to climb for a big unit, and then he might not come down the hill easily.
He might not handle the severe camber in the straight.

diomed

In 2003 2000 Guineas winner 11/4f Refuse To Bend finished 13th of 20.

diomed

Trivia
Three English Derby favourites fell in the race.

diomed

Not so good English Derby favourites (finished 10th+)

Year ... Horse ............... Finish ... Runners
1951 ... Ki Ming ............... 24 ......... 33
1953 ... Premonition ......... 25 ........ 27
1954 ... Ferriol ................. 11 ........ 22
1958 ... Wallaby ............... 19 ........ 20
1961 ... Moutiers .............. 25 ........ 28
1978 ... Inkerman ............. 21 ........ 25
1990 ... Razeen ................ 14 ........ 18
1993 ... Tenby .................. 10 ........ 16
1995 ... Pennekamp ........... 11 ........ 15
2003 ... Refuse To Bend .... 13 ........ 20
2013 ... Dawn Approach ..... 12 ........ 12

kiers47

I mentioned it in the Guineas thread but im still not convinced about the Derby for Saxon Warrior. I could well be wrong obviously but its not like the dam's profile screams stamina. The sire in Deep Impact obviously has a big stamina influence on his progeny.
But just from racing alone and seeing the horse a couple of times last year im convinced that his best distance will be 1mile-10f

Clearly he is extremely talented and may get away with the derby trip regardless. However there is quite a number of coolmore colts who are waiting in the wings as potential derby candidates. Top of my list still The Pentagon.

The Leger is absolute madness in my eyes i really hope they don't send him there.

kiers47

diomed wrote: »

Trivia
Three English Derby favourites fell in the race.

Wouldnt be much good with racing history pre 1990 but wasnt there a big incident in Larkspur's derby. Hethersett came down in the incident. Thats the only one i can think of.

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

Impressive 2000 Guineas winners have failed in the Derby with regularity.

In 2012 5/4f Dawn Approach finished last.
In 1998 the 1000 Guineas winner 11/4f Cape Verdi was 9th, and the 2000 Guineas winner 11/2 King Of Kings finished 15th and last.
In 1995 2000 Guineas winner 11/8f Pennekamp was 11th of 15.
In 1992 2000 Guineas winner 13/2f Rodrigo De Triano finished 9th of 18.

I think Saxon Warrior will not fail for lack of stamina, but we won't know until the race.
What might go against him is his large size.
The 140 foot Epsom hill might be difficult to climb for a big unit, and then he might not come down the hill easily.
He might not handle the severe camber in the straight.

Equally there are plenty of Guineas winners who went on to do the double and crucially in this case there are plenty of Racing Post Trophy winners who took the Derby in style in the following year. O'Brien in particular tends to use the Guineas as a prep for the Derby when he has a Racing Post Trophy winner that's in with a good chance of winning the Guineas.

Dawn Approach had a good DI 1.00 for the Derby but his potential lack of staying power ( genetics test ) was flagged up by his trainer well before the Derby. His dam had a DI of 2.29 and never raced beyond a mile. Also he blew up in the race so we'll never know far he might have stayed. He also ran at 5f as a 2yo

Cape Verdi DI 060 was a filly ( don't think any have ever won the Derby ) who should have stayed all day with no stamina limitations on the Dam side. She was hampered in the race and never recovered her form.

King Of Kings with a DI 1.78 was going to struggle to get the Derby trip, he was condemned to fail at the trip by being out of a speed bred Habitat mare Zummerudd who had an insanely speedy DI of 12.14 :eek:

Refuse To Bend DI 1.05 had a fairly good DI for the Derby trip ( he did win a Coral Eclipse Gp 1 over a stiff 10f which was more in line with his stamina limitations ) but he had staying problems on the US bred dam side DI 2.20.

Pennekamp should have stayed all day with a DI of 0.54 but he finished lame in the Derby and never raced again. We'll never know if he was up to winning a Derby.

