Epsom Derby 2018

antietam · 31-05-2018 9:18am

As of 6am this morning the average going stick reading from stalls to finish reads 5.7 which is heavy[16 readings were taken].Epsom are expecting thundery showers in the region today"it could be hit or miss" according to forecasters.

2ndcoming · 31-05-2018 10:41am

Saxon Warrior has been drawn in stall 1. A definite negative, only three winners have come from there. Expect the price to drift somewhat now.

The draw in full:
1 Saxon Warrior
2 Knight To Behold
3 Hazapour
4 Delano Roosevelt
5 Roaring Lion
6 Dee Ex Bee
7 Sevenna Star
8 Zabriskie
9 Young Rascal
10 Masar
11 The Penagon
12 Kew Gardens

2ndcoming · 31-05-2018 10:43am

Lucky number 7 for Sevenna Star?

diomed · 31-05-2018 11:03am

2ndcoming wrote: »

Saxon Warrior has been drawn in stall 1. A definite negative, only three winners have come from there. Expect the price to drift somewhat now.

Those three stall 1 winners were:
1969: Blakeney (26 ran)
1972: Roberto (22 ran)
1999: Oath (18 ran)

I think the draw is not as important as it was.
Starting in 2011 the starter has split the field equally between the two starting stalls machines e.g. in a field of 12 he will put 6 in each machine.
And they now place the two starting stall machines in the centre of the track.

Previously they always put stall 1 tight against the inner rail and filled it 1 to 10, then put the remaining horses in the outer stalls machine.
See 2010 on youtube for an example, 12 runners, 10 in machine 1, 2 in machine 2.

The BHA designated Epsom as a left turning track, but that is incorrect for the 12f start as it is a right turning track.

diomed · 31-05-2018 11:05am

1967-2010 1st
Draw 1st Horses %
1 3 42 7.1
2 0 42 0
3 3 42 7.1
4 4 42 9.5
5 4 42 9.5
6 3 42 7.1
7 1 42 2.4
8 2 42 4.8
9 3 42 7.1
10 8 42 19
11 0 42 0
12 0 42 0
13 2 36 5.6
14 3 35 8.6
15 2 29 6.9
16 0 27 0
17 2 25 8
18 1 22 4.5
19 1 17 5.9
20 0 13 0
21 0 12 0
22 0 9 0
23 0 6 0
24 0 4 0
25 0 4 0
26 0 1 0

42 744 5.64

Francie Barrett · 31-05-2018 11:36am

The draw and the weather have really thrown a spanner into the works for the antepost betting.

Sevenna Star and Zabriskie - neither looks anywhere near good enough to win.

Dee Ex Bee doesn't have the form, conditions or breeding profile to win.

Masar's weakening finish for the Guineas is a real negative for me. On breeding though, you'd have to think it has potential.

The Pentagon was one of the original favourites from last year for the Derby, obviously based on its pedigree which screamed Derby. It certainly has the breeding, but the form is worrying. Beaten by Delano Roosevelt twice now (over good and heavy) while making no inroads at the finish is enough to put me off.

I can't see Roaring Lion taking to the soft ground on breeding and reckon it's a doubtful stayer over the trip, so I am not surprised to see it drifting.

Young Rascal is another you would have to question will it stay the 1m 4f on soft ground.

Delano Roosevelt is backed as O'Brien's second best. Unlike The Pentagon, it has the form, but breeding on the dam side suggests it won't stay.

Knight To Behold has Derby pedigree and put in an impressive run in the Lingfield trial. However it was allowed first run that day which if it tries to replicate for the Derby I think will mean its early speed will be burned off early.

Hazapour being well backed, but the form of its sire and progeny in no way suggests that it can stay the Derby trip.

Saxon Warrior now out to as high as 11/10 with the ground likely to be soft and it having a lousy draw. I already have this horse antepost at higher prices so am happy to sit on that.

You would have to think that maybe Kew Gardens at 40/1 could be the value for money here. Sire a winner of the Derby, the damsire a winner of the Irish Derby. Pedigree is clearly there and I think in a quickly run race with pacemakers, I can see it been held up before and delivered late.

The Mig · 31-05-2018 12:29pm

Masar is wearing the wrong shade of Blue to win a Derby...

Gonna give Kew Gardens and Knight to Behold a ew shot. Can't see Saxon being beaten though!

tryfix · 31-05-2018 12:50pm

There are some mighty fancy prices available. As I see it neither the ground or competition will stop Saxon Warrior, only Ryan Moore can do that and I wouldn't put it past him to be out the back for most of the race.

