Epsom Derby 2018

diomed

Kew Gardens and Knight To Behold will give the favourite a race imo

Punters are taking too much on trust with Deep Impact, sire of Saxon Warrior.
When he ran in the 12f Arc he didn't stay, and he was later disqualified for running on drugs to assist his breathing.
Deep Impact hasn't produced a horse that has won over 12f in Europe in a good race as far as i can see.

His best runner in Europe, A Shin Hikari, won a 9f Group 1 in France by 10 lengths.
Three weeks later he was last of six at Royal Ascot over 10f on soft, beaten 5 length by the horse who was 5th btn 14 lto him in France.
That is very suspicious form.

Deep Impact's other good horse, the mare Gentildonna, won five times over 12f (four on firm), but St Nicholas Abbey beat her 2 1/4 l over 12f on good.
St Nicholas Abbey, a noted fast ground horse, beat Gentildonna, another fast ground horse, which suggest to me she was a little below his class.
He won the Coronation Cup winner at Epsom three times.

Kauto

Gringo180 wrote: »

Zero chance Saxon Warriors best trip will be 1m4f. Honestly cant see him staying.

He's a certainty to stay 2M never mind 12F

diomed

Kauto wrote: »

He's a certainty to stay 2M never mind 12F

Let's talk about his hurdling career later, after he bombs out today.

Slattsy

The Pentagon at 50s will do for me each way.

Saxon Warrior could and should be a class above this shower.

FatRat

I'm on The Young Rascal e/w. Also on Knight to Behold myself and I'm very happy with the 25 I got for him, even though this might drift further. I think generally anyone who fancies a horse that isn't the favourite is getting a very good price because of the skewed market. Im honestly baffled how Saxon can be 4/5 or less for this race. Best horse by the looks of things but in this type of race, over this distance - that is some reckless punting taking him at those odds.

People will laugh at this but I would only consider a bet if he was around 5/2 or higher. Would not be the most shocking result to me if he doesn't even place.

mailburner

went with knight to behold ew at 20s hoping for a place only

I don't see what beats the fav either

supremenovice

diomed wrote: »

I went for a stamina Derby, not a speed Derby.

Knight To Behold 22.34 €161.67 €3,450.10
Sevenna Star 75.63 €40.00 €2,985.25
Kew Gardens 86.70 €157.43 €13,491.67
The Pentagon 50.00 €6.00 €294.00

I tell you what - serious kahonies on you to put €157 on Kew Gardens at 86.70. I wouldnt put that on a 1/10 shot! Best of luck with it

akelly02

Kauto wrote: »

Masar has no chance. Should be 50/1. Was keen in Newmarket last time and as with the majority of the boys in blue horses they go backwards after a start or two. Be amazed if this beats more than 1 or 2 home.

You really hate Applebys horses don’t you , it’s funny

diomed

supremenovice wrote: »

I tell you what - serious kahonies on you to put €157 on Kew Gardens at 86.70. I wouldnt put that on a 1/10 shot! Best of luck with it

Update
Knight To Behold 22.34 €161.67 €3,450.10
Sevenna Star 75.63 €40.00 €2,985.25
Kew Gardens 86.91 €167.98 €14,430.62
The Pentagon 50.00 €6.00 €294.00
Total €375.65

I am also betting Saxon Warrior to finish outside the top 4 (odds 1.19).
He wins or he flops.

diomed

I sent an e-mail to TurfTrax "why no Epsom going map?"
The going map is now displayed.

supremenovice

diomed wrote: »

Update
Knight To Behold 22.34 €161.67 €3,450.10
Sevenna Star 75.63 €40.00 €2,985.25
Kew Gardens 86.91 €167.98 €14,430.62
The Pentagon 50.00 €6.00 €294.00
Total €375.65

I am also betting Saxon Warrior to finish outside the top 4 (odds 1.19).
He wins or he flops.

Im trying to fathom how a man can put €167.98 on Kew Gardens. If it was me I'd be saying "Ill never see that money again". I'll throw a tenner on him myself since that is as confident a selection I've heard to now.

NinetyTwoTeam

Gringo180 wrote: »

Zero chance Saxon Warriors best trip will be 1m4f. Honestly cant see him staying.

you must have been watching a different guineas to the one i saw then. he looked like he could easily get another couple of furlongs.

but i suppose when you're dreaming of a big price winner you'll convince yourself of anything.

they are literally begging punters to back anything but the fav. can't recall a market where a 4/5 fav had all double digit prices behind him, usually we're talking 6 or 7s for the second fav when the fav is that price. boyles offering money back as a free bet if 2nd or 3rd to the fav.

