FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

nagdefy

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Strat warming now starting to appear consistently on the GFS also -

At this stage that may be helpful for February:)

Kermit.de.frog

All aboard the Greenland express next week.

beefburrito

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Strat warming now starting to appear consistently on the GFS also -

That's looking really dark....I can hear the theme tune of the Omen...... ramping it up now.....yehawwww

booferking

Looking like we could get a dumping in parts next week i love cold zonal weather with tight isobars endless feed of snow showers the 850 uppers are -5 to -6 for 4 days and dam line sub 520 could be some nice snow depths before it all ends.

Dew points are excellent as well for 4 days. Looking forward to this just a couple of more runs then this is locked in my eyes.

kod87

booferking wrote: »

Looking like we could get a dumping in parts next week i love cold zonal weather with tight isobars endless feed of snow showers the 850 uppers are -5 to -6 for 4 days and dam line sub 520 could be some nice snow depths before it all ends.

Dew points are excellent as well for 4 days. Looking forward to this just a couple of more runs then this is locked in my eyes.

It would not surprise me if the uppers are in fact a few degrees higher than what the models are currently showing, we are still a week away and the models generally overstate how low the uppers are at this range. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Donegal Storm

Not to mention -4 to -6C from long fetch westerlies aren't gonna do much in the first place, looks like the usual high ground north and west event with maybe a few in the midlands seeing slushy snow. Squally hail showers along the west coast will likely be of more interest

Meteorite58

Current ECM 12Z run showing some windy weather next week and possibly stormy around Weds /Thurs.

850 hPa winds

booferking

29th Jan 2015 5inches at my location and all of ulster had a good covering quite similar to what is being shown on mods at the minute only this one is progged to last 2-3 days longer.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-31015587

https://fs.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2018_01/Screenshot_20180110-212815.png.decd2983e4190e326be53120923f48ab.png

George Sunsnow

booferking wrote: »

29th Jan 2015 5inches at my location and all of ulster had a good covering quite similar to what is being shown on mods at the minute only this one is progged to last 2-3 days longer.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-31015587

https://fs.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2018_01/Screenshot_20180110-212815.png.decd2983e4190e326be53120923f48ab.png

Rather uninspiring country wide though from a cursory glance at the threads on this forum even for much of the west if the 29th of January is the template
Ironically there was a brief covering in south Dublin versus just sleet in Galway and Kerry
Mountainy man was fed up of the snow up in the Sligo hills,it had been a cold few weeks in hilly regions

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057352912&page=17

booferking

George Sunsnow wrote: »

booferking wrote: »

29th Jan 2015 5inches at my location and all of ulster had a good covering quite similar to what is being shown on mods at the minute only this one is progged to last 2-3 days longer.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-31015587

https://fs.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2018_01/Screenshot_20180110-212815.png.decd2983e4190e326be53120923f48ab.png

Rather uninspiring country wide though from a cursory glance at the threads on this forum even for much of the west if the 29th of January is the template
Ironically there was a brief covering in south Dublin versus just sleet in Galway and Kerry
Mountainy man was fed up of the snow up in the Sligo hills,it had been a cold few weeks in hilly regions

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057352912&page=17

There where quite widespread snow events for some but as you know every event does not bring snow to all even in the coldest spells anyway 18z upgraded the 850s again.

munsterlegend

booferking wrote: »

There where quite widespread snow events for some but as you know every event does not bring snow to all even in the coldest spells anyway 18z upgraded the 850s again.

Are you at altitude booferking? It will be interesting to watch anyway though not too hopeful of anything substantial at lower levels anyway. There is usually something which goes wrong and it usually happens in the last 24 hours!

booferking

George Sunsnow wrote: »

booferking wrote: »

29th Jan 2015 5inches at my location and all of ulster had a good covering quite similar to what is being shown on mods at the minute only this one is progged to last 2-3 days longer.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-31015587

https://fs.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2018_01/Screenshot_20180110-212815.png.decd2983e4190e326be53120923f48ab.png

Rather uninspiring country wide though from a cursory glance at the threads on this forum even for much of the west if the 29th of January is the template
Ironically there was a brief covering in south Dublin versus just sleet in Galway and Kerry
Mountainy man was fed up of the snow up in the Sligo hills,it had been a cold few weeks in hilly regions

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057352912&page=17

Try looking for the upcoming cold spell Jan 2015 thread nobody would have been reporting in the Current weather conditions it would have been in cold spell thread. (ie)pics of snow

booferking

munsterlegend wrote: »

booferking wrote: »

There where quite widespread snow events for some but as you know every event does not bring snow to all even in the coldest spells anyway 18z upgraded the 850s again.

Are you at altitude booferking? It will be interesting to watch anyway though not too hopeful of anything substantial at lower levels anyway. There is usually something which goes wrong and it usually happens in the last 24 hours!

