FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Shedbebreezy

Well to be fair he completely ruled out lowland snow for the slider last month and the last snow event we had when many low lying areas received lying snow and pics to support it. Let's wait and see.

MJohnston

Here's a model question - is there any reason the GFS is continued to be used as a signal of anything beyond the fact that it offers a broader range of charts for free compared to ECM? From the years I've followed this forum, I've found the GFS to be continually inaccurate even at very short ranges.

George Sunsnow

Shedbebreezy wrote: »

Well to be fair he completely ruled out lowland snow for the slider last month and the last snow event we had when many low lying areas received lying snow and pics to support it. Let's wait and see.

A different type of event though
That one was the result of stubborn embedded cold clashing on the edges with mobile heat
What FI models are picturing is a mobile cold which will all the time be mixing with and continually modified by ocean air which is a much different and easier I would think,predictable dynamic

Captain Snow

Scandi High flooding cold into Europe. Possible February weather coming for Ireland.

mahoney_j

Captain Snow wrote: »

Scandi High flooding cold into Europe. Possible February weather coming for Ireland.

What’s February weather !!!!!!

kod87

mahoney_j wrote: »

What’s February weather !!!!!!

He means the cold air spreading into Europe could eventually make it's way to us later this month or in February

JCX BXC

Hold your horses.....February?

George Sunsnow

I’m loving the ECM at 192 tonight,you’d swear that was a lump of polar vortex attacking from the northwest and with pressure rising over Greenland ,there’s oodles of opportunities once it passes through
But Ill say no more because I’ll jinx it like last time

nacho libre

Well i would have more faith in it when its not showing an easterly. If what you are suggesting comes off i will have to seriously consider taking a short holiday back home!



what a tasty looking chart.

gabeeg

The GFS ushers in a new ice-age, deep into FI

Captain Snow

gabeeg wrote: »

The GFS ushers in a new ice-age, deep into FI

nacho libre

The ECM looks good for some further colder shots, but by day nine the pv is rearing its big head over Canada. We have to just hope the GFS is on to something, sticks with it, and that the ecm catches on to it in future runs.

Billcarson

Hmm the models don't look as good this morning for cold. The second half of Jan curse about to strike again? ( Little in the way of decent cold spells in the second half of Jan for many years,)

Elmer Blooker

Might as well get this thread going again.
After what will be a disturbed week the Atlantic seems to run out of steam and become very slack and sluggish with not much happening by next weekend .... and THAT high seems to be weaker. Theres very cold air over Europe which the Atlantic will be unable to blast away by the look of this chart. Quiet sun, quiet Atlantic?
Not a great chart but not raging zonality either!

edit: The Atlantic does get more active in later runs buts that way out in FI. The has to be a pattern change sooner or later from this disturbed spell that has gone on for weeks?

BLIZZARD7

Friday/Saturday might present a snow event in the form of another slider according to the ECM - one to keep an eye on anyway given the changes we are seeing just +48 hours out.

JCX BXC

If the ECM is saying it, well that seems very unusual.

Perhaps something we should definitely keep an eye on?

amandstu

Is there some kind of a regular pattern whereby weather systems seem to be centred on the South tip of Greenland ?

Is it just these past few week s especially and just a coincidence? These strong winds almost seem to be continuously forming there and are really really strong there(Some people do live there ;what must it be like for them?)

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/01/16/0600Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-27.01,52.49,2073/loc=-13.810,54.773

nagdefy

Weather moving from west to east (as usual!) on the models i've looked at for the next 10 days or so.

The GFS has been showing this potential storm on a few runs now. A week out or so.

Donegal Storm

amandstu wrote: »

Is there some kind of a regular pattern whereby weather systems seem to be centred on the South tip of Greenland ?

Is it just these past few week s especially and just a coincidence? These strong winds almost seem to be continuously forming there and are really really strong there(Some people do live there ;what must it be like for them?)

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/01/16/0600Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-27.01,52.49,2073/loc=-13.810,54.773

Yep, it's called the Icelandic Low and even has its own wikipedia page!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Icelandic_Low

To the best of my knowledge its caused by extreme cold air from Canada and Greenland interacting with the relatively warmer water in the north Atlantic to whip up low pressure systems

Elmer Blooker

.... and it goes on and on and on and on ......
Are we ever going to see a pattern change? Quite incredible!
Here are some staggering climate stats that I just cannot get my head around.
We all agree that the Azores high is a permanent fixture every winter and remains in situ for weeks/months on end, so here are the average rainfall amounts for Dublin and the Azores for the winter months, Dec-Feb.
Dublin: 178mm or 7.12 ins.
Azores: 328mm or 13 ins.
How the hell can it rain twice as much there as it does where I am?



