Severe Winter Weather, Snow/Ice - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards) READ MOD NOTE POST #1

cnocbui · 24-02-2018 1:20pm

Not even the Med escapes the Beast!

Kermit.de.frog · 24-02-2018 1:23pm

Snow showers start coming on to east coast Tuesday evening and overnight...

monty_python · 24-02-2018 1:24pm

Can people provide a short explanation when posting charts/models for the less knowledgeable people like myself .
It would be very much appreciated

mel.b · 24-02-2018 1:26pm

RobertKK wrote: »

Southern Finland. The -27C is at 1500 metres.

Brrrrrrr!
I’m heading to Abisko Sweden, -20today, -16 tomorrow. Later in the week i’m heading to the Lofoten Islands which is warmer due to the jet stream, but still comfortably in the minus range next week.

Pwindedd · 24-02-2018 1:31pm

Meanwhile in Cancun it's a balmy 24 degrees c at 7.30am. I'm raging I'm gonna miss this event ! But hope it comes off for ye all. Slightly worried about returning on 6th March. I didn't bring a coat. And have to get out to Garristown to collect my pooch... In a fiat Punto. Still no use worrying about things I cannot control I guess. Will be following the thread with interest...from my sun lounger... margarita in hand ;-)

Cloudio9 · 24-02-2018 1:32pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Snow showers start coming on to east coast Tuesday evening and overnight...

hmmmm Tuesday evening commute could be interesting in Dublin.

Kermit.de.frog · 24-02-2018 1:34pm

Cloudio9 wrote: »

hmmmm Tuesday evening commute could be interesting in Dublin.

Possible but I think that is a bit early for disruption, more likely the Wednesday morning commute.

Strangegravy · 24-02-2018 1:37pm

Typically with these Easterlies we just get the freezing cold and dry weather in the West. The roads aren't even that bad in the freezing cold, as they're usually so dry - but I suppose there's always black spots, mains leaks, field run offs etc to watch out for.

Nothing but extreme cold forecast so far for the start of the week in the West anyway, so I'd say just keep an eye on it here; if anything develops it'll be noted straight away.

George Sunsnow · 24-02-2018 1:39pm

There’s a noticeable blue haze now in the continental /UK air we are getting
It wasn’t there yesterday

thomasj · 24-02-2018 1:40pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

Possible but I think that is a bit early for disruption, more likely the Wednesday morning commute.

Just curious kermit, netweather has Dublin getting the snow showers from after midnight Monday night/Tuesday morning.

You reckon that might be a bit too early?

sjb25 · 24-02-2018 1:40pm

May Get my cold weather gear ready for work next week

LEIN · 24-02-2018 1:45pm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

There’s a noticeable blue haze now in the continental /UK air we are getting
It wasn’t there yesterday

Noticed that too.
The only good thing about the westerlies, they are nice and clean.

jamo2oo9 · 24-02-2018 1:45pm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

There’s a noticeable blue haze now in the continental /UK air we are getting
It wasn’t there yesterday

It was there yesterday. Very noticeable when the sun was setting.

uck51js9zml2yt · 24-02-2018 1:49pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Temperatures for Wednesday, Wednesday night, Thursday

Temperatures not rising pretty much anywhere above freezing from Tuesday evening until at least Saturday morning.

Don't forget the windchill

Wow..that is COLD!!

Kermit.de.frog · 24-02-2018 1:50pm

thomasj wrote: »

Just curious kermit, netweather has Dublin getting the snow showers from after midnight Monday night/Tuesday morning.

You reckon that might be a bit too early?

Sorry, I mean from a disruption perspective. Snow showers up until that point currently look scattered, isolated light to moderate (and may be soft hail, sleet at first).

davidsr20 · 24-02-2018 1:51pm

Does this event seem as bad as 47.63 or 82 in similarity to any of our experts ?

24-02-2018 1:51pm

Latest satellite imagery. Streamer activity apparent over the southern Baltic sea.

https://en.sat24.com/en

ZX7R · 24-02-2018 1:53pm

davidsr20 wrote: »

Does this event seem as bad as 47.63 or 82 in similarity to any of our experts ?

I would expect snow amounts simular to 82

sryanbruen · 24-02-2018 1:54pm

ZX7R wrote: »

I would expect snow amounts simular to 82

GFS 18z last night would be twice the amounts of 1982. :pac:

BLIZZARD7 · 24-02-2018 1:56pm

davidsr20 wrote: »

Does this event seem as bad as 47.63 or 82 in similarity to any of our experts ?

47 and 63 were long freezing winters- 82 was cold too but remembered for the major snow event in early January.

