Leo is the new king of Ireland.

Chips Lovell

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Edward M

More good news for Leo. An eleven point gap back to FF and SF down too. It must be Leo as FG haven't changed much else?
Everyone and his mother knew MLMD was going to the new SF leader during this period, a bad bounce for SF in this one.
https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0217/941505-poll-sunday-times/

McMurphy

Edward M wrote: »

More good news for Leo. An eleven point gap back to FF and SF down too. It must be Leo as FG haven't changed much else?
Everyone and his mother knew MLMD was going to the new SF leader during this period, a bad bounce for SF in this one.
https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0217/941505-poll-sunday-times/

These polls are pretty meaningless.

If we are to take them at face value - then SF have enjoyed a 4 point bounce since yours was published.

Compared to the last comparable survey in January, the findings show Fine Gael is up four points to 36% while Fianna F is down one point to 25%.

Sinn F is down two points at 16%.

The Labour Party is down one point to 5% while Independents are unchanged at 9%.

The Independent Alliance is also unchanged at 4% and Solidarity/People Before Profit is up one point to 3%.

The Social Democrats are unchanged at 1%, while the Green Party is down one point to 1%.

Also released on the same date. https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/poll-shows-strong-support-in-favour-of-abortion-referendum-but-12-week-proposal-splits-public-36615455.html

Fine Gael (36pc) up six points since July;
Fianna Fail (28pc) down one point;
Sinn Fein (20pc) unchanged; Labour (4pc) down three points;
Greens (2pc) unchanged;
Independents/others (11pc) down two points

FrancieBrady

Edward M wrote: »

More good news for Leo. An eleven point gap back to FF and SF down too. It must be Leo as FG haven't changed much else?
Everyone and his mother knew MLMD was going to the new SF leader during this period, a bad bounce for SF in this one.
https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0217/941505-poll-sunday-times/

36% is hardly 'good news'. Enda was at 39% shortly after his leadership began.

Phoebas

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

These polls are pretty meaningless.

However meaningful the actual polls are, comparing the results of two different polls from different polling organisations is certainly meaningless.

I wouldn't get too excited (or downhearted) at any one poll What you really need to be looking at is the overall trend.

Jawgap

It's quite funny.......SF decline in the polls and the polls are meaningless.

Wasn't too long ago when they were riding high in the polls and then they were talking about being in power in both jurisdictions, and having rock star Ministers of Finance!

The polls generally are meaningless - they're just a snapshot and as election after election have shown, the issues that end up mattering are rarely addressed in polls.

Sleeper12

It really shows how much Enda Kenny held them back. In the poles.

McMurphy

Phoebas wrote: »

However meaningful the actual polls are, comparing the results of two different polls from different polling organisations is certainly meaningless.

I wouldn't get too excited (or downhearted) at any one poll What you really need to be looking at is the overall trend.

I wasn't comparing them, I was pointing out the inconsistencies in polls released on the same day.

The poster posted one polls results - I showed how they varied poll to poll.

Meaningless.

Leonard Hofstadter

Jawgap wrote: »

It's quite funny.......SF decline in the polls and the polls are meaningless.

Wasn't too long ago when they were riding high in the polls and then they were talking about being in power in both jurisdictions, and having rock star Ministers of Finance!

The polls generally are meaningless - they're just a snapshot and as election after election have shown, the issues that end up mattering are rarely addressed in polls.

One poll on its own is completely meaningless.

It's a bunch of polls and the general trend that matters.

And... from a FG point of view, the polls are good news, FG are polling much better since Leo took over, especially in the past 2-3 months.

I truthfully thought the initial 'bounce' for FG was as a result of Leo and Simon's stance on the border, but that bounce has sustained itself.

Therefore we must conclude that FG is well ahead of FF, who in turn are comfortably ahead of SF.

Now maybe Mary Lou will bring SF up in time - let's not forget when Leo took over FG got no bounce at all (an increase within the margin of error is not what I'd call a bounce), but all we know is that so far, the change of leadership has made no difference whatsoever to their polling numbers.

Of course, if there was an election, anything can happen - we all know how FG managed to snap defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016 - they started on 30-32% (depending on the poll you chose to believe) but ended up with 25.5%. But even if FG were to have a crap campaign (not impossible knowing what FG are like but Leo is a far more accomplished media performer than Enda plus the public like him and Enda had neither of those things, so I think it's less likely) they should still end up with at least 30-31% of the vote.

But if FG managed to hold onto 36%, or even get 33-34% (a result I would still think is astonishing after 7 years in Government), that would very much put them in the driving seat for a new Government. Hell, we might even get a majority Government and put the country first.

Phoebas

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

I wasn't comparing them, I was pointing out the inconsistencies in polls released on the same day.

The poster posted one polls results - I showed how they varied poll to poll.

Meaningless.

Absolutely - you shouldn't be trying to compare different polls with different methodologies.

