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02-01-2018, 20:38   #1
arctictree
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Cold Spell Phase 1 Discussion from 6th/7th January

OK, who's going to start the thread? Fri/Sat looks very cold and snowy for the east on all models.
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02-01-2018, 20:45   #2
Billcarson
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Cold Spell Phase 1 Discussion from 6th/7th January

Don't want to get ahead of myself but any snow that settles Fri/ sat could hang around for awhile.
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02-01-2018, 20:49   #3
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Cold Spell Phase 1 Discussion from 6th/7th January

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Originally Posted by arctictree View Post
OK, who's going to start the thread? Fri/Sat looks very cold and snowy for the east on all models.
Looking colder but not snowy, there's a brief window on Saturday before the airmass stabilises and pressure rises but temps will likely be too high during the day for any worthwhile snow accumulation.

After that high pressure looks like taking over so likely cold and sunny with maybe coastal flurries.

All subject to change obviously but that's what it looks like at the minute
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02-01-2018, 21:03   #4
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Cold Spell Phase 1 Discussion from 6th/7th January

Imo looks like a 24 HR window for snow,Fri evening- sat evening. I would think it should be cold enough for snow accumulation during the day on Saturday imo. Not that im expecting to be buried in it or anything. But a ne wind in Jan should deliver something to the east.
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02-01-2018, 21:03   #5
Kermit.de.frog
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Cold Spell Phase 1 Discussion from 6th/7th January

By popular demand.

I think we need to split discussion as there is too much uncertainty for early next week.

There will probably be a drier phase 2. There may not be a phase 3.

Very cold Sat/Sun with some snow and graupel showers in the east on Sat night and into Sunday.

Severe frost and icy stretches also.

*I'll update OP with charts shortly

More as we get it. The "beast in the east", Georgie Sunsnow, will keep you all updated

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 02-01-2018 at 21:15.
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02-01-2018, 22:34   #6
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Originally Posted by Kermit.de.frog View Post
By popular demand.

I think we need to split discussion as there is too much uncertainty for early next week.

There will probably be a drier phase 2. There may not be a phase 3.

Very cold Sat/Sun with some snow and graupel showers in the east on Sat night and into Sunday.

Severe frost and icy stretches also.

*I'll update OP with charts shortly

More as we get it. The "beast in the east", Georgie Sunsnow, will keep you all updated
Am I right in thinking that on Fri night / Sat morning the band of precipitation to the SW could give a few of us down here a nice start to this spell (before attention turns to the east coast)?
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02-01-2018, 22:38   #7
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I'm ready:

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02-01-2018, 22:59   #8
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I'm ready:

The one on the left will be gone when the ECM switches to the GFS after the morning runs and the item on the right will be on ebay by breakfast time.
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02-01-2018, 23:03   #9
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There’s lots of interesting cold flavored weather POTENTIAL dangled in front of us possibly in the next fortnight
Best approach is to baby step it as models aren’t good at tying down details this far out,or even closer(as we saw again tonight) the position of anything is uncertain
The upcoming fortnight should pique interest though,a little excitement and hopefully a lot?
As I said in the FI thread a few days ago,an initial northeasterly just about has enough cold this weekend to pep wintry showers in the east
Missing ingredient is locked in cold over the UK which would help with a surface air cold feed
Whipping up too much Sea in a strong wind tends to wash out snow and you end up at the coast with sleet or hail

Against that The source at the w/end is a lower humidity lower dew point feed usually and A less modifiable track than what we get in off the Atlantic

The missing ingredients may come if this pattern change is sustained
I’d prefer more northeasterly air (rather than the likely easterly)but our high if the ECM is right wants to bring us something Ukrainian or Russian
Part 2 is the wait for that cold air to advect west and what it interacts with when it gets here
It’s not unusual in long fetch easterlies to eventually have disturbances later come out of the Baltic’s somewhere and head west
We can’t say that’s what we’ll have
There may be false starts
I’d be surprised if there’s nothing out of this but obviously that’s possible but it’s not my hunch
All to play for
Comment away
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02-01-2018, 23:24   #10
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Beast Beast Beast
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03-01-2018, 00:16   #11
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I'm ready:

After the scotch, your legs won't work, so you can just dump the show spikes right now
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03-01-2018, 01:02   #12
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After the scotch, your legs won't work, so you can just dump the show spikes right now
show shpikes, feckin show hashna shance agansh me shpikes
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03-01-2018, 01:09   #13
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I'm ready:

Got a slimmer set in dunes stores in 2010,just after the big freeze ended, never got to use them, on a positive side I was in dunes stores a month or two later and they had a basket full of them for less than a euro each, bought the lot and sent them to the in-laws in Poland
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03-01-2018, 04:22   #14
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Day 4 - UKMO

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03-01-2018, 06:23   #15
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earth.nullschool 05/01/2018

earth.nullschool 06/01/2018

earth.nullschool 07/01/2018
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