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azores#Climate

Rebelbrowser

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

.... and it goes on and on and on and on ......
Are we ever going to see a pattern change? Quite incredible!
Here are some staggering climate stats that I just cannot get my head around.
We all agree that the Azores high is a permanent fixture every winter and remains in situ for weeks/months on end, so here are the average rainfall amounts for Dublin and the Azores for the winter months, Dec-Feb.
Dublin: 178mm or 7.12 ins.
Azores: 328mm or 13 ins.
How the hell can it rain twice as much there as it does where I am?



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azores#Climate

I saw this mornings models and thought of you!

Elmer Blooker

The trend from all models at the moment is for the Azores to relocate to Europe. I'm seeing (not predicting!) an unusually mild February ahead similar to 1998.

mahoney_j

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

The trend from all models at the moment is for the Azores to relocate to Europe. I'm seeing (not predicting!) an unusually mild February ahead similar to 1998.

I’ll gladly take mild but would prefer dry !!!

nagdefy

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

The trend from all models at the moment is for the Azores to relocate to Europe. I'm seeing (not predicting!) an unusually mild February ahead similar to 1998.

Mild dry Februaries like 1998 bring payback when you least want it. Remember the frost and snow in April during the Good Friday talks signing? And that summer was wet and cool. I rather see rain in the winter. Take winter 2013-2014, wet and windy. Followed by a good dry summer, warm until August. Winter 1994-1995 was wet, followed by the summer of 1995..

sryanbruen

Hold on, hold on, hold on.

I just want to explain myself here with the FI charts given what I've said in the Winter discussion thread which may have caused some confusion. Over my years of model watching since I began in 2014, usually once we get to the milder spell, the models start trying to find the next change in the pattern again. Therefore, I don't think this incoming mild spell is going to last as long as they're letting on. Also, it only takes a wave of amplification in the Atlantic or the Siberian High to show their hand more then the prospects from the models look completely different again.

We've gone past what is the windiest spell of the entire Winter season on average, late December and early January. This means the Atlantic should be running out of steam into February, and especially given how the zonal winds are expected to take a plunge along with the Polar Vortex being dramatically disturbed.

It all looks messy but we'll wait and see what Mother Nature has up her sleeve waiting for us in the foreseeable future and the rest of the Winter 2017/18 season into early Spring.

nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

Hold on, hold on, hold on.

I just want to explain myself here with the FI charts given what I've said in the Winter discussion thread which may have caused some confusion. Over my years of model watching since I began in 2014, usually once we get to the milder spell, the models start trying to find the next change in the pattern again. Therefore, I don't think this incoming mild spell is going to last as long as they're letting on. Also, it only takes a wave of amplification in the Atlantic or the Siberian High to show their hand more then the prospects from the models look completely different again.

We've gone past what is the windiest spell of the entire Winter season on average, late December and early January. This means the Atlantic should be running out of steam into February, and especially given how the zonal winds are expected to take a plunge along with the Polar Vortex being dramatically disturbed.

It all looks messy but we'll wait and see what Mother Nature has up her sleeve waiting for us in the foreseeable future and the rest of the Winter 2017/18 season into early Spring.

Did M.T Craniums winter forecast call for a mild Februrary? In a la nina winter it may well be we end up with a quite cold March.
With your post in mind, if we think back to three days before the start of the epic Winter of 1947, who would have said, based on that chart, we would get a winter of the century?
So it just shows we never know. If the monster Russian high were to link up with the arctic high we could be laughing and the pv would start to cry.
Obviously it's very unlikely to happen, though- but obviously in those rare winters everything goes just right from the perspective of a snow enthusiast.

nacho libre

And the GFS is at it again in deep fi(teasing a easterly)- carlsberg must have taken over the model for this run:)
It will be back to more sobering ouput in its next run, no doubt.

nagdefy

We are really overdue a February easterly. They were almost nailed on in the 1980s.

I remember so many Februaries around Valentine's Day with either snow or icicles hanging from the windows and slates of out houses on the farm.

2010 was really a North Easterly and it was December. Really 2009 was the last easterly we had and it was short lived. The Scandi high seems to be nearly a thing of the past. I wonder why.. If we could get a big 1055mb in place... February was always the time..and bingo!

Elmer Blooker

This kind of muck is looking very likely now unfortunately.
Maybe get a few weeks of this horror show and as Nadgefy says we might get lucky in February.
I had a look at Netweather this morning to see what the "big shots" have to say for themselves but they are nowhere to be seen, the MOD thread has been on the same page for NINE hours now! Fancy that on the 18th of January!

George Sunsnow

Scandinavia highs are more common in March or April now ie a nuisance

Aidan mcGivern on his UKMO Facebook video last night suggested that the new mild pattern might only last for about 10 days according to signals
He gave no more detail
Obviously given what we know about FI
Large mug of salt with that!