FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

No work next Monday?

gfs-2-186.png?12

12z GFS rolling out, not looking too bad, looks like more potential than the 06z run to my untrained eye.

12Z

06Z

GEM though with -18 uppers to the south of England :pac:.

GFS actually bringing the beast forward

GFS can't be relied on at all for detail on snow at this range, but the general picture seems to be pretty damn snowy. Particularly for the East.

Beauty - Lovely low pressure system over Britanny delivering snow in a northeast wind.

https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/965269686555377668

leahyl wrote: »

Are you actually kidding me - grey all around Cork area on above chart :-(

Its a chart for the 1st of March. Being a few KM away from the snow in that chart is the least of your worries:D

squarecircles

JCX BXC wrote: »

Beauty - Lovely low pressure system over Britanny delivering snow in a northeast wind.

That's akin to mapping a dream across the smnaptic area of your brain next Sunday.
I.e could snow just about anywhere,even cork,maybe.probably not though.

Villain

Quick nasty mspaint job but you get the idea

And the very last teaser as were gone into bonkers territory

Fairly solid run overall, few more of these and we'll be talking!

ninebeanrows

We are on the brink,,,, only issue is the lead time, the real stuff doesn't arrive for 7 days.

The only major hiccup i can see is if a shortwave forms in the North Sea and disrupts the eastwards advection of the siberian airmass.

It must be said - if these charts do verify - it will be a once in a half century event.

joe199

Level heads needed lads good owl Irish weather won't give up the white gold to easily many more flip flops to come

squarecircles

joe199 wrote: »

Level heads needed lads good owl Irish weather won't give up the white gold to easily many more flip flops to come

It will go down every route to dullify,delay and drag it out, until it's on its knees and sadly gives in and gets its ticket and reluctantly heads west to Ireland,kicking it's heels in the Irish sea,before being given its marching orders and told it has to head west out into the north Atlantic kicking and screaming over the torturous mild Atlantic like a reluctant,disgusted teenager,being somewhere uncool,it doesn't want to be.

It's so strange to see the blue shading associated with the cold air mass reluctantly splurge out west over the Atlantic coastline.
It's a beautiful sight to see the misery of our climate reversed.

And ever so briefly everyone is reminded of our latitude on the earth and how ridiculously 'special' it is.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/965288298083209216

pad199207

ECM could be about to give us the two fingers

pad199207 wrote: »

ECM could be about to give us the two fingers

Yeah, very similar to the ICON 12z.

Donegal Storm

I'm sounding like a broken record at this stage but even today its still a full week before any real cold reaches us, as it has been for the past week. The trend all week has been for less amplification and less cold the closer we get to T0. Some spectacular charts and it does look like we'll be in an easterly or south easterly flow but nothing interesting is getting much closer

ffs

Donegal Storm wrote: »

I'm sounding like a broken record at this stage but even today its still a full week before any real cold reaches us, as it has been for the past week. The trend all week has been for less amplification and less cold the closer we get to T0. Some spectacular charts and it does look like we'll be in an easterly or south easterly flow but nothing interesting is getting much closer

Even 3-4 days ago there wasn't cold within a week, and I've not seen much taming, Infact much of the opposite.

However caution advised, and there's no point being emotional this far out at every up and down the charts throw out.

Kermit.de.frog

ECM just goes to show how fragile this actually is. Long way out yet but caution is required - no point getting your hopes up this far out.

I remember 2012 and the disaster that turned in to so quickly when it seemed so imminent.

Rougies

Latest ECM says head to the Med for snow @240hrs, -10C uppers over a 14C Tyrrhenian sea should produce some nice fat streamers for EDIT: Sardinia (not Sicily)! :pac:

I wouldn't get too worried about it yet, always gonna be a few scary wobbles from the models this far out. the overall picture still looks good

catrat12 wrote: »

What’s actually happening

The arguably best model in the world is saying that the cold blast is gonna miss us by a few hundred kilometers to our south

Most of the other models say we're going to get pummelled.

mickger844posts

All the decent charts were and for some models still in FI territory so wouldn’t be getting too hung up on the latest ECM output. The trend is always you’re friend.
I think some so called experts are getting carried away with what influence a SSW will have on our weather here. Record breaking as it is there is no guarantee it will bring the snow fest most in here crave. Nothing can be ruled out at this stage.

Darwin

catrat12 wrote: »

What’s actually happening

Potentially very cold from Monday week or thereabouts, but disagreement amongst the major weather models, so depending on which model you pick, we may get cold frosty nights or snowmagdden.

It does seem ECM 12z OP was an outlier in its ensembles. Could be better, could be worse.

typhoony

I think we'll have to wait until Wednesday to get clear picture of what is likely to happen, in the modern winter we've seen these charts slide south many times, there were a series of winters that brought snow to Greece where the high over Scandinavia sunk south west dragging the bitter cold away from our shores. beyond the potential easterly we do have a strong signal of a retrogressing high and a potent Northerly\Northeasterly

nacho libre

I can imagine how the toys are being strewn around the place over on netweather after the latest ECM run.
If it becomes a consistent trend and other models flip to that solution, then it's time to worry. The point about the snowy cold still being a week away is misleading, it was never really progged to get here sooner. However, the December 2012 easterly is a good reminder that the models can flip to a less a favourable outcome at the last minute. So I will not buy my ticket for the siberan express until it shows snowy cold within 48 hours.

M.T. Cranium

This far out, better to see a southward trend than north, south can only go so far while north can start an extinction event.