Rodrigo Dr Triano with a of DI 3.67 was unlikely to get the Derby trip, that he was out of a Habitat line mare with a DI of 27.00 :pac: meant that there was nothing on the dam side to help him stay.



Saxon Warrior DI 0.85 is a different beast to all those bar maybe Pennekamp. He never ran at less than 8f as a 2yo. He won the RPT as a 2yo which is a race that any of its winners who have trained on at 3 are perfect Derby winning material. Camelot, Motivator, Authorised, High Chaparral. Kingston Hill finished 2nd to Australia, Brian Boru and St Nicholas Abbey missed the Derby but both both subsequently showed enough ability to suggest they could have the Derby.



Saxon Warrior's dam Maybe has a DI of 0.91, there's a potential lack of stamina in the grand dam Sumora DI 3.00 a 5f runner but there's still no lacking in stamina in that side of the family, Dr Devious by sprinter Ahanoora won the Derby, Dancing Rain by Danehill Dancer won the Oaks.

Maybe herself finished a staying on 5th in the Oaks.

"Steadied start, took keen hold, held up in touch in rear, hampered over 8f out, 11th straight, switched right and effort 3f out, headway and driven to chase leading quartet over 1f out, kept on final furlong, not pace to challenge "

kiers47

tryfix wrote: »

Equally there are plenty of Guineas winners who went on to do the double and crucially in this case there are plenty of Racing Post Trophy winners who took the Derby in style in the following year. O'Brien in particular tends to use the Guineas as a prep for the Derby when he has a Racing Post Trophy winner that's in with a good chance of winning the Guineas.

Dawn Approach had a good DI 1.00 for the Derby but his potential lack of staying power ( genetics test ) was flagged up by his trainer well before the Derby. His dam had a DI of 2.29 and never raced beyond a mile. Also he blew up in the race so we'll never know far he might have stayed. He also ran at 5f as a 2yo

Cape Verdi DI 060 was a filly ( don't think any have ever won the Derby ) who should have stayed all day with no stamina limitations on the Dam side. She was hampered in the race and never recovered her form.

King Of Kings with a DI 1.78 was going to struggle to get the Derby trip, he was condemned to fail at the trip by being out of a speed bred Habitat mare Zummerudd who had an insanely speedy DI of 12.14 :eek:

Refuse To Bend DI 1.05 had a fairly good DI for the Derby trip ( he did win a Coral Eclipse Gp 1 over a stiff 10f which was more in line with his stamina limitations ) but he had staying problems on the US bred dam side DI 2.20.

Pennekamp should have stayed all day with a DI of 0.54 but he finished lame in the Derby and never raced again. We'll never know if he was up to winning a Derby.

Rodrigo Dr Triano with a of DI 3.67 was unlikely to get the Derby trip, that he was out of a Habitat line mare with a DI of 27.00 :pac: meant that there was nothing on the dam side to help him stay.



Saxon Warrior DI 0.85 is a different beast to all those bar maybe Pennekamp. He never ran at less than 8f as a 2yo. He won the RPT as a 2yo which is a race that any of its winners who have trained on at 3 are perfect Derby winning material. Camelot, Motivator, Authorised, High Chaparral. Kingston Hill finished 2nd to Australia, Brian Boru and St Nicholas Abbey missed the Derby but both both subsequently showed enough ability to suggest they could have the Derby.



Saxon Warrior's dam Maybe has a DI of 0.91, there's a potential lack of stamina in the grand dam Sumora DI 3.00 a 5f runner but there's still no lacking in stamina in that side of the family, Dr Devious by sprinter Ahanoora won the Derby, Dancing Rain by Danehill Dancer won the Oaks.

Maybe herself finished a staying on 5th in the Oaks.

"Steadied start, took keen hold, held up in touch in rear, hampered over 8f out, 11th straight, switched right and effort 3f out, headway and driven to chase leading quartet over 1f out, kept on final furlong, not pace to challenge "

Good info there tryfix. You were hardly on track on Saturday? Its hard to tell from the tv but im even more convinced now that he is built like a miler. I seen him a couple of times last year on debut and second time up and his conformation just doesnt scream stamina.

