Epsom Derby 2018

kiers47

del roy wrote: »

He is just making the field bigger and surely a small field with two pace makers would be a easier situation for Saxion Warrior.

Generally speaking this has been Ballydoyles modus operandi on the derby for the last 5 or so years. So nothing out of the ordinary in fairness.

longshotvalue

del roy wrote: »

He is just making the field bigger and surely a small field with two pace makers would be a easier situation for Saxion Warrior.

There all bred for it , will mostly appreciate the step up in trip and if they were with any other trainer they would certainly be going for it.


Plenty of proof not to ignore his runners at a big price.


No wings of Eagles this year all the same :-(

del roy

kiers47 wrote: »

Generally speaking this has been Ballydoyles modus operandi on the derby for the last 5 or so years. So nothing out of the ordinary in fairness.

Agree Kiers but did they have a 4/6fav supposed to be the beast of all beasts,

diomed

They have the beast of all beasts every year,
Listen, you wouldn't believe what he us doing at home.
We haven't a horse that can lead him.

kiers47

del roy wrote: »

Agree Kiers but did they have a 4/6fav supposed to be the beast of all beasts,

Australia went evens and a bit shorter after the guineas(drifted back a bit on the week of) and he was "the best ive ever trained" at the time.
They still ran 4 or something against him.

Generally speaking if they have a horse good enough to run they run them.

kiers47

Another interesting point i will make on this and this likely belongs in the stallion thread. But Coolmore are in the business of producing stallions and marketing them.
A derby winner is massive. There are a lot of things that can go wrong in a race on the day and no horse is guaranteed to handle the track or get the trip. I have already expressed my small concerns on the conformation of the horse being more of a miler and the slight concern i have on the stamina.

If things dont go right. Coolmore would rather that they picked up the pieces than say Godolphin or another rival winning it. They probably know where they stand on Saxon Warrior beating their horses so why not throw them in if things dont go right. Blockers for another operation landing a derby winner.
Its smart business imo.

diomed

I said above that I am looking for reasons to oppose the favourite, Saxon Warrior, and tried the "won't stay" angle.

Deep Impact was 3rd in the 2400m / 12f Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and was later disqualified
"tested positive for Ipratropium, an inhaled substance which aids the respiratory system and is banned in horse racing in Europe, but not Japan."
"We weren't aware Deep Impact had anything as serious as asthma but we know he had treatment for his breathing," equine director Keiji Nishimura said."

I see on attheraces and elsewhere that because Deep Impact won at 3200m / 16f in Japan his son, Saxon Warrior, should stay the Epsom 12f.
Deep Impact may have won at extreme distances in Japan but that was: on medication; on firm ground; on flat tracks.
Deep Impact didn't fully see out the 12f Arc when on medication, in the 7th fastest Arc at Longchamp
"led 2f out, soon under pressure, headed 1f out, no extra final 100yds, finished 3rd, disqualified".

diomed

On the JBIS website: Japanese Bloodstock Information System (English Version), the comment about Deep Impact in the Arc was "FAIL TO FINISH".

The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is back at Longchamp this year.
The Japanese want to win that race with a Japanese bred, Japanese owned, Japanese trained, Japanese ridden horse, and my guess is they want it at Longchamp.
I think they have bought twelve Arc winners and some English Derby winners.
Forget the Triple Crown. A wild guess is Saxon Warrior could change ownership after the English Derby.
Galileo is 20 years old. Deep Impact is 16 years old.
This could be the replacement for one or the other.

MichaelR

I'm a noob but I would tentatively doubt the Japanese would want Saxon Warrior back as a first choice to improve their bloodlines.

He is a grandson of Sunday Silence and Sunday Silence is an invasive species in Japan already. The Japan Derby, running today, might as well be Sunday Silence Stakes with apparently *all* runners being his descendants. https://umanity.jp/en/racedata/race_8.php?code=2018052705021210

So I don't think my little bet on him winning the Triple Crown will be derailed by a Japanese rustling

antietam

As of 7pm today and after 16mm of rain the ground is now soft at Epsom and very unsettled weather forecast from now till Saturday.

diomed

Firm ground on Saturday.
The clerk of the course and his staff have an easy week, no need to water.