NinetyTwoTeam

FatRat wrote: »

I'm on The Young Rascal e/w. Also on Knight to Behold myself and I'm very happy with the 25 I got for him, even though this might drift further. I think generally anyone who fancies a horse that isn't the favourite is getting a very good price because of the skewed market. Im honestly baffled how Saxon can be 4/5 or less for this race. Best horse by the looks of things but in this type of race, over this distance - that is some reckless punting taking him at those odds.

People will laugh at this but I would only consider a bet if he was around 5/2 or higher. Would not be the most shocking result to me if he doesn't even place.

oh good lord. you want the horse that's head ans shoulders above the rest of the field to be 5/2 or better for you to back him, but since the mean Mr. Bookmaker won't give you that and you're too scared to back odds on, then you start telling yourself you wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't place, that about sum it up?

you're talking about reckless punting when you're throwing money on away on horses that have chances named slim and none as regards win purposes.

the market is giving generous prices on the other horses but it is far from skewed. it's to get all the mugs who only bet fivers on big price horses twice a year to take the also-rans which will even things out as anyone with a clue is on the fav now that the ground is drying. the trip was never going to be an issue.

diomed

supremenovice wrote: »

Im trying to fathom how a man can put €167.98 on Kew Gardens. If it was me I'd be saying "Ill never see that money again". I'll throw a tenner on him myself since that is as confident a selection I've heard to now.

If you can find reason a horse might not win you should look for other who might win.
My rule is to put more on big price horses and less on short price horses.

A baby could pick Saxon Warrior as a likely winner. He has four ones in front of his name.
Previously I backed a horse in the Derby with eight ones in front of his name (4th).

I might go years in the Derby without a winner.
Since my first Derby winner in 1992 I have had three winners (3 of 25).
If I was totally honest I would say I backed 2 of 25. The other was the 2nd leg of an Oaks/Derby winning double as I knew he would win.
I'll send you a PM (personal message) listing the winners and odds.

Slattsy

How did those gob****es get on TV.

All over Lincoln Rocks here, ticks every box for me and think that Nyaleti form is the best in the race.

Slattsy

Ground looks better than I thought!

droidman123

They actually showed 4 replays of that clown dettori jumping off the horse

TheMilkyPirate

Kevin Blake and that other clown are awful hard to listen to they're so contrived

byronbay2

Slattsy wrote: »

Ground looks better than I thought!

Yeah, drying out quickly in the heat. Should be perfect Good ground by 16.30.

downwesht

Dermot Weld won't be far away!

Mgoraf

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Kevin Blake and that other clown are awful hard to listen to they're so contrived

Kennedy is the biggest muppet around. No idea how he managed to get on tv.

tinpib

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Kevin Blake and that other clown are awful hard to listen to they're so contrived

Emmet Kennedy, ya extremely hard to listen too, very Alan Partridge-esque.

BorneTobyWilde

Just That Lord 28-1 5 places LB
3.45 race

That looks value. On 8st 2lb and has placed twice here over
this distance in fast times.
Will go try make all here, could lead them a merry dance.

antietam

After having a decent bet on Anna Nerium trying to get back on track with Tarboosh 14/1.

diomed

Pettochside 55.00 €10.00 €540.00
Second in the Dash :mad:

kiers47

I'd say I could fill my tracker with the eye catchers in that race. :pac:

BorneTobyWilde

Almost for Just My Lord. The draw was no help, but a good 3rd at a big price.

diomed

Half the field get stopped in a run in that race.

NinetyTwoTeam

Really can't understand anyone backing Knight to Behold. None of the horses who have won that trial have been better than 5th in the Derby. and Kew Gardens got slammed by him at 8/11 in that race he's another no hoper.

other than that trial he's had 2 runs. won a class 4 by a neck and was 2nd in his debut.

NinetyTwoTeam

diomed wrote: »

I went for a stamina Derby, not a speed Derby.

Knight To Behold 22.34 €161.67 €3,450.10
Sevenna Star 75.63 €40.00 €2,985.25
Kew Gardens 86.70 €157.43 €13,491.67
The Pentagon 50.00 €6.00 €294.00

wow, that's... just... I'll go with gutsy.