You are probably right though and hopefully he will improve again.

Also on Maybe's fast finishing 5th. I hate when people say pre-race that a race is the worst in years. But that Oaks is probably the worst Oaks of the last 20 years. Take out the Fugue who was obviously a brilliant filly and not one filly won a race after that at any level. So im not sure i would be using that as proof that she stayed well.

kiers47

Just to go slightly off topic also. Pascal Bary had a nice looking colt win the G2 in Saint Cloud today. Won it nicely. Looks an ideal type for the Prix du Jockey Club.
Study of Man. He does have an entry in Epsom but i havent seen any quotes on what the plan is. 33/1 could be a bit of a rick if he is going there. But probably unlikely.

Mgoraf

Saxon warrior looked much stronger behind than he did up front which would suggest to me he isn't a miler kiers, although open to correction the speedier types tend to be much more built on the front end.

All his best work in his races has been in the last furlong, imo he will be perfect for 10f but should stay 12f well.

On his dam, looking at other in race comments as tryfix posted she was outpaced in allnof her races over a mile, I'd say shed have been a good 10f horse.

tryfix

kiers47 wrote: »

Good info there tryfix. You were hardly on track on Saturday? Its hard to tell from the tv but im even more convinced now that he is built like a miler. I seen him a couple of times last year on debut and second time up and his conformation just doesnt scream stamina.

You are probably right though and hopefully he will improve again.

Also on Maybe's fast finishing 5th. I hate when people say pre-race that a race is the worst in years. But that Oaks is probably the worst Oaks of the last 20 years. Take out the Fugue who was obviously a brilliant filly and not one filly won a race after that at any level. So im not sure i would be using that as proof that she stayed well.

I was watching from the comfort of my armchair and I get where you are coming from with built like a miler. He now has a big powerful arse to propel him quickly but he's also a long and big horse who would look like a proper stayer if he didn't have the big butt on him. Last year he travelled and stayed all day. In the Racing Post Trophy he crushed Roaring Lion by quickening again when Roaring Lion had quickened past him and was at ease crossing the line. That kind of running suggests stamina is not an issue for him and he was getting better the further he went in the Guineas, plus there was never a doubt that O'Brien was training him for the Derby.


On Maybe, you are right about her Oaks run not proving anything. I think there is suspect stamina in Maybe but also she didn't really train on so she couldn't prove her stamina. A lot of the more speedily bred Galileos end up staying but they don't stay too well, they just plug on.

As a dam though, Maybe has already upgraded the stamina of her own dam who herself is from à close up family who can outstay their own pedigrees in the best if company.

tryfix

kiers47 wrote: »

Just to go slightly off topic also. Pascal Bary had a nice looking colt win the G2 in Saint Cloud today. Won it nicely. Looks an ideal type for the Prix du Jockey Club.
Study of Man. He does have an entry in Epsom but i havent seen any quotes on what the plan is. 33/1 could be a bit of a rick if he is going there. But probably unlikely.

He won well and just like Saxon Warrior he too is a son of Deep Impact with an even speedier dam side. He's got a DI of 1.35 and he's out of a Storm Cat daughter of the mighty Miesque.

He'll make a cracking sire.

kiers47

tryfix wrote: »

I was watching from the comfort of my armchair and I get where you are coming from with built like a miler. He now has a big powerful arse to propel him quickly but he's also a long and big horse who would look like a proper stayer if he didn't have the big butt on him. Last year he travelled and stayed all day. In the Racing Post Trophy he crushed Roaring Lion by quickening again when Roaring Lion had quickened past him and was at ease crossing the line. That kind of running suggests stamina is not an issue for him and he was getting better the further he went in the Guineas, plus there was never a doubt that O'Brien was training him for the Derby.


