Leo is the new king of Ireland.

Edward M · 25-01-2018 8:35am #1

Latest poll puts Leo in the realms of Bertie like popularity.
Despite being down 2 points themselves, Fine Gael still by far the most popular party.
Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein static.
I am just pondering that this might help settle any election notions the opposition might have.
I cant see FF pulling the plug any time soon based on this poll?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/varadkar-s-approval-jumps-to-60-as-voters-show-their-satisfaction-1.3367548?mode=amp

piplip87 · 25-01-2018 8:45am

Leos approval rating in a large part is down to his handling of Brexit. Irish people love sticking it to the Brits and DUP. This along with His comments about uniting Ireland, makes him the most republican leaning leader of FG in decades too. His retracted comments about being Taoiseach for those who get up early in the morning still resonates with those who are being fleeced for tax.

People in Dublin and the big cities are generally working again, when people are working they are less likely to go to the SF, PBP types as they do not want to be shafted on tax.

Manach · 25-01-2018 9:56am

This month marks the 225th of the execution of the French King during their revolution. The popularity of royalty has a short shelf life. Likewise the economic basis of Mr. Varakar's support is built on a basis that is counter to that parties key stakeholder goal, a larger state that supports their clients via largess dervived from the tax base. This is an unsupportable model that will fracture social cohesion. There is nothing more hide bound that the progressive narrative when it comes to idealised countries such as Sweden. Based on the FG expansionist social model, Ireland under Mr. Varaker is becoming what is wished for.

seamus · 25-01-2018 10:00am

piplip87 wrote: »

Leos approval rating in a large part is down to his handling of Brexit. Irish people love sticking it to the Brits and DUP. This along with His comments about uniting Ireland, makes him the most republican leaning leader of FG in decades too. His retracted comments about being Taoiseach for those who get up early in the morning still resonates with those who are being fleeced for tax.

People in Dublin and the big cities are generally working again, when people are working they are less likely to go to the SF, PBP types as they do not want to be shafted on tax.

I generally disagree with a lot of this piplip

Brexit handling has certainly gone down well with him, but overall it's the economy. We're approaching full employment, people have money in their pockets, and the Government, despite being a minority, seems pretty capable of weathering rough seas like Brexit negotiations.

I think you have the "early in the morning" thing backwards. Those most irritated by it were those who pay the least tax; welfare recipients, lower waged, students, etc. Those who pay the most tax would have found his comment heartening - because they're the ones who "get up early in the morning".

There's a certain cohort of journalists who are just waiting to pounce on any speech and analyse it for potential "insensitivity" and then run with that. The perpetually outraged are easily stirred up - one comment I read asked, "What about those of us who don't start till midday?!". And if someone's comprehension of language is that poor, they're a lost cause.

Likewise the comments yesterday about mortgage deposits turned out to be a non-issue; outrage merchants doing their best to stir up outrage over honest and truthful commentary.

I think most people see through this nonsense tbh.

Sleeper12 · 25-01-2018 10:08am

He was way down because of his handling of Francis Fitzgerald and bounced back due to Brexit. There's a bit of luck there. Fingers crossed he can build on these figures

johnnyskeleton · 25-01-2018 10:13am

I wonder was this before the borrow your deposit from your parents debacle? To be honest I think that scandal is a little overblown but Irish people can get very angey over stuff like that. So I'd expect the next poll to be less favourable to him.

The poll also suggests Micheal Martin is up a bit too. Maybe his plain talking on abortion against some members of his party has stood to him.

Gerry for president also seems a bit remote as well given these figures

johnnyskeleton · 25-01-2018 10:16am

Sleeper12 wrote: »

He was way down because of his handling of Francis Fitzgerald and bounced back due to Brexit. There's a bit of luck there. Fingers crossed he can build on these figures

I dont think the Francis Fitzgerald issue made much of a difference. The medias outrage was in stark contrast to most peoples indifference. I think people are sick of tribunals, whistleblowers etc and arent all that fussed about things like lying to the dail. Its probably not good for accountability, but people care about bread and butter issues far more.

road_high · 25-01-2018 10:18am

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

I wonder was this before the borrow your deposit from your parents debacle? To be honest I think that scandal is a little overblown but Irish people can get very angey over stuff like that. So I'd expect the next poll to be less favourable to him.

The poll also suggests Micheal Martin is up a bit too. Maybe his plain talking on abortion against some members of his party has stood to him.

Gerry for president also seems a bit remote as well given these figures

You don't say...as for being a "scandal"? OK...

B-D-P-- · 25-01-2018 10:45am

Really,, he's been the most popular Taoiseach since Bertie Ahern??

So he's more popular than Brian Cowen and Enda Kenny,, Not that bloody hard...

blanch152 · 25-01-2018 10:57am

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

I wonder was this before the borrow your deposit from your parents debacle? To be honest I think that scandal is a little overblown but Irish people can get very angey over stuff like that. So I'd expect the next poll to be less favourable to him.