No I'm just well inland Tyrone cookstown 74mls.

Elmer Blooker

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Not to mention -4 to -6C from long fetch westerlies aren't gonna do much in the first place, looks like the usual high ground north and west event with maybe a few in the midlands seeing slushy snow. Squally hail showers along the west coast will likely be of more interest

Not exactly a long fetch westerly, this airflow is straight off the Greenland icecap rather than originating in the Canadian Arctic. Still, theres a lot of of ocean that will have a moderating effect.
Places west of the Shannon should see a covering with temperatures dropping like a stone in frequent and heavy wintry showers.

George Sunsnow

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Not exactly a long fetch westerly, this airflow is straight off the Greenland icecap rather than originating in the Canadian Arctic. Still, theres a lot of of ocean that will have a moderating effect.
Places west of the Shannon should see a covering with temperatures dropping like a stone in frequent and heavy wintry showers.

Yes looks better than 2015 on that fax,much better

booferking

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Not exactly a long fetch westerly, this airflow is straight off the Greenland icecap rather than originating in the Canadian Arctic. Still, theres a lot of of ocean that will have a moderating effect.
Places west of the Shannon should see a covering with temperatures dropping like a stone in frequent and heavy wintry showers.

Yes looks better than 2015 on that fax,much better

Found the thread for Jan 2015.

https://www.boards.ie/b/thread/2057368366/32?

Yep does look better than 2015 fingers crossed. ðŸ˜႒

nacho libre

booferking wrote: »

Found the thread for Jan 2015.

https://www.boards.ie/b/thread/2057368366/32?

Yep does look better than 2015 fingers crossed. #4242;

Yes 2015 is not the template. This so far looks much colder given the source. Lets hope it does not get downgraded in the mean time.
Though I don't see it lasting four days before turning to more mixed wintry precipitation.

Gaoth Laidir

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Not exactly a long fetch westerly, this airflow is straight off the Greenland icecap rather than originating in the Canadian Arctic. Still, theres a lot of of ocean that will have a moderating effect.
Places west of the Shannon should see a covering with temperatures dropping like a stone in frequent and heavy wintry showers.

That fetch from the southeast tip of Greenland to Belmullet is still over 2000 km. Looks like 850 air of down to below -15 °C and dewpoints around -6 to -9 will be coming off the land over the weekend, but the sea there is 5 °C, rising to 11 °C mid track. By the time it gets to us the ECM has 850 temps of only -4 or -5 at around 1200-1300 m and surface dewpoints above 0, with the bulk of the coldest upper levels (700 and 500 hPa) - and hence the heaviest convection - off to our north. For me it's another wishy washy northwesterly in store, snow on hills, especially in the north, but more mixed at lowest levels.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/166-w-529-n/temperature-850hpa/20180115-2100z.html

Shedbebreezy

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

That fetch from the southeast tip of Greenland to Belmullet is still over 2000 km. Looks like 850 air of down to below -15 °C and dewpoints around -6 to -9 will be coming off the land over the weekend, but the sea there is 5 °C, rising to 11 °C mid track. By the time it gets to us the ECM has 850 temps of only -4 or -5 at around 1200-1300 m and surface dewpoints above 0, with the bulk of the coldest upper levels (700 and 500 hPa) - and hence the heaviest convection - off to our north. For me it's another wishy washy northwesterly in store, snow on hills, especially in the north, but more mixed at lowest levels.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/166-w-529-n/temperature-850hpa/20180115-2100z.html

GFS looks more promising

nacho libre

The latest GFS has lower upper air temperatures and dew points low enough for snow to lay. If the GFS is correct there should be some snow at lower levels in the north and west by midweek. Although one caveat is the GFS sometimes can over do these parameters.

Gaoth Laidir

Shedbebreezy wrote: »

GFS looks more promising

nacho libre wrote: »

The latest GFS has lower upper air temperatures and dew points low enough for snow to lay. If the GFS is correct there should be some snow at lower levels in the north and west by midweek. Although one caveat is the GFS sometimes can over do these parameters.

Of course, the GFS. Stands for "Generates Fake Snow". I have little faith in it anymore.

squarecircles

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

That fetch from the southeast tip of Greenland to Belmullet is still over 2000 km. Looks like 850 air of down to below -15 °C and dewpoints around -6 to -9 will be coming off the land over the weekend, but the sea there is 5 °C, rising to 11 °C mid track. By the time it gets to us the ECM has 850 temps of only -4 or -5 at around 1200-1300 m and surface dewpoints above 0, with the bulk of the coldest upper levels (700 and 500 hPa) - and hence the heaviest convection - off to our north. For me it's another wishy washy northwesterly in store, snow on hills, especially in the north, but more mixed at lowest levels.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/166-w-529-n/temperature-850hpa/20180115-2100z.html

Rather a wishy wash north westerly than an easterly,they rarely provide any snowfall in the west.