Gringo180

diomed wrote: »

Firm ground on Saturday.
The clerk of the course and his staff have an easy week, no need to water.

Firm?

supremenovice

I'm having another look at Masar. Seems to be a bit forgotten now since the Guineas, but he beat Roaring Lion that day and that horse is now second favourite. His sire is New Approach (Derby winner in 2008) and the Dams sire is Cape Cross (Sea the Stars sire) so it suggests he'll get the trip. I think 16s is a right good bet, before final decs tomorrow.

diomed

Gringo180 wrote: »

Firm?

Perhaps not, but they will have "good" in the description.
They are terrible for describing the ground as something other than what it is.
Joking aside, it dries up very quickly and I doubt it will be worse than good, even with rain due on Thursday.

diomed

I went for a stamina Derby, not a speed Derby.

Knight To Behold 22.34 €161.67 €3,450.10
Sevenna Star 75.63 €40.00 €2,985.25
Kew Gardens 86.70 €157.43 €13,491.67
The Pentagon 50.00 €6.00 €294.00

diomed

A good site if you want to see the forecast rain
https://www.windfinder.com/#9/51.5899/-0.2994/rain
Click the +3h on the right of the bottom bar to move forward 3 hours

Itziger

There's a fair little difference now between 'good to soft' and 'firm'. Diomed then goes and says he's expecting a staying type to win rather than a speed type.
You'd hardly go for a stayer if you expected firm ground.

tryfix

supremenovice wrote: »

I'm having another look at Masar. Seems to be a bit forgotten now since the Guineas, but he beat Roaring Lion that day and that horse is now second favourite. His sire is New Approach (Derby winner in 2008) and the Dams sire is Cape Cross (Sea the Stars sire) so it suggests he'll get the trip. I think 16s is a right good bet, before final decs tomorrow.

I've been looking at him and I'm going to have a saver on him. He was a good third in the Derby with a pedigree full of quality and he's very closely related to Jim Bolger's Derrinstown winner Moonlight Magic.

He has Urban Sea in both sides of his pedigree, on the sire side from his grandad Galileo, on the dam side he's very closely related to Sea The Stars as his damsire is Cape Cross and his dam is a granddaughter of Urban Sea's daughter Melikah who was The result of a union with Derby winner Lammtarra.

Moonlight Magic was very disappointing in the Derby, he had one more crack at 12f after it in the Irish Derby and then came back to 10f for the rest of his career.

Moonlight Magic has a DI of 1.40 which explains why he failed to live up to expectations over 12f. Masar has a much stouter DI of 0.79 so maybe he can get the job done where Moonlight Magic failed.

He'd be a very interesting staying prospect if he's on the premises 2f from home.

Gringo180

Itziger wrote: »

There's a fair little difference now between 'good to soft' and 'firm'. Diomed then goes and says he's expecting a staying type to win rather than a speed type.
You'd hardly go for a stayer if you expected firm ground.

Quicker the ground faster the pace. You always need stamina on your side to win a Derby.

Although the racingpost have the official going as soft.

diomed

Standard times 12f: Epsom 2:34.50; The Curragh 2:30.50

Why is Epsom standard time slower by 4 seconds (about 20 lengths)?
They climb a 140 foot hill.
Average field size also tends to be higher, greater than 14 average this century.
A bigger field usually results in a faster pace.

The last time the Irish Derby had a double figure field was 2010 (10 ran). Twice recently they has 5 runners.

antietam

As of 6am this morning the average going stick reading from stalls to finish reads 5.7 which is heavy[16 readings were taken].Epsom are expecting thundery showers in the region today"it could be hit or miss" according to forecasters.

2ndcoming

Saxon Warrior has been drawn in stall 1. A definite negative, only three winners have come from there. Expect the price to drift somewhat now.

The draw in full:
1 Saxon Warrior
2 Knight To Behold
3 Hazapour
4 Delano Roosevelt
5 Roaring Lion
6 Dee Ex Bee
7 Sevenna Star
8 Zabriskie
9 Young Rascal
10 Masar
11 The Penagon
12 Kew Gardens

2ndcoming

Lucky number 7 for Sevenna Star?

diomed

2ndcoming wrote: »

Saxon Warrior has been drawn in stall 1. A definite negative, only three winners have come from there. Expect the price to drift somewhat now.