The Mig · 31-05-2018 12:53pm

Trend for Saxon Warrior who is in Stall 1

https://twitter.com/HughRacing/status/1002131657212727296

diomed · 31-05-2018 12:59pm

I'm not sure if Kew Gardens will like soft.
His win as a 2yo on good in the 10f Zetland Stakes in October 2017 was the fastest time in that race in the 26 years shown on Wikipedia.. It might have been firm ground.
Earlier Kew Gardens showed stamina and fighting qualities when he came from 8th to 2nd in the last furlong behind Nelson at Leopardstown, but it was a bad 2nd.
Keeping up the excuses he reduced the lead from 7 l to 3 1/4 l in his last race at Lingfield. He lost a front shoe about 2f out.
He looks a little slow, but makes an effort.

I think the favourite should be around 3/1.

longshotvalue · 31-05-2018 1:01pm

Beginning to the The Pentagon is the Solid Bet EW in this race. He looks the type to run into a place here, as ive had a look at his races and he sticks his head down when passed. He could easily improve for this trip and race. Seems a lot shorted than 5/1 to place to me

Mgoraf · 31-05-2018 1:08pm

What would you base your 3/1 on?

He's 5 pound clear on rpr of two horses he has already beaten ( one he's beaten twice)

He's won the best trial for the race and is unbeaten.

He deserves to be the price he is.

2ndcoming · 31-05-2018 1:23pm

I disagree. Prices always skew in favour of the bookie, particular where "machines" like Saxon Warrior are concerned.

There is a question mark over whether he gets the trip so in the interest of fairness he should really be odds against. If he gets the trip 8/11 would possibly be fair, meaning if they ran it 11 times he would win 8. As most people make him the best horse in the race that is feasible. However if he doesn't they could more than likely run it til the cows come home and he still wouldn't win.

2/1 or even 5/2 seems fairer in a perfect world based on that. Good luck getting it of course.

31-05-2018 1:24pm

tryfix wrote: »

There are some mighty fancy prices available. As I see it neither the ground or competition will stop Saxon Warrior, only Ryan Moore can do that and I wouldn't put it past him to be out the back for most of the race.

Nothing wrong with being out the back. Last 10 winners comments in running:

2017: Held up off the pace in rear
2016: Held up in mid-division
2015: Keen early held up
2014: Held up in mid-division
2013: Held up towards rear
2012: Steadied start, held up in last trio
2011: Held up last
2010: Held up in mid-division
2009: Took keen hold early, handy in main group (this was STS, he was the last winner anything like prominent)
2008: Pulled hard, held up towards rear

There's zero evidence that being handy is important in the derby, if Ryan does have him out the back he's only learning from experience.

kiers47 · 31-05-2018 1:56pm

2ndcoming wrote: »

There is a question mark over whether he gets the trip so in the interest of fairness he should really be odds against. If he gets the trip 8/11 would possibly be fair, meaning if they ran it 11 times he would win 8.

This part is incorrect.

8-11 would imply if they ran the race 19 times he should win 11 of them. You were almost there

2ndcoming · 31-05-2018 2:36pm

kiers47 wrote: »

This part is incorrect.

8-11 would imply if they ran the race 19 times he should win 11 of them. You were almost there

Always mix that up. Still, the logic remains the same

antietam · 31-05-2018 3:40pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Beginning to the The Pentagon is the Solid Bet EW in this race. He looks the type to run into a place here, as ive had a look at his races and he sticks his head down when passed. He could easily improve for this trip and race. Seems a lot shorted than 5/1 to place to me

Sold part huge bet on Saxon Warrior and backed The Pentagon.Lies will be told on ground by officials.My absolute information is the ground is summer heavy .

Mgoraf · 31-05-2018 4:33pm

The Pentagon is crying out for this trip but he needs fast ground.

diomed · 31-05-2018 4:42pm

Mgoraf wrote: »

What would you base your 3/1 on?
He's 5 pound clear on rpr of two horses he has already beaten ( one he's beaten twice)
He's won the best trial for the race and is unbeaten.
He deserves to be the price he is.

Unbeaten ... people can't see him beat
People can't see it until they see it, then they can't believe it.