The poll also suggests Micheal Martin is up a bit too. Maybe his plain talking on abortion against some members of his party has stood to him.

Gerry for president also seems a bit remote as well given these figures

The only scandalous thing about it is that a politician gets criticised for telling the truth.

Edward M · 25-01-2018 11:14am

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

I wonder was this before the borrow your deposit from your parents debacle? To be honest I think that scandal is a little overblown but Irish people can get very angey over stuff like that. So I'd expect the next poll to be less favourable to him.

The poll also suggests Micheal Martin is up a bit too. Maybe his plain talking on abortion against some members of his party has stood to him.

Gerry for president also seems a bit remote as well given these figures

I gather it was conducted before that borrowing remark, Monday I think.
A lot of hoo haa about that remark of course, but its not as bad as people think, quite a few agree with him on it, even though it does sound a bit condescending.
It must be gruelling to the opposition though that he is so popular, despite some controversial statements, even prior to that one.

Sierra Oscar · 25-01-2018 12:55pm

I think the Brexit negotiations undoubtedly are playing a big part in bolstering Leo's support, but I think it's more than that. I'm not a supporter of his but I'll be straight up and say that everyone is talking about him. I've non-political friends who are talking about Leo, some love him some hate him. But everyone is talking about him and that's always a good thing for a political leader.

He represents a 'new generation' coming to power in Ireland and I think that's feeding into his popularity.

Edward M wrote: »

I cant see FF pulling the plug any time soon based on this poll?

I think the last few months have shown that FF will bend over backwards to prevent an election, which is a problem for them as they're coming across as being weak at a time when they're meant to be powerful under the Confidence and Supply Arrangement.

However why are we assuming that it will be FF that will bring down the Government? What's to stop Leo calling a snap election to consolidate his position? I reckon it would pay off, so long as he doesn't follow Theresa May's disastrous strategy of having a long and drawn out campaign.

seamus · 25-01-2018 1:06pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

However why are we assuming that it will be FF that will bring down the Government? What's to stop Leo calling a snap election to consolidate his position? I reckon it would pay off, so long as he doesn't follow Theresa May's disastrous strategy of having a long and drawn out campaign.

Certainly this was the talk in December with the Fitzgerald issue, but we're way past this now.

The numbers are currently swinging in nobody's favour except FG's. And Fine Gael know this, so they can use it as leverage. Between the referendum on the 8th being in touching distance, and the importance of dealing with Brexit (and Trump to lesser extent), the people don't want an election now and whoever pulls the plug will take the blame. FF bail and FG will capitalise on that, so Martin is somewhat trapped. Even though FG require FF to maintain their power, FF currently have no real power over the Government.

I suspect we could be looking at an election in the summer. If the referendum goes well (and decisively so), and Brexit talks start yielding actual legal documents with signatures on them, Leo might consider that the best time to consolidate some power and get a FG majority.

draiochtanois · 25-01-2018 1:09pm

This post has been deleted.

Sierra Oscar · 25-01-2018 1:23pm

seamus wrote: »

Certainly this was the talk in December with the Fitzgerald issue, but we're way past this now.

The numbers are currently swinging in nobody's favour except FG's. And Fine Gael know this, so they can use it as leverage. Between the referendum on the 8th being in touching distance, and the importance of dealing with Brexit (and Trump to lesser extent), the people don't want an election now and whoever pulls the plug will take the blame. FF bail and FG will capitalise on that, so Martin is somewhat trapped. Even though FG require FF to maintain their power, FF currently have no real power over the Government.

I suspect we could be looking at an election in the summer. If the referendum goes well (and decisively so), and Brexit talks start yielding actual legal documents with signatures on them, Leo might consider that the best time to consolidate some power and get a FG majority.

I don't really buy the argument that people don't want an election though. People never really want an election, but at the end of the day when one is called people will come out and vote for the party they feel best represents them and that will be that.

I think the outcome of the last UK General Election is shaping the narrative too much here in relation to the possibility of an election and the so called 'blame game'. Theresa May and the Conservatives were hammered because they had a disastrous campaign. It was comically funny, they made serious gaffes day in and day out. To make matters worse they bizarrely went for a long campaign, which undermines the very idea of a snap election, which amplified their gaffes as the campaign went on.

I don't think Leo or FG would repeat that mistake. We've had snap elections here before, it wouldn't be anything new.

seamus wrote: »

I suspect we could be looking at an election in the summer. If the referendum goes well (and decisively so), and Brexit talks start yielding actual legal documents with signatures on them, Leo might consider that the best time to consolidate some power and get a FG majority.

I think you're probably right. An election in June is a real possibility.

