Epsom Derby 2018

kiers47

https://twitter.com/rpbloodstock/status/1002939751761108992?s=19

antietam

The thing I took out of the Derby is how strong a stayer Dee Ex Bee looked he looks a Ledger horse big time and IMO nothing will beat him at Doncaster unless they burn him out going to the Curragh for the Derby.

Shemale

Shemale wrote: »

Havent seen any flat but some bookie saying Saxon Warrior is better than Nijinksy sounds ****ing mental

Bookie was ever so slightly wrong

Francie Barrett

Kauto wrote: »

Masar has no chance. Should be 50/1. Was keen in Newmarket last time and as with the majority of the boys in blue horses they go backwards after a start or two. Be amazed if this beats more than 1 or 2 home.

Oh dear :pac:

tryfix

After looking at the race again, Saxon Warrior stayed, ( even the commentator said he was staying on but it was too late ) he was traveling as well as any of them at the line without Ryan doing much on him at that stage..

He hit a big flat spot ( he previously hit a bit of flat spot in the RPT before the sight of Roaring Lion kicked his competitive buttons into action ) while Ryan was messing around and trying to get him out. Not sure whether the horse is thinking too much about racing at this stage or whether it was a mixture of a bad draw and poor riding instructions ( Aidan said that Ryan would be taking his time on him ). Also he could have avoided all that trouble by taking the clear route of darting into the rail ( which would have concentrated his mind ) instead of messing about in the centre of the track where he was left holding his head to one side like he was struggling a bit with the camber.

I'd fancy him at the Curragh in a rematch with the first three.

diomed

tryfix wrote: »

I popped into the bookies on the way home today and had a saver on Masar @ 18/1. I can't believe his price, maybe he's not working well at home?

He stuck to his guns well in third in the Guineas, he's bred to stay which might explain why he struggled in the Guineas and he has the golden number 10 draw which means that he can get a good early position which is a huge advantage this week at Epsom. Wild Illusion showed that the stable is in reasonable form.

The number 10 draw only worked when they filled the inner rails stalls with ten horses from 1967 to 2010.
In 2018 they put two horses in the stalls on the inside rail (stall 1), and ten horses in the outer stalls (stall 2).

Starting at 2011 the stall 10 advantage is gone, as stall 10 (draw 10) moves around.
Year / in inner stall 1 / in outer stall 2
2011 (6/7); 2012 (9/-); 2013 (6/6); 2014 (10/2); 2015 (7/5); 2016 (8/8); 2017 (9/9); 2018 (2/10)

The advantage previously was a horse breaking from 10 had free room between the two stalls machines and he and the other nine horses in stall machine 1 (inner) could charge as a group towards the outer rail and block off the four or five in the outer stalls.
The biggest winner from this was stall 10 (8 wins), and the biggest losers were stall 10 and 11 to his immediate right (0 wins each).

Today stalls 1 and 2 were probably very slightly disadvantaged.

Francie Barrett

Watched the replay a few times now. Saxon Warrior was probably not good enough, but it did have excuses. The draw was clearly a minor inconvenience. Getting stuck behind Dee Ex Bee for a few strides obviously will have cost it a little as well. I also don't think it liked the track either, it didn't seem to run true in the last two furlongs (look at the head carriage). With all that said though, it ran alongside Masar as they came around the bend for the straight and it was clearly off the bridle first. That would be a real negative in my eyes about its staying prowess.

It will be interesting to see where Saxon Warrior goes next. O'Brien has suggested the Irish Derby. It's a less complicated track with a draw that will have less bias, in theory it should have a better chance on it.

diomed

My adjusted comment in running for Saxon Warrior

"Stumbled leaving stalls, in touch in midfield, 6th straight, closed to track leaders when not clear run and hampered 3f out, kept in by Oisin Murphty on Roaring Lion, who Ryan Moore belittled in a stewards enquiry last year shown on television and this was payback in spades *, effort over 2f out, no impression in 5th and hung left over 1f out, kept on to go 4th inside final furlong, no threat to leaders (op 8/11) as the horse was overhyped.

* Oisin Murphy lost winner, got 8-day ban & Ryan Moore jibe at Goodwood: "I know the horse well, he's not strong enough to keep it straight."

Corben Dallas

Poor ride ...(again) from Ryan Moore. He was unlucky in running, with no clear path given to the horse>>> the jockey made wrong calls and never got a pitch from which to give a chance for the horse to win.

Its Jockeys main job to manoeuvre, jostle cajole and if necessary wrestle to fight to give the horse a pitch/platform from which the horse could win if he's good enough.
Ryan Moore did none of this. (<< successfully get the horse into clear(ish) run in a straight line as is possible)

He made several wrong decisions leading to him being checked at least twice, horse was given no chance.

1m4f maybe too long for Saxon Warrior and RM also eased off a bit in last furlong.

He has form in turning in poor rides in Classics,(>>US Army Ranger?). I would not give him the ride if I could choose from other jockeys.

At just to prove the 1st point,Dee EX Bee cut in on Saxon Warrior just when it was 'go' time, baulked SW and then ran on into a strong 2nd, tracking same pace as winner until Masar stretched margin in last 30ft.