On Maybe, you are right about her Oaks run not proving anything. I think there is suspect stamina in Maybe but also she didn't really train on so she couldn't prove her stamina. A lot of the more speedily bred Galileos end up staying but they don't stay too well, they just plug on.

As a dam though, Maybe has already upgraded the stamina of her own dam who herself is from à close up family who can outstay their own pedigrees in the best if company.

All fair points.
Also dont get my wrong im not trying to make light of the horse. If anyone reads the Guineas thread will know im a big fan.
I just think we dont know the full Derby picture yet and there are people on twitter and in the media more or less giving him the triple crown already. haha

His price for the derby is just gone now and i think while the most likely winner you couldnt possibly be backing him at even money or odds on.

That being said I do hope he wins the derby. Although if he doesnt then id hope The Pentagon could progress to take a bit of beating.

The triple crown sh*te i dont really care about. Not really a fan of the Leger. Id rather they ran him in the Irish Champions stakes the same weekend as it is a much better race. And i will get to have a look at him.:pac:

kiers47

https://youtu.be/V9K3xyl5VNY

Good video this from Epsom YouTube account.

diomed

I put a bet on yesterday's Lingfield Derby Trial winner Knight To Behold for the English Derby, €100 at 20s.
I have my own ideas about what I like to see in pedigrees, and he does not have that. But his pedigree is stacked with Derby horses.

His sire, Sea The Stars, won the English Derby.
His damsire, Sadler's Wells, has produced English Derby winners.

If you look at the sires of the dams along the dam line of Knight To Behold:
Dancing Brave (sire of 1st dam), narrowly failed in the Derby, won the King George and the Arc.
Dancing Brave, although exported to Japan, was sire of English Derby winner, Commander In Chief, and Irish Oaks winner Wemyss Bight.
Dancer's Image (sire of 2nd dam), first past the post in the Kentucky Derby but failed a drug test. This sire is more a speed influence imo.
Val De Loir (sire of 3rd dam), won the French Derby when it was 2400 metres (~12f).
Val De Loir was also damsire of Derby winner, Shergar, and Oaks winner Sun Princess.
Charlottesville (sire of 4th dam), won the French Derby when it was 2400 metres (~12f), and the Grand Prix de Paris (3000 metres).

Knight To Behold's second dam, Ballerina, produced English St Leger (14.5f) winner Millenary.
Knight To Behold's fourth dam Sunny Valley produced two Group 1 winners, Sun Princess (English Oaks 12f) and Saddlers' Hall (Coronation Cup 12f).

This horse will stay the 12f English Derby, the question is will he have the speed.

diomed

Saxon Warrior is generally 4/5 for the Derby.
That is the price for something leading at the 2f pole and going well.
He might win but bookmakers will sell that all day, and all year.

Last Saturday I overheard a punter saying after he bet on the favourite, Jaega, in the Blue Wind Stakes that the bookmaker said "I love selling a 2/1 shot at evens".
It came second.

kiers47

diomed wrote: »

Saxon Warrior is generally 4/5 for the Derby.
That is the price for something leading at the 2f pole and going well.
He might win but bookmakers will sell that all day, and all year.

Last Saturday I overheard a punter saying after he bet on the favourite, Jaega, in the Blue Wind Stakes that the bookmaker said "I love selling a 2/1 shot at evens".
It came second.

Yes definitely extremely short. Have expressed this concern myself and i love the horse.

In recent years or well 10years ago. lol
I remember Authorized being about an evens or 11/10 shot after pissing in in the Dante. He drifted slightly on the day from what i remember but he was much the best. Antepost has been fairly dead for a while now.
Id be surprised if you couldnt get a fair bit of odds against on the day.

The Derby is still the Derby at the end of the day.

antietam

Saxon Warrior [based on facts]is at least 10 lbs better than anything I've seen so far and IMO a steering job. Listening to John Gosden he reiterated my opinion in some way after his Roaring Lion won a shocking Dante.Anybody making cases for horses to beat him are clutching at very tenuous straws in a very serious way.

tryfix

Well that was a fascinating Dante. Roaring Lion has an engine, his burst of speed and his being full of running after the line promise more than the bare bones of the performance do.