Those three stall 1 winners were:
1969: Blakeney (26 ran)
1972: Roberto (22 ran)
1999: Oath (18 ran)

I think the draw is not as important as it was.
Starting in 2011 the starter has split the field equally between the two starting stalls machines e.g. in a field of 12 he will put 6 in each machine.
And they now place the two starting stall machines in the centre of the track.

Previously they always put stall 1 tight against the inner rail and filled it 1 to 10, then put the remaining horses in the outer stalls machine.
See 2010 on youtube for an example, 12 runners, 10 in machine 1, 2 in machine 2.

The BHA designated Epsom as a left turning track, but that is incorrect for the 12f start as it is a right turning track.

diomed

1967-2010 1st
Draw 1st Horses %
1 3 42 7.1
2 0 42 0
3 3 42 7.1
4 4 42 9.5
5 4 42 9.5
6 3 42 7.1
7 1 42 2.4
8 2 42 4.8
9 3 42 7.1
10 8 42 19
11 0 42 0
12 0 42 0
13 2 36 5.6
14 3 35 8.6
15 2 29 6.9
16 0 27 0
17 2 25 8
18 1 22 4.5
19 1 17 5.9
20 0 13 0
21 0 12 0
22 0 9 0
23 0 6 0
24 0 4 0
25 0 4 0
26 0 1 0

42 744 5.64

Francie Barrett

The draw and the weather have really thrown a spanner into the works for the antepost betting.

Sevenna Star and Zabriskie - neither looks anywhere near good enough to win.

Dee Ex Bee doesn't have the form, conditions or breeding profile to win.

Masar's weakening finish for the Guineas is a real negative for me. On breeding though, you'd have to think it has potential.

The Pentagon was one of the original favourites from last year for the Derby, obviously based on its pedigree which screamed Derby. It certainly has the breeding, but the form is worrying. Beaten by Delano Roosevelt twice now (over good and heavy) while making no inroads at the finish is enough to put me off.

I can't see Roaring Lion taking to the soft ground on breeding and reckon it's a doubtful stayer over the trip, so I am not surprised to see it drifting.

Young Rascal is another you would have to question will it stay the 1m 4f on soft ground.

Delano Roosevelt is backed as O'Brien's second best. Unlike The Pentagon, it has the form, but breeding on the dam side suggests it won't stay.

Knight To Behold has Derby pedigree and put in an impressive run in the Lingfield trial. However it was allowed first run that day which if it tries to replicate for the Derby I think will mean its early speed will be burned off early.

Hazapour being well backed, but the form of its sire and progeny in no way suggests that it can stay the Derby trip.

Saxon Warrior now out to as high as 11/10 with the ground likely to be soft and it having a lousy draw. I already have this horse antepost at higher prices so am happy to sit on that.

You would have to think that maybe Kew Gardens at 40/1 could be the value for money here. Sire a winner of the Derby, the damsire a winner of the Irish Derby. Pedigree is clearly there and I think in a quickly run race with pacemakers, I can see it been held up before and delivered late.

The Mig

Masar is wearing the wrong shade of Blue to win a Derby...

Gonna give Kew Gardens and Knight to Behold a ew shot. Can't see Saxon being beaten though!

tryfix

There are some mighty fancy prices available. As I see it neither the ground or competition will stop Saxon Warrior, only Ryan Moore can do that and I wouldn't put it past him to be out the back for most of the race.

The Mig

Trend for Saxon Warrior who is in Stall 1

https://twitter.com/HughRacing/status/1002131657212727296

diomed

I'm not sure if Kew Gardens will like soft.
His win as a 2yo on good in the 10f Zetland Stakes in October 2017 was the fastest time in that race in the 26 years shown on Wikipedia.. It might have been firm ground.
Earlier Kew Gardens showed stamina and fighting qualities when he came from 8th to 2nd in the last furlong behind Nelson at Leopardstown, but it was a bad 2nd.
Keeping up the excuses he reduced the lead from 7 l to 3 1/4 l in his last race at Lingfield. He lost a front shoe about 2f out.
He looks a little slow, but makes an effort.

I think the favourite should be around 3/1.