Hector Protector came in unbeaten, 8 wins; 4th (6/1 3rd fav)
Tenby with 5 wins, 4/5 fav, 10th
Alhaarth 4 wins as a 2yo, 2/1 fav 2000 Guineas, beaten
Celtic Swing into the 2000 Guineas 4 wins, 4/5 fav, beaten

He's won the best trial for the race
There has been 10* beaten odds on Derby favourites that had won the 2000 Guineas
32 odds on favourites ran in the Derby, 18 won.
The 2000 Guineas winners & Derby odds on losers: Wizard *, Riddlesworth*, Macgregor*, Surefoot*, St Frusquin*, Slieve Gallion*, Big Game*, Tudor Minstrel*, El Gran Senor*, Entrepreneur*

We will find out after the race what was the best trial.

diomed · 31-05-2018 4:50pm

I did point out that the 10.1f AWD for Deep Impact on the RP website was also from a very small number of low grade winners in GB.
I went further and examined the winning distances of 350 runners sired by Deep Impact.
AWD is wins as a 3yo or older.
Many of the 350 had no wins, a handful only had wins as a 2yo.

201 wins 0,4,14,50,44,46,13,28,0,0,2,0,0,0,0,0 (5f to 20f left to right)
Deep Impact progeny AWD 9.39 (my calculation).

Of course my selection may not be representative of his crops.
Gentildonna had 5 of the 28 wins at 12f.
Satano Diamond had the 2 wins at 15f.

226 wins form 1815 runs = 12.45%
241 horses had 0 wins
56 horses had 1 win
22 horses had 2 wins
16 horses had 3 wins
8 horses had 4 wins
3 horses had 5 wins
2 horses had 6 wins
1 horse had 9 wins (Gentildonna)
1 horse had 10 wins (A Shin Hinari)

I find the numbers a little surprising.
241 horses with 0 wins looks wrong. My guees is most of their racing record is missing.
The Racing Post Deep Impact runners might be those who ran outside Japan, or competed in top Japanese races against Gentildonna, A Shin Hikari, and other top runners.
In the data are 205 runners with RPR 100+

diomed · 31-05-2018 5:11pm

1) Young Rascal
2) Dee Ex Bee
3) Kew Gardens
4) Zabriskie
5) Saxon Warrior
6) Delano Roosevelt

The Racing Post racecard Predictor result

tryfix · 31-05-2018 7:03pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Nothing wrong with being out the back. Last 10 winners comments in running:

2017: Held up off the pace in rear
2016: Held up in mid-division
2015: Keen early held up
2014: Held up in mid-division
2013: Held up towards rear
2012: Steadied start, held up in last trio
2011: Held up last
2010: Held up in mid-division
2009: Took keen hold early, handy in main group (this was STS, he was the last winner anything like prominent)
2008: Pulled hard, held up towards rear

There's zero evidence that being handy is important in the derby, if Ryan does have him out the back he's only learning from experience.

Ryan got trapped behind a wall of horses in rear when he was ready to make his run on US Army Ranger ( 16th out of 16 into the straight ), he eventually got out and made up a huge amount of ground but the huge effort he expended in getting to Harzand ( 8th out 16 in the straight ) meant he hadn't enough energy left to pass him.

There's a huge difference between being in the last three rounding Tattenham Corner and in being held up in midfield from where you can make steady progress.

kiers47 · 31-05-2018 7:38pm

Jesus I don't think you can blame Moore for US Army Ranger. He was an absolute rogue.
He was also pretty slow to stride and ran like he hated the track for the first mile.

It's hard to say he isn't the best jockey riding in the race. Anyone who thinks otherwise is pretty foolish imo.
All jockeys are going to make mistakes here and there that's just the nature of the game.

tryfix · 31-05-2018 9:48pm

kiers47 wrote: »

Jesus I don't think you can blame Moore for US Army Ranger. He was an absolute rogue.
He was also pretty slow to stride and ran like he hated the track for the first mile.

It's hard to say he isn't the best jockey riding in the race. Anyone who thinks otherwise is pretty foolish imo.
All jockeys are going to make mistakes here and there that's just the nature of the game.

I'll admit 100% that US Army Ranger is now a rogue, maybe the Derby soured him. Moore tried to launch his challenge earlier, because he couldn't smuggle the horse into a better position to launch his challenge very likely cost the horse the 1 1/2L he lost the race by. Not even the great Dancing Brave could come from last to first and US Army Ranger and Harzand were no Dancing Braves.

Ryan's the physically strongest jockey in the race, there's no one I'd prefer to have in a head to head battle over the last furlong.