At first his run was jaw-dropping, then the replay of his drift across the track made you think that he's maybe a bit of a rogue which is more than a bit unfair to him. York is also a track where wide margin wins have to be taken with a grain of salt ( Tapestry's thrashing of Tahgrooda springs to mind.

On the form book Roaring Lion was more than entitled to give that field of Listed Class horses a 7lb beating. He did however manage to extend his 2yo margin of victory over Mildenberg from 2L to 4 1/2L . The form of this race ties in with the Irish Derby Trials and Nelson, The Pentagon, Delano Roosevelt , Hazapour etc.

Roaring Lion's form this year looks like a repeat of The Grey Gatsby. Beaten in the Craven, beaten in the Guineas and then a great if not entirely convincing effort in The Dante followed by a French Derby win ( which would seem to be an appropriate target for Roaring Lion ) . An end of year settle all clash in the Irish Champion Stakes would be spectacular if Saxon Warrior doesn't end up at Doncaster.

kiers47

tryfix wrote: »

Well that was a fascinating Dante. Roaring Lion has an engine, his burst of speed and his being full of running after the line promise more than the bare bones of the performance do.

At first his run was jaw-dropping, then the replay of his drift across the track made you think that he's maybe a bit of a rogue which is more than a bit unfair to him. York is also a track where wide margin wins have to be taken with a grain of salt ( Tapestry's thrashing of Tahgrooda springs to mind.

On the form book Roaring Lion was more than entitled to give that field of Listed Class horses a 7lb beating. He did however manage to extend his 2yo margin of victory over Mildenberg from 2L to 4 1/2L . The form of this race ties in with the Irish Derby Trials and Nelson, The Pentagon, Delano Roosevelt , Hazapour etc.

Roaring Lion's form this year looks like a repeat of The Grey Gatsby. Beaten in the Craven, beaten in the Guineas and then a great if not entirely convincing effort in The Dante followed by a French Derby win ( which would seem to be an appropriate target for Roaring Lion ) . An end of year settle all clash in the Irish Champion Stakes would be spectacular if Saxon Warrior doesn't end up at Doncaster.

That clash in the Irish Champion sounds the stuff of dreams. You'd imagine there would be another couple of big contenders too although Saxon is almost a certainty for Doncaster if he wins the derby.
Hopefully they take a similar route to Camelot and we get the opportunity to see him strut his stuff in the Curragh. I don't plan on travelling across the pond for anything this year and am mad for a look at him.
He is nailed on to be retired after this year at the moment you'd imagine.

tryfix

kiers47 wrote: »

That clash in the Irish Champion sounds the stuff of dreams. You'd imagine there would be another couple of big contenders too although Saxon is almost a certainty for Doncaster if he wins the derby.
Hopefully they take a similar route to Camelot and we get the opportunity to see him strut his stuff in the Curragh. I don't plan on travelling across the pond for anything this year and am mad for a look at him.
He is nailed on to be retired after this year at the moment you'd imagine.

If things don't go to plan for Saxon Warrior at Epsom they could meet before that in the Juddmonte, maybe even in the Eclipse but that's a long shot.

Have to say that winning the Leger won't do much for his stud career in comparison to taking a top 10f race.

kiers47

tryfix wrote: »

If things don't go to plan for Saxon Warrior at Epsom they could meet before that in the Juddmonte, maybe even in the Eclipse but that's a long shot.

Have to say that winning the Leger won't do much for his stud career in comparison to taking a top 10f race.

Yes I fully agree. Although in saying that the powers that be at Coolmore are exceptionally good at marketing these things.

diomed

I always like to back outsiders in the big races so i look for weaknesses in the favourite, or possible/imagined weaknesses.

Yesterday I found my antepost English classics bet - 4 trebles €20 each.
2000 Saxon Warrior 6/1; 1000 Clemmie 3/1; Oaks September 8/1; Derby Roaring Lion 14/1.
At that time I thought Saxon Warrior was not a Derby type although I can not remember why.