Although I wonder what odds you'd get on their being a General Election on the same day of the referendum? Unlikely, but I wouldn't rule anything out.

johnnyskeleton · 25-01-2018 2:16pm

blanch152 wrote: »

The only scandalous thing about it is that a politician gets criticised for telling the truth.

Maybe, but there are no votes in "truth". There are a lot of people dissatisfied with the housing market, especially in Dublin and its not just the socialist voters. There are lots of middle class working people with aspirations of home ownership who are unwilling or unable to hit up their parents for a deposit.

I also take the point that his comments were taken somewhat out of context, but the facr remains that he has given his critics a soft pass that wont go down well with a lot of people

recedite · 25-01-2018 4:47pm

seamus wrote: »

I think you have the "early in the morning" thing backwards..

I think you may have misunderstood piplip's comments. "Resonates" is not considered a bad thing. Mind you, I could be picking it up wrong myself. Your post certainly got all the thanks, despite apparently being a misunderstanding.

piplip87 wrote: »

..His retracted comments about being Taoiseach for those who get up early in the morning still resonates with those who are being fleeced for tax.

People in Dublin and the big cities are generally working again, when people are working they are less likely to go to the SF, PBP types as they do not want to be shafted on tax.

seamus · 25-01-2018 5:03pm

recedite wrote: »

I think you may have misunderstood piplip's comments. "Resonates" is not considered a bad thing. Mind you, I could be picking it up wrong myself. Your post certainly got all the thanks, despite apparently being a misunderstanding.

Hah, you're right. I have no idea why my brain interpreted it like that.

FrancieBrady · 25-01-2018 7:51pm

Judging Leo on his start as Taoiseach I cannot help but feel that he is not really in touch with the country in the main. Several ill judged comments he has made lead me to that conclusion.
I don't think that is gonna play well when the honeymoon period runs out. He may not be king for long.

blanch152 · 26-01-2018 1:25am

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Judging Leo on his start as Taoiseach I cannot help but feel that he is not really in touch with the country in the main. Several ill judged comments he has made lead me to that conclusion.
I don't think that is gonna play well when the honeymoon period runs out. He may not be king for long.

That is wishful thinking on your part.

Varadkar recognises that to be in government now a vote of 35-38% makes it nearly impossible for a government to be formed without him. Therefore he doesn't need to appeal to the country in the main, he only needs to appeal to a certain constituency.

It is a bit like the way that SF and AAA/PBP only appeal to a limited audience. Unfotunately for them, their audience is much more limited than Leo's

Junkyard Tom · 26-01-2018 1:36am

piplip87 wrote: »

Leos approval rating in a large part is down to his handling of Brexit. Irish people love sticking it to the Brits and DUP.

Sticking it to the Brits? I don't understand how anyone could describe not wanting a return to a hard border, and the possible downstream dam-bursts it could cause, as anything other than looking after Ireland's interests.

As for the DUP? Well if you're heading in the opposite direction to that bunch of nutcases you're going in the right direction.

FrancieBrady · 26-01-2018 7:58am

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Sticking it to the Brits? I don't understand how anyone could describe not wanting a return to a hard border, and the possible downstream dam-bursts it could cause, as anything other than looking after Ireland's interests.

As for the DUP? Well if you're heading in the opposite direction to that bunch of nutcases you're going in the right direction.

Absolutely, he was a FG Taoiseach doing his job on the north for once.

Only good that came out of that is that he and any other Taoiseach can see if they do that job there are votes/popularity in it.
Not what the incentive should be but small mercies and all that!

Fann Linn · 26-01-2018 8:13am

This is a poll which sees Leo on a high whilst his party drops 2 points.
There have been times in the past when Gerry Adams and Eamonn Gilmore have also held that mantle.

Wheeliebin30 · 26-01-2018 8:13am

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Absolutely, he was a FG Taoiseach doing his job on the north for once.

Only good that came out of that is that he and any other Taoiseach can see if they do that job there are votes/popularity in it.
Not what the incentive should be but small mercies and all that!

Oh he was only doing it for the north and not the people of the south now?

And the only good is it shows there is votes??

Salty salty.

FrancieBrady · 26-01-2018 8:21am

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

Oh he was only doing it for the north and not the people of the south now?

And the only good is it shows there is votes??

Salty salty.

No Wheelie, he was doing it for ALL the people, including the unionist people.

The proper function of any Irish Taoiseach imo.

Wheeliebin30 · 26-01-2018 8:24am

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No Wheelie, he was doing it for ALL the people, including the unionist people.

The proper function of any Irish Taoiseach imo.

He was doing his job on the north AND south.

FrancieBrady · 26-01-2018 8:39am

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

He was doing his job on the north AND south.

Yes, that is what I said.

Jawgap · 26-01-2018 9:29am

A bit of a triumph of style over substance. Napoleon would have loved him - he might be a good Taoiseach, but he's also lucky.