LambDev

I'm 22 and for whatever reason, FG are not popular among my friends group. I'm the only FG supporter I know of.

Hopefully young people move from the nutcases on the left, to mire reliable mainstream parties.

Jawgap

captainspeed wrote: »

One poll on its own is completely meaningless.

It's a bunch of polls and the general trend that matters.

And... from a FG point of view, the polls are good news, FG are polling much better since Leo took over, especially in the past 2-3 months.

I truthfully thought the initial 'bounce' for FG was as a result of Leo and Simon's stance on the border, but that bounce has sustained itself.

Therefore we must conclude that FG is well ahead of FF, who in turn are comfortably ahead of SF.

Now maybe Mary Lou will bring SF up in time - let's not forget when Leo took over FG got no bounce at all (an increase within the margin of error is not what I'd call a bounce), but all we know is that so far, the change of leadership has made no difference whatsoever to their polling numbers.

Of course, if there was an election, anything can happen - we all know how FG managed to snap defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016 - they started on 30-32% (depending on the poll you chose to believe) but ended up with 25.5%. But even if FG were to have a crap campaign (not impossible knowing what FG are like but Leo is a far more accomplished media performer than Enda plus the public like him and Enda had neither of those things, so I think it's less likely) they should still end up with at least 30-31% of the vote.

But if FG managed to hold onto 36%, or even get 33-34% (a result I would still think is astonishing after 7 years in Government), that would very much put them in the driving seat for a new Government. Hell, we might even get a majority Government and put the country first.

The problem SF have is that their coronation of the new leader led to no clash of ideas - no competing positions were advanced, discussed and reconciled as might normally happen in a proper political party. They just have dogma with the responsibility for applying that dogma now handed on to a new figurehead.

The best thing about the polls is that it limits the probability we'll be faced with an election any time soon - or it increases the imperative for FF to be extra Machiavellian when trying to trigger one!

James Brown

LambDev wrote: »

I'm 22 and for whatever reason, FG are not popular among my friends group. I'm the only FG supporter I know of.

Hopefully young people move from the nutcases on the left, to mire reliable mainstream parties.

FF are reliable (same as ever) and we certainly know the character of FG. *With over one quarter of TD''s landlords during a housing crises, maybe we need 'nutcases'? The idea that knowing what you're getting how ever poor quality being preferable is what has us where we are, have been and likely will be.

* (This week):
Register shows extensive property and outside interests of TDs
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/register-shows-extensive-property-and-outside-interests-of-tds-1.3392449?mode=amp

Wheeliebin30

LambDev wrote: »

I'm 22 and for whatever reason, FG are not popular among my friends group. I'm the only FG supporter I know of.

Hopefully young people move from the nutcases on the left, to mire reliable mainstream parties.

Once responsibility of a family etc comes around most people see sense with regards to the left.

Wheeliebin30

Matt Barrett wrote: »

FF are reliable (same as ever) and we certainly know the character of FG. With over one quarter of TD''s landlords during a housing crises, maybe we need 'nutcases'? The idea that knowing what your getting how ever poor quality being preferable is what has is where we are, have been and likely will be.

Yeah thats why landlords are exiting the market at a quicker rate than in years.

The government have made it impossible for landlords.

James Brown

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

Yeah thats why landlords are exiting the market at a quicker rate than in years.

The government have made it impossible for landlords.

Tell that to TD's.
The point is these people are profiting from a public crises. A fact often ignored by people happy to wallow in the economic myth of a growing econony meaning prosperity for all.
Look at FF and how their current popularity is seen as a win against 'the left'. That's a poor narrative for the country. Explains the polls mind.

Anyone but Man UTD de left :rolleyes:

Wheeliebin30

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Tell that to TD's.
The point is these people are profiting from a public crises. A fact often ignored by people happy to wallow in the economic myth of a growing econony meaning prosperity for all.
Look at FF and how their current popularity is seen as a win against 'the left'. That's a poor narrative for the country. Explains the polls mind.

Anyone but Man UTD de left :rolleyes:

How are they profiting from a public crisis?

Every country in the world has people who rent accommodation.

Shock horror ay.

Water John

Captain, What we know in this country is that, majority one party government doesn't, put the country first. It puts the party first.
A single party FG Govn't, wouldn't be any better than a FF one.

Sadly,in this Govn't, the only independent Minister, worth their place is, Katherine Zappone.

There is only one King in Ireland and that's the King of Tory Island.

Jawgap

LambDev wrote: »

I'm 22 and for whatever reason, FG are not popular among my friends group. I'm the only FG supporter I know of.

Hopefully young people move from the nutcases on the left, to mire reliable mainstream parties.

Unfortunately, I think the problem for your age group is that you don't vote in enough numbers - turnout in the 18 to 25 age group is about 15% behind the average turnout and up to 25 to 30% behind the 55-65 and 65+ age groups.