Tactically, he's not an an assassin, he's well able to find trouble in running.

longshotvalue · 31-05-2018 9:57pm

Speaking of Jockeys. I watched a few Derby youtube collections, at its amazing how often Lester was in the exact right position no matter what. In fairness he was usually on the best horse.

diomed · 01-06-2018 10:19am

Previously I wrote about the hidden draw bias at Epsom.
Look at my post #56 above check out positions 10,11,12.
This bias has changed since 2011 due to a different method of filling the stalls, and of positioning the stalls on the course.

tryfix · 01-06-2018 8:33pm

I popped into the bookies on the way home today and had a saver on Masar @ 18/1. I can't believe his price, maybe he's not working well at home?

He stuck to his guns well in third in the Guineas, he's bred to stay which might explain why he struggled in the Guineas and he has the golden number 10 draw which means that he can get a good early position which is a huge advantage this week at Epsom. Wild Illusion showed that the stable is in reasonable form.

kiers47 · 01-06-2018 9:11pm

The Pentagon was the plan since last year for me. The trials and early season haven't really gone his way but will have a small win bet on him but will be hoping the Saxon does the job.

Kauto · 01-06-2018 10:19pm

tryfix wrote: »

I popped into the bookies on the way home today and had a saver on Masar @ 18/1. I can't believe his price, maybe he's not working well at home?

He stuck to his guns well in third in the Guineas, he's bred to stay which might explain why he struggled in the Guineas and he has the golden number 10 draw which means that he can get a good early position which is a huge advantage this week at Epsom. Wild Illusion showed that the stable is in reasonable form.

Masar has no chance. Should be 50/1. Was keen in Newmarket last time and as with the majority of the boys in blue horses they go backwards after a start or two. Be amazed if this beats more than 1 or 2 home.

piplip87 · 01-06-2018 11:52pm

Ew on the Pentagon for me. 33/1 is a serious price would expect 16s by the off.

zimmermania · 02-06-2018 12:49am

YOUNG RASCAL ew might be the answer,should stay and if the race becomes a real stamina test that will count and we may not have seen the best of him yet.

Looks a bit of value at 10/1 but as always in these races Aidan OBrien is to be feared as he leaves little to chance and tactic are worked out with military precision.

NinetyTwoTeam · 02-06-2018 1:29am

i think with Forever Together winning the Oaks, Wings of Eagles winning last year and of course, the much higher risk involved with an odds on is why so many are tipping up the 2nd and 3rd strings of AOB.

odds on favs lose all the time, but when the big big money prizes are there that is THE time to back the best horse from the best trainer.

saxon warrior is a lock IMO.

and if he happens to lose, it won't be to a stablemate, I'm quite confident of that. the Pentagon and Kew Gardens don't have anything like his turn of foot. neither of their last runs impressed me at all, they looked quite ordinary. saxons did impress me, he powered to the line so convincingly and just looked like a special animal. no way saxon finishes behind either of those 2.

i got evens yesterday and I'm happy with that rain or no rain. he should still be 4/6 like he was but between the knowledgeable punters being wary of the ground (a legit concern) and the casual punters who only bet two races a year shuddering at anything short priced its still a pretty backable 5/6 generally.

don't bother with the big priced AOB horses for win only purposes. it's throwing money away. the winner is at the top of the market. Haggas's horse has a squeak, he's been winning a lot of races lately, tho it's his fillies that have been especially dominant.

the ground would have to be bottomless to bring saxon down to the level of the rest of the field. hardly anything else even interests me other than like i said the WH horse or perhaps Roaring Lion but Saxon has beat him already and he definitely didn't want the rain. but those would be my E/W or bet without the fav picks.

Gringo180 · 02-06-2018 5:27am

Jockey booking on The Pentagon is a huge negative for me.

Mgoraf · 02-06-2018 7:49am

Hazapour and roaring lion are complete non stayers. Think they're terrible prices.

Fancy Delano Roosevelt to run into a place have an ew saver on him

Gringo180 · 02-06-2018 8:25am

Zero chance Saxon Warriors best trip will be 1m4f. Honestly cant see him staying.

tinpib · 02-06-2018 8:29am

Got a free bet on Bet365 for the Derby so went with Hazapour at 11/1. For the qualifying bet I went for O'Meara's Lincoln Rocks in the 235pm that has got some support.

edit: just to add in some logic, ridiculous price on Saxon Warrior. I like to see horses that appear to be aimed at the race and that show big improvement from 2 to 3. Hazapour fits that bill, like Forever Together yesterday in the Oaks.

Like the price on Masar too, but seems to have done a lot of travelling and racing already.

TheMilkyPirate · 02-06-2018 8:37am

Mgoraf wrote: »

Hazapour complete non stayer. Think they're terrible prices.

Bizzare statement.

Have Saxon warrior in a double but have backed Hazapour in a single, Unlike Mgoraf I think this trip is sure to bring about improvement.