Squally heavy hail showers beating off the window at night and cracks of thunder.potentially stormy too.bliss.

I'm all excited about the Greenland express next week,Choo chooo

Gaoth Laidir

squarecircles wrote: »

Rather a wishy wash north westerly than an easterly,they rarely provide any snowfall in the west.

Squally heavy hail showers beating off the window at night and cracks of thunder.potentially stormy too.bliss.

I'm all excited about the Greenland express next week,Choo chooo

Wee look like being too close to the jet. If it was a couple of degrees further south then the prospects would be better.

pistolpetes11

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Of course, the GFS. Stands for "Generates Fake Snow". I have little faith in it anymore.

Been here many many times before and I have to say your usually spot on when it comes to these situations ,

Hopefully it does deliver for the folks on the west coast , charts do look promising but that long long sea fetch will scupper 9 times out of 10

George Sunsnow

nacho libre wrote: »

The latest GFS has lower upper air temperatures and dew points low enough for snow to lay. If the GFS is correct there should be some snow at lower levels in the north and west by midweek. Although one caveat is the GFS sometimes can over do these parameters.

18z gfs’s are the last place to dredge FI for snow though
The more detailed analysis posted earlier by GL is concerning for snowfans but at that distance out into FI there will be many changes
I’d imagine sustained escapes of super cold out of NA would eventually lower mid Atlantic 850 temps still further
But we don’t have those
North America is warming up

Donegal Storm

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Not exactly a long fetch westerly, this airflow is straight off the Greenland icecap rather than originating in the Canadian Arctic. Still, theres a lot of of ocean that will have a moderating effect.
Places west of the Shannon should see a covering with temperatures dropping like a stone in frequent and heavy wintry showers.

Greenland to here across the mid Atlantic is a fairly long fetch over relatively mild water. I find in a lot of these situations the models eventually correct the jet slightly northwards as well so I see it ending up as our usual affair, probably with a mild sector in between as well rather than 3 days straight of mP airflow.

Parts of Cavan, Monaghan etc could get a covering of snow but for the most part it'll be high ground NW and a dusting at best elsewhere. I'd gladly be proven wrong!

Shedbebreezy

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Greenland to here across the mid Atlantic is a fairly long fetch over relatively mild water. I find in a lot of these situations the models eventually correct the jet slightly northwards as well so I see it ending up as our usual affair, probably with a mild sector in between as well rather than 3 days straight of mP airflow.

Parts of Cavan, Monaghan etc could get a covering of snow but for the most part it'll be high ground NW and a dusting at best elsewhere. I'd gladly be proven wrong!

You're forgetting Donegal, Donegal, unless you live by the coast. Derry and Tyrone.

patneve2

I'd also keep an eye out on thicknesses and 500 hPa temps as they can make a difference when it comes to snow. As we already know Atlantic cold is rarely productive here on the E coast and I would define a good W or NW snap as one where I get a few snow showers and perhaps a dusting of a cm or two. Nothing to get excited about but I'll take anything in these bleak times.

nacho libre

The more detailed analysis posted earlier by GL is concerning for snowfans but at that distance out into FI there will be many changes
I’d imagine sustained escapes of super cold out of NA would eventually lower mid Atlantic 850 temps still further
But we don’t have those
North America is warming up[/QUOTE]

It's a analysis based on one model while ignoring the other. He might well be right about the gfs, we'll see
The flow as currently depicted will have some potent arctic air in the mix, which should see some areas in the north and west, away from high ground, having modest accumlations of snow for a day or two before the airmass gets modified too much.

edit: Actually, to be fair, it's an analysis based on his own intuition and experience in his chosen field, with just a reference to the ECM, which echoes his own thoughts on next week. I hope he is wrong though:)

Gaoth Laidir

nacho libre wrote: »

The more detailed analysis posted earlier by GL is concerning for snowfans but at that distance out into FI there will be many changes
I’d imagine sustained escapes of super cold out of NA would eventually lower mid Atlantic 850 temps still further
But we don’t have those
North America is warming up

It's a analysis based on one model while ignoring the other. He might well be right about the gfs, we'll see
The flow as currently depicted will have some potent arctic air in the mix, which should see some areas in the north and west, away from high ground, having modest accumlations of snow for a day or two before the airmass gets modified too much.

edit: Actually, to be fair, it's an analysis based on his own intuition and experience in his chosen field, with just a reference to the ECM, which echoes his own thoughts on next week. I hope he is wrong though:)

I quoted the ECM as it's by far the best model imo, but several others are in agreement with it. The GFS consistently underestimates modification in cold outbreaks. It's an acknowledged bias.