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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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JCX BXC

And the very last teaser as were gone into bonkers territory

Fairly solid run overall, few more of these and we'll be talking!

Villain

Quick nasty mspaint job but you get the idea

https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/965269686555377668

squarecircles

JCX BXC wrote: »

Beauty - Lovely low pressure system over Britanny delivering snow in a northeast wind.

That's akin to mapping a dream across the smnaptic area of your brain next Sunday.
I.e could snow just about anywhere,even cork,maybe.probably not though.

JCX BXC

leahyl wrote: »

Are you actually kidding me - grey all around Cork area on above chart :-(

Its a chart for the 1st of March. Being a few KM away from the snow in that chart is the least of your worries:D

JCX BXC

Beauty - Lovely low pressure system over Britanny delivering snow in a northeast wind.

gabeeg

GFS can't be relied on at all for detail on snow at this range, but the general picture seems to be pretty damn snowy. Particularly for the East.

JCX BXC

GFS actually bringing the beast forward

sryanbruen

GEM though with -18 uppers to the south of England :pac:.

JCX BXC

12z GFS rolling out, not looking too bad, looks like more potential than the 06z run to my untrained eye.

12Z

06Z

gabeeg

No work next Monday?

gfs-2-186.png?12

JanuarySnowstor

Still time for it to go pear shaped but with so many seasoned peeps calling this one I'm very confident. Remember minus 5 uppers from an Easterly is enough with low dewpoints and the gfs / ecm are going down as low as minus 12

If it does come off and bear in mind the US has had a very cold winter the global warming experts may be left scratching their heads....

If this is global warming bring it on!!

BLIZZARD7

Ensemble means - Very very strong signal from the ECM Ensembles /GEFS

patneve2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It was a projected easterly incursion (sub -15 850 hpa and super low 500 hpa height levels) that came down to the wire well within the more reliable timeframe and would have provided record breaking cold. At the last minute there was sudden cross model agreement to take it down in to the continent and it gave record breaking cold weather over large swathes and as far southwest as Spain and Portugal.

It was spectacular for them but we were left in a high pressure dominated no mans land.

Lessons were learned!

For many parts of the central med 2012 was a bit like our 2010... Some places at sea level on Italy's E coast got 1 meter of snow from sea effect showers (2 metres of powder above 500 metres asl!) and even Rome managed to get a 15cm fall (Rome is probably the least snowy euro capital after Lisbon).

Donegal Storm

I remember a 6 Nations game in Paris had to be cancelled right before kickoff because of a frozen pitch that week, eastern England also had severe cold with the sea freezing over in harbours. For us it ended up as a couple of bright frosty days but nothing more

Kermit.de.frog

It was a projected easterly incursion (sub -15 850 hpa and super low 500 hpa height levels) that came down to the wire well within the more reliable timeframe and would have provided record breaking cold. At the last minute there was sudden cross model agreement to take it down in to the continent and it gave record breaking cold weather over large swathes and as far southwest as Spain and Portugal.

It was spectacular for them but we were left in a high pressure dominated no mans land.

Lessons were learned!

Gaoth Laidir

What was this failed 2012 easterly? I don't remember.

pad199207

squarecircles wrote: »

If you want to keep your head in touch with reality,it will probably be 3 cold days with a diluted modified cold,with milder conditions out towards the west coast.

Usually I would agree with such a statement but to be honest I think maybe and just maybe this time it will be much more potent.

PukkaStukka

Interesting commentary here on NW on the SSW and it's impact and effect on the models, particularly with regard to the wild variations and uncertainty it's causing

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8740-sudden-stratospheric-warming-brings-weather-model-mayhem

sryanbruen

The GEFS 06z upper air temps for Dublin are a cracker

squarecircles

If you want to keep your head in touch with reality,it will probably be 3 cold days with a diluted modified cold,with milder conditions out towards the west coast.

mickger844posts

If there wasn't a SSW would we be taking these charts so seriously??? Still all too far out in FI for my liking. My gut tells me we are in for some sort of event but my head tells me wait and get these amazing charts at 96Hrs. Fantastic eye candy though

pad199207

Jesus if this ends up like 'that failed easterly' in 2012 it will be worse this time id say! Thats if it gets into the same timeframe as 2012.

BLIZZARD7

The east of the country is in sub -8c uppers for 7 days on this run...

Just to emphasize how unusual that would be, the second spell of December 2010 almost had 7 in a row except a day in the middle around the 20th.

I jumped back to 1963 and it never achieved it at any point either, it did however have multiple 5 day blocks of these temperatures.

On top of this, none of those spells were late february/early March.

BLIZZARD7

The sublime charts continue, the slightly more delayed nature of the ECM allows for a better angle of attack from the cold (shorter sea track) leaving us with less chance of short waves and some seriously deep cold - The 06z GFS has moved back towards this idea too

gfs-0-222.png?6

JCX BXC

GFS 00Z was very dissapointing in my opinion, never got the easterly going. The 06Z much better and more comforting though

Oneiric 3

ECM Op run at day 10:

And how the mean of the ensembles look at day 10.

Pissing cold rain here again with the ground bulging with super saturation. I am dreaming of days gone where easterlies like this used to dry out the ground so much that the soil would be rock hard. Don't disappoint me ECM, or there will be hell to pay.

Rebelbrowser

Well GFS, ECM and GEM (inter alia) all showing what we want to see this morning. Still big differences though. ECM and GEM have it colder with the incredible cold arriving sometime during Monday week. GFS has it ending that day for Ireland, a less cold easterly having landed this Friday coming.

M.T. Cranium

And then there's the 00z ECM run -- I assume this has frozen most readers in place.

It shows the -17 C at 850 mb into southeast England and -13 to Dublin.

I am just a reporter. My opinion means nothing.

(this is the link, but it resets to day three, you need to click on 240h)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=3&type=0&archive=0

BLIZZARD7

Later into the GFS run we end up dragging warm air in from the south due to the block being too far north and more importantly we lose the Genoa low- a feature that is absolutely required to sustain an easterly. Incredible synoptics from a northern hemisphere point of view- the SSW is having a massive impact.

BLIZZARD7

Rougies wrote: »

Yeah looking good, cold brought in earlier rather than the usual donkey chasing a frozen carrot on a stick into April.

Aha yeah - it's an evolution on the same theme, short waves popping up all over the place but that will all change, UKMO is different but very good also at +144hrs. Good start to the day so far.