And that's kind of the problem for SF, PBP, Solidarity etc - they draw for support on young, urban males - which is precisely the group least likely to vote.

charlie14

Phoebas wrote: »

Absolutely - you shouldn't be trying to compare different polls with different methodologies.

I cannot see why they would use different methodologies or why it results in different findings.
Surely their aim is to give an indication of the first preference votes per party or individual.
It`s not as if there are different methodologies used in polling stations or count centers.

They are nothing much more than an entertainment article to sell newspapers imo.
Where they should perhaps have some relevance is in the final days of an election campaign as an indicator.
Even then they are pretty much rubbish as we have seen from as recent as the 2016 GE.

McMurphy

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

Once responsibility of a family etc comes around most people see sense with regards to the left.

Define 'most' - and explain the FG minority govt.

Also, it may have escaped your mind, but we got into the proverbial creek we where in not because of any left government party's.

Worth pointing that out.

Wheeliebin30

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

Define 'most' - and explain the FG minority govt.

Also, it may have escaped your mind, but we got into the proverbial creek we where in not because of any left government party's.

Worth pointing that out.

FF behaving like a left party and people lapping it up was the reason.

smurgen

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Tell that to TD's.
The point is these people are profiting from a public crises. A fact often ignored by people happy to wallow in the economic myth of a growing econony meaning prosperity for all.
Look at FF and how their current popularity is seen as a win against 'the left'. That's a poor narrative for the country. Explains the polls mind.

Anyone but Man UTD de left :rolleyes:

How are they profiting from a public crisis?

Every country in the world has people who rent accommodation.

Shock horror ay.

Sub standard accomodation at over inflated prices.also blank cheques for housing families in emergency accomodation.i.believe these issues will explode in fg's face.wait until rent hits 2,500 a month in dublin and we'll see how loved fg are.

Jawgap

smurgen wrote: »

Sub standard accomodation at over inflated prices.also blank cheques for housing families in emergency accomodation.i.believe these issues will explode in fg's face.wait until rent hits 2,500 a month in dublin and we'll see how loved fg are.

Doubt it because there is nothing to suggest that any of the other parties have any other ideas on how to deal with the issue beyond throwing shed loads of money at it.

My own view, having previously worked in public procurement, is that if you think the private sector providing housing is expensive, wait until the local authorities start building then you'll see expensive!!

Plus, Dublin is Dublin - it's always going to be pricey and the fact remains those type of rents don't apply across all of the the city and even if they did they'd only impact a tiny minority of voters.

People care about what's in their pockets - that'll determine how they vote.

McMurphy

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

Once responsibility of a family etc comes around most people see sense with regards to the left.

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

FF behaving like a left party and people lapping it up was the reason.

They completely contradict each other, did you realise that?

Wheeliebin30

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

They completely contradict each other, did you realise that?

Not at all.

People have seen the error in giveaway leftie budgets after the recession.

FF have realised this too and people are slowly starting to trust them again.

Lets hope they learned their lesson.

McMurphy

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

Not at all.

People have seen the error in giveaway leftie budgets after the recession.

FF have realised this too and people are slowly starting to trust them again.

Lets hope they learned their lesson.

Sorry, I thought you initially said most people saw sense with regards to the left.

I asked you to explain (if this was the case) why FG had to make do with a minority government.

You replied that it was down to FF behaving like a left party, (you even said that was the reason) which obviously cancels out your theory of people seeing sense.

You can't have it both ways.

Also (for clarity) FG lost 27 seats in 2016.

FF (behaving like a left party) gained 25 seats.

Fairly confusing.

LambDev

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

Sorry, I thought you initially said most people saw sense with regards to the left.

I asked you to explain (if this was the case) why FG had to make do with a minority government.

You replied that it was down to FF behaving like a left party, (you even said that was the reason) which obviously cancels out your theory of people seeing sense.

You can't have it both ways.

Also (for clarity) FG lost 27 seats in 2016.

FF (behaving like a left party) gained 25 seats.

Fairly confusing.

FG lost 16*

McMurphy

LambDev wrote: »

FG lost 16*

2011 FG won 76 seats.
2016 FG won 49 seats.

76
-
49
__
=27

Wheeliebin30

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

Sorry, I thought you initially said most people saw sense with regards to the left.

I asked you to explain (if this was the case) why FG had to make do with a minority government.

You replied that it was down to FF behaving like a left party, (you even said that was the reason) which obviously cancels out your theory of people seeing sense.

You can't have it both ways.

Also (for clarity) FG lost 27 seats in 2016.

FF (behaving like a left party) gained 25 seats.

Fairly confusing.

What?

I never replied about the minority government.

Im saying FF behaving like a left wing party bust the country and they were voted out for this.

Now they are slowly gaining people's trust again in not behaving like a left wing party anymore.