I want to find a weakness in Saxon Warrior and if there is one it will be staying the Epsom 12f, possibly because that is the usual weakness of favourites.

Saxon Warrior won over 8f three times as a 2yo so no weakness there, although as a 26th January foal he may have had a maturity advantage.
He won the 2000 Guineas handily but not in a spreadeagling fashion. There were many horses within a few lengths at the finish.

Deep Impact (Sunday Silence - Wind In Her Hair), his sire, is the highest earning sire in the world.
His first covering year was 2007, progeny earnings to date Yen 42,774,416,000 (EUR 327,148,574) (1,099 starters) with an AEI 3.71.
Amazing average money of EUR 297,678 a starter (HRI please take notes ).
The prizemoney looks good, but I have seen Jananese races with EUR 240,000 for 5th place.

Deep Impact finished 3rd on 7 runners in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 12f good, later disqualified for a prohibited substance.
Runs: 14 times, winning 12, 1 2nd, 1 dsq.
Distances: 10f x 5; 11f x 1; 12f x 5; 15f x 2; 16f x 1
Ground: Firm x 11; good x 3

I wonder about the quality of the staying races he won in Japan at 15f and 16f.
Japanese St Leger 15f: the first four horses were sired by Sunday Silence.
Tenno Sho Spring 16f: the first three horses were sired by Sunday Silence.

His middle distance races:
12f firm in 2:23.30
12.5f in 2:31.90
12f (Arc 3rd) in 2:26.30
12f in 2:25.10
12.5f in 2:31.90
These imo are not really staying races, run on pancake flat tracks on very firm ground.
His son, Saxon Warrior, runs in the English Derby where a typical winning time is about 2:35, about 10/12 seconds slower, due to the 140 foot Epsom hill.

Deep Impact's sire, Sunday Silence won the Kentucky Derby 10f, and the Preakness Stakes 10f, but was beaten 8l by Easy Goer in the Belmont Stakes 12f on fast ground in a fast time.
Deep Impact's dam, Wind In Her Hair, was 2nd in the English Oaks to Balanchine, and 4th in the Irish Oaks. She ran 12f or longer seven times and won once at 12f in Germany (Group 1, easily).

Clutching at more straws let's look at the dam of Saxon Warrior, Maybe.
Runs: 9 times, winning 5, 1 3rd (wins 6f x 1; 7f x 4; all as a 2yo).
Distances: 6f x 1; 7f x 4; 8f x 3; 12f x 1
The 12f run was a 5th in the English Oaks.

My slight reservations about Saxon Warrior are:
a sire with doubtful staying credentials
a dam who only won as a 2yo

I might be back in June to eat humble pie.

kiers47

kiers47 wrote: »

Yes I fully agree. Although in saying that the powers that be at Coolmore are exceptionally good at marketing these things.

To be fair his dad won over 2m and it doesn't seem to be doing his stud career any harm. Perhaps it's time for european breeders to be more open minded about these things.

diomed

Kew Gardens, 2nd in Lingfield Derby Trial, 1m 3.5f
In the Irish Field it says (twice) that he lost a shoe in the race.
The video shows him taking two strange steps about 1 1/2f from the finish.
He will (?) be one of four Aidan O'Brien Derby entries.

diomed

Al Muffrih - William Haggas
Dee Ex Bee - Mark Johnston
Delano Roosevelt - A P O'Brien
Hazapour - D K Weld
Kew Gardens - A P O'Brien
Knight To Behold - Harry Dunlop
Masar - Charlie Appleby
Nelson - A P O'Brien
Roaring Lion - John Gosden
Rostropovich - A P O'Brien
Saxon Warrior - A P O'Brien
Sevenna Star - John Gosden
Study Of Man - P Bary
The Pentagon - A P O'Brien
Young Rascal - William Haggas
Zabriskie - A P O'Brien

del roy

If you think you have a couple of Derby horses, you have none.