Mgoraf · 02-06-2018 8:59am

Not really. Don't think shamradal has ever had a group 1 winner over 12f in the uk.

TheMilkyPirate · 02-06-2018 9:43am

Mgoraf wrote: »

Not really. Don't think shamradal has ever had a group 1 winner over 12f in the uk.

You would be right, but he has sired a 2m chaser!

More seriously Ihtimal was placed and stayed well in taghroodas Oaks, I also remember Dariyan being close up in a few top class 12f races so the potential is there. Certainly not a complete non stayer.

Juwwi · 02-06-2018 9:52am

Have the derby runners ever come stand side like they did in the oaks yesterday ? l cant remember a derby field that did myself .

diomed · 02-06-2018 10:02am

Kew Gardens and Knight To Behold will give the favourite a race imo

Punters are taking too much on trust with Deep Impact, sire of Saxon Warrior.
When he ran in the 12f Arc he didn't stay, and he was later disqualified for running on drugs to assist his breathing.
Deep Impact hasn't produced a horse that has won over 12f in Europe in a good race as far as i can see.

His best runner in Europe, A Shin Hikari, won a 9f Group 1 in France by 10 lengths.
Three weeks later he was last of six at Royal Ascot over 10f on soft, beaten 5 length by the horse who was 5th btn 14 lto him in France.
That is very suspicious form.

Deep Impact's other good horse, the mare Gentildonna, won five times over 12f (four on firm), but St Nicholas Abbey beat her 2 1/4 l over 12f on good.
St Nicholas Abbey, a noted fast ground horse, beat Gentildonna, another fast ground horse, which suggest to me she was a little below his class.
He won the Coronation Cup winner at Epsom three times.

Kauto · 02-06-2018 10:07am

Gringo180 wrote: »

Zero chance Saxon Warriors best trip will be 1m4f. Honestly cant see him staying.

He's a certainty to stay 2M never mind 12F

diomed · 02-06-2018 10:24am

Kauto wrote: »

He's a certainty to stay 2M never mind 12F

Let's talk about his hurdling career later, after he bombs out today.

Slattsy · 02-06-2018 10:55am

The Pentagon at 50s will do for me each way.

Saxon Warrior could and should be a class above this shower.

FatRat · 02-06-2018 10:59am

I'm on The Young Rascal e/w. Also on Knight to Behold myself and I'm very happy with the 25 I got for him, even though this might drift further. I think generally anyone who fancies a horse that isn't the favourite is getting a very good price because of the skewed market. Im honestly baffled how Saxon can be 4/5 or less for this race. Best horse by the looks of things but in this type of race, over this distance - that is some reckless punting taking him at those odds.

People will laugh at this but I would only consider a bet if he was around 5/2 or higher. Would not be the most shocking result to me if he doesn't even place.

mailburner · 02-06-2018 11:28am

went with knight to behold ew at 20s hoping for a place only

I don't see what beats the fav either

supremenovice · 02-06-2018 11:59am

diomed wrote: »

I went for a stamina Derby, not a speed Derby.

Knight To Behold 22.34 €161.67 €3,450.10
Sevenna Star 75.63 €40.00 €2,985.25
Kew Gardens 86.70 €157.43 €13,491.67
The Pentagon 50.00 €6.00 €294.00

I tell you what - serious kahonies on you to put €157 on Kew Gardens at 86.70. I wouldnt put that on a 1/10 shot! Best of luck with it

akelly02 · 02-06-2018 12:05pm

Kauto wrote: »

Masar has no chance. Should be 50/1. Was keen in Newmarket last time and as with the majority of the boys in blue horses they go backwards after a start or two. Be amazed if this beats more than 1 or 2 home.

You really hate Applebys horses don’t you , it’s funny

diomed · 02-06-2018 12:07pm

supremenovice wrote: »

I tell you what - serious kahonies on you to put €157 on Kew Gardens at 86.70. I wouldnt put that on a 1/10 shot! Best of luck with it

Update
Knight To Behold 22.34 €161.67 €3,450.10
Sevenna Star 75.63 €40.00 €2,985.25
Kew Gardens 86.91 €167.98 €14,430.62
The Pentagon 50.00 €6.00 €294.00
Total €375.65

I am also betting Saxon Warrior to finish outside the top 4 (odds 1.19).
He wins or he flops.

diomed · 02-06-2018 12:12pm

I sent an e-mail to TurfTrax "why no Epsom going map?"
The going map is now displayed.

Epsom Derby 2018

Comments