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Winter 2017-18: Discussion

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,003 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Is eastern Europe definitely going to get a very cold period even if Ireland escapes it?

    Absolutely.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,709 ✭✭✭✭Cantona's Collars


    Weather ahead looks perfect to me, looks like plenty of dry and sunny weather. Bring it on

    Just caught the forecast at 11 and they said rain pushing in later.So fed up of this miserable damp everywhere.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,888 ✭✭✭✭Rock Lesnar


    Just caught the forecast at 11 and they said rain pushing in later.So fed up of this miserable damp everywhere.

    Yeah but from tomorrow on, it looks fairly good


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Approaching 14c and sunny here near Arklow


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,962 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    very mild here too and drying out, a welcome change.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,301 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Gfs has the easterly nearly affecting Barbados at times it pushes so far west :D
    That’s not going to happen
    I’d have my doubts about modeling that’s prone to spurts of super exaggeration

    Whilst it is a bit far out of this world, I wouldn’t totally doubt it given the record breaking reversed zonal winds that have never gone as extreme or as persistent than this.

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,301 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    I have bad feelings about the ECM 12z.

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,003 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Arpege 06z better than its 00z run at +72 hrs, better ridging North and a more south-north WAA angle. Small but important differences.

    arpegenh-0-72.png?6

    00z

    arpegenh-0-75.png?0


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,301 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Sunspot numbers have gone down again BLIZZARD7 by the way.

    https://twitter.com/solweather/status/965556583823388672

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    I have bad feelings about the ECM 12z.

    I expect that to revert back to monumental cold actually


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,111 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I expect that to revert back to monumental cold actually

    If it does, what's the odds the GFS will change for the worse then. Trolls all of them.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,520 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    If it does, what's the odds the GFS will change for the worse then. Trolls all of them.

    Its a solid run of the 12Z GFS anyway.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,148 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Did MT open the famous last epic winter thread we had ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,084 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Waiting for the ECM is killing me now....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,084 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Did MT open the famous last epic winter thread we had ?

    I think so. He certainly coined Greenland express at the time


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Its a solid run of the 12Z GFS anyway.

    A week today it has temperatures below freezing from south Dublin,all of Wicklow Wexford Carlow Waterford and east Kildare at 1pm in the day under a stiff easterly wind
    -1 to -3 widely at that time of the day in Wicklow and Wexford

    Baltic would be an understatement


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,640 ✭✭✭esposito


    Did MT open the famous last epic winter thread we had ?

    Please don’t open a thread yet. Still too early imo.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,520 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    A week today it has temperatures below freezing from south Dublin,all of Wicklow Wexford Carlow Waterford and east Kildare at 1pm in the day under a stiff easterly wind
    -1 to -3 widely at that time of the day in Wicklow and Wexford

    Baltic would be an understatement

    Very Cold indeed!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,301 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    esposito wrote: »
    Please don’t open a thread yet. Still too early imo.

    Yeah, just look at this thread as an example - which I had never seen a point of being made in the first place at the time.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057825497

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,148 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,520 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Yeah, just look at this thread as an example - which I had never seen a point of being made in the first place at the time.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057825497

    Ah I think it was necessary. No point clogging up the winter thread with such a large amount of discussion, even 22 pages is alot.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,301 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Ah I think it was necessary. No point clogging up the winter thread with such a large amount of discussion, even 22 pages is alot.

    Large amount of discussion of false hype when it was going to be normal frosts all along. The zonal winds were far too strong. Stratosphere was too cold. NAO was positive.

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,187 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    IMHO It’s too early yet folks.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,003 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    I think we will be safe by Wednesday morning runs if this continues to grow in support, some really serious cold and snow incoming if the GFS/ICON/GEM 12z's are right - on par with the coldest days of 2010 and possibly feeling colder with extreme wind chill.

    12z ECM and every run tomorrow to get out of the way first- don't expect plain sailing...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    I think this is going to happen
    But please no special thread for it until Friday because that’s when it’s going to be sub 120 and probably at 96 hrs
    We’ll have more clarity on what to expect and better guesses at impacts
    I suspect it will be a very long thread and one of quite a few


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,301 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    I suspect it will be a very long thread and one of quite a few

    As long as there's pics, I don't care :D.

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,111 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre



    About right. If it's showing at 48 hours then start a thread about it. If anyone starts a thread before then it should be wiped:p


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,148 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Well at Sub 120 hours it goes from FI thread into here or :eek::eek::eek: its own thread :eek::eek::eek:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,003 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    I think this is going to happen
    But please no special thread for it until Friday because that’s when it’s going to be sub 120 and probably at 96 hrs
    We’ll have more clarity on what to expect and better guesses at impacts
    I suspect it will be a very long thread and one of quite a few

    I suspect by Friday the coldest Air will be at +48 to +72 hours out :cool:


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,301 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    I'm just looking through old threads like this whilst I await for exciting news or beasterly, gives me goosebumps man!

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056102346&page=5

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



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