Pinesky

del roy wrote: »

If you think you have a couple of Derby horses, you have none.

Unless you're Aidan O'Brien

del roy

Pinesky wrote: »

Unless you're Aidan O'Brien

He is just making the field bigger and surely a small field with two pace makers would be a easier situation for Saxion Warrior.

kiers47

del roy wrote: »

He is just making the field bigger and surely a small field with two pace makers would be a easier situation for Saxion Warrior.

Generally speaking this has been Ballydoyles modus operandi on the derby for the last 5 or so years. So nothing out of the ordinary in fairness.

longshotvalue

del roy wrote: »

He is just making the field bigger and surely a small field with two pace makers would be a easier situation for Saxion Warrior.

There all bred for it , will mostly appreciate the step up in trip and if they were with any other trainer they would certainly be going for it.


Plenty of proof not to ignore his runners at a big price.


No wings of Eagles this year all the same :-(

del roy

kiers47 wrote: »

Generally speaking this has been Ballydoyles modus operandi on the derby for the last 5 or so years. So nothing out of the ordinary in fairness.

Agree Kiers but did they have a 4/6fav supposed to be the beast of all beasts,

diomed

They have the beast of all beasts every year,
Listen, you wouldn't believe what he us doing at home.
We haven't a horse that can lead him.

kiers47

del roy wrote: »

Agree Kiers but did they have a 4/6fav supposed to be the beast of all beasts,

Australia went evens and a bit shorter after the guineas(drifted back a bit on the week of) and he was "the best ive ever trained" at the time.
They still ran 4 or something against him.

Generally speaking if they have a horse good enough to run they run them.

kiers47

Another interesting point i will make on this and this likely belongs in the stallion thread. But Coolmore are in the business of producing stallions and marketing them.
A derby winner is massive. There are a lot of things that can go wrong in a race on the day and no horse is guaranteed to handle the track or get the trip. I have already expressed my small concerns on the conformation of the horse being more of a miler and the slight concern i have on the stamina.

If things dont go right. Coolmore would rather that they picked up the pieces than say Godolphin or another rival winning it. They probably know where they stand on Saxon Warrior beating their horses so why not throw them in if things dont go right. Blockers for another operation landing a derby winner.
Its smart business imo.

diomed

I said above that I am looking for reasons to oppose the favourite, Saxon Warrior, and tried the "won't stay" angle.

Deep Impact was 3rd in the 2400m / 12f Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and was later disqualified
"tested positive for Ipratropium, an inhaled substance which aids the respiratory system and is banned in horse racing in Europe, but not Japan."
"We weren't aware Deep Impact had anything as serious as asthma but we know he had treatment for his breathing," equine director Keiji Nishimura said."

I see on attheraces and elsewhere that because Deep Impact won at 3200m / 16f in Japan his son, Saxon Warrior, should stay the Epsom 12f.
Deep Impact may have won at extreme distances in Japan but that was: on medication; on firm ground; on flat tracks.
Deep Impact didn't fully see out the 12f Arc when on medication, in the 7th fastest Arc at Longchamp
"led 2f out, soon under pressure, headed 1f out, no extra final 100yds, finished 3rd, disqualified".

diomed

On the JBIS website: Japanese Bloodstock Information System (English Version), the comment about Deep Impact in the Arc was "FAIL TO FINISH".

The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is back at Longchamp this year.
The Japanese want to win that race with a Japanese bred, Japanese owned, Japanese trained, Japanese ridden horse, and my guess is they want it at Longchamp.
I think they have bought twelve Arc winners and some English Derby winners.
Forget the Triple Crown. A wild guess is Saxon Warrior could change ownership after the English Derby.
Galileo is 20 years old. Deep Impact is 16 years old.
This could be the replacement for one or the other.

MichaelR

I'm a noob but I would tentatively doubt the Japanese would want Saxon Warrior back as a first choice to improve their bloodlines.