My own view is that his approval rating is based not so much anything he's done and more on stuff he's avoided doing, all the while having a nice profile built that suits the social media world we now inhabit.

Getting some criticism from the little-Englander type Brits and the DUP certainly helped broaden his appeal and maybe caused some of those who might be indifferent to be more disposed towards him. Getting that kind of criticism while also winding up SF is a pretty neat trick

On the plus side, it probably reduces even more the likelihood of an election - would FF risk the wrath of the electorate by pulling the plug? I sincerely doubt it. Which is a bit of change from a couple of months ago when plenty were predicting a Christmas GE. The fact that satisfaction with the government is also running at 44% (the highest since FG came to power in 2011) and that 58% of voters think the country is “generally going in the right direction” (34% disagree) reduces further the prospect of an election, imo.

It'll be interesting to see what knocks that rating (inevitably it will fall from such unsustainable heights) - maybe something from the Disclosures Tribunal? Until then, as long as he keeps the course on Brexit, keeps a lid on the bed crisis and keeps up the losing effort on housing he's probably in an unassailable position. He may even ride the wave of accelerating economic improvement to eclipse Bertie's rating.

splinter65 · 26-01-2018 9:37am

blanch152 wrote: »

That is wishful thinking on your part.

Varadkar recognises that to be in government now a vote of 35-38% makes it nearly impossible for a government to be formed without him. Therefore he doesn't need to appeal to the country in the main, he only needs to appeal to a certain constituency.

It is a bit like the way that SF and AAA/PBP only appeal to a limited audience. Unfotunately for them, their audience is much more limited than Leo's

Spot on. Because left leaning politicians and left leaning issues get such a lot of air time on main stream media their supporters are inclined to think that they are in the majority, whereas in actual fact they are a niche group who are always shocked when traditional parties achieve power yet again.

blanch152 · 26-01-2018 10:48am

Jawgap wrote: »

A bit of a triumph of style over substance. Napoleon would have loved him - he might be a good Taoiseach, but he's also lucky.

My own view is that his approval rating is based not so much anything he's done and more on stuff he's avoided doing, all the while having a nice profile built that suits the social media world we now inhabit.

Getting some criticism from the little-Englander type Brits and the DUP certainly helped broaden his appeal and maybe caused some of those who might be indifferent to be more disposed towards him. Getting that kind of criticism while also winding up SF is a pretty neat trick

On the plus side, it probably reduces even more the likelihood of an election - would FF risk the wrath of the electorate by pulling the plug? I sincerely doubt it. Which is a bit of change from a couple of months ago when plenty were predicting a Christmas GE. The fact that satisfaction with the government is also running at 44% (the highest since FG came to power in 2011) and that 58% of voters think the country is “generally going in the right direction” (34% disagree) reduces further the prospect of an election, imo.

It'll be interesting to see what knocks that rating (inevitably it will fall from such unsustainable heights) - maybe something from the Disclosures Tribunal? Until then, as long as he keeps the course on Brexit, keeps a lid on the bed crisis and keeps up the losing effort on housing he's probably in an unassailable position. He may even ride the wave of accelerating economic improvement to eclipse Bertie's rating.

It is clear that Varadkar has charm and charisma that are certainly lacking in Martin and Mcdonald. In the past, this worked for the likes of Ahern and Haughey, even though they were corrupt and had incompetent policies. Arguably, they achieved a substantial voting bonus for FF because of it.

It will be interesting to see whether Varadkar can do the same for FG. He will be excused for his gaffes and so long as he has half-decent policies and avoids any whiff of corruption, I think he could increase the FG vote during a campaign when the advantage of charisma comes to the fore.

Jawgap · 26-01-2018 11:11am

blanch152 wrote: »

It is clear that Varadkar has charm and charisma that are certainly lacking in Martin and Mcdonald. In the past, this worked for the likes of Ahern and Haughey, even though they were corrupt and had incompetent policies. Arguably, they achieved a substantial voting bonus for FF because of it.

It will be interesting to see whether Varadkar can do the same for FG. He will be excused for his gaffes and so long as he has half-decent policies and avoids any whiff of corruption, I think he could increase the FG vote during a campaign when the advantage of charisma comes to the fore.

It's interesting, but Aherne's schtick was his whole "man-of-de-people" routine, whereas Haughey and Varadkar are very much men of their own people and no one else! The last thing they'd want is contact with the proles!!!

I've seen Aherne and Haughey up close and talk about two wildly opposites being equally popular - at one community event attended by both (obviously in different years) I remember Aherne walking up to it (with the Merc tucked safely out of site around the corner) whereas as Haughey arrived up with a Garda car leading the way and handlers clearing the way!

I think the only truth in all these polls is that we're a fickle bunch!

Leo is the new king of Ireland.

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