This week would have fit just fine into the colder parts of 47 and 63. The potential is also there for a huge snowfall later in the week (outside of streamer stuff in the east) but that is far from certain, just a situation to keep an eye on for now. If it comes off it could match or beat 82 in terms of depth though.

sryanbruen · 24-02-2018 1:56pm

I don't know if anybody looked at the UKMO long range update today but my is it a cracker of an update! They seem to show no agreement on the GFS bringing milder conditions. The GFS OP is on its own.

UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Mar 2018 to Saturday 10 Mar 2018:
March will begin very cold with sunshine and snow showers, these continuing to bring some accumulations especially across eastern parts. Friday could see heavier and disruptive snow developing across southern and some central areas, combined with strong to gale force easterly winds, leading to blizzard conditions. However, there is a lot of uncertainty with this. Thereafter, it is likely to remain very cold through early March with further snow showers in the east and southeast. The best of the sunshine is likely in the west, but all areas will feel bitterly cold in strong winds with a significant wind chill. Overnight frost will be widespread and severe in places. At times, it may turn more unsettled and less cold across the west and southwest.

UK Outlook for Sunday 11 Mar 2018 to Sunday 25 Mar 2018:
The start of this period is likely to remain very cold across much of the UK, with bitterly cold easterly winds giving a significant wind chill. There will continue to be a risk of snow across southern, eastern and some central areas, but in the north and west it should be drier. Frosts will continue to be widespread and severe in places. As we head towards the middle of March it may turn more unsettled and less cold with milder and wetter weather spreading up from the south or southwest. This may lead to further significant snow in places although this remains very uncertain. Northern areas may hang on to the colder weather well into March.

George Sunsnow · 24-02-2018 1:57pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

GFS 18z last night would be twice the amounts of 1982. :pac:

And I’d expect a lot colder under -8 uppers and 3 or 4 days of snow cover home made cold aswell as surface cold advection,less modified ,not that there’d be much in a gale

ZX7R · 24-02-2018 1:59pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

GFS 18z last night would be twice the amounts of 1982. :pac:

Just been a bit conservative sryanbruen, if we can get what we got in 82,this country will be at a standstill

sryanbruen · 24-02-2018 2:00pm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

And I’d expect a lot colder under -8 uppers and 3 or 4 days of snow cover home made cold aswell as surface cold advection,less modified ,not that there’d be much in a gale

The lowest minimum of January 1982 in Ireland was -14.6c at Birr on the 12th. The lowest in the UK was -27.2c on the 10th.

Ireland's minimum of that spell there has the potential to be beaten unlike the UK in my opinion.

Kermit.de.frog · 24-02-2018 2:01pm

The persistence of sub zero temperatures needs to be watched.

It's Tuesday evening until at least Friday sub zero for most if not all of the country.

Also locally likely to be colder, under snow fields too.

cnocbui · 24-02-2018 2:04pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Latest satellite imagery. Streamer activity apparent over the southern Baltic sea.

https://en.sat24.com/en

Look at the Bay of Biscay, it's like a cauldron pumping out cloud just for us.

George Sunsnow · 24-02-2018 2:05pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

The lowest minimum of January 1982 in Ireland was -14.6c at Birr on the 12th. The lowest in the UK was -27.2c on the 10th.

Ireland's minimum of that spell there has the potential to be beaten unlike the UK in my opinion.

Yeah that was in the high pressure after
I was talking about the uppers during the snowfall
Jan 1982 was the first time I experienced thunder snow

Vxlks · 24-02-2018 2:07pm

Reckon the east will get any thundersnow this time?

Reckless Abandonment · 24-02-2018 2:14pm

ZX7R wrote: »

Just been a bit conservative sryanbruen, if we can get what we got in 82,this country will be at a standstill

If we get 20% of 82 the country will be at a stand still.
8cm of snow will cause havoc although roads and cars are much better than in 82 the volume of traffic is much greater. And we just don't get enough of this weather to be good at dealing with it.
Ophelias has changed how the county will react to red warnings. If a red warning is issued everything will stop. Employers won't take the risk of opening. Have we gotten softer or smarter I don't know..

patneve2 · 24-02-2018 2:16pm

Well...at last looks like we are going to see some snow for sure! As mentioned by other posters my only worry for me living on the coast is the strength of the wind (remember March 2013 with that ENE gale and those fast passing and fragmented showers). Still, I expect at least 20 mm of precipitation between Tuesday/late Thursday and that's excluding the potential Friday event. Wednesday looks particularly tasty, winds could be a bit lighter compared to Thursday. In any case, predicting that snowfall totals will be highest a good 10 to 20 km in land. Showers should have no problem reaching the midlands. Bring it on

Severe Winter Weather, Snow/Ice - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards) ** READ MOD NOTE POST #1 **

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Severe Winter Weather, Snow/Ice - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards) READ MOD NOTE POST #1