He is a grandson of Sunday Silence and Sunday Silence is an invasive species in Japan already. The Japan Derby, running today, might as well be Sunday Silence Stakes with apparently *all* runners being his descendants. https://umanity.jp/en/racedata/race_8.php?code=2018052705021210

So I don't think my little bet on him winning the Triple Crown will be derailed by a Japanese rustling

antietam

As of 7pm today and after 16mm of rain the ground is now soft at Epsom and very unsettled weather forecast from now till Saturday.

diomed

Firm ground on Saturday.
The clerk of the course and his staff have an easy week, no need to water.

Gringo180

diomed wrote: »

Firm ground on Saturday.
The clerk of the course and his staff have an easy week, no need to water.

Firm?

supremenovice

I'm having another look at Masar. Seems to be a bit forgotten now since the Guineas, but he beat Roaring Lion that day and that horse is now second favourite. His sire is New Approach (Derby winner in 2008) and the Dams sire is Cape Cross (Sea the Stars sire) so it suggests he'll get the trip. I think 16s is a right good bet, before final decs tomorrow.

diomed

Gringo180 wrote: »

Firm?

Perhaps not, but they will have "good" in the description.
They are terrible for describing the ground as something other than what it is.
Joking aside, it dries up very quickly and I doubt it will be worse than good, even with rain due on Thursday.

diomed

I went for a stamina Derby, not a speed Derby.

Knight To Behold 22.34 €161.67 €3,450.10
Sevenna Star 75.63 €40.00 €2,985.25
Kew Gardens 86.70 €157.43 €13,491.67
The Pentagon 50.00 €6.00 €294.00

diomed

A good site if you want to see the forecast rain
https://www.windfinder.com/#9/51.5899/-0.2994/rain
Click the +3h on the right of the bottom bar to move forward 3 hours

Itziger

There's a fair little difference now between 'good to soft' and 'firm'. Diomed then goes and says he's expecting a staying type to win rather than a speed type.
You'd hardly go for a stayer if you expected firm ground.

tryfix

supremenovice wrote: »

I'm having another look at Masar. Seems to be a bit forgotten now since the Guineas, but he beat Roaring Lion that day and that horse is now second favourite. His sire is New Approach (Derby winner in 2008) and the Dams sire is Cape Cross (Sea the Stars sire) so it suggests he'll get the trip. I think 16s is a right good bet, before final decs tomorrow.

I've been looking at him and I'm going to have a saver on him. He was a good third in the Derby with a pedigree full of quality and he's very closely related to Jim Bolger's Derrinstown winner Moonlight Magic.

He has Urban Sea in both sides of his pedigree, on the sire side from his grandad Galileo, on the dam side he's very closely related to Sea The Stars as his damsire is Cape Cross and his dam is a granddaughter of Urban Sea's daughter Melikah who was The result of a union with Derby winner Lammtarra.

Moonlight Magic was very disappointing in the Derby, he had one more crack at 12f after it in the Irish Derby and then came back to 10f for the rest of his career.

Moonlight Magic has a DI of 1.40 which explains why he failed to live up to expectations over 12f. Masar has a much stouter DI of 0.79 so maybe he can get the job done where Moonlight Magic failed.

He'd be a very interesting staying prospect if he's on the premises 2f from home.

Gringo180

Itziger wrote: »

There's a fair little difference now between 'good to soft' and 'firm'. Diomed then goes and says he's expecting a staying type to win rather than a speed type.
You'd hardly go for a stayer if you expected firm ground.

Quicker the ground faster the pace. You always need stamina on your side to win a Derby.

Although the racingpost have the official going as soft.

diomed

Standard times 12f: Epsom 2:34.50; The Curragh 2:30.50

Why is Epsom standard time slower by 4 seconds (about 20 lengths)?
They climb a 140 foot hill.
Average field size also tends to be higher, greater than 14 average this century.
A bigger field usually results in a faster pace.

The last time the Irish Derby had a double figure field was 2010 (10 ran). Twice